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trade stock, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/24/2010
BHP (BHP Billiton--$67.98; -1.63; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html
After Hours: $67.99
EARNINGS: 08/25/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. BHP peaked in April and sold into May, making a second and double bottom in early June. BHP then rallied with the market, but a stronger move, taking it over the late May peak, the 'hump' in the double bottom formed off those twin lows. Monday BHP gapped over the 50 day EMA after a week long handle that formed just below that level. It is testing that gap now, tapping the 50 day on the Wednesday low and rallying to post a gain on rising, above average volume, the first above average trade in two weeks. Thursday it sold with the market, but volume was lower and the losses were modest relative to the market. If BHP rebounds and can hold the move through the buy point that is our trigger to enter for a run up to the March consolidation level.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BHP.wmv
Volume: 4.626M Avg Volume: 5.159M
BUY POINT: $70.11 Volume=6.2M Target=$78.94 Stop=$67.68
POSITION: BHP 10K70.00 - Nov. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/24/2010
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$97.23; -2.27; optionable): Chinese education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
After Hours: $97.23
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Flag/Breakout test. China has renewed strength and its stocks are leading. EDU rallied well from February to April where it peaked. It was not rolling over, however, instead forming a 10 week cup base. Broke out last week, rallied a bit further, and this week it is testing, coming back to the 18 day EMA on the Thursday close. Nice test of near support and you can call it a flag or a test. Nice hold and we expect a break higher but will be patient and let EDU show us the move. When it makes it we will step in as well.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/EDU.wmv
Volume: 395.053K Avg Volume: 332.503K
BUY POINT: $98.21 Volume=500K Target=$112.94 Stop=$95.31
POSITION: EDU 10J95.00 - Oct. $95c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/25/2010
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$26.09; -0.03; optionable): Coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
After Hours: $26.09
EARNINGS: 07/28/2010
STATUS: Flag. Tumbled lower in May after a strong run, based in May to early June forming a cup, and then rallied nicely the third week of June. This week it is testing, coming back to the 200 day SMA Wednesday and Thursday, showing a nice doji with tail, rebounding to hold the 200 day and 50 day EMA on the Thursday close. Excellent setup for a new move higher, and if GMCR can hold a move through the buy point on some better volume, it is a buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GMCR.wmv
Volume: 2.311M Avg Volume: 4.719M
BUY POINT: $26.42 Volume=5.5M Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.98
POSITION: GMCR 10L25.00 - Dec. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/25/2010
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$62.50; -1.88; optionable): Rural Home Depot
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
After Hours: $62.50
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Rolling. After gapping higher in early April, TSCO has established a three month trading range from the gap point to roughly 72. It is coming back for its third test of the gap point and while it could test a bit lower, the 62.50 level has been the support. Thus we are looking at a hold in this range and a start of a new move back to the upside. Pretty straightforward, and as TSCO moves through our buy point we move in for a roll back up in the range.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TSCO.wmv
Volume: 499.765K Avg Volume: 552.052K
BUY POINT: $63.11 Volume=800K Target=$70.97 Stop=$60.89
POSITION: TSCO 10J60.00 - Oct. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/14/2010
DLM (Del Monte Foods--$14.78; -0.16; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlm.html
After Hours: $14.78
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Flag. Off the highs to finish the day Thursday, but really not a bad way to follow up that Wednesday shot higher. The stock is testing lightly at the 50 day EMA, and when it can show the bounce back off this level we can think about buying it. To recap: You have to eat no matter what the economic conditions. After a solid March through late April surge that tested toward a 10 year high, DLM tested back through early last week, bracketing the 50 day EMA as it tested. Surged higher starting Tuesday, picking up some big volume Thursday as it gapped to the April peak. Testing back Friday and Monday, holding over the 10 day EMA as it does. Might take another day or two to test, but a very nice setup to make the next break higher. Want to see a move through the buy point on more solid trade.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DLM.wmv
Volume: 2.552M Avg Volume: 1.975M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: DLM 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
DTG (Dollar Thrifty Auto Group--$43.76; +0.05; optionable): Auto rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtg.html
After Hours: $43.76
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Pennant. This one held the 50 day EMA and early June levels for support again. Formed another nice doji at support, and is ready to start moving higher any day now. We simply wait for it to take that first step forward, then see if it can keep it up. To recap: DTG made us some excellent coin this year. Over the past 5 weeks it has formed series of lower highs but has constant lows at the late April gap up point, now coincident with the rising 50 day EMA. Very solid pattern and a very nice test is setting up the next move. If that move is a break upside on some volume, moving through the 18 day EMA, we are ready to enter for a continued rally after this very nice consolidation.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DTG.wmv
