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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
NOTE: PART 1 WILL BE FORWARDED FOLLOWING PART 3.
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/23/2010
FNSR (Finisar--$15.87; +0.43; optionable): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnsr.html
After Hours: $15.71
EARNINGS: 09/10/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Great run from February to mid-April. Period. Then in the May selling it formed a 10 week base, consolidating that run and now setting up a great looking buy. FNSR rallied to start June, started peaking a week ago, forming the handle just over the 'hump' in the pattern. Wednesday FNSR opened lower but rebounded for a solid gain on rising, above average volume. The buyers were stepping back in. Looks as if FNSR is close to the breakout with this rising volume on the upside. If FNSR can move through the buy point and hold it, that is our buy trigger.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FNSR.wmv
Volume: 1.892M Avg Volume: 1.855M
BUY POINT: $16.15 Volume=2.2M Target=$18.94 Stop=$14.96
POSITION: FNSR 10L15.00 - Dec. $15c (66 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
LULU (Lululemon Athletica--$41.98; +0.51; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lulu.html
After Hours: $42.00
EARNINGS: 09/06/2010
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. LULU is one of those retailers with the momentum such as DECK. Strong run through April then the May selling. As with other leaders it used May's weakness to form a new base. In doing so it filled the March gap higher (earnings gap), putting in something of a double bottom. Nice upside break in June, moving on strong upside volume as the buyers stepped back in. It is now testing, coming back to the 50 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounding to positive. Like the action and it looks as if LULU can make a bounce from here and hold the move we are ready to move into positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LULU.wmv
Volume: 1.812M Avg Volume: 1.501M
BUY POINT: $42.57 Volume=2M Target=$48.94 Stop=$39.77
POSITION: LULU 10L40.00 - Dec. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
SHAW (The Shaw Group--$36.29; -0.58; optionable): Heavy construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shaw.html
After Hours: $36.35
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice rally from November 2009 into late April. Of course with that move SHAW was primed for a base in the May pullback. That is exactly what it did, selling back to the 200 day SMA on the low, rallying back up the past three weeks. Not a bad 8 week base, not bad at all. SHAW gapped higher Monday to a peak on this run then spent Tuesday and Wednesday testing back but holding near support at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday close. May take another day or so to finish the handle, and when it makes the upside break through the buy point and can hold it into the close that is our trigger to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SHAW.wmv
Volume: 826.945K Avg Volume: 985.151K
BUY POINT: $36.77 Volume=1.3M Target=$42.25 Stop=$34.97
POSITION: SHAW 10J35.00 - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$85.77; +1.32; optionable): Resorts and Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $85.81
EARNINGS: 07/30/2010
STATUS: Test breakout. WYNN formed a 7 week triangle/pennant to consolidate the March to May run, breaking out the second week of June. Not a massive breakout, but a clear move from the pattern, and now WYNN is testing that move, holding the 10 day EMA near support as it does. Going to be patient and if WYNN can hold here and make a sharp break higher on better volume, holding the move toward the close, that is our trigger to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WYNN.wmv
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 3.256M
BUY POINT: $86.91 Volume=4M Target=$99.95 Stop=$81.69
POSITION: WYNN 10I85.00 - Sept. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/16/2010
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$56.30; +0.42; optionable): Steel and iron, catalysts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $56.14
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/ handle. Fell for two sessions, then started lower again early on Wednesday. Managed a nice reversal off the lows to form a doji over the 10 and 18 day EMA, though, and that is very nice to see. A great place to turn higher, so now we can wait to see if it does just that. To recap: Looking at CLF as it starts to form a handle to a double bottom formed off the 200 day SMA by the late May and early June lows. CLF rallied back up to the late May reflex peak on Monday and stalled, working laterally the past two sessions, holding over the 50 day EMA. Volume dried up as it has moved laterally, not bad action as it shows no one interest in getting rid of their stock. CLF may test laterally Thursday and Friday then start up next week. It may go ahead and start up Thursday. Good pattern, and all we have to do is be patient and let it show us the renewed upside break and we move in for a run back up toward the bottom of the April range.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLF.wmv
