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us stock market, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CHIR; STE
Best Plays:
1) OEX: Ascending wedge breakout looks to be ahead.
2) TEVA: Nice pattern.
3) NBIX: Trying to generate volume on the move.
4) VARI: Nice test of the breakout.
5) Continuing: TELK ready to go again; CCR giving another nice test; TEN: do or die time on the up trendline.
NEW PLAYS
Upside:
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$456.15; -2.67; optionable): S&P 100 options
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Mirroring the action of the S&P 500, the largest 100 cap stocks are poised to make a breakout of the pattern described in the index summaries. We want to partake in that action, but do not anticipate it happening until after the FOMC meeting Tuesday or at some point Thursday. It needs the additional time to consolidate.
Volume: 1.04M Avg Volume: 1.645M
BUY POINT: $459.24 Target=$485 Stop=$456
POSITION: OXB IJ - Sept. $450c (60 delta) OR OXB IL - Sept. $460c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$oex.html
CSTR (Coinstar--$29.99; 0; optionable): Coin counting machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice, low volume handle on top of a 3.5 month base. Volume has tailed of dramatically the past two sessions as CSTR forms its handle above the 10 day MVA (29.35). Monday it tested that level again on the open and then climbed to close at the session high on rising volume. Accumulation is positive at 4 up weeks to 3 down weeks on rising volume. A good shakeout that can give us a nice run up to the recent high as an initial target.
Volume: 162.47K Avg Volume: 239.045K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=359K Target=$34.85 (initial target) Stop=$28.35
POSITION: QLR JE - Oct. $25c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cstr.html
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$67.91; +0.32; optionable): Drug maker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
STATUS: Double bottom. A ragged pattern the past 3 months, but good accumulation and right at resistance at 68. Accumulation is solid in the recent pattern at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Looks ready for a breakout when the market is next ready to go, and that could be Tuesday or Wednesday.
Volume: 617.21K Avg Volume: 977.909K
BUY POINT: $68.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$77.85 Stop=$64.95
POSITION: TVQ LM - Dec. $65c (66 delta) OR TVQ LL - Dec. $60c (81 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teva.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
CSL (Carlisle Companies--$44.02; +0.34; optionable): Rubber & Plastics
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csl.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still in the wedge, ramming up against the breakout point but on volume that dropped off the table, coming in well below average for the first time in over a week. This is a wedge following a cup base, a combination pattern we like. The last three months accumulation has been positive with 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is still well out ahead of this move as it has jumped the last two weeks.
Volume: 89.9K Avg Volume: 163.636K
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=275K Target=$50 Stop=$41.33
POSITION: CSL LH - Dec. $40 c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/csl.html
DNA (Genentech--$35.45; +0.5; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Testing 50 day MVA. No real volume but a nice point gain on the session. It closed right at the buy point for additional but the low volume kept us from entering positions Monday. Looking for a big volume move for more positions.
Volume: 1.305M Avg Volume: 2.609M
BUY POINT: A move over 35.45 on strong volume (orig. $33.65). Volume=3.2M Target=$39.88 Stop=$31.29
POSITION: DNA LF - Dec. $30c (68 delta) OR DNA LE - Dec. $25c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dna.html
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$27.55; -0.97; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After the big move Friday over the 200 day MVA, FSH sold right back down Monday on lower though still above average volume. It held the 50 day MVA on the low (27.40). Looks like one more test before another breakout attempt. Accumulation is good in the pattern at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 falling week on rising volume. Money flow is excellent and leading the way.
Volume: 291.1K Avg Volume: 236.409K
BUY POINT: $28.76 Volume=350K Target=$33 Stop=$26.75
POSITION: FSH LE - Dec. $25call and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsh.html
MIK (Michaels--$37.02; -0.29; optionable): Crafts shop
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Back to the 50 day MVA on the close after testing the 10 day MVA on the low (36). It rallied back up on low volume after the test, mimicking the lower to higher action on the indexes. Still in the handle and looking for the breakout.
Volume: 323.6K Avg Volume: 634.772K
BUY POINT: $38.85 Volume=800K Target=$44.25 Stop=$36.85
POSITION: MIK LG - Dec. $35c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mik.html
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$40.11; +1.11; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/08/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders (of sorts). After Friday's doji NBIX was up, but volume was not, coming in well below average on the move higher. We do not like low volume ascents. It is still within the buy zone, so we will look for more volume to come in Tuesday, and we would like to see another test down to 38.50 again before it does.
Volume: 442.463K Avg Volume: 656.727K
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=800K Target=$45 Stop=$36.87
POSITION: UOT KG - Nov. $35c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nbix.html
OSTE (Osteotech--$10.55; +1.56; optionable): Health services
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oste.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. OSTE lived up to its billing, blasting off Monday out of the cup w/handle pattern on huge volume. For now we ride the positions.
