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us stock market, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: MIK; CSL; TECH; WSFS; OEX; CCR
Best Plays:
1) CSTR: Stronger volume. Looks ready.
2) EXPE: Looks like a good trade.
3) HGSI: Tested lower and rallying well.
4) CSL: Strong move on rising, above average volume
5) FSH: Making the move.
6) Continuing: TELK is makign the move.
NEW PLAYS
Upside:
EXPE (Expedia--$49.74; +2.40; optionable): Online travel reservations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Trade. EXPE has been banging around from 43 to 50 over the past 3 weeks, and with the market looking at bit better it looks as if it can make a move out of the range. Wednesday showed strong volume back up near average as the stock traded in a $5 range intraday, tapping 45 on the low. We want to make a play up to the 200 day MVA near 55. That gives us a great move and a great profit. A trade so we are looking at option positions.
Volume: 2.56M Avg Volume: 2.604M
BUY POINT: $50.06 Volume=2.8M Target=$55 Stop=$46.56
POSITION: UED JI - Oct. $45c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/expe.html
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$17.71; +0.88; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Break over resistance. The sector has performed well, and after a pullback Tuesday to take some of the profits, biotechs look ready to move again. Volume on HGSI Wednesday was the best in weeks, well above average after testing the 18 day MVA on the low (16.05). We are ready to jump on board on another run up.
Volume: 3.272M Avg Volume: 2.469M
BUY POINT: $18.15 Volume=3.5M Target=$23 Stop=$16.65
POSITION: HQI JC - Oct. $15c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hgsi.html
SIAL (Sigma-Aldrich--$50.91; +2.09; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sial.html
STATUS: Breakout. A wild ride down in the July selling as market leaders were taken out, SIAL has returned to its old high at 50. It has tested the move, and was up sharply Wednesday on rising, average volume. Accumulation in the pattern is positive (3 up weeks to 2 down weeks), and SIAL looks ready to make a new high here. Good accumulation and good price/volume action.
Volume: 798.627K Avg Volume: 739.454K
BUY POINT: $51.45 Volume=1M Target=$59.75 Stop=$47.85
POSITION: IAQ JI - Oct. $45c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sial.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$464.44; +19.14; optionable): S&P 100 options
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Made the breakout of the wedge Wednesday on rising volume. It has the 50 day MVA (467.34) directly ahead, but it has the momentum to carry further.
Volume: 1.04M Avg Volume: 1.645M
BUY POINT: New positions: over 468 (orig. $459.24). Target=$485 Stop=$456
POSITION: OXB IJ - Sept. $450c (60 delta) OR OXB IL - Sept. $460c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$oex.html
CSTR (Coinstar--$30.43; +0.82; optionable): Coin counting machines
Play Date: 08/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started the move higher Wednesday, rising on strong, above average volume. It did not quite take out the buy point on the close, but we like the rising volume. Accumulation is positive at 4 up weeks to 3 down weeks on rising volume. Looks ready.
Volume: 282.58K Avg Volume: 237.363K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=359K Target=$34.85 (initial target) Stop=$28.35
POSITION: QLR JE - Oct. $25c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cstr.html
CSL (Carlisle Companies--$44.90; +1.44; optionable): Rubber & Plastics
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csl.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Making the breakout move Wednesday on rising, above average volume. Again, this wedge after a cup base is a pattern with strength. It is still a buy up to 45.25. The last three months accumulation has been positive with 4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is still well out ahead of this move as it has jumped the last two weeks.
Volume: 260.4K Avg Volume: 165.045K
BUY POINT: New positions up to 45.25 (orig. $44.44). Volume=275K Target=$50 Stop=$41.33
POSITION: CSL LH - Dec. $40 c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/csl.html
DNA (Genentech--$34.85; +0.7; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Testing 50 day MVA. Tested all the way to the 50 day MVA on the low (33) and recovered. Volume remained below average. Needs to get over the resistance on strong volume.
Volume: 1.709M Avg Volume: 2.573M
BUY POINT: A move over 35.45 on strong volume (orig. $33.65). Volume=3.2M Target=$39.88 Stop=$31.29
POSITION: DNA LF - Dec. $30c (68 delta) OR DNA LE - Dec. $25c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dna.html
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$28.80; +0.91; optionable): Wholesale electronics
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gave us that one more test we were looking for and then made the breakout move over the 200 day MVA after testing the 50 day MVA on the low (27.41). Volume was again above average and rising on the move. Accumulation is good in the pattern at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 falling week on rising volume. Still a buy on this move.
Volume: 335.1K Avg Volume: 238.863K
BUY POINT: New positions up to 29 (orig. $28.76) Volume=350K Target=$33 Stop=$26.75
POSITION: FSH LE - Dec. $25call and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsh.html
MIK (Michaels--$40.59; +3.44; optionable): Crafts shop
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Explosive move Wednesday on rising, above average volume. This is exactly what we were anticipating from MIK. While our target is 44.25, we view MIK as a long term position if it will continue to move well and the market does not roll over again.
