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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 07/09/2010
CLH (Clean Harbors--$64.89; -0.30; optionable): Environmental cleanup services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clh.html
After Hours: $64.89
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: ABCD upside. Unlike many stocks, CLH did not sell off starting in late April. Instead, it rallied out of a flat base. Why? It is in the environmental cleanup area, and with the BP spill it rallied from May into the third week of June. It finally peaked out for a test, stair-stepping back the past three weeks, moving to the 50 day EMA last week where it found support. It also formed the D point in a short ABCD pattern that is consolidating the run from May. We are looking for CLH to hold here and make a move up to the prior peak (the A point) as our initial target. Great relative strength and in great position to make the run for us.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLH.wmv
Volume: 204.223K Avg Volume: 501.358K
BUY POINT: $66.02 Volume=700K Target=$72.11 Stop=$62.86
POSITION: CLH 10J65.00 - Oct. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/09/2010
JMBA (Jamba, Inc.--$2.38; +0.28; optionable): Beverages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jmba.html
After Hours: $2.38
EARNINGS: 08/16/2010
STATUS: Great surge from March through late April and then the test along with most of the market. JMBA has given up three-quarters of the move, making a pair of bottoms at the 200 day SMA. The 200 day also coincides with the Fibonacci 78% retracement level. A double bottom at that level sets the stage for a run back to the upside, and indeed with solid move Friday after holding back all week suggests that JMBA is ready to make the run higher. Very nice pattern and ready to move in as JMBA continues to the upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JMBA.wmv
Volume: 785.15K Avg Volume: 1.163M
BUY POINT: $2.49 Volume=1.4M Target=$3.57 Stop=$1.97
POSITION: JMBA 10J2.50 - Oct. $2.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/09/2010
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$84.95; +0.31; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
After Hours: $84.95
EARNINGS: 07/20/2010
STATUS: Triangle. MICC broke out from a 7 month flat base in February, posting a nice upside surge to late April. Then it was caught in the market selling, but it did not dive lower as did many stocks. Instead, it formed the current three month triangle, making a series of three higher lows using the 200 day SMA. Last week it bounced off the 200 day for the third time, moving up to the down trendline at the top of the pattern. It may come back a bit before it makes the breakout move, but it is pinching off in the pattern and after holding at the 50 day EMA we may very well get the breakout move. Just going to be patient and let MICC show us the upside breakout. If it can hold it into the close that is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MICC.wmv
Volume: 233.209K Avg Volume: 634.959K
BUY POINT: $86.32 Volume=800K Target=$99.89 Stop=$83.08
POSITION: MICC 10J85.40 - Oct. $85.40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/09/2010
NKTR (Nektar Therapeutics--$12.95; +0.59; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nktr.html
After Hours: $12.95
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Big mover from late 2008 through late March: big runner in the market. It peaked in March, however, and sold off with the rest of the market. As with several stocks we are looking at, however, NKTR is forming a rounded bottom. More accurately in this case it has made a pair of lows on the 200 day SMA, now coincident with the January and February lateral consolidation. That has given NKTR a solid level to find its footing, and on Friday NKTR was surging upside on strong, above average volume; strong volume in a weak volume market. To us that shows NKTR has some serious backing here. As it continues this move we are ready to move in and catch some of the momentum.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NKTR.wmv
Volume: 1.057M Avg Volume: 896.653K
BUY POINT: $13.11 Volume=1.1M Target=$15.74 Stop=$12.02
POSITION: NKTR 10K12.50 - Nov. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 07/09/2010
PVH (Phillips-Van Heusen--$47.95; +0.29; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvh.html
After Hours: $47.95
EARNINGS: 08/16/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. PVH makes pants among other clothing items and its pants are around its ankles right now. Gapped higher in March and rallied to a peak in late April. Then, with the rest of the market, it sold off into May and June, testing the gap and filling it. Bounced twice off that level then came back to test again in late June. This time it did not hold, gapping below its gap up point from March. That makes something of an island reversal. It sold off after that then spent last week bouncing, moving back up to the 200 day SMA and the gap down point. Watching for PVH to fail at this point. If it does then we move in for the downside play. The initial target is the recent low; that move lands a 45%ish gain. It can easily fall from there on down to the February low.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PVH.wmv
Volume: 904.043K Avg Volume: 1.435M
BUY POINT: $46.98 Volume=1.8M Target=$43.00 Stop=$49.11
POSITION: PVH 10U50.00 - Sept. $50p (-56 delta)
Play Date: 07/09/2010
WHR (Whirlpool--$92.39; +2.10; optionable): Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whr.html
After Hours: $92.39