Volume: 5.88M Avg Volume: 8.214M
BUY POINT: $58.28 Volume=10M Target=$69.94 Stop=$54.31
POSITION: CLF 10J57.50 - Oct. $57.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/14/2010
DLM (Del Monte Foods--$14.94; +0.46; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlm.html
After Hours: $14.80
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Flag. A controlled pullback formed over the past week and a half, slipping just under the 50 day EMA the past couple of days. A strong bounce back Wednesday on solid trade really got this one going. Now if it can continue, we look at picking it up. To recap: You have to eat no matter what the economic conditions. After a solid March through late April surge that tested toward a 10 year high, DLM tested back through early last week, bracketing the 50 day EMA as it tested. Surged higher starting Tuesday, picking up some big volume Thursday as it gapped to the April peak. Testing back Friday and Monday, holding over the 10 day EMA as it does. Might take another day or two to test, but a very nice setup to make the next break higher. Want to see a move through the buy point on more solid trade.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DLM.wmv
Volume: 3.215M Avg Volume: 1.944M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: DLM 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
DTG (Dollar Thrifty Auto Group--$43.71; +0.14; optionable): Auto rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtg.html
After Hours: $43.57
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Pennant. Fell for two sessions down to the 50 day EMA, and has now formed a doji at that support Wednesday. Primed to bounce, and now if it can do it in the next couple of days and continue, we may get a buy out of it. To recap: DTG made us some excellent coin this year. Over the past 5 weeks it has formed series of lower highs but has constant lows at the late April gap up point, now coincident with the rising 50 day EMA. Very solid pattern and a very nice test is setting up the next move. If that move is a break upside on some volume, moving through the 18 day EMA, we are ready to enter for a continued rally after this very nice consolidation.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DTG.wmv
Volume: 898.524K Avg Volume: 1.302M
BUY POINT: $45.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$52.24 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: DTG 10J45.00 - Oct. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/21/2010
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$117.52; -1.89; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
After Hours: $117.52
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Flag. Another step back to continue the testing, but bounced off the lows to hold the 50 day EMA. Nice support that ICE has bounced from already this month, so likely it does so this time around. When it can show the upside that holds, it is our cue to buy. To recap: Good February to April rally, then an 8 week consolidation in something of a reverse head and shoulders. Excellent break higher just over a week back followed by the current week long lateral move to the 10 day EMA, punctuated by a surge last Wednesday that failed. Still solid and if ICE can break the ice and move higher through the buy point, holding the gain toward the close, we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ICE.wmv
Volume: 685.958K Avg Volume: 988.528K
BUY POINT: $123.68 Volume=1.4M Target=$139.74 Stop=$119.78
POSITION: ICE 10I120.00 - Sept. $120c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/20/2010
JOYG (Joy Global--$55.63; +0.27; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $55.50
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. On Wednesday this one showed a long intraday reach down to the coinciding 18 and 50 day EMA, and then bounced back to form a doji. Held the pre-gap point from last Friday, and the stock now has a nice place to spring up from. If it does bounce, we are ready. To recap: JOYG is in a short flag as it tests the breakout from a 6 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Good volume on the upside break and now a test back to near support over the 10 day EMA. Nice break higher, and this easy test is giving us the opportunity to move in. Just want to see it hold then make the break higher and hold that move into the close. That is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOYG.wmv
Volume: 2.029M Avg Volume: 2.975M
BUY POINT: $56.23 Volume=4M Target=$63.62 Stop=$53.77
