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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: OSTE; NBIX; USPI
Best Plays:
1) BMS: Nice pattern and strong move.
2) CHIR: Another nice move on strong volume.
3) CELG: Looks ready to make the move on rising volume.
4) NBIX: Tested and now moving up on rising volume.
5) HGSI: Still looking solid. Just add volume.
6) Watchlist/continuing: CSTR; TELK. VARI and VFC look ready to move again after this breather.
NEW PLAYS
BMS (Bemis--$51.71; +2.44; optionable): Packages and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bms.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulder. BMS formed a lateral move the past two weeks and Wednesday jumped over the 200 day MVA (50.88) on a sharp increase in volume to well above average levels. A strong move with money flow strong and ahead of the price move. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. We are looking to get on here and make a nice trade up to the 57 range. If it goes further, great. Another economically sensitive stock performing well.
Volume: 538.2K Avg Volume: 339.363K
BUY POINT: $52.02 Volume=450K Target=$56.94 Stop=$48.38
POSITION: BMS AJ - Jan. $50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bms.html
CHIR (Chiron--$41.06; +1.79; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chir.html
STATUS: Breakout over 200 day MVA (40.98). CHIR has made us money before, and it looks to be on the move again. After consolidating for the past 7 sessions, the last three on lower volume, CHIR started up Wednesday on rising volume. It cleared the 200 day MVA on the close. Excellent money flow, and accumulation leads distribution 6 weeks to 2 weeks since March. We are looking for a trade up to the March highs on this move.
Volume: 2.853M Avg Volume: 2.712M
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=3.5M Target=$47 Stop=$38
POSITION: CIQ JU - Oct. $37.50c (72 delta) OR CIQ AU - Jan. 37.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chir.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
CBH (Commerce Bancorp, NJ--$46.11; +0.26; optionable): Regional bank
Play Date: 08/19/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle in this 12-week base, holding above the 10 day MVA on the handle lows (45.30). Volume has trailed off in the handle as you want. We are waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 353.9K Avg Volume: 603.181K
BUY POINT: $47.25 Volume=902K Target=$54.33 Stop=$43.94
POSITION: CBH LH - Dec. $40 c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbh.html
CELG (Celgene--$19.61; +0.56; optionable): Biotech
Play Date: 08/17/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
STATUS: Testing break over resistance. Starting the move we are looking for after the consolidation over the 10 day MVA (18.82). Volume was up for the second session in a row. Looks ready to make a move as money flow is still shooting out ahead of the price during this consolidation. The play is up to the 200 day MVA near 24 on a move up that gathers some volume.
Volume: 851.255K Avg Volume: 1.002M
BUY POINT: $19.85 Volume=1M Target=$23.85 Stop=$18.46
POSITION: LQH JC - Oct. $15 c (85 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/celg.html
CYMI (Cymer--$29.84; +1.33; optionable): Chip equipment
Play Date: 08/17/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Breaking the downtrend. After a choppy day Tuesday CYMI was up again Wednesday on rising volume just as we wanted. Now it looks as if it is a run up to the target toward the end of the week.
Volume: 1.484M Avg Volume: 1.72M
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($27.95). Volume=2M Target=$31 Stop=$25.99
POSITION: CQG KE - Nov. $25 c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
DNA (Genentech--$35.6; +0.6; optionable): Biotech
Play Date: 08/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still moving in the wedge, now close to the top. It is right at the breakout point, but volume backed way off on the move. It will need more volume to make the breakout.
Volume: 1.456M Avg Volume: 2.601M
BUY POINT: New positions: 35.65 (orig. $33.65). Volume=3.2M Target=$39.88 Stop=$33.45
POSITION: DNA LF - Dec. $30c (68 delta) OR DNA LE - Dec. $25c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dna.html
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$18.05; +0.93; optionable): Biotech
Play Date: 08/14/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Moving up again in its own wedge though volume the past four sessions has backed off each day. Looks ready for the breakout but needs more volume on the move.
Volume: 1.38M Avg Volume: 2.495M
BUY POINT: $18.15 Volume=3.5M Target=$23 Stop=$16.65
POSITION: HQI JC - Oct. $15c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hgsi.html
ISLE (Isle of Capri Casino--$21.75; +0.03; optionable): Resorts and Casinos
Play Date: 08/19/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isle.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle of the 3.5 month base (4 to 3 accumulation). Wednesday it gapped higher toward a breakout but the volume was not there. It tried a break Tuesday as well but could not hold the move. We are going to let it make its move and see if it holds through the close; that is when we move in. Money flow is still moving up ahead of the price move in the stock.