Volume: 822.6K Avg Volume: 598.272K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions (taken at $38.85). Volume=800K Target=$44.25 Stop=$36.85
POSITION: MIK LG - Dec. $35c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mik.html
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$40.75; +2.43; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/08/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders (of sorts). NBIX tested the 18 day MVA on the low and took off, moving well into the breakout point. Volume, however, remained disappointing, coming in lower and below average. It is difficult to watch a stock move higher and not act, but low volume ascents are prone with trouble and we usually let them go by. We will watch for volume to come in, and if it does then act if it is still in range.
Volume: 569.141K Avg Volume: 652.5K
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=800K Target=$45 Stop=$36.87
POSITION: UOT KG - Nov. $35c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nbix.html
PDX (Pediatrix Medical--$30; +0.31; optionable): Health services
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdx.html
STATUS: Trade off the 50 day MVA (30.18). PDX keeps toying with the buy point, but it does not show sufficient volume when it does so we have not yet issued the buy. Wednesday it showed a doji, testing the 18 day MVA on the low (29.15) and recovering for a small gain. It could be ready for that trade up to 34.50, though it was disappointing it did not move with the market Wednesday.
Volume: 177K Avg Volume: 433.363K
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=425K Target=$34.55 Stop=$28.41
POSITION: PDX KE - Nov. $25 call and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdx.html
STE (Steris--$21.32; -0.14; optionable): Medical Appliances
Play Date: 08/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Of all the poor plays (on our part), we got stopped out of STE Wednesday when it slightly undercut the 10 day MVA on the low (20.77). It successfully tested that level on low volume and recovered. It is still in good shape, and we are looking at re-entering the position. Good 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern.
Volume: 407.1K Avg Volume: 473.545K
BUY POINT: New positions up to 22.45 (orig. $21.45). Volume=385K Target=$25 Stop=$19.68
POSITION: STE LW - Dec. $17.50c (89 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ste.html
USPI (United Surgical--$28.76; +1.63; optionable): Health services
Play Date: 08/05/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uspi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UPSI was in trouble, selling below the 50 day MVA Tuesday but then recovering Wednesday on equally strong volume. We will now see if it can continued the move, but if not we will close it out.
Volume: 476.335K Avg Volume: 353.545K
BUY POINT: Holding current positions (orig. $30.22) Volume=575K Target=$34.35 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: QPJ KE - Nov. $25 c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uspi.html
VARI (Varian--$34.45; +1.1; optionable): Scientific & Technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the test VARI started back up Wednesday on rising, though still below average volume. This is the test and the move we were looking for. We want to see stronger volume on the next move up to take more positions. Accumulation weeks in the base outnumber distribution weeks 5 to 2; very good buying during the base.
Volume: 365.65K Avg Volume: 414.454K
BUY POINT: New positions: $34.95 Volume=363K Target=$40 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: IUA KF - Nov. $30 c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vari.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
NOTE: We have placed target volume in place of average volume so you can gauge how the stock is performing relative to our target.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 08/12 A Wedge 74.92 +3.02 459.24 485 8.4M 0 456
Current. Hit the buy today.
BRCD 07/17 BO 15.05 +0.88 19.8 25 20M 17M 19
Up on very strong volume during the session and up over $2 after the close.
CCR 08/06 BO 54.6 +2.5 50.55 58.55 2.5M 2M 50.35
Current. Making the breakout on strong, above average volume.
CHIR 07/30 BO 39.61 +2.43 33.95 39.94 3.8M 3.8M 37.55
Stopped out Tuesday, but then roared ahead Wednesday on strong volume. We made our money on the play, but it looks as if we could have made some more.
CSL 08/10 A Wedge 44.9 +1.44 44.44 50 260K 275K 41.33
Current.
CSTR 08/12 cup hdl 30.43 +0.82 30.55 34.85 283K 359K 28.35
Buy not hit. Looks ready.
D 07/27 Put 63.2 +2 58.55 54.25 1.6M 2M 61.45
Buy not hit. Recovering.
DNA 08/03 Test 50 34.85 +0.7 33.65 39.88 1.7M 3.2M 33.45
Current.
EXPE 08/14 BO 49.74 +2.4 50.06 55 2.6M 2.8M 46.56
New.
FITB 08/07 Put 66.12 +2.42 63.65 60 2.8M 3.3M 65
Buy alert not issued. Turned up sharply.
FSH 08/10 BO 28.8 +0.91 28.76 33 335K 350K 26.75
Buy alert not issued. Is now making the move on strong volume. It looks ready.
