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Investmenthouse Newsletter
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Free Weekend Newsletter for August 18, 2002 |
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TABLE Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) PRE-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY 5) IPOs |
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Free Stock Split Email Notices Investing Q & As Glossary
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1) MARKET SUMMARY
A quiet expirations session.
- Few fireworks on options expiration.
- Major indexes fail again to take out the 50 day MVA while smallcaps post a solid advance.
- Michigan sentiment lower than expected, but stabilizing.
- Pullback to near term support before another run attempt.
- Subscriber Questions.
See full story. Try "The Daily" with no risk for 2 weeks!
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don’t let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock’s movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down. Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don’t try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$61.07; +0.06; no options): Urban ranchers. Splits 2:1 on 8-20-02.
Company Profile
STATUS: Breaking over the 50 day MVA (60.47). Tried to start the move Friday and we may have got a bit overeager jumping in, but near the split date with a bit of decent action Friday. It ended up showing a doji and holding above the 50 day MVA. Looks ready for a pre-split move into the split Tuesday that can give us a good run. This is also one we think buyers will come into after the split occurs. It is making a lot of money but is rather pricey on an absolute basis for many investors. We have seen many economically sensitive stocks run right into and through their splits, and TSCO has set up a two-week consolidation in a narrow range to prepare for it.
Volume: 81.5K Avg Volume: 137.041K.
BUY POINT: $61.55 Volume=202K Target=$70 Stop=$57.24.
POSITION: Stock (no option chain).
Click here for more information on our Stock Split Report! | |
3) Technical Play
TTWO (Take-Two Intera--$23.4; +0.15; optionable): System software.
Company Profile
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A beautiful pattern developing, a 9-week base that has shown just the right attributes so far: aggressive but not too heavy selling on the correction, calm and lower volume trade at the bottom, and some rising volume as the stock moved up the right side of the pattern. It has now spent the last two sessions pulling back to test the move up the right side of the cup. During the base accumulation has been excellent with 4 up weeks on rising volume and 1 down week on lower volume. Looking for the handle to form up over the next 2 to 3 sessions and then give us the strong volume breakout.
Volume: 868.166K Avg Volume: 1.012M.
BUY POINT: $24.75 Volume=1.5M Target=$29.85 Stop=$22.95.
POSITION: TUO LD - Dec. $20 c (73 delta) and/or Stock.
Click here for more information on our Technical Traders Report! | |
4) Covered Call Play
CTX - Centex Corp. is currently trading at $50.05. The September $50 Calls (CTXIJ) are trading at $3.20. That provides a return of about 7% if CTX is above $50 on expiration Friday in September.
Company Profile
Click here for more information on our Covered Calls Service! | |
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5) IPOs
A slew of Russian companies, inspired by a recent successful Initial Public Offering by dairy firm Wimm-Bill-Dann, is rushing to do the same in a flashback to 1997 when issuing a Eurobond was the fashion.
The 1998 economic crisis killed the Euromania. And those who managed to make issues before the crisis had problems trying to service their debts after the rouble was devalued.
(This IPO story is continued on our website in the IPO Forum.)
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.

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