Volume: 894.625K Avg Volume: 117.727K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions. (orig. $9.42) Volume=195K Target=$12.5 Stop=$8.65
POSITION: OQQ KU - Nov. $7.50 c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oste.html
PDX (Pediatrix Medical--$30.5; +0.22; optionable): Health services
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdx.html
STATUS: This is more of a trade than our other plays. PDX gapped higher Monday in reverse action from the rest of the market. It could not, however, hold the move, testing the 10 day MVA on the low (30.03) and rallying to close right in the middle of its range. Volume was a bit higher but still below average. Still looks ripe for a trade up to 34.50.
Volume: 208.6K Avg Volume: 433.5K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=425K Target=$34.55 Stop=$28.41
POSITION: PDX KE - Nov. $25 call and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdx.html
STE (Steris--$22; +0.89; optionable): Medical Appliances
Play Date: 08/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Monday gave us the move though volume was a bit light, coming in stronger a slightly above average. Accumulation and money flow are very good on this stock. Still a buy up to 22.45. Good 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern.
Volume: 197.8K Avg Volume: 468.5K
BUY POINT: New positions up to 22.45 (orig. $21.45). Volume=385K Target=$25 Stop=$19.68
POSITION: STE LW - Dec. $17.50c (89 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ste.html
USPI (United Surgical--$29.29; -1.1; optionable): Health services
Play Date: 08/05/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uspi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A strong move Friday was pushed right back down, but still holding above the 10 day MVA (28.86) on the close. Volume was significantly lower. The lower volume selling is better if there has to be selling. Looking for this to hold and to try another run at the breakout.
Volume: 183.275K Avg Volume: 354.5K
BUY POINT: New positions: $30.42 (orig. $30.22) Volume=575K Target=$34.35 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: QPJ KE - Nov. $25 c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uspi.html
VARI (Varian--$33.65; -0.69; optionable): Scientific & technical
Play Date: 08/07/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. After the strong move Wednesday and Thursday, VARI is pulling back and testing the move much the same as the market and as anticipated. Volume fell below average Monday, showing the attributes of a good test. Good accumulation with 7 up weeks on rising volume versus 4 down weeks on rising volume since April. Now that the stock has tested back we will look at new positions on a resumption of the rally.
Volume: 391.025K Avg Volume: 413.318K
BUY POINT: $34.95 Volume=363K Target=$40 (initial) Stop=$31.75
POSITION: IUA KF - Nov. $30 c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vari.html
WSFS (WSFS Financial--$26.65; +0.65; no options): Regional bank
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsfs.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. Continued the breakout attempt, but volume did not race up, coming in again at average levels. Leary of moves without volume, so best case is that it tests back toward 25 before the FOMC meeting Tuesday and then heading higher. Accumulation is good in the recent patter at 2 up weeks to 1 down week even in that strong selling.
Volume: 37.5K Avg Volume: 36.227K
BUY POINT: After a test toward 25, $26.25 Volume=65K Target=$30.25 Stop=$24.41
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wsfs.html
Downside:
ITW (Illinois Took Works--$65.67; -0.33; optionable): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itw.html
STATUS: Put. Still fighting at the 50 day MVA, but on rising volume and holding the 18 day MVA on the session low. We are not too eager about getting into any new short positions unless we see the indexes start to breakdown. Has potential still, but we will be patient.
Volume: 900.9K Avg Volume: 1.082M
BUY POINT: $63.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$60.04 Stop=$66
POSITION: ITW UM - Sept. $65p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itw.html
SBC (SBC Communications--$26.85; -0.11; optionable): Telecommunication services
Play Date: 08/05/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbc.html
STATUS: Put (failing test of down trendline). Still unable to clear the 18 day MVA, closing right below that level as well as below the May down trendline. Volume has been lower and lower. It needs to fall or we close the position.
Volume: 6.014M Avg Volume: 8.748M
BUY POINT: New positions at 25.65 (orig $25.88). Volume=8M Target=$22.35 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: SBC UF - Sept. $30p (-72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sbc.html
TKTX (Transkaryotic Therapies--$39.41; +1.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tktx.html
STATUS: Low volume rally. Still low volume, but cleared the 200 day MVA (38.60) Monday when many stocks were falling. It still may fail given the low volume, but we need to see it roll over on much stronger volume.
Volume: 267.888K Avg Volume: 559.136K
BUY POINT: $37.65 Volume=858K Target=$33.65 Stop=$38.85
POSITION: UFT UH - Sept. $40 put (-78 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tktx.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
NOTE: We have placed target volume in place of average volume so you can gauge how the stock is performing relative to our target.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 08/12 A Wedge 456.15 -2.67 459.24 485 1M 0 456
New.
BRCD 07/17 BO 14.75 -0.61 19.8 25 15M 17M 19
Sagged lower, but up off of the low as volume backed off after the bad ELX news.
CCR 08/06 BO 53.4 -0.17 50.55 58.55 1.8M 2M 50.35
Current. Very nice test of the breakout, tapping 52 on the low. May snug up a bit more toward 52 before resuming the rally.
CHIR 07/30 BO 38.89 +0.99 33.95 39.94 2.8M 3.8M 37.55
Current. Another move higher on lower though still very decent volume.
