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world stock market, us stock market
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7/01/10 Investment House Alerts
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: DIA; SPY
Buy alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: CAGC; USO
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ECONOMY.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NextSession.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Several undercurrents Thursday as the market sells further then starts the rebound to test SP500's break to new 2010 lows.
- Crazy moves in dollar, gold: new trends in the making or just some big trades being unwound?
- Jobless claims on the rise again.
- ISM lower but still very solid.
- Pending home sales flop.
- China PMI lower than the US.
- The true market leaders are setting up despite the indices.
- Friday expect more short covering as the test of the SP500 breakdown continues, but don't expect the full answer by the close.
A further selloff and then rebound as the SP500 test of its breakdown commences.
There were many conflicting themes in the market on Thursday, but the negative themes won out and pushed the market lower for yet another session. As expected, they did not hold until the close. There was short covering as the market has been down nine sessions almost two weeks of trading to the downside. That was enough to bring in shorts to cover ahead of the jobs number. The question is whether we will see more after the jobs number on Friday that pushes the SP500 back up to test its February, May, and early June lows. That is what I am expecting to happen. After a break of a major support level and a bit more selling, stocks tend to rebound to test those levels. I expect that to happen on Friday heading into a three-day Fourth of July weekend.
The news in the morning was not bad at all. One of the problems earlier in the week was that the ECB indicated it would not renew the loan facilities it had in place with the EU banks. That spooked the market and sent it lower, but on Thursday that was actually helping the futures bounce to the upside. They were doing well until the jobless claims came out that popped into the 470K range. That was much higher than expected. That was livable, but then the ISM was less than expected. Although still at solid levels, it was a downer for the market. As was the case on Wednesday, there was a gap to the downside when the negative news came out. It sent the market down to mid-morning lows. We took gain on our SPY and DIA positions when the news hit and the market gapped lower and sold. I anticipated that the bad news would send the market down, but just briefly before it rebounded. We were able to bank roughly 100% gain on our put options. Then the market started to recover, and it worked its way back up into the afternoon and was not in bad position at the close. It did not manage to make a positive close outside of the semiconductors index which managed a whopping 0.25% gain.
Overall the theme remains negative with the view that the US economy is likely heading into a double dip recession and dragged lower by the slowdown in Europe. That is weighing on stocks, but they can only be clubbed downward so long before they make some kind of bounce. The jobs report as well as the three-day weekend is giving shorts the reason to cover some of their profits.
OTHER MARKETS.
There were some fascinating moves. If you look at them as just one day, you would say there were major shifts underway. That may be the case, but typically one day does not alter well-established trends. What would have brought this about? It is the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3. There have been substantial gains in some of the other markets, whether it is currencies or precious metals. There were reasons for some of these to be taken off. You could come up with almost any reason you want maybe there was a realization that the US is going into a double dip, although with a 56 reading on the ISM, it does not seem like that would be the case. Nonetheless, I will delve into some of the reasons why there are some big and rather surprising movements in the other markets.
Dollar. The DXY0 broke sharply lower off of this nice double bottom pullback at the 50 day EMA, it collapsed lower on Thursday (1.2522 Euros versus 1.228 Euros Wednesday). Just a few sessions back, the dollar was trading close to 1.2 Euros; that is a tremendous move. That is the kind of move you get over more than a year's period, yet this happened in one day. What the going on? We started the new quarter, and what I was hearing from some of the traders was that there was a very large short position in Euros being unwound. The profits were being taken on that. It does not mean that the move has reversed and the Euro is going to skyrocket against the dollar. The trend will likely resume, i.e., the dollar moving higher. It was just a massive unwinding of a very large short position where profits were being taken.
