|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
********** *************
Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 07/06/2010
GDI (Gardner Denver--$44.19; +0.33; optionable): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdi.html
After Hours: $44.16
EARNINGS: 07/22/2010
STATUS: Rolling. GDI is back on as it sold back a bit further, falling out of a handle, but in doing so has come back to support from February, March, and June. The 200 day SMA is rising beneath it as well, and after touching down at this level last Thursday, GDI is in position to rally back up in its range. In this market you don't assume it will, but if it posts a good move through the buy point and can hold it toward the close we are looking to pick up some positions and let it roll back up.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GDI.wmv
Volume: 743.173K Avg Volume: 495.423K
BUY POINT: $44.71 Volume=750K Target=$50.94 Stop=$42.21
POSITION: GDI 10J40.00 - Oct. $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/06/2010
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$25.06; +0.04; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $25.01
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: NVLS is another one of those chip stocks that sold with the market the past two weeks, but despite the selling it is not breaking down. Indeed it is holding easily above the May and June lows, and similar to other chip stocks, it bounced nicely Thursday and Friday off of its intraday lows to close, and Tuesday NVLS tried to break upside but gave it back in the market relapse. We are watching for a roll back up in the range by NVLS, looking for a bounce through the buy point to stick toward the close. That is our entry trigger.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NVLS.wmv
Volume: 2.088M Avg Volume: 3.493M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=4M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.89
POSITION: NVLS 10I24.00 - Sept. $24c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/06/2010
SAM (Boston Beer--$66.08; +1.67; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sam.html
After Hours: $64.21
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: ABCD upside. SAM keeps foaming higher, the latest run starting in mid-May after a test of the 50 day EMA. Rallied nicely and then, along with the rest of the market, sold back the past two weeks. SAM stair-stepped back, using the selling as a consolidation of the move. Thursday and Friday it tested its 50 day EMA with volume spiking Thursday as it held that level; like to see that as it indicates support for the stock. In addition, the Fibonacci chart shows SAM tested the 38% retracement when measured from the February low. Tuesday SAM started to pop the top on the upside, and if it can continue higher we are looking to move in. Like that as it shows continued upside momentum, bolstering the ABCD pattern. On a continued move upside we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SAM.wmv
Volume: 265.843K Avg Volume: 148.488K
BUY POINT: $66.22 Volume=215K Target=$73.91 Stop=$62.48
POSITION: SAM 10I60.00 - Sept. $60c (71 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/06/2010
SHAW (The Shaw Group--$33.07; -0.25; optionable): Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shaw.html
After Hours: $33.01
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: Rolling. SHAW is at the 200 day SMA for the fourth time in 2 months. The prior three it bounced up off of that support. We are looking for SHAW to do the same here and we stand to make some money as it does. Thus as SHAW moves upside we are ready to move into positions if it can stick the move through our buy point into the close.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SHAW.wmv
Volume: 831.377K Avg Volume: 983.798K
BUY POINT: $33.85 Volume=1.1M Target=$37.94 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: SHAW 10J33.00 - Oct. $33c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 07/06/2010
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$44.49; -2.40; optionable): Steel components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $44.79
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: CLF tested the 200 day SMA twice in the past two months, bouncing higher on each test. Last week it tested it again, but this time it did not hold. It broke through that level, made a modest test, then gapped upside Tuesday but flipped over for a loss. Looks to continue lower and we are ready to move in as it does. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLF.wmv
Volume: 10.905M Avg Volume: 8.319M
BUY POINT: $44.38 Volume=10M Target=$40.11 Stop=$46.91
POSITION: CLF 10T45.00 - Oct. $45p (-45 delta)
Play Date: 07/06/2010
DECK (Deckers Outdoor--$44.43; -2.84; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/deck.html
After Hours: $45.83
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: DECK came back to test its 50 day EMA last week, and it could not hold. It bounced to end the week, trying to get back above that level. It fell a bit short and rolled over Tuesday on strong, above average volume. There is a gap higher from back in early March, and DECK may just try and fill that. A move down to our target lands a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DECK.wmv
Volume: 1.753M Avg Volume: 1.531M
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$38.89 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: DECK 10U45.00 - Sept. $45p (-46 delta)
Play Date: 07/06/2010
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$97.45; +0.58; optionable)
After Hours: $97.45
STATUS: If the Dow cannot hold a bounce here we are looking for more downside positions to ride the move lower. It would be best if it moved up again and failed once more, but if the market rolls back over from here we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DIA.wmv
Volume: 10.253M Avg Volume: 14.56M
BUY POINT: $97.32 Volume=18M Target=$92.11 Stop=$98.78
POSITION: DIA 10U98.00 - Sept. $98p (-49 delta)
Play Date: 07/06/2010
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$102.87; +0.67; optionable)
After Hours: $102.95
STATUS: If SP500 fails at its 2010 lows as it did Tuesday, we need to be ready to move into some more downside positions. As with the Dow, an upside move that then fails is the best entry, but if the Tuesday test of the 2010 lows was sufficient and SP500 starts down again, that is good enough.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SPY.wmv
Volume: 256.936M Avg Volume: 275.205M
BUY POINT: $102.16 Volume=450M Target=$98.34 Stop=$104.71
POSITION: SPY10U103.00 - Sept. $103p (-47 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 07/03/2010
CAT (Caterpillar--$59.81; +0.63; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
After Hours: $60.01
EARNINGS: 07/22/2010
STATUS: Like most other stocks Tuesday, CAT finished down from better looking intraday levels. Still a solid performer, however, as it tapped the 200 day SMA on the low and bounced to finish positive. Looks very ready to make the push higher that will give us the entry, just need to see that happen before we make our move. To recap: CAT fell sharply this week in the market selling, bit did not collapse. Indeed it has come back to the 200 day SMA, holding over the double bottom in late May and early April, undercutting the 200 day MA Thursday then reversing to hold that level. CAT continues to show surprising resilience and we don't have any problem with that. If CAT bounces off the 200 day SMA and can make the move stick it is in a good risk/reward position to take some positions to play a rebound as the market rebounds from its oversold condition.