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. Big surge to a peak in late April. A peak indeed. WHR sold back over the next two months, making a series of lower highs even as it keeps a series of constant lows. That is a descending triangle, and supposedly it is supposed to break down more often than not. It does break down, but we have seen it break upside on as many occasions. This time, however, WHR broke lower with a gap. It sold off through the end of June, undercutting the 200 day SMA before rebounding last week as the rest of the market recovered. The move took WHR back up to the May and June lows in the triangle on lower and lower trade. Watching for WHR to fail here and turn back over to resume the selling. The initial target is at prior lows, very doable. That move lands a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WHR.wmv
Volume: 977.66K Avg Volume: 1.93M
BUY POINT: $90.92 Volume=2.2M Target=$82.88 Stop=$93.48
POSITION: WHR 10U95.00 - Sept. $95p (-53 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/14/2010
DLM (Del Monte Foods--$14.85; +0.13; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlm.html
After Hours: $14.85
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Flag. DLM retook the 50 day EMA with gains the first half of the week, tested back to that level Thursday, and then bounced right back up Friday. It is acting just as it should at support, and now if it can continue to work higher it will hit our buy point. To recap: You have to eat no matter what the economic conditions. After a solid March through late April surge that tested toward a 10 year high, DLM tested back through early last week, bracketing the 50 day EMA as it tested. Surged higher starting Tuesday, picking up some big volume Thursday as it gapped to the April peak. Testing back Friday and Monday, holding over the 10 day EMA as it does. Might take another day or two to test, but a very nice setup to make the next break higher. Want to see a move through the buy point on more solid trade.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DLM.wmv
Volume: 1.521M Avg Volume: 1.97M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: DLM 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/29/2010
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$55.78; +1.40; optionable): Clothing stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $55.78
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Rolling. JOSB tracked higher to end the week, but the volume was a tad light for our taste. However, it is in great position for a buy if it can get a small test and then bounce back with better trade. If this one can show some strength next week, things could get interesting. To recap: Looking at JOSB again as it sets up for an upside roll in its range. Strong February to April run and then the test, an up and down range with 55 as the bottom. Nice reach lower Tuesday undercutting the May and June lows, then snapping back on strong, above average volume. Watching for a roll back up in the range, and if JOSB can make the move and make it stick into the close, then we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOSB.wmv
Volume: 167.756K Avg Volume: 392.056K
BUY POINT: $55.43 Volume=500K Target=$63.74 Stop=$51.91
POSITION: JOSB 10J55.00 - Oct. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/15/2010
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$30.10; +0.49; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
After Hours: $30.10
EARNINGS: 07/28/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. NETL blasted higher Wednesday, paused Thursday, and then pushed up a little more to cap the week off. Really nice action Friday with the little intraday test lower that reversed, and this one is looking very ready for a buy. If we can see another test and bounce backed with better volume, it is worth the buy. To recap: Worked laterally to finish up last week, and then tried to bounce Monday. Did not stick the move, but still in good shape at this level. If the stock can get a little fade and hold, we can look to buy it as it sticks a bounce higher. To recap: As with many stocks, a bit of side-step Thursday as NETL pauses after some solid upside that moved it past the early June peak. If it catches fire upside we can start some more positions. To recap: Looking at adding some positions on our current play as NETL has morphed its pattern into a bit of a reverse head and shoulders, forming the right shoulder the past two weeks. Tuesday NETL broke through the neckline resistance on the best volume in over a week, clearing the 50 day EMA on the way and holding just about all of the gain on the session. Solid upside break and ready to move into more positions as NETL continues this new move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NETL.wmv
Volume: 828.273K Avg Volume: 1.432M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=2M Target=$34.89 Stop=$27.79
POSITION: NETL 10J27.50 - Oct. $27.55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/28/2010
STE (Steris--$31.31; -0.01; optionable): Medical appliances and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
After Hours: $31.31
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD upside. Not much changed with this stock from Thursday to Friday as it formed a similar doji right under the 200 day SMA. It is holding up just fine for now, and we can watch for that step forward that holds into the close for out buy trigger. To recap: STE jumped higher to start February and then trending higher up the 10 day EMA into late April. Strong solid run. Since then it has stepped back, forming the B point in early May, the C point in mid-May, then down to the D point mid-June. STE rallied of that point and recaptured the 200 day SMA on that move. The past week it is testing again, this time holding the 200 day SMA and starting to bounce Friday and then again Monday. Nice setup as STE tests the bounce off the D point. As STE breaks higher once more and moves through the buy point, we are ready to move in if it can make it stick toward the close.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/STE.wmv
Volume: 373.521K Avg Volume: 496.616K
BUY POINT: $31.21 Volume=700K Target=$36.95 Stop=$29.87
POSITION: STE 10I30.00 - Sept. $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/22/2010