We will have to see how the dollar reacts after this sharp spike below the 50 day EMA. I expect it to recover, but if it does not, that changes the game a bit. It makes you take pause as to whether the US will be the kind of safe haven that we always anticipate it to be. Is our debt-to-GDP ratio getting too high? Does this all of a sudden make socialist countries look better than the US? Not likely, but we will have to watch and see how this move comes back. Does it unwind, does it rectify the break lower, or does it just continue? That will tell the tale as to what is going on with the US economy.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds continued higher. With the early selling, there was concern about the US economy that drove bonds to new rally highs, but then they reversed (US 10 year 2.95% yield versus 2.94% Wednesday). Bonds pulled back slightly on Thursday even with the weak US data; indeed, probably because of the US data. It made investors worry about whether the US would be a good safe haven for their money. Bonds are still very strong, however, and the bond market has been telling us that there is a problem with the US and other world economies. I also want to note that the yield curve is falling. The spread between the 2 year and the 10 year has come in quite a bit from just two weeks back. A flattening curve tends to indicate there are lessening positive economic prospects. It is not inverted, so that is not the real issue. It is more of a worry with respect to other economies. If the US economic data continues to slide, then the yield curve could flatten even more and start to invert. That would be a problem, but it is not anywhere close to that right now. I am not staying up at night worrying about that aspect of the bonds market.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Gold was one of the more interesting markets on the day. There was a massive selloff, and gold fell almost 50 points ($1,197.40, -48.50). The move took it below the 50 day EMA, although it did manage to recover some lost ground. Could the catalyst have been that gold was no longer desired? Could deflation worries have trumped the fear and investors decided gold should be dumped? It is a possibility, but I also hear that there was a huge gold position being unwound today as well. When someone vacates the market in a big way, typically that means a drop but then a recovery. If no one else jettisons their portfolios of gold, then it should recover right back up. Thus I was not too interested in dumping any of my gold positions at least on this one-day event.
I also heard that gold positions were being unwound to for margin calls with respect to equity positions that were diving lower. They were selling profitable areas, taking gains on those in order to cover margin calls with respect to their losses in equities. Definitely an unwinding of the "short the Euro, long gold" play that has been going on. I also hear it was just one or two big players doing this. We will see if there is a rebound. As I said, if there is only one player exiting, it often does not mean the trend is over.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil continues to struggle as well ($72.73, -2.90). It was a major drop in oil, breaking through this trendline to the upside. Could it be the same type of situation we see with gold and the dollar? Possibly. Oil looked like it could continue to ramp higher, but the fears regarding the US economic recovery with the economic data that came out here and in other parts of the world (such as China) had their impact. Oil cracked through this trendline, and we will see if it bounces right back up. If not, then oil could fall back to bottom of its range. If the economies of the world will slow down as a lot of the markets and gloom on the financial stations seem to indicate then there would be less demand for oil, and it should likely fall lower. As an aside, I saw some gas stations that had bumped up their gas prices on this last bounce in oil, but had not taken into account this past week that saw oil tumbling back down. I am sure we will see that in the pumps over the next couple of weeks.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Volume. Volume jumped up 22% to 2.5B on NASDAQ, and that pushed trade back above average on that exchange. Volume was up almost 12% on the NYSE to 1.6B. That pushed that volume back above average as well. Not necessarily a bad thing given the indices recovered big moves off of fairly big losses. It was nothing compared to what we saw on Wednesday.
Breadth. The breadth was very tame at the close, as one would expect given the recovery. Roughly 2:1 decliners over advancers on the NASDAQ, and a tame 1.4:1 decliners over advancers on the NYSE. We are still in a situation where if the market is up big, breadth is up big. If it is down big, breadth is down big. It is not showing divergent numbers with the market action, so there is nothing out of line. What I talked about earlier that seems the most interesting is the VIX not getting anywhere near its May high as the market sold to new 2010 lows. Looking at the volume on the recovery off the lows today, that was a positive. Volume kicked up as stocks recovered off breaks to new lows for the selloff.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 sold off significantly, much further below the February, May, and June lows. It undercut the 1020 level, which is a support level on the low, and then it reversed off that and recovered it on the close. There was a sharp two-week decline. Remember, I am looking for the bounce to continue back up toward the February lows, and we will see what kind of move it gives us. It looks like it has started with this doji and a nice recovery off the lows on Thursday. It should play out over the jobs report, and I expect it to likely continue higher after that. Then we see if it is a false break and can surge back up into the range, or if the February, May, and June lows stop it and send it back down. If so, we know we are going deeper. It is just a matter of playing more downside positions at that point.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ recovered off its lows as well. It did a decent job on rising volume. It almost got back to positive, but it did make a new closing low for 2010, and indeed new lows for 2010 on this selloff. With NASDAQ and SP500 both showing the intraday reversal and doji, perhaps we could see two false breakdowns that turn, reverse, and rally back up into the 2010 range.
