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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 07/01/2010
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$40.35; -0.22; optionable): Internet infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $40.24
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong break higher in March then a run up the 10 and 18 day EMA through last week. Then it started to sell, gapping lower Tuesday on a downgrade. It fell further Wednesday and then Thursday, managing to reverse off the Thursday low and hold the 50 day EMA on the close. This is a rather normal pattern: breakout and rally up the 10 and 18 day EMA then a deeper test to the 50 day EMA where it resets for another run. Note volume was up as it tested this support and rebounded Thursday. If AKAM can bounce and hold the move then we are looking to add some positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/AKAM.wmv
Volume: 5.773M Avg Volume: 4.51M
BUY POINT: $41.02 Volume=6M Target=$46.91 Stop=$38.92
POSITION: AKAM 10K40.00 - Nov. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/01/2010
FFIV (F5 Networks--$69.60; +1.03; optionable): PC networking, communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $68.57
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Looking to add some positions as FFIV tests back to the 50 day EMA and its up trendline off the February low. FFIV sold during the overall market selloff, but it was an orderly pullback, coming back to logical support and still building a bullish pattern. Thursday FFIV sold but then reversed to close positive. If it can continue higher then it is worth adding some positions off of this very logical support level.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FFIV.wmv
Volume: 1.525M Avg Volume: 1.579M
BUY POINT: $69.96 Volume=1.6M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.54
POSITION: FFIV 10J70.00 - Oct. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/01/2010
PCLN (Priceline.com--$182.03; +5.49; optionable): Online hotel, airline discounts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
After Hours: $179.98
EARNINGS: 08/09/2010
STATUS: Rolling. PCLN broke the February lows in late May, but it held another support level and had rolled up and down a couple of rotations since. This week PCLN completed the last move down to those prior lows and Thursday it started to bounce. Good risk/reward positioning and we are looking to play PCLN to the upside on this roll back to the top of this lower level range. If it makes the breakout, no issues with that.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PCLN.wmv
Volume: 1.463M Avg Volume: 1.492M
BUY POINT: $182.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$199.35 Stop=$174.92
POSITION: PCLN 10H180.00 - Aug. $180c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/01/2010
TIBX (Tibco Software--$11.98; -0.08; optionable): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tibx.html
After Hours: $11.98
EARNINGS: 09/20/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice pattern has set up, setting the foundation for a new run higher. Solid March to early May rally, then it needed to consolidate the gains. TIBX then formed a 7 week triangle, using the 50 day EMA for higher and higher lows. Last Friday TIBX gapped out of the triangle on some huge volume, but as it was a Russell rebalance we decided to wait. Sure enough TIBX is testing, using the market selling to its advantage, sitting right on the 10 day EMA with a doji Wednesday and again on Thursday, recovering from the early selloff. Strength in a weak market. When TIBX bounces and can hold the move we will step in to the upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TIBX.wmv
Volume: 4.517M Avg Volume: 3.658M
BUY POINT: $12.24 Volume=5M Target=$13.94 Stop=$11.38
POSITION: TIBX 10K12.50 - Nov. $12.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/29/2010
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$60.71; +0.68; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
After Hours: $60.88
EARNINGS: 08/10/2010
STATUS: Rolling. This stock has had a pretty consistent pullback the past couple of weeks to hold key support Thursday. It did test down early with the rest of the market, undercutting the 200 day SMA, but then rallied back with good volume to hold the June lows with a doji at the close. It is set for the bounce, and now just has to show it. To recap: This is CREE's fourth time to test 61 over the past two months. With the 200 day SMA (58.77) rising up below the bottom of this recent range. Sold yes, but volume was still below average. Will see how CREE manages to hold this support, and if it can again find its footing and start back up from this level we will look to move in if it can bounce and make the move stick. Looking for a move up to the mid-May gap point, the most obvious resistance outside of the prior high.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CREE.wmv
Volume: 3.4M Avg Volume: 3.483M
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$70.72 Stop=$58.87
POSITION: CREE 10I60.00 - Sept. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/30/2010
CSX (CSX Corp.--$49.13; -0.50; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
After Hours: $49.21
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: Rolling. CSX was down intraday to undercut the 200 day SMA, but it rallied nicely back to hold that support level. This is a good place to spring up from, so we have to watch closely from this point for the move higher to give us the buy. To recap: CSX is a railroad so it is only appropriate that it is in a rolling pattern, using the 200 day SMA as support for the past two months. Indeed, it has already bounced three times off that level and now it finds itself there again, showing a doji Wednesday after flopping to that level in the Tuesday selling. Good risk/reward position with the 200 day SMA as support close at hand. Looking for CSX to bounce, and if it can hold it into the close we are looking at some positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CSX.wmv
Volume: 5.36M Avg Volume: 4.152M
BUY POINT: $50.46 Volume=5.8M Target=$56.94 Stop=$48.89
POSITION: CSX 10K50.00 - Nov. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/29/2010
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$55.96; +1.97; optionable): Clothing stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $53.99