Volume: 280.775K Avg Volume: 257.681K
BUY POINT: $22.02 Volume=392K Target=$26.15 Stop=$20.25
POSITION: QEP AW - Jan $17.50 c (77 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isle.html
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$81.28; +1.63; optionable): Russell 2000 (small cap) index shares
Play Date: 08/17/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Solid move Wednesday on rising volume. Heading toward the 50 day MVA (82.46) and a rendezvous with the target.
Volume: 1.256M Avg Volume: 1.528M
BUY POINT: Now riding current positions (79.02; 80.15). Volume=2M Target=$82.65 Stop=$77.25
POSITION: IWM KO - Nov. $75 c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iwm.html
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$40.1; +2.08; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/08/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Okay, the test of the 200 day MVA is coming to an end successfully on some rising though still below average volume. Looks ready for a further move up.
Volume: 640.012K Avg Volume: 659.5K
BUY POINT: After a test of 39, $39.65 Volume=800K Target=$45 Stop=$36.87
POSITION: UOT KG - Nov. $35c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nbix.html
NWRE (Neoware--$16.07; -0.03; optionable): Hardware, networking
Play Date: 08/19/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwre.html
STATUS: Testing 18 day MVA. Huge breakout Tuesday and then gapped higher Wednesday but gave up the gain, again on heavy volume. The volume was higher than the breakout; that could be an ominous sign and we will keep a close watch on it. Bumping up the stop point to 14.55. NWRE has good accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume the last two months).
Volume: 1.094M Avg Volume: 290.772K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($15.05) Volume=410K Target=$17.94 Stop=$14.55
POSITION: QQA LV - Dec. $12.50 c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nwre.html
PRX (Pharmaceutical Resources--$27.33; -0.22; optionable): Generic drugs
Play Date: 08/20/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding in the handle of the 10-week base, though it tested lower on stronger, average volume Wednesday before bouncing back. Good accumulation at 2 upside weeks on rising volume to zero down weeks on rising volume. Need to see the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 329.8K Avg Volume: 338.09K
BUY POINT: $28.91 Volume=525K Target=$34.65 Stop=$26.89
POSITION: PRX KE - Nov. $25c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prx.html
TTWO (Take-Two Intera--$26.29; +1.01; optionable): System software
Play Date: 08/17/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttwo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Took a day off Tuesday and then continued the solid move Wednesday. Volume tailed back to average, but it has been solid on the move, particularly the breakout.
Volume: 917.808K Avg Volume: 1.02M
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($24.75). New positions over 26.55. Volume=1.5M Target=$29.85 Stop=$22.95
POSITION: TUO LD - Dec. $20 c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttwo.html
UNTD (United Online--$12.31; -1.19; optionable): Internet service and software
Play Date: 08/17/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Trading rang/flat base. Two solid up sessions and then it came back to test the 10 day MVA on the Wednesday low (11.81) before rebounding a bit to the close. Volume remained strong, matching Tuesday; we want to see volume back off on selling. It is still holding the breakout, but needs to do so here.
Volume: 2.006M Avg Volume: 637.772K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($12.03) Volume=785K Target=$14.65 Stop=$11.19
POSITION: QAB LB - Dec. $10 c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/untd.html
USPI (United Surgical--$32.32; +2.16; optionable): Specialized healthcare
Play Date: 08/05/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uspi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent. Strong move Wednesday on a big jump in volume. A very strong move and now riding toward the target.
Volume: 751.329K Avg Volume: 965.09K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($30.22). Volume=575K Target=$34.35 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: QPJ KE - Nov. $25 c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uspi.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
NOTE: We have placed target volume in place of average volume so you can gauge how the stock is performing relative to our target.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 08/12 A Wedge 480.04 +6.01 459.24 485 0 467
Current. Expecting a move to the target Thursday or Friday.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 41.08 -0.05 40.65 48 2M 3.3M 39.94
Current. Testing back on lower volume. Still well above the 10 day MVA (40.15).
BMS 08/21 BO 51.71 +2.44 52.02 56.94 538K 450K 48.38
New.
BRCD 07/17 BO 15.86 +0.12 19.8 25 15M 17M 19
BRCM 08/17 CCall 20.84 +1.72 19.2 19.8 11M 9M 17.25
Current. Rallying over the 50 day MVA on stronger volume.
CBH 08/19 cup hdl 46.11 +0.26 47.25 54.33 354K 902K 43.94
Buy not hit.
CCR 08/06 BO 53.86 +0.36 50.55 58.55 1.6M 2M 51.95
Current. Consolidating well, moving up the 10 day MVA as it does. Showed strong volume Wednesday; may be ready for more.
CELG 08/17 Test BO 19.61 +0.56 19.85 23.85 851K 1M 18.46
Buy not hit. Getting close.
CHIR 08/21 BO 41.06 +1.79 41.25 47 2.9M 3.5M 38
New.