SP600. SP600 was also down, dropping 0.75%, but it also reversed off its lows. It did undercut its June low, but it held easily above its February low. It did not come close to breaking that. As with the other indices, it has undercut near term support and then had a nice big reversal intraday. Now we see if it can move back up into the range.
SOX. Semiconductors were the golden boys of the session. They sold off to a new low for the past two months intraday, but there was an intraday reversal as happened the prior three times it sold off. It took the index back to positive. It did not break it through the long term support level, but it tapped it on the high and looks in good position to roll back up in its range. Could the semiconductors lead the rest of the market that sold down to new lows for the 2010 and then reversed? We will see. It looks very positive to try that, but then everything in the market is somewhat negative.
The indices did what they had to do. I anticipated SP500 to sell a bit more after cracking through its February, May, and June lows. It did that, and it has now reversed and looks like it will try to move up and test those levels. NASDAQ broke to a new 2010 low, but it has reversed as well. SP600 undercut its January lows, and it is trying to reverse also. The SOX is doing nothing different, just minding its own business and trading inside its range. This is actually somewhat positive, but the overall theme is still negative, of course. We are hitting new lows so it cannot be great, but near term the moves will tell more of the tale.
LEADERSHIP
Financials. JPM is below its recent range, but it did reverse nicely and will look to bounce back up to its February, May, and June lows. That will be the key with its next move, similar to SP500. If it can break back up there, it looks good to continue higher. It will be an important step for it and other financials. GS is the same type of situation. It has been down and having a hard time gaining traction, but it looks somewhat solid now to at least bounce up toward the bottom of this range around 141. It is trading now at 131, and that makes it an interesting trade. It may not plough through this level and move into the prior range, but it is oversold and could bounce there. GS is considered a leader, although now that it had the snot kicked out of it, it does not look like a leader.
Industrials. CAT pulled back to the 38% Fibonacci test last week, but it fell through that with a gap on Tuesday. It has an ABCD pattern with a nice doji at the 200 day EMA.
Transports. Another stock that I am interested in that people seem to scoff at are transports railroads in particular. CSX is holding at the 200 day EMA and prior support it has bounced off of three other times. It is in excellent position to bounce back up inside its range.
Market Leaders. This is a category of leadership stocks that are from various sectors, but they have been the best stocks in the market over the past several months. They appear to be setting up better. NFLX is holding the 50 day EMA with a hammer doji on Wednesday and another one on Thursday this time with the tail to the downside and rebounding. It is holding at prior support levels on prior peaks from April and May; that is an interesting pattern. There is something of an ABCD pattern, and it looks ready to move back to the upside if it gets a trigger. An oversold market could be the trigger it is looking for.
We have played PCLN to the downside, and it looked like it was starting to bounce. Now it is looking as if it will make a bounce, holding at a support range and building for a move to the upside. Indeed, it was upside on rising volume Thursday. We could get a trade back up to the top of the lower range and see if it can break through the February lows. SNDK broke through the 50 day EMA. It is just below the trendline, but it is showing a nice doji with tail on Thursday. It has come down and done this type of thing before, and we will see if it can hold and make the break to the upside. Not as pretty as some of the others, but it is interesting.
