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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: SOX blasted off. COLM as well.
Monday plays:
COLM: Blasted off.
DELL: Started the roll back up.
ROOM: It moved up too, but that was not the play.
Best Plays:
1) SCIO: Nice pattern.
2) CFCP: Savings and loans look ready.
3) Watchlist: CREE, HGSI, SRCL all look ready to move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
CFCP (Coastal Financial--$15.30; +0.55; no options): Savings & loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfcp.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. More thinly traded, but the smaller financials look ready to resume some leadership, and CFCP made a solid move toward a breakout Monday on rising though still slightly below average volume. Accumulation has been good the past two months, and money flow is leading ahead of the price.
Volume: 23.932K Avg Volume: 20.636K
BUY POINT: $15.55 Volume=55K Target=$18.65 Stop=$14.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cfcp.html
SCIO (Scios--$31; +1.54; optionable): Wholesale drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scio.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SCIO is in a 4-month cup with handle pattern with accumulation weeks leading 3 to 1 in the base. Volume ahs surged the past three sessions. Mega volume often leads to breakouts, and this breakout will put SCIO at a new all-time high. That means a lot in a market that looks to be recovering. Early leaders can be big leaders.
Volume: 2.824M Avg Volume: 1.01M
BUY POINT: $32.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$39 Stop=$29.95
POSITION: UIO KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/scio.html
VALM (Valmont Industries--$22.23; +1.73; no options): Farm machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/valm.html
STATUS: Trading range breakout. VALM sports excellent accumulation (6 up weeks to 2 down weeks), and, that accumulation led to a big breakout Monday as the stock cleared resistance at 21 on some very strong, above average volume. It closed almost $1 off of its intraday high (23.18) and thus it might try to test back toward 21 before moving on up. That does not mean it will touch 21, but it may show a bit of weakness Tuesday if the overall market does (big moves usually lead to a bit of profit taking). We will use that as a chance to enter positions when it starts back up.
Volume: 158.242K Avg Volume: 44.863K
BUY POINT: From here: $22.38. After a test of 21.50, 21.75 on rising volume. Volume=120K Target=$26.85 Stop=$20.81
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/valm.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
WM 07/06 Cup 37.1 +3 0 0 5.2M 5.5M 0
SRCL 07/13 Dbl btm 34.8 +0.8 35.25 42.25 723K 558K 32.78
Looks ready for the breakout, rising on strong volume.
RCII 07/06 Cup 53.62 +5.09 0 0 722K 0 0
Huge move on above average volume. Pattern is not great, but it too looks to be attempting to reassert its leadership role.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
We have made a change to the table. Instead of average volume we have included the target volume.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEP 07/25 Put 30.67 +1.37 29.21 24.15 2.9M 4.8M 30.50
Buy not hit. Very low volume on an attempt over the 10 day MVA. Higher volume selling may give the buy.
AMI 07/24 A Wedge 6.1 +0.26 6.77 9.94 91K 173K 6.15
Buy not hit. Looks good on the 50 day MVA.
BLUD 07/24 A Wedge 27.25 +1.16 24.56 29.94 385K 300K 22.55
Current. Another solid up day on rising, above average volume.
BWA 07/24 Put 55.84 +3.12 53.55 49.25 364K 450K 55.25
Current. Closed just over the 200 day MVA on rising volume. Look for some softness to exit.
CFCP 07/29 A Wedge 15.3 +0.55 15.55 18.65 24K 55K 14.35
New.
COLM 07/27 Dbl btm 34.99 +1.39 34.25 39.95 524K 275K 32.45
Current. Strong move.
CREE 07/15 BO 15.04 +0.82 14.05 17 3.3M 2.2M 13.07
Current. Looks really good.
CUB 07/06 Cup 17.25 +0.85 0 0 110K 0 0
DELL 07/27 Rv H&S 24.45 +1.64 23.12 26.15 26M 30M 21.95
Current. Looks strong.
DOCC 07/25 BO 13.3 +0.8 11.9 14.25 404K 200K 11.07
Current. Blasted off.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 2.5 +0.19 4.85 7 5.6M 4M 4.30
DSCM 07/17 Flat 2.6 -0.03 3.05 4.15 225K 300K 2.75
Buy not hit. Below the 50 day MVA.
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 57.76 +2.79 57.95 63 10M 600K 58.50
HGSI 07/22 Test 50 16 +1.02 15.31 18 2.6M 3.6M 14.05
Current. Nice move.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 22.83 +1.26 0 0 997K 1M 0
LLL 07/25 Put 44.45 +0.05 44.85 40.25 2.5M 2M 46.00
Current. Gapped lower, but then rallied up toward the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Won't let it get over 46 on the close.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 37.65 +2.06 0 0 5.2M 0 0
MDT 07/25 Put 38.89 +1.64 36.85 32.75 3.5M 5M 38.25
Buy not hit. Rallying up.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 107.92 +4.47 0 0 2.4M 1.7M 0
PG 07/23 Put 87.22 +3.02 81.45 75.75 4.9M 4M 83.50
No put here. Rallying over the 200 day MVA.
PPDI 07/20 Put 20.21 +0.31 19.79 16.03 1.6M 1.2M 22
Current. Hit the 18 day MVA and then rolled over on higher volume.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 40.43 +2.74 0 0 15M 16M 0
RCII 07/06 Cup 53.62 +5.09 0 0 722K 0 0
ROOM 07/27 Put 43.09 +3.19 39.65 34.24 625K 1M 41
Buy not hit. Rallied with the market for now.
SCIO 07/29 cup hdl 31 +1.54 32.55 39 2.8M 1.5M 29.95
New.
SRCL 07/13 Dbl btm 34.8 +0.8 35.25 42.25 723K 558K 32.78
SRZ 07/15 Put 25.75 +0.85 24.54 21.05 295K 300K 25.54
Rallied over the 18 day MVA on stronger volume.
USPI 07/01 Put 27.6 +1.54 27.19 22.55 184K 400K 25.29
Current. Over the 50 day MVA. We will exit on weakness if we get it, but may have to just close it out.
VALM 07/29 BO 22.23 +1.73 22.38 26.85 158K 120K 20.81
New.
WM 07/06 Cup 37.1 +3 0 0 5.2M 5.5M 0
WTW 05/23 Test BO 43 +2.22 43.7 50 537K 250K 40.64
Current. Very nice move on strong volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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