POSITION: JOYG 10J55.00 - Oct. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$86.21; +1.21; optionable): Foreign telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
After Hours: $85.86
EARNINGS: 07/20/2010
STATUS: After a brief test back to start this week, MICC bounced nicely Wednesday. Could not stick to the buy point with the lighter trade, but still in great position if it can continue. If it can keep working Thursday, we look at buying it. To recap: A strong stock that we like to play when it sets up, MICC is currently posting a short flag pattern after a nice rally off a 200 day SMA test. It put in the 'typical' rally from February through April seen in most quality stocks and then got the May dips. It held the 200 day SMA twice, however, during this 9 week pullback, forming something of a cup with handle. After that rally off the 200 day this month MICC is testing back to the 50 day EMA (84.30), a logical support level. We will watch and see if MICC can hold around this support and then deliver a solid move upside on some rising volume (below average trade the past two weeks). If it can break the buy point and hold it to the close we are looking to move in and catch a run toward 100 by this solid stock.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MICC.wmv
Volume: 363.49K Avg Volume: 645.423K
BUY POINT: $86.48 Volume=800K Target=$99.89 Stop=$83.81
POSITION: MICC 10J85.40 - Oct. $85.40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$27.55; -0.12; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $27.55
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. Has tested the first three days of this week, and gave a nice reach down to the 18 day EMA Wednesday that rebounded back into the finish. Looks very ready for a move higher after this action, so we watch to see if it can take that shot higher to hit our buy in the next day or two. To recap: NVLS was one of those chip stocks that took off like a shot in early June, exploding off something of a triple bottom in that May pullback/selloff in the market. Kind of a ragged cup, but it worked for NVLS and it exploded higher last week to a new rally high. This week it is testing, sliding back toward the 10 day EMA and the April peak (marking the top of NVLS' run since its 2009 low) on nice, low volume. Unlike the market overall, NVLS' run upside was on solid, above average trade and thus this pullback shows few sellers, just some profit taking. Looking for NVLS to hold in the 10 day EMA range (27.45) and post the rebound for a continued breakout move. That is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NVLS.wmv
Volume: 2.61M Avg Volume: 3.509M
BUY POINT: $27.96 Volume=4.2M Target=$32.00 Stop=$27.21
POSITION: NVLS 10I27.00 - Sept. $27c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/16/2010
PII (Polaris--$58.09; -0.35; optionable): ATV's, PWC's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $58.44
EARNINGS: 07/20/2010
STATUS: Flag. A nice pullback this week, but now holding at the 50 day EMA with a doji. A great hold at support, and this one is ready to bounce. We wait for it to get some traction, and then buy it when it holds the move higher to our buy point. To recap: After a good run through Friday with a gap higher Monday, PII is pausing, moving laterally, holding the modest Monday upside gap. This last move occurred off the second test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April run higher. A nice double bottom at that 50% level and the break higher over the 'hump' in the double bottom Now it is testing, and while it may take another day or two to finish (or it may jump back up Thursday), when PII makes the break higher we are looking to move in for a run up to the 127% Fibonacci extension just over 71.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 298.657K Avg Volume: 473.495K
BUY POINT: $59.88 Volume=650K Target=$71.00 Stop=$57.48
POSITION: PII 10I60.00 - Sept. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/22/2010
WBMD (WebMD Healgh Holdings--$47.06; -0.14; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbmd.html
After Hours: $47.13
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Flag. WBMD is still showing a picture perfect pullback, and is holding the 18 day EMA with a doji. It looks ready to bounce, and when it gives us that we see if it worth a buy. To recap: After a good February to April run WBMD tested, and over the past 9 weeks has consolidated, forming a reverse head and shoulders from may to mid-August. Broke higher just over a week back, then a nice, easy pullback the past week on low volume to the 10 day EMA. Excellent test of near support is setting up a new move higher. If WBMD can bounce and make the move stick we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WBMD.wmv
Volume: 149.038K Avg Volume: 331.091K
BUY POINT: $48.42 Volume=450K Target=$54.95 Stop=$46.44
POSITION: WBMD 10I45.00 - Sept. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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