GENZ 07/24 Flat 23.94 +2.35 21.31 24.95 3.1M 500K 21.95
Stopped out w/a trailing stop Tuesday and it rallied sharply Wednesday on low volume. If it gets more volume on a further move, we will look at new positions.
HGSI 08/14 Test 18 17.71 +0.88 18.15 23 3.3M 3.5M 16.65
New.
IMN 08/06 cup hdl 30.85 -0.25 31.11 36.45 410K 200K 30.55
Stop hit. IMN was in a plunge and we exited early; then it rebounded to close on top of the 10 day MVA on very strong volume. Tough call given the slaughter it was taking. Getting way too wild.
IMN 07/29 Flat 30.85 -0.25 30.26 36.45 410K 200K 30.55
INLD 08/03 A Wedge 2.93 -0.01 3.45 5.05 192K 1.1M 2.95
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern. Yawn.
ISIS 07/31 BO 10.88 +0.88 9.05 12 793K 936K 8.65
Current. Beautiful move on strong volume.
ITW 08/03 Put 66.39 +1.52 63.65 60.04 1.3M 1.2M 66
Buy not hit. Another one heading higher.
IVGN 08/03 BO 36.49 +1.17 36.1 39.88 1M 1.5M 33.57
Current. Solid move Wednesday after the Tuesday test lower.
JCOM 07/17 A Wedge 19.99 +0.64 16.65 20 343K 120K 17.75
Current. Nice rally but volume is what was impressive.
MIK 08/10 DB hdl 40.59 +3.44 38.85 44.25 823K 800K 36.85
Current. Huge move.
MMSI 07/27 Dbl btm 17.45 +1.15 17.85 22.25 146K 255K 16.25
Buy alert not issued. Big move back into the channel, but not enough volume.
MTG 08/03 Put 60.5 +1.5 58.45 54 1.4M 800K 60.05
Current. Hit the buy and then reversed to close at the downtrend line on massive volume. We will see if it breaks down Thursday, but we are not counting on it with the big volume reversal.
NBIX 08/08 Cup 40.75 +2.43 39.65 45 569K 800K 36.87
Buy not issued.
OSTE 08/10 cup hdl 9.66 -0.64 9.42 12.5 261K 195K 8.91
Current. Testing lower still on lower volume.
PDLI 07/15 BO 13.18 +0.73 12.29 15 2.2M 3.5M 12.44
Exited Tuesday with a weak biotech sector. Tested lower again Wednesday and rallied. Volume still below average. If it forms better we will consider it again.
PDX 08/10 Test 50 30 +0.31 30.55 34.55 177K 425K 28.41
Buy alert not issued.
SBC 08/05 Put 28.14 +1.51 25.88 22.35 7.4M 8M 27.55
Current. Over the down trendline on continued below average volume. On a test Wednesday we exit.
SIAL 08/14 BO 50.91 +2.09 51.45 59.75 799K 1M 47.85
New.
SIE 08/08 Test 50 22.47 +1.15 23.35 27.96 521K 500K 20.95
Current. A solid comeback on stronger, above average volume. Looking better but still wild.
STE 08/03 cup hdl 21.32 -0.14 21.16 25 407K 385K 20.85
Stopped out, but premature.
STEM 07/27 Test 50 1.41 +0.1 1.87 2.45 38K 80K 1.74
Rallying back up but on low volume. Look for resistance at 1.60.
TECH 08/01 DB hdl 29.85 +2 27.76 32 681K 565K 26.65
Current. Strong move up over the 200 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Very good action.
TELK 07/25 Flat 13.99 +0.63 13.35 16 376K 200K 13
Current. Making the bounce up off the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Very good.
TEN 08/08 Test BO 6.76 -0.33 7.55 9.94 182K 225K 7.15
Current. Breaking down. Time to exit.
TEN 07/27 Test BO 6.76 -0.33 7.43 9.94 182K 250K 7.15
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 67.93 -0.6 68.25 77.85 1.2M 1.2M 64.95
Current. Doji at the old high as volume backed off. May test toward 67 before moving higher.
TKTX 08/07 Put 38.94 +1.08 37.65 33.65 569K 858K 38.85
Buy alert not issued. Won't give it up so we won't fight it.
USPI 08/05 DB hdl 28.76 +1.63 30.22 34.35 476K 575K 28.11
Current.
VARI 08/13 Test BO 34.45 +1.1 34.25 40 366K 415K 32
Current. Nice rebound off of the 200 day MVA.
VARI 08/07 Rv H&S 34.45 +1.1 34.95 40 366K 363K 33.95
VFC 08/10 DB hdl 42.23 +0.94 40.65 45 495K 440K 40.05
Current. Rallying again Wednesday on continued above average volume.
WSFS 08/10 Rv H&S 28.87 +2.02 26.25 30.25 51K 65K 24.41
Super move on continued above average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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