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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Thursday plays:
CVTX: Lower volume pullback after the move.
CFFN: More of a pullback than we wanted, but on lower volume. Still held 25.50 as it has of late.
MTXX: Still in the tight pattern with great accumulation.
Best Plays:
1) SSD and COLM: Very nice tests of the breakouts over resistance.
2) WHR: Rolling over for a nice downside play.
3) Watchlist: HGSI testing on low volume. ROOM: need to be ready for a drop.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
SSD (Simpson Manufacturing--$58.85; -0.5; no options): Small tools. Splits 2:1 on 8-19-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssd.html
STATUS: Pre-split with a trend reversal. SSD broke its May downtrend four sessions back on solid, above average volume, and has tested that move the last three sessions. Thursday it tested the 50 day MVA (57.71) on the low as volume rose to near average levels. The test of the 50 day MVA and recovery up off of that level on rising volume indicates support at that level. We like this action a lot.
Volume: 21.9K Avg Volume: 19.5K
BUY POINT: $59.29 Volume=25K Target=$68 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ssd.html
Downside:
WHR (Whirlpool--$55.38; -1.99; optionable): Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whr.html
STATUS: Put. Same story with the big appliance manufacturers. A slowing consumer could mean slowing sales of big ticket items according to the double dippers. Well, that may not be the case in our view, but we will take advantage of the current views. WHR rolled over at the 18 day MVA (57.60) on stronger, above average volume. It looks ready to fall further.
Volume: 1.002M Avg Volume: 555.09K
BUY POINT: $54.97 Volume=800K Target=$51.35 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: WHR UL - Sept. $60p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/whr.html
XOM (Exxon--$33.65; -3.11; optionable): Integrated oil & gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xom.html
STATUS: Put. Weak fuel prices and economic worries are hurting the energy sector. XOM dove lower Thursday on sharply stronger volume. This is a stock that has not formed a double bottom, instead making a sharp V. After testing toward the 50 day MVA just below 38, it has reversed and looks ready to test back down to 30 to form the pattern. We want to take part of that more or less 'natural' move lower.
Volume: 21.654M Avg Volume: 11.513M
BUY POINT: $33.45 Volume=18M Target=$30 Stop=$35.75
POSITION: XOM UU - Sept. $37.50p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xom.html
Revisited:
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$34.44; -0.51; optionable): Sports related clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. COLM blasted over the 50 and 200 day MVA Friday and Monday on some big volume. It has come back to test those levels the past two sessions on lower and lower volume. Thursday it tested right at the MVA's on the low (33.14) and rebounded. This is a really good looking pattern with good accumulation. After the test we want some more positions.
Volume: 290.443K Avg Volume: 177.045K
BUY POINT: $35 Volume=275K Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: TQQ JF - Oct. $30c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/colm.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
CUB 07/06 Cup 20.62 +0.02 0 0 108K 0 0
Below the 50 day MVA and above the 200 day MVA, showing a doji as they test back on lower volume.
PG 07/23 Put 87.87 -1.12 81.45 75.75 5.1M 4M 83.50
A good break over the 50 day MVA and a test of that level on the low. Look for the 50 day MVA (87.25) to hold.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
We have made a change to the table. Instead of average volume we have included the target volume.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
SOX 07/20 BO 0 0 318 350 0 0 329
Exited with the trailing stop.
AMI 07/24 A Wedge 6.68 -0.57 6.77 9.94 418K 173K 6.45
Current. Big pullback after Wednesday's strong move. Never like these immediate, volume reversals. Will watch for the support to hold.
BLUD 07/24 A Wedge 27.89 -0.29 24.56 29.94 268K 300K 22.55
Current. Slightly lower on lower volume. It is holding up well here but may test toward 26 before rallying again.
BLUD 07/15 A Wedge 27.89 -0.29 23.55 28.26 268K 267K 21.55
BRCD 07/30 Rv H&S 16.6 -2.15 20.22 24.94 18M 18M 18.88
Buy not hit. Turned on us before the buy was hit.
CFCP 07/29 A Wedge 14.75 -0.19 15.55 18.65 2K 55K 14.35
Buy not hit. Not bad, testing the 10 day MVA on very, very low volume.