CSL 08/10 A Wedge 44.02 +0.34 44.44 50 90K 275K 41.33
Buy not hit.
CSTR 08/12 cup hdl 29.99 0 30.55 34.85 162K 359K 28.35
New.
D 07/27 Put 62.3 +1.11 58.55 54.25 1.5M 2M 61.45
Buy not hit. Over the 200 day MVA on rising volume. Uncle.
DNA 08/03 Test 50 35.45 +0.5 33.65 39.88 1.3M 3.2M 33.45
Current.
FSH 08/10 BO 27.55 -0.97 28.76 33 291K 350K 26.75
Buy not hit.
GENZ 07/24 Flat 23.44 +0.15 21.31 24.95 1.6M 500K 21.95
Current. Still holding up on lower volume, awaiting another market move.
IMN 08/06 cup hdl 31.16 -0.76 31.11 36.45 297K 200K 30.55
IMN 07/29 Flat 31.16 -0.76 30.26 36.45 297K 200K 30.55
Current. Testing the breakout again, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low on lower volume. So far so good though steeper than we wanted.
INLD 08/03 A Wedge 2.95 -0.02 3.45 5.05 778K 1.1M 2.95
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern. This is a patience play.
ISIS 07/31 BO 9.8 +0.06 9.05 12 394K 936K 8.65
Current. Gapped higher then sold back but held a positive gain on lower, below average volume. Still solid.
ITW 08/03 Put 65.67 -0.33 63.65 60.04 901K 1.2M 66
Buy not hit. Maybe, but not going to rush it if it falls.
IVGN 08/03 BO 36.29 -0.16 36.1 39.88 799K 1.5M 33.57
Current. Lower volume test lower, but recovered almost all of the loss. Good action.
JCOM 07/17 A Wedge 19.1 -0.3 16.65 20 116K 120K 17.75
Current. JCOM tested the 10 day MVA on the low and recovered on average volume. Looking for another bounce to give us another point to take the rest of our profit.
MIK 08/10 DB hdl 37.02 -0.29 38.85 44.25 324K 800K 36.85
Buy not hit.
MMSI 07/27 Dbl btm 16.35 -0.32 17.85 22.25 143K 255K 16.25
Buy not hit. Testing the bottom of the uptrend channel, showing a doji.
NBIX 08/08 Cup 40.11 +1.11 39.65 45 442K 800K 36.87
Buy alert not issued. Low volume move up; looking for more volume.
OSTE 08/10 cup hdl 10.55 +1.56 9.42 12.5 895K 195K 8.91
Current. Blasted off.
PDLI 07/15 BO 13.55 +0.2 12.29 15 1.4M 3.5M 12.44
Current. Another move up but on no volume. Good consolidating action.
PDX 08/10 Test 50 30.5 +0.22 30.55 34.55 209K 425K 28.41
Buy alert not issued. Looks ready.
SBC 08/05 Put 26.85 -0.11 25.88 22.35 6M 8M 27.55
Current. Holding at the resistance.
SIE 08/08 Test 50 21.92 -1.13 23.35 27.96 1.1M 500K 20.95
Current. Sold on even stronger volume than the gains after hitting 24.45 on the high. This one is really getting volatile.
STE 08/03 cup hdl 22 +0.89 21.16 25 547K 385K 20.85
Current. Solid move.
STEM 07/27 Test 50 1.3 -0.08 1.87 2.45 84K 80K 1.74
Current. Holding at the July low on lower and lower volume.
TECH 08/01 DB hdl 28.27 +0.02 27.76 32 329K 565K 26.65
Current. Not bad action, holding 28 on continued below average volume. Consolidating with the market.
TELK 07/25 Flat 13.6 -0.28 13.35 16 263K 200K 13
Current. Looks ready to move.
TEN 08/08 Test BO 7.22 -0.18 7.55 9.94 163K 225K 7.15
Current. Holding at the bottom of the uptrend channel, showing a doji right on that level on lower volume. Looks ready to attempt another move up.
TEN 07/27 Test BO 7.22 -0.18 7.43 9.94 163K 250K 7.15
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 67.91 +0.32 68.25 77.85 617K 1.2M 64.95
New.
TKTX 08/07 Put 39.41 +1.06 37.65 33.65 268K 858K 38.85
Buy point not hit.
USPI 08/05 DB hdl 29.29 -1.1 30.22 34.35 183K 575K 28.11
Current. Sold back to test the breakout on lower volume.
VARI 08/07 Rv H&S 33.65 -0.69 34.95 40 391K 363K 33.95
Current. Nice low volume test of the breakout.
VFC 08/10 DB hdl 41.79 +0.54 40.65 45 556K 440K 40.05
Current. Rallied on rising, above average volume.
WSFS 08/10 Rv H&S 26.65 +0.65 26.25 30.25 38K 65K 24.41
Buy alert not issued. Rising on low volume.
YUM 08/05 Put 29.25 -0.07 27.96 23.65 1.5M 2M 26
Buy not hit. Iffy now.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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