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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/21/2010
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$121.48; -0.69; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
After Hours: $121.48
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Flag. Good February to April rally, then an 8 week consolidation in something of a reverse head and shoulders. Excellent break higher just over a week back followed by the current week long lateral move to the 10 day EMA, punctuated by a surge last Wednesday that failed. Still solid and if ICE can break the ice and move higher through the buy point, holding the gain toward the close, we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ICE.wmv
Volume: 712.235K Avg Volume: 993.553K
BUY POINT: $123.68 Volume=1.4M Target=$139.74 Stop=$119.78
POSITION: ICE 10I120.00 - Sept. $120c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/21/2010
UTI (Universal Technical Institute--$25.08; -0.08; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uti.html
After Hours: $25.08
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Nice rally from February to late March, then UTI started to sell faster than the rest of the market. It simply was getting a head start on its pattern a 12 week reverse head and shoulders. Used the 200 day SMA on the low to form the head. Spent a few weeks forming the right shoulder, then last week rallied up to the neckline, working laterally. Friday UTI broke higher on strong trade, gapped again Monday, but then reversed it all. May test a bit more but like what it is showing and still ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/UTI.wmv
Volume: 147.795K Avg Volume: 152.517K
BUY POINT: $25.31 Volume=225K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.57
POSITION: UTI 10J25.00 - Oct. $25c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/22/2010
WBMD (WebMD Health Holdings--$47.54; -0.39; optionable): Internet health information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbmd.html
After Hours: $47.54
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Flag. After a good February to April run WBMD tested, and over the past 9 weeks has consolidated, forming a reverse head and shoulders from may to mid-August. Broke higher just over a week back, then a nice, easy pullback the past week on low volume to the 10 day EMA. Excellent test of near support is setting up a new move higher. If WBMD can bounce and make the move stick we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WBMD.wmv
Volume: 86.352K Avg Volume: 334.511K
BUY POINT: $48.42 Volume=450K Target=$54.95 Stop=$46.44
POSITION: WBMD 10I45.00 - Sept. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
Downside: If the bounce fails . . .
Play Date: 06/21/2010
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$111.41; -0.32; optionable)
After Hours: $111.60
STATUS: SPY gapped higher with the market Monday and then reversed it all to close negative. It did manage to hold the 200 day SMA (111.29) on the close after undercutting it intraday. That shows some support there, BUT if SPY breaks below that level and holds it toward the close we are ready to move in. A move to the targ4et from the buy point lands a 56%ish gain on the put options.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SPY.wmv
Volume: 213.141M Avg Volume: 259.572M
BUY POINT: $111.08 Volume=28M Target=$106.00 Stop=$112.68
POSITION: SPY 10T112.00 - Aug. $112p (-48 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS IN POSITION:
Play Date: 06/16/2010
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$57.89; +1.67; optionable): Steel and iron, catalysts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $57.80
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped up and continued to run higher, but just could not stick the entire move higher. The gap up did put CLF over the 50 day EMA though, and it held that level into the finish. This leaves the stock in prime position to bounce off the support to give us the buy. To recap: Looking at CLF as it starts to form a handle to a double bottom formed off the 200 day SMA by the late May and early June lows. CLF rallied back up to the late May reflex peak on Monday and stalled, working laterally the past two sessions, holding over the 50 day EMA. Volume dried up as it has moved laterally, not bad action as it shows no one interest in getting rid of their stock. CLF may test laterally Thursday and Friday then start up next week. It may go ahead and start up Thursday. Good pattern, and all we have to do is be patient and let it show us the renewed upside break and we move in for a run back up toward the bottom of the April range.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLF.wmv
Volume: 8.187M Avg Volume: 8.175M
BUY POINT: $58.28 Volume=10M Target=$69.94 Stop=$54.31
POSITION: CLF 10J57.50 - Oct. $57.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/15/2010
GTI (Graftech Intl.--$16.70; +0.10; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gti.html
After Hours: $16.70
EARNINGS: 07/29/2010
STATUS: Ascending base. After a short little pullback to end last week GTI tried to bounce to kick this week off. Not able to stick much of a move higher, but still in good shape over the light 10 day EMA support. Looking for the next bounce up to stick, so really watching closely as that could give us our entry. To recap: GTI spent the past six weeks forming this triangle with rising lows below a constant top: the higher and higher lows build the pressure for a breakout. This base formed on the heels of a late April breakout on its strong earnings. Unfortunately that broke GTI out of the prior cup base only to fall into the May selling. GTI held its own, however, using the selling to form this new base. GTI has rallied to the breakout point but volume has trailed off the past three sessions; very low trade indeed. Thus it may not make the breakout just yet; may pull back for a day or two, make a higher low, and then try the breakout once more. Whether it makes the break from here or tests is fine; we just want to see the move. On a breakout from here we are taking a partial. These patterns can deliver explosive moves but then they often come back and test. Thus we have some patience, see how it tests, and add when we see it has held and is moving back up.