CFFN 07/31 DB hdl 25.71 -0.7 27.25 32.71 64K 183K 25.72
Buy not hit. Testing lower than we want but holding 25.50 on very low volume.
COLM 08/01 Dbl btm 34.44 -0.51 35 39.95 290K 275K 32.55
New buy point.
COLM 07/27 Dbl btm 34.44 -0.51 34.25 39.95 290K 275K 32.95
CREE 07/15 BO 14.49 -0.63 14.05 17 2.6M 2.2M 13.07
Current. Back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Needs the market to hold. No point in letting it fall too far if the market keeps selling.
CUB 07/06 Cup 20.62 +0.02 0 0 108K 0 0
CVTX 07/31 BO 23.76 -1.24 25.25 30 540K 1.3M 23.48
Buy not hit. Close but not there, falling on lower and lower, below average volume. Should rally after this pullback.
DELL 07/27 Rv H&S 24.32 -0.61 23.12 26.15 23M 30M 22.55
Current. Lower volume test of 24 again, where it has tested the last 3 sessions and rebounded.
DOCC 07/25 BO 13.45 -0.1 11.9 14.25 254K 200K 11.07
Current. Holding up well. Volume rose as it tested 13 and rebounded.
DORL 07/30 Dbl btm 38.17 -0.17 37.96 45.55 286K 410K 35.3
Buy alert not issued. Tried the move again, but volume is just not there yet to hold it up.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 2.99 +0.13 4.85 7 3.6M 4M 4.30
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 55.23 -1.86 57.95 63 7.3M 600K 58.50
HGSI 07/22 Test 50 16.9 -0.43 15.31 18 1.8M 3.6M 14.05
Current. Very low volume pullback. Keeping positions.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 16.08 +0.53 0 0 2.2M 1M 0
HRBT 07/30 Dbl btm 26.54 +0.4 27.61 31.75 12K 41K 25.68
Buy not hit. Good session, testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
IMN 07/29 Flat 30.22 -0.22 30.26 36.45 170K 200K 29.55
Current. Pulling back on continued lower volume. Tried to run but the market was not ready for it.
JBLU 08/01 cup hdl 46.32 -0.24 48.65 54.45 122K 350K 44.85
New.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 35.43 -2.42 0 0 4.4M 0 0
MTXX 07/31 A Wedge 9.84 -0.01 10.05 12 6.2K 38K 9.35
Buy not hit. Forming very well.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 109.24 -1.46 0 0 1.5M 1.7M 0
PG 07/23 Put 87.87 -1.12 81.45 75.75 5.1M 4M 83.50
PPDI 07/20 Put 22.48 -0.56 19.79 16.03 378K 1.2M 22
It would not sell down so we exited. May have been premature.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 39.02 -1.73 0 0 12M 16M 0
RCII 07/06 Cup 53.37 -0.14 0 0 338K 0 0
ROOM 07/27 Put 41.2 -1.5 39.65 34.24 514K 1M 41
Buy not it. Testing the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Let it breakdown.
SCIO 07/29 cup hdl 30.01 -1.35 32.55 39 2.1M 1.5M 29.95
Current. Fell to the 18 day MVA, but volume contracted.
SRCL 07/13 Dbl btm 32.57 -0.44 35.25 42.25 797K 558K 32.78
Buy not hit. A bit lower, below the 10 day MVA on rising volume. We will just have to see if it holds the pattern and then rallies for the breakout.
SSD 08/01 PreSplt 58.85 -0.5 59.29 68 22K 25K 56.55
New.
VALM 07/29 BO 22.32 +0.57 22.38 26.85 40K 120K 20.81
Buy alert not issued. Was up at the buy again, but could not hold it. The culprit was low volume.
WHR 08/01 Put 55.38 -1.99 54.97 51.35 1M 800K 56.55
New.
WM 07/06 Cup 36.58 -0.83 0 0 4.2M 5.5M 0
WTW 05/23 Test BO 42.95 -0.7 43.7 50 170K 250K 40.64
Tested back on very low volume.
XOM 08/01 Put 33.65 -3.11 33.45 30 22M 18M 35.75
New.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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