Volume: 564.284K Avg Volume: 1.305M
BUY POINT: $45.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$52.24 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: DTG 10J45.00 - Oct. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/20/2010
JOYG (Joy Global--$54.66; -0.97; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $54.66
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A short gap down Thursday, forming a very sweet doji over the 50 day EMA. This one is setting up solidly for the bounce, and with that we can wait on it to show something to the upside. Looks ready to move any day now. To recap: JOYG is in a short flag as it tests the breakout from a 6 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Good volume on the upside break and now a test back to near support over the 10 day EMA. Nice break higher, and this easy test is giving us the opportunity to move in. Just want to see it hold then make the break higher and hold that move into the close. That is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOYG.wmv
Volume: 2.785M Avg Volume: 2.963M
BUY POINT: $56.23 Volume=4M Target=$63.62 Stop=$53.77
POSITION: JOYG 10J55.00 - Oct. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa--$7.47; -0.11; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klic.html
After Hours: $7.47
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This stock has pulled back for four consecutive sessions, leaving it right at all kinds of support. It is holding the 50 day EMA, as well as February, March, and early April highs. It is showing a doji, and looks ready to jolt higher from this position. With a little patience, we will get a great buy on the bounce back. To recap: KLIC is another chip equipment stock that is setting up nicely for an upside move . . . as long as it can complete this current pattern and show us the goods, i.e. a breakout. Nice rally into April but it peaked and needed a base to rest. It has put in some good work, forming a double bottom at the 200 day SMA and then rallying over the past two weeks on some decent upside volume. The past week a lateral move to form the handle, and though Tuesday was a bit rocky in terms of how much it tested, it is still above the 18 day EMA and the February and March peaks, a logical support area for the handle test. Watching for KLIC to hold this general area and then make an upside break through the buy point that sticks to the close. If it can do that, and it may take another day or two or three, then we are ready to move in with the buy
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/KLIC.wmv
Volume: 1.074M Avg Volume: 2.19M
BUY POINT: $7.75 Volume=2.5M Target=$9.38 Stop=$7.21
POSITION: KLIC 10J7.50 - Oct. $7.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
LULU (Lululemon Athletica--$41.86; -0.12; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lulu.html
After Hours: $41.85
EARNINGS: 09/06/2010
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A great hold at the 50 day EMA Wednesday, and showed nearly identical action Thursday as it bounced up from the lows to form a doji. As this stock is just tapping the support level and snapping back up, it looks ready to leap off the starting block. If we just give it a chance to do so, it looks ready to give us a good buy very soon. To recap: LULU is one of those retailers with the momentum such as DECK. Strong run through April then the May selling. As with other leaders it used May's weakness to form a new base. In doing so it filled the March gap higher (earnings gap), putting in something of a double bottom. Nice upside break in June, moving on strong upside volume as the buyers stepped back in. It is now testing, coming back to the 50 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounding to positive. Like the action and it looks as if LULU can make a bounce from here and hold the move we are ready to move into positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LULU.wmv
Volume: 2.039M Avg Volume: 1.52M
BUY POINT: $42.57 Volume=2M Target=$48.94 Stop=$39.77
POSITION: LULU 10L40.00 - Dec. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/23/2010
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$86.00; -0.21; optionable): Foreign telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
After Hours: $86.00
EARNINGS: 07/20/2010
STATUS: Really tried to bounce Thursday just could not stick the gains. Still, the stock is showing life as it held the 10 day EMA and surged late in the day with better volume. If the stronger trade carries into Friday on a jump higher, we can look at buying it. To recap: A strong stock that we like to play when it sets up, MICC is currently posting a short flag pattern after a nice rally off a 200 day SMA test. It put in the 'typical' rally from February through April seen in most quality stocks and then got the May dips. It held the 200 day SMA twice, however, during this 9 week pullback, forming something of a cup with handle. After that rally off the 200 day this month MICC is testing back to the 50 day EMA (84.30), a logical support level. We will watch and see if MICC can hold around this support and then deliver a solid move upside on some rising volume (below average trade the past two weeks). If it can break the buy point and hold it to the close we are looking to move in and catch a run toward 100 by this solid stock.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MICC.wmv
Volume: 678.259K Avg Volume: 643.588K
BUY POINT: $86.48 Volume=800K Target=$99.89 Stop=$83.81
POSITION: MICC 10J85.40 - Oct. $85.40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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