Volume: 1.403M Avg Volume: 2.042M
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GTI.wmv
Volume: 1.101M Avg Volume: 2.042M
BUY POINT: $17.18 Volume=2.3M Target=$20.94 Stop=$15.98
POSITION: GTI 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/16/2010
PII (Polaris--$60.04; -0.81; optionable): ATV's, PWC's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $59.81
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: Flag. Gentle pullback last week and just continued with similar action Monday. A controlled fade on lighter trade held the 10 day EMA Monday, and the stock can easily bounce from there. It may hold for a day or so, but this one is very ready to bounce. To recap: After a good run through Friday with a gap higher Monday, PII is pausing, moving laterally, holding the modest Monday upside gap. This last move occurred off the second test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April run higher. A nice double bottom at that 50% level and the break higher over the 'hump' in the double bottom Now it is testing, and while it may take another day or two to finish (or it may jump back up Thursday), when PII makes the break higher we are looking to move in for a run up to the 127% Fibonacci extension just over 71.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 309.011K Avg Volume: 474.731K
BUY POINT: $62.31 Volume=650K Target=$71.00 Stop=$58.78
POSITION: PII 10I60.00 - Sept. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/20/2010
TRN (Trinity Industries--$21.40; +0.02; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trn.html
After Hours: $22.06
EARNINGS: 07/30/2010
STATUS: Triangle. This one took a nice little bounce higher to start things Monday, but faded back off the highs as the market slid. TRN is still sitting nicely on top of the 10 and 18 day EMA, so now we can watch to see if it sticks the next bounce up. Another stock with the February to late April run followed by the selling in the May pullback. Another good stock that found support at its 200 day SMA, forming a double bottom at that level. Bounced through the 50 day EMA to start last week, moved laterally in a tight range through Friday, and is in position to make the next break higher. Looking for a move through the buy point that holds toward the close to give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TRN.wmv
Volume: 558.209K Avg Volume: 1.225M
BUY POINT: $21.87 Volume=1.4M Target=$26.98 Stop=$20.76
POSITION: TRN 10J20.00 - Oct. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/16/2010
WBSN (Websense--$21.02; +0.39; optionable): Web security, filtering solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
After Hours: $21.02
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. This one almost got us to pull the trigger Monday. Almost. As the market was fading back it was best to hold off even though WBSN held a gain into the finish. If this one holds flat, or fades towards the 18 day EMA and bounces, we look to move in as it hits our buy and holds. To recap: WBSN broke out in February, clearing the January peak as well as the highs from 2009. That breakout rallied WBSN through late April and earnings. Earnings were not all that kind and sent WBSN lower, indeed over the course of May and June WBSN gave back the gains on the breakout. Last week it tested the January high and undercut it slightly, but it held at the rising 200 day SMA and immediately jumped back over the January peak. Good volume the past three sessions as WBSN works laterally. A very good risk/reward position for the stock as it undercut that January peak but immediately recovered; could be something of a false breakdown. Looking for WBSN to use this volume to make the break higher. If it can make the move through the buy point and make it stick we are looking to move in. A good risk/reward position with plenty of upside and a close support point.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WBSN.wmv
Volume: 564.469K Avg Volume: 501.618K
BUY POINT: $20.78 Volume=650K Target=$24.11 Stop=$19.34
POSITION: WBSN 10J20.00 - Oct. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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