WBMD (WebMD Health Holdings--$46.68; -0.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbmd.html
After Hours: $46.81
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Flag. WBMD worked along the 50 day EMA all week, and then tried to bounce from there Friday. The move did not stick, but it is showing that it is ready to move. If WBMD makes another push higher, and the move holds, we can open up some positions. To recap: After a good February to April run WBMD tested, and over the past 9 weeks has consolidated, forming a reverse head and shoulders from may to mid-August. Broke higher just over a week back, then a nice, easy pullback the past week on low volume to the 10 day EMA. Excellent test of near support is setting up a new move higher. If WBMD can bounce and make the move stick we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WBMD.wmv
Volume: 97.015K Avg Volume: 317.041K
BUY POINT: $47.22 Volume=450K Target=$54.95 Stop=$46.44
POSITION: WBMD 10I45.00 - Sept. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
DOWNSIDE
Play Date: 07/03/2010
BTU (Peabody Energy--$43.29; +0.57; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
After Hours: $43.29
EARNINGS: 07/20/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. BTU climbed four out of five days this week, but that leaves it testing up towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. With the 200 day SMA also nearby to provide resistance, BTU is still stacked for the move down. We simply wait the next couple of days to see how it tests, and when it starts to lose altitude, we get our entry point. To recap: The market is likely to bounce before it sells significantly more, but in the event it does not (and even if it does), BTU is in position to move downside and make us some money. A week back BTU bumped up against its 200 day SMA as BTU rebounded off the early June low. BTU failed a break through attempt and gapped lower Tuesday. It spent the rest of the week bumping the 18 day EMA and then on Friday started lower, making a new closing low on this selling leg. If it continues to break lower, particularly if the market fails without an upside bounce, we move in for a move to an initial target at 35. That move lands a 35%ish gain and we would take some profit there and then see if it breaks down through that support.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BTU.wmv
Volume: 3.807M Avg Volume: 6.76M
BUY POINT: $42.57 Volume=8M Target=$35.05 Stop=$43.91
POSITION: BTU 10U45.00 - Sept. $45p (-58 delta)
Play Date: 07/06/2010
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$51.07; +1.65; optionable): Steel components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $51.03
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: CLF stepped higher for the third day, and that closed it up just over the 200 day SMA. It still has some very serious resistance overhead, though, with the late June gap down point, as well as that early May low. If it can stall out in the next couple of days, we can move in as it rolls over. To recap: CLF tested the 200 day SMA twice in the past two months, bouncing higher on each test. Last week it tested it again, but this time it did not hold. It broke through that level, made a modest test, then gapped upside Tuesday but flipped over for a loss. Looks to continue lower and we are ready to move in as it does. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLF.wmv
Volume: 5.747M Avg Volume: 8.397M
BUY POINT: $49.08 Volume=10M Target=$40.11 Stop=$52.38
POSITION: CLF 10T45.00 - Oct. $45p (-45 delta)
Play Date: 07/06/2010
DECK (Deckers Outdoor--$47.16; +0.16; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/deck.html
After Hours: $47.16
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: DECK gapped up to the 50 day EMA Thursday and then promptly faded down from that point. It did try to bounce back Friday, but it just cannot find any traction. The stock is at a great level to move in, so with the fade back that sticks, we can pick it up. To recap: DECK came back to test its 50 day EMA last week, and it could not hold. It bounced to end the week, trying to get back above that level. It fell a bit short and rolled over Tuesday on strong, above average volume. There is a gap higher from back in early March, and DECK may just try and fill that. A move down to our target lands a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DECK.wmv
Volume: 579.339K Avg Volume: 1.542M
BUY POINT: $46.64 Volume=1.8M Target=$38.89 Stop=$48.69
POSITION: DECK 10U45.00 - Sept. $45p (-46 delta)
Play Date: 07/08/2010
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$106.64; -0.67; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
After Hours: $106.57
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. The stock is on thin ice still as it tapped up at the 200 day SMA then slid back to form a doji. ICE is right at the buy point, we just need some confirmation before we jump in. If it tests up to that moving average again intraday that is fine, just as long as it can fall from there into the close. When it holds the move lower, that is our cue. To recap: Not all stocks reversed back through resistance on the recent bounce. ICE cracked and it fell hard the past three weeks, slipping under the surface of the 200 day SMA support. Tuesday it rebounded, Wednesday it added a bit more, tapping the 200 day SMA on the high. It also showed a doji on the candlestick chart, and below a resistance point such as the 200 day SMA that can mean a bounce is over. If ICE backslides below the Wednesday close, preferably with a gap, we will look to move in and play another downside leg toward the February lows. That move lands a 55+% gain on the put options.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ICE.wmv
Volume: 823.287K Avg Volume: 1.049M
BUY POINT: $106.64 Volume=1.4M Target=$96.22 Stop=$108.66
POSITION: ICE 10U110.00 - Sept. $110p (-52 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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