CREE 08/15 A Wedge 16.91 +0.42 15.42 18 2.4M 2.9M 15.94
Current. Recovering a bit but still below the 200 day MVA. Needs to clear this Thursday or Friday or it could be some trouble.
CSL 08/17 A Wedge 46.25 +0.11 45.55 50 217K 275K 42.36
Current. Moving up slowly but showing doji's.
CSL 08/10 A Wedge 46.25 +0.11 44.44 50 217K 275K 43.75
CSTR 08/12 cup hdl 32.3 -0.38 32.5 36.65 289K 359K 30.22
Current. This looks ready to make another move with a doji right over the 10 day MVA.
CYMI 08/17 BO 29.84 +1.33 27.95 31 1.5M 2M 28.45
Current.
DNA 08/17 Test 50 35.6 +0.6 35.65 39.88 1.5M 3.2M 33.15
Close to the buy.
DNA 08/03 Test 50 35.6 +0.6 33.65 39.88 1.5M 3.2M 33.45
FSH 08/10 BO 28.85 +0.14 28.76 33 124K 350K 27.85
Current. Holding the breakout on low volume. Needs to get it in gear again.
HGSI 08/14 Test 18 18.05 +0.93 18.15 23 1.4M 3.5M 16.65
Looks ready to go again.
INLD 08/03 A Wedge 3 -0.07 3.45 5.05 140K 1.1M 2.95
Buy not hit. Cannot get off the dime.
ISIS 07/31 BO 11.57 +0.46 9.05 12 433K 936K 9.94
Current. Rallying up again on rising though still below average volume.
ISLE 08/19 cup hdl 21.75 +0.03 22.02 26.15 281K 392K 20.25
Buy not issued.
IVGN 08/03 BO 36.33 +0.26 36.1 39.88 882K 1.5M 33.57
Current. Still working laterally above the 10 day MVA.
IWM 08/17 A Wedge 81.28 +1.63 79.02 82.65 1.3M 2M 77.25
Current. Moving toward the target.
MIK 08/10 DB hdl 42.44 +0.89 38.85 44.25 786K 800K 39.88
Current. Another move up on above average volume, though showing a doji on the session; that can indicate a move back down to test the move, but MIK looks as if it is stair-stepping higher.
NBIX 08/08 Cup 40.1 +2.08 39.65 45 640K 800K 36.87
Current. Looks ready to move again.
NWRE 08/19 Test 18 16.07 -0.03 15.05 17.94 1.1M 410K 14.55
Current. Tested back on higher volume. Watch it.
OSTE 08/10 cup hdl 11.01 +0.56 9.42 12.5 310K 195K 9.35
Current. Continuing to move up on a return of strong, rising volume.
PDX 08/10 Test 50 32.96 +0.94 30.55 34.55 171K 425K 28.41
Up again on continued low volume.
PRX 08/20 cup hdl 27.33 -0.22 28.91 34.65 330K 525K 26.89
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern but not the best action.
SIE 08/08 Test 50 22.65 -0.25 23.35 27.96 283K 500K 21.98
Current. Did not participate in Wednesday move but still in a solid pattern.
STEM 07/27 Test 50 1.24 -0.02 1.87 2.45 46K 80K 1.74
Still holding above 1.20.
TELK 07/25 Flat 14.21 +0.31 13.35 16 335K 200K 13
Current. Rising off the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume. This is the start of the move we were looking for.
TEN 08/08 Test BO 6.93 -0.07 7.55 9.94 60K 225K 7.15
Current. Still dancing with the 50 day MVA on low volume.
TEN 07/27 Test BO 6.93 -0.07 7.43 9.94 60K 250K 7.15
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 67.72 -0.43 68.25 77.85 798K 1.2M 66.50
Buy alert not issued. Lower volume all the way up, but the selling has been on higher volume. Not the best action.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 26.29 +1.01 24.75 29.85 918K 1.5M 23.55
Current. Moving up again.
UNTD 08/17 cup hdl 12.31 -1.19 12.03 14.65 2M 785K 11.19
Current. Testing the move but on still strong volume.
USPI 08/05 DB hdl 32.32 +2.16 30.22 34.35 751K 575K 28.11
Current. Super move on strong volume.
VARI 08/13 Test BO 35.05 +0.61 34.25 40 230K 415K 32
Buy alert not issued.
VARI 08/07 Rv H&S 35.05 +0.61 34.95 40 230K 363K 33.95
Current. A very nice lateral consolidation on very low volume. Could be getting ready.
VFC 08/10 DB hdl 42.43 -0.17 40.65 45 328K 440K 41.55
Current. Very good handle forming here for another move.
WSFS 08/10 Rv H&S 29.9 +0.15 26.25 30.25 37K 65K 27.75
Current. Up again but volume has been tailing off. On another run toward 30.25 we will take the gain.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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