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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/29/2010
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$60.88; -3.76; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
After Hours: $61.36
EARNINGS: 08/10/2010
STATUS: Rolling. This is CREE's fourth time to test 61 over the past two months. With the 200 day SMA (58.77) rising up below the bottom of this recent range. Sold yes, but volume was still below average. Will see how CREE manages to hold this support, and if it can again find its footing and start back up from this level we will look to move in if it can bounce and make the move stick. Looking for a move up to the mid-May gap point, the most obvious resistance outside of the prior high.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CREE.wmv
Volume: 2.73M Avg Volume: 3.467M
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$70.72 Stop=$58.87
POSITION: CREE 10I60.00 - Sept. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/29/2010
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$54.51; -1.17; optionable): Clothing stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $54.60
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Rolling. Looking at JOSB again as it sets up for an upside roll in its range. Strong February to April run and then the test, an up and down range with 55 as the bottom. Nice reach lower Tuesday undercutting the May and June lows, then snapping back on strong, above average volume. Watching for a roll back up in the range, and if JOSB can make the move and make it stick into the close, then we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOSB.wmv
Volume: 446.062K Avg Volume: 410.735K
BUY POINT: $55.43 Volume=500K Target=$63.74 Stop=$51.91
POSITION: JOSB 10J55.00 - Oct. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/29/2010
VMW (VMWare, Inc.--$64.60; -2.87; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmw.html
After Hours: $64.32
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. VMW is in the strong leaders group. Strong, steady rally up the 10 and 18 day EMA, punctuated by occasional tests of the 50 day EMA before resuming the move. Over the past 7 sessions VMW has tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA on the Tuesday close, gapping lower to start the session. It has held the 50 day EMA all the way up so we are watching for a hold in this range to bounce it back up. Watching, and if VMW can make the break higher through the buy point and make it stick into the close then we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/VMW.wmv
Volume: 2.345M Avg Volume: 2.57M
BUY POINT: $65.11 Volume=3M Target=$73.00 Stop=$63.32
POSITION: VMW 10J65.00 - Oct. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 06/29/2010
CSTR (Coinstar--$43.85; -1.90; optionable): Coin counting machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
After Hours: $43.50
EARNINGS: 07/29/2010
STATUS: Umbrella top. CSTR gapped higher in late April on earnings, a strong breakaway move. Rallied into mid-May then peaked. Since then it has formed a broad, rounded top. Last week it broke through the 50 day EMA and then slid further Tuesday, right down to the point it gapped to in late April. That rounded top has us watching to see if CSTR can hold the gap. If it breaks into the gap we are looking to move in for a downside play as it fills that earnings gap. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CSTR.wmv
Volume: 1.718M Avg Volume: 1.618M
BUY POINT: $43.66 Volume=2M Target=$38.32 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: CSTR 10V45.00 - Oct. $45p (-42 delta)
Play Date: 06/29/2010
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$44.23; -1.62; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
After Hours: $44.23
EARNINGS: 07/28/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. As RIG and BP tumbled lower in may to early June, OII sold with them. Since July OII bounced, moving up to the late May lows mid-June. Last week OII sold with the market, bounced modestly, and then Tuesday gapped lower on rising trade. OII looks ready to continue lower toward that prior low just below 40. Ready to continue lower, and as it does we are ready to play the move. A move to the initial target lands a 50%ish gain; if you use the October options a 40% move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/OII.wmv
Volume: 1.267M Avg Volume: 1.252M
BUY POINT: $44.04 Volume=1.5M Target=$40.02 Stop=$46.08
POSITION: OII 10T45.00 - Aug. $45p (-52 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/14/2010
DLM (Del Monte Foods--$14.57; -0.37; optionable): Processed and packaged food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlm.html
After Hours: $14.59
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Flag. This one slid with the rest of the market Tuesday, finishing just under the 50 day EMA. Held up decently, though, and is getting back to that point it bounced from last week near the 14.50 mark. If it can hold that level and start back higher, we can still look for our entry. To recap: You have to eat no matter what the economic conditions. After a solid March through late April surge that tested toward a 10 year high, DLM tested back through early last week, bracketing the 50 day EMA as it tested. Surged higher starting Tuesday, picking up some big volume Thursday as it gapped to the April peak. Testing back Friday and Monday, holding over the 10 day EMA as it does. Might take another day or two to test, but a very nice setup to make the next break higher. Want to see a move through the buy point on more solid trade.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DLM.wmv
Volume: 2.725M Avg Volume: 1.976M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: DLM 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
DTG (Dollar Thrifty Auto Group--$43.07; -0.52; optionable): Auto rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtg.html
After Hours: $43.07
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Pennant. This stock gapped just slightly down Tuesday, forming a doji just below the 50 day EMA. Still, it is holding up right near those late May and early June lows so it can very well bounce back. If it turns up off this doji, we keep watching for our entry. To recap: DTG made us some excellent coin this year. Over the past 5 weeks it has formed series of lower highs but has constant lows at the late April gap up point, now coincident with the rising 50 day EMA. Very solid pattern and a very nice test is setting up the next move. If that move is a break upside on some volume, moving through the 18 day EMA, we are ready to enter for a continued rally after this very nice consolidation.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DTG.wmv
Volume: 930.621K Avg Volume: 1.321M
BUY POINT: $45.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$52.24 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: DTG 10J45.00 - Oct. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/28/2010
STE (Steris--$31.49; -0.56; optionable): Medical appliances and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
After Hours: $31.49
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD upside. STE bounced Monday, but held under the 50 day EMA and then turned back down Tuesday. Not bad, though, as it held right over the 200 day SMA with a doji, and is in great position for a bounce. If it can hold this support and start higher, we watch for our entry. To recap: STE jumped higher to start February and then trending higher up the 10 day EMA into late April. Strong solid run. Since then it has stepped back, forming the B point in early May, the C point in mid-May, then down to the D point mid-June. STE rallied of that point and recaptured the 200 day SMA on that move. The past week it is testing again, this time holding the 200 day SMA and starting to bounce Friday and then again Monday. Nice setup as STE tests the bounce off the D point. As STE breaks higher once more and moves through the buy point, we are ready to move in if it can make it stick toward the close.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/STE.wmv
Volume: 364.29K Avg Volume: 532.07K
BUY POINT: $32.38 Volume=700K Target=$36.95 Stop=$31.22
POSITION: STE 10I30.00 - Sept. $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/21/2010
UTI (Universal Technical Institute--$24.07; -0.43; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uti.html
After Hours: $24.07
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: This one bounced up from the 50 day EMA Monday, but stepped back Tuesday with the rest of the market. It did undercut the moving average intraday, but a nice rebound off the lows closed the stock with the doji right over support. Really it held up nicely overall, and is setting up for the next bounce. This one looks ready, now it just needs to make the move. To recap: Nice rally from February to late March, then UTI started to sell faster than the rest of the market. It simply was getting a head start on its pattern a 12 week reverse head and shoulders. Used the 200 day SMA on the low to form the head. Spent a few weeks forming the right shoulder, then last week rallied up to the neckline, working laterally. Friday UTI broke higher on strong trade, gapped again Monday, but then reversed it all. May test a bit more but like what it is showing and still ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/UTI.wmv
Volume: 243.383K Avg Volume: 157.378K
BUY POINT: $25.31 Volume=225K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.57
POSITION: UTI 10J25.00 - Oct. $25c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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