Volume: 9.351M Avg Volume: 10.211M
BUY POINT: $60.78 Volume=12M Target=$69.94 Stop=$57.78
POSITION: CAT 10K60.00 - Nov. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/30/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$107.27; +0.19; optionable): Mail order DVD's, games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $106.91
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: ABCD. This one kicked things off with a short gap up and then a fade back to finish flat. Nothing wrong with this hold at the 50 day EMA support, and NFLX is still ready to leap up from the D point of the pattern. To recap: NFLX is one of the leaders I have talked about, one we are watching during the selling to see if it sets back up and gives us a new buy point. After a good rally off the 50 day EMA starting in mid-May it peaked in mid-June and started the current test. It is stair-stepping back, coming again to the 50 day EMA to test the move. In so doing it has formed the familiar ABCD pattern. We like how volume rose as it fell to this key level, indicating that buyers were stepping up to support it. If NFLX can put in the bottom here and bounce it will have formed the D point and I am looking for a move up to the prior high as the initial target. Now we see if this leader can make that move for us.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 2.248M Avg Volume: 3.451M
BUY POINT: $110.22 Volume=4.4M Target=$126.55 Stop=$106.46
POSITION: NFLX 10I110.00 - Sept. $110c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/01/2010
PCLN (Priceline.com--$181.50; +5.09; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
After Hours: $181.50
EARNINGS: 08/09/2010
STATUS: Rolling. This stock gapped up, filled, then bounced to post a solid move for the session. After this hold at the key support from the May and June lows, the stock is starting to bounce. If NFLX can keep up the good work from this point, it can be bought. To recap: PCLN broke the February lows in late May, but it held another support level and had rolled up and down a couple of rotations since. This week PCLN completed the last move down to those prior lows and Thursday it started to bounce. Good risk/reward positioning and we are looking to play PCLN to the upside on this roll back to the top of this lower level range. If it makes the breakout, no issues with that.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PCLN.wmv
Volume: 1.489M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $182.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$199.35 Stop=$174.92
POSITION: PCLN 10H180.00 - Aug. $180c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/03/2010
SWKS (Skyworks Solutions--$16.33; -0.31; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swks.html
After Hours: $16.30
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: SWKS turned lower Monday, but showed life as it bounced off its lows to hang onto the 50 day EMA. In great position overall , and this is one to watch closely as it looks like it could take off any day. To recap: Showing excellent relative strength even in this pullback over the past two weeks. A strong mover from November 2009, SWKS flattened out in March, pausing its run. Got very choppy in May, gapping higher to a new rally high and immediately reversing. Based out through mid-June and then broke higher once more; apparently it had its rest and was ready to mover once more. The selling the last two weeks of June brought it back, but it also managed to hold quite nicely at the 50 day EMA Thursday and Friday, bouncing up off its intraday lows. Its closes those two days are equivalent with the Fibonacci 38% retracement level. Very solid and ready to move in as SWKS continues higher and extends its move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SWKS.wmv
Volume: 5.922M Avg Volume: 6.678M
BUY POINT: $16.96 Volume=8.5M Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.97
POSITION: SWKS 10K15.00 - Nov. $15c (88 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 07/03/2010
BTU (Peabody Energy--$40.26; +1.27; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
After Hours: $40.08
EARNINGS: 04/22/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. BTU stuck a move higher Tuesday as it gapped to a doji, but it is doing just what it needs to for this play. The stock stretched all the way through the 50 day EMA, but faded back to form a doji. This is giving us a very nice test up, and when it can break down, it will give us a great entry. To recap: The market is likely to bounce before it sells significantly more, but in the event it does not (and even if it does), BTU is in position to move downside and make us some money. A week back BTU bumped up against its 200 day SMA as BTU rebounded off the early June low. BTU failed a break through attempt and gapped lower Tuesday. It spent the rest of the week bumping the 18 day EMA and then on Friday started lower, making a new closing low on this selling leg. If it continues to break lower, particularly if the market fails without an upside bounce, we move in for a move to an initial target at 35. That move lands a 35%ish gain and we would take some profit there and then see if it breaks down through that support.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BTU.wmv
Volume: 6.033M Avg Volume: 6.849M
BUY POINT: $39.66 Volume=8M Target=$35.05 Stop=$4139.00
POSITION: BTU 10U40.00 - Sept. $40p (-50 delta)
Play Date: 06/29/2010
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$44.11; -0.67; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
After Hours: $44.08
EARNINGS: 07/28/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. OII took things easy last week with a little lateral action, but it went to work Tuesday. It gapped up to the 18 day EMA and then slid back to post a nice little step down, and now if it can continue, it hits the buy point. To recap: As RIG and BP tumbled lower in May to early June, OII sold with them. Since July OII bounced, moving up to the late May lows mid-June. Last week OII sold with the market, bounced modestly, and then Tuesday gapped lower on rising trade. OII looks ready to continue lower toward that prior low just below 40. Ready to continue lower, and as it does we are ready to play the move. A move to the initial target lands a 50%ish gain; if you use the October options a 40% move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/OII.wmv
Volume: 1.065M Avg Volume: 1.283M
BUY POINT: $44.04 Volume=1.5M Target=$40.02 Stop=$46.08
POSITION: OII 10T45.00 - Aug. $45p (-52 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