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Rolling. This one had a nice test the past couple of weeks, and then took a nice bounce up Thursday to move back to those May and June lows. We can wait on it to see how the Friday jobs report affects it, and where it holds up. If it can hold the recent lows and then start higher, we look at picking up a partial. To recap: Looking at JOSB again as it sets up for an upside roll in its range. Strong February to April run and then the test, an up and down range with 55 as the bottom. Nice reach lower Tuesday undercutting the May and June lows, then snapping back on strong, above average volume. Watching for a roll back up in the range, and if JOSB can make the move and make it stick into the close, then we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOSB.wmv
Volume: 355.184K Avg Volume: 410.268K
BUY POINT: $55.43 Volume=500K Target=$63.74 Stop=$51.91
POSITION: JOSB 10J55.00 - Oct. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/26/2010
LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor--$4.33; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lscc.html
After Hours: $4.34
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: This stock tested back nicely intraday with the tap at the June low, and then bounced back to form a doji. A really sweet move, and it looks ready to bounce now. When it can push higher from this point and stick, we look at buying it. To recap: LSCC is in a 9 week flag or pennant formed after a solid February to early May run. The test to form the pattern posted a double bottom at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level; you look for a pattern such as that double bottom to play off of the 50% level to regenerate the upside momentum and keep the stock running. It did in fact rally off of that second bottom into Monday last week where it peaked near the early June high and then slid back to the gap up point from late April. Good test of that initial move off the 50% Fibonacci double bottom. If LSCC continues higher on some decent trade through the buy point we will look at starting up the play. Looking for a run up toward the 127% Fibonacci extension though our target is a bit shy of that.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LSCC.wmv
Volume: 1.533M Avg Volume: 2.539M
BUY POINT: $4.48 Volume=2.8M Target=$5.45 Stop=$4.17
POSITION: LSCC 10L2.50 - Dec. $2.50c (88 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/30/2010
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$14.80; 0.00; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
After Hours: $14.80
EARNINGS: 08/06/2010
STATUS: Trend reversal. Not much has changed with this one as it was perfectly flat Thursday, showing the third straight doji over the 50 day EMA. Very ready for the next shot higher, so we watch it closely for that as it will give us the entry. To recap: NDN peaked its last run in early April after rounding off the move starting in February. It has slid lower into early June, rebounding to the 200 day SMA last week, then bursting through on a strong shot of volume. Monday it moved through the 50 day EMA, then Tuesday it tested, holding right on top of that level once more. Nice break above the near term downtrend and looking for NDN to continue up from this modest test. The economy is viewed to be in jeopardy, and these kind of deep discount stores work well in a weaker economy. On a renewed break to the upside we are looking to pick up some NDN.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NDN.wmv
Volume: 1.365M Avg Volume: 670.231K
BUY POINT: $15.02 Volume=850K Target=$17.44 Stop=$14.27
POSITION: NDN 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (44 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/30/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$109.66; +1.01; optionable): Mail order DVD's, games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $109.95
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: ABCD. Looking even better after the Thursday move. It undercut the 50 day EMA on the low, and then zipped back up to finish with a doji over the moving average. It is showing it is ready to move up from the D point in the pattern, so when it sticks that move higher, we buy it. To recap: NFLX is one of the leaders I have talked about, one we are watching during the selling to see if it sets back up and gives us a new buy point. After a good rally off the 50 day EMA starting in mid-May it peaked in mid-June and started the current test. It is stair-stepping back, coming again to the 50 day EMA to test the move. In so doing it has formed the familiar ABCD pattern. We like how volume rose as it fell to this key level, indicating that buyers were stepping up to support it. If NFLX can put in the bottom here and bounce it will have formed the D point and I am looking for a move up to the prior high as the initial target. Now we see if this leader can make that move for us.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 3.251M Avg Volume: 3.382M
BUY POINT: $110.22 Volume=4.4M Target=$126.55 Stop=$106.46
POSITION: NFLX 10I110.00 - Sept. $110c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Downside Play:
Play Date: 06/29/2010
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$44.13; -0.77; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
After Hours: $44.13
EARNINGS: 07/28/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. OII bounced up off the lows Thursday, but it still finished in the red Thursday. We are waiting to see how the jobs report affects it, and then will go from there. If it can hold under near support from the 10 day EMA, we can pick it up as it fades. To recap: As RIG and BP tumbled lower in May to early June, OII sold with them. Since July OII bounced, moving up to the late May lows mid-June. Last week OII sold with the market, bounced modestly, and then Tuesday gapped lower on rising trade. OII looks ready to continue lower toward that prior low just below 40. Ready to continue lower, and as it does we are ready to play the move. A move to the initial target lands a 50%ish gain; if you use the October options a 40% move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/OII.wmv
Volume: 933.304K Avg Volume: 1.26M
BUY POINT: $44.04 Volume=1.5M Target=$40.02 Stop=$46.08
POSITION: OII 10T45.00 - Aug. $45p (-52 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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