AKAM got the downgrade on Tuesday, but it managed to hold the 50 day EMA and show a nice doji with tail. A hammer on good volume right at the 50 day EMA. I am watching it. It is not the best-looking pattern. It has not tested the 50 day EMA since it broke higher in March. Usually a stock breaks higher, it runs up the 10 and 18 day EMAs, and then it comes back for a deeper test. Lo and behold, that is what AKAM has done, showing a wonderful doji at that level. Maybe we get a bounce off that level. FFIV has come down to its trend level and has held yet again as it did twice in May and in June. Now in early July it could easily bounce back up inside of its channel and give another play as well. Some of these strong leaders are making the pullback. They may not exactly be ready at this point, but they are close and we want to be ready to play them if they make the move back to the upside.
THE ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ECONOMY.wmv
Jobless claims continue sapping the life from the economy.
ISM Construction doesn't live up to expectations, but it is better than China.
ECB helps ease the market pain by extending 6-day loans to EU banks.
May Pending Home Sales plunge 30%.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX. The VIX spiked higher on the early selling, but then reversed. On the high it reached 3758. Even though SP500 has fallen to a new low for the year, VIX has not rallied to a new high. The fear level is just not that high, and you can read this two ways. You can say it is not high enough to turn the market. You could say that, but VIX reached a level high enough to turn the market back in May. It has already broken to a new low, so it has not made that turn yet. That is true, but the other indices are still holding decently, and we will see if they can hold at their 2010 lows and we get a bounce back. That VIX is not necessarily indicating that a sharper, deeper selloff is still to come.
VIX: 32.86; -1.68
VXN: 34.56; -0.58
VXO: 32.92; -0.65
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.26; +0.19
Bulls versus Bears:
This past week the bearish number of investment advisors topped bullish advisors. That is a rare event and thus very noteworthy. It falls into our theme that the sentiment indicators have hit extremes and are at levels sufficient for at least a more sustained bounce in the indices.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 41.1% versus 37.0%. Market sells off while bulls rise. Typical inverse relationship. Not a dangerous level but on the rise. Fell from 43.8%, 47.2%, and 56.0% before that. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 31.1% versus 32.6%. Of course bears fell as well as the market fell, again the inverse relationship. Solid rise from the mid to upper 20's, now waffling some. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -7.88 points (-0.37%) to close at 2101.36
Volume: 2.585B (+22.35%)
Up Volume: 975.898M (+621.754M)
Down Volume: 1.682B (-99.922M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.71 to 1
New Highs: 14 (-2)
New Lows: 253 (+94)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -3.34 points (-0.32%) to close at 1027.37
NYSE Volume: 1.597B (+11.61%)
Up Volume: 665.24M (+278.847M)
Down Volume: 897.209M (-126.393M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.73 to 1
New Highs: 89 (+6)
New Lows: 196 (+62)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -41.49 points (-0.42%) to close at 9732.53
Volume DJ30: 263M shares Thursday versus 235M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
The market is sitting on what hopefully is the bottom of a very sharp two-week selloff. It saw SP500 break below its 2010 lows and NASDAQ do the same. Starting to see a reversal, and the key move will be the test buy SP500 of these February lows (whether intraday or closing). They are not too far away after this reversal, but this is where the rubber meets the road. Either this was a false break and the market has already factored in all the negatives and will break back up into the range, or it will fail and roll back over. You figure out which one you believe. It think it is a safe bet right now that for Friday the market has factored in whatever happens with the jobs report.
This has been a lopsided and downside two weeks that has clipped the markets quite sharply. So much so that the indices particularly SP500 have broken through prior lows. Now we see what kind of rebound it gets. A lot of this will be driven by some short covering ahead of a three-day weekend. Once the information is known about the jobs report, that short covering is probably going to continue. As long as it is not an atrocious jobless report, it could have a nice short-covering rally back up. The shorts will think the economic data on the jobs front was not so bad. They could decide we have had a heck of a two-week selloff, so it is probably time to book more gains and let things bounce back up. Then we can look at our shorts after that. Indeed, that is basically what I have been talking about: letting it bounce back up, see if it can break into the range or not, and then make plays from there. If it bounces up to the bottom of the range and fails, then you close out significant numbers of our upside and look for more downside. You would look at the SPY and DIA because those have been the weakest performers. They were the first to break down into new 2010 lows, and after a test they are likely to resume that move and make more new 2010 lows. We look to add to those positions. We already have 100% gain in them, and we have taken some of that off the table. I would like to make more on a bounce that fails.
At this point, you would almost assume that the bounce would fail given how negative things are. As soon as you assume something in the market, however, it kicks you in the assumption (so to speak). We will look for a bounce and be ready with some of the leaders I talked about: NFLX, PCLN, SNDK, AKAM. There are others out there in good position even after that mauling such as JOSB. Those can give us a run upside. Although a lot of people may be gun shy at this point, we are looking for trades in them only. We are not looking to get married to them. If there is a failure at these levels and the February and May and June levels in SP500 you can expect more downside and load back up.
Will it all happen tomorrow? Probably not. We have a three-day weekend, and there will be short covering that takes things to the upside. You have to decide if you want to buy in on a Friday ahead of a three-day weekend. Friday is never my favorite time to buy, and a three-day weekend makes it even less appealing. I may want to take positions in some of the very strong leaders, but it would be very few. I do not want to risk serious money ahead of a three-day weekend on a modest market bounce. We will not know the outcome of this rebound to test buy the end of Friday. We will not know what will happen until next week, so we do not want to rush into things. I do want to see if gold and oil can recover, and I want to see if the dollar rebound. I want to ascertain whether those moves on Thursday were one-day moves based upon a couple of big trades being unwound or if they are an indication of a changing trend. If so, we can adjust positions or close them accordingly.
Overall, there will not be a lot to do. We will manage positions we have if there are bounces. Let us say the market recovers nicely, but some upside positions do not recover. We would want to take that into account and likely close them up in the event that the market turns back over next week. Again, we will not know the answer to how this test of the breakdown will play out. We do not want to get too involved and make too many assumptions based upon Friday.
There will be some more pieces of the puzzle in place, but it will not be a complete picture until next week. On any moves we make, we will move small and with caution. Position ourselves carefully, and of course take good risk/reward points. If we have an issue, we can get out quickly and not have to suffer any major losses. Have an excellent evening, and we will see what happens on Friday.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2101.36
Resistance:
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
The 10 day EMA at 2187
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2253
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
The 50 day EMA at 2274
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
Support:
2100 is the February 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 1030.71
Resistance:
1040 is the May 2010 low
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1101 is the October 2009 high
1106 is the September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 1107
The 200 day SMA at 1112
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 9774.02
Resistance:
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,349
The 200 day SMA at 10,361
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 28 - Monday
Personal Income, May (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Personal Spending, May (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior (no revisions)
PCE Prices, May (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (no revisions)
June 29 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, April (09:00): 3.81% actual versus 3.4% expected, 2.35% prior (no revisions)
Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 52.9 actual versus 62.0 expected, 62.7 prior (revised from 63.3)
June 30 - Wednesday
ADP Employment Change, June (08:15): 13K actual versus 61K expected, 57K prior (revised from 55K)
Chicago PMI, June (09:45): 59.1 actual versus 59.0 expected, 59.7 prior (no revisions)
Crude Inventories, 06/26 (10:30): -2.01M actual versus 2.02M prior
July 01 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 06/19 (08:30): 4616K actual versus 4510K expected, 4573K prior (revised from 4548K)
Initial Claims, 06/26 (08:30): 472K actual versus 458K expected, 459K prior (revised from 457K)
Construction Spending, May (10:00): -0.2% actual versus -0.9% expected, 2.3% prior (revised from 2.7%)
ISM Index, June (10:00): 56.2 actual versus 59.0 expected, 59.7 prior
Pending Home Sales, May (10:00): -30.0% actual versus -10.5% expected, 6.0% prior
Auto Sales, June (14:00): 4.0M expected, 3.9M prior
Truck Sales, June (14:00): 5.1M expected, 5.2M prior
July 02 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, June (08:30): -100K expected, 431K prior
Unemployment Rate, June (08:30): 9.8% expected, 9.7% prior
Hourly Earnings, June (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, June (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
Factory Orders, May (10:00): -0.6% expected, 1.2% prior
End part 1 of 3
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