|
|
stock watch, stock trading site
Begin Part 3 of 3
Continued Plays (tests of breakout):
SDS (Sungard Data Systems Inc--$53.39; -1.81; optionable (SDS)): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Pulling back on a bit of selling Thursday and showing a doji Friday on lower volume (that was still high at 1.16 million; avg. 872,363). The stock reached a new all-time closing high Wednesday (59.16), and needed a pullback, though this one was a little deeper than we'd expected. Still, SDS is a leading stock and held above its breakout price (52.75); look for the move back up. High tested the 18 day MVA (54.19), and the 10 day MVA is at 55.51. Continued excellent money flow and high relative strength, good buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up from here on rising volume. Watch resistance levels.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (SDS GJ).
ASD (American Standard--$54.47; -0.21; optionable (ASD)): Materials and construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asd.html
STATUS: Holding above the buy point of 53.82 and its 18 day MVA (54.07) after pulling back off the breakout high of 57.60 (the stock broke out of a pennant two weeks ago). The stock looks good to hold support here (volume remains below average) until it can rally back up. Relative strength continues to move out ahead of price, a bullish sign, and money flow looks good.
BUY POINT: Back over 55.50 on volume in the range of 397,000. Volume Friday dropped back to 294,200 (avg.390,000).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (ASD GK).
FRED (Fred's Inc--$23.69; -0.12; no options): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fred.html
STATUS: FRED continues to move in its tight lateral consolidation on below average volume, which formed after the stock corrected sharply from its breakout high of 26.25 (breakout closing high is 25.38). After showing several tight dojis on the low volume (26,400 Friday; avg. 46,136), we are looking for an explosion back up. The consolidation is squeezed between the 10 and 18 day MVAs (23.84 and 23.66). Great buying and money flow.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move over 24.31 (hit 4 times in the base) on volume of 36,000 or stronger.
POSITION: Stock.
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
Wedges:
New Plays:
A small financial stock that is in a good pattern:
CORS (Corus Backshares Inc--$48.88; -0.50; no options): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cors.html
STATUS: Moving in an ascending wedge with upper resistance at 50. The stock moved up on excellent volume Thursday, but pulled back Friday, closing just above its 18 day MVA (48.46) in a classic low-volume pullback to support. Volume was at 18,100 (avg. 34,136). Looking for a breakout over 50.13. Outstanding money flow and high relative strength, good buying. This stock has uptrended nicely from the January 2000 lows near 25, and the current pattern is testing a December breakout move. Could really use a rate cut.
BUY POINT: 50.26, on volume of 46,000 or better. A buy on the breakout up to 52.77.
POSITION: Stock.
Continued Play (from recent TTR updates):
VAR (Varian Medical Systems Inc--$68.81; +0.81; optionable (VAR)): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: The stock is in a two-month ascending wedge pattern with a high of 71. Holding together nicely above its 10 and 18 day MVAs (67.59, 66.55 respectively) on overall low volume, which after breaking above average Thursday dropped back Friday to 275,400 (avg. 241,000). Looking for stronger volume to continue moving the stock up toward a breakout. Good buying and strong money flow, high relative strength.
BUY POINT: 71.13, on volume of 325,000 or better. A buy on the breakout up to 74.69.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $70 calls to buy (VAR EN); options have 56 open interests.
Continued Play:
A smaller stock that trades on decent volume.
RBNC (Republic Bancorp Inc--$12.69; 0.00; no options): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbnc.html
STATUS: Holding steady in the tail of its ascending wedge, as volume drops further (127,900; avg. 201,318). The stock is consolidating here after running up the right side of its 15-month base (prior high 14.88). The stock threw a volume spike Wednesday on a small move up; that suggests a breakout. We also like the tight doji at the top of the intraday range (high was 12.72). Outstanding money flow and buying, and high relative strength.
BUY POINT: 13.01, on continued strong volume. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 13.66.
POSITION: Stock.
Pennants:
Continued Play:
EDS (Electronic Data Systems--$61.70; -0.80; optionable (EDS)): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eds.html
STATUS: Still holding above the buy point of 60.13 as the stock pulled back to the lowest level since its breakout February 8, using that level as support for a move back up to close over its 18 day MVA (61.20). Volume was lower at 3.18 million (still high and above the average of 2.36 million). Looks okay, but the company is under investigation for charging improper expenses. Stocks are having enough trouble without this kind of stuff flying about.
BUY POINT: Going to watch for a breakout over 65.50 before we get interested again.
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
New Plays:
ADSK (Autodesk Inc--$36.13; +3.00; optionable (ADQ)): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
STATUS: The stock is in a base of almost a year's duration, and is making a move up from the bottom of the handle on strong volume (that soared to 2.9 million Friday; avg. 692,136). The company reported good earnings Thursday and enjoyed upgrades from a few analysts. After having traded below the 50 day MVA (33.26) Thursday, the strong volume popped the stock back over the short term moving averages and some resistance at 36. Looking for a breakout over the handle high of 39.88. Pullback support from here: 36, or the 18 day MVA at 35.37. Strong money flow and good buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Breakout: 40.01, volume 1 million or better.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (ADQ GG). Breakout: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (ADQ GH). Less than 100 open interests in each option.
IVGN (Invitrogen Corporation--$78.38; +2.13; optionable (IUV)): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivgn.html
STATUS: In a year-long base (previous high is 99.50) and after meeting resistance at the 87 level twice in late fall of last year (after coming off a May low of 36), corrected sharply down to 56 early this year. Price has since made its way back up and is consolidating once again in its wedging-type of character, meeting resistance at the 80 level, which was tapped on the Friday high. Volume was stronger on the move off the 18 day MVA (75.09), at 842,500; avg. 701,500. Looking for a move over the immediate resistance for now. Strong money flow, and relative strength has moved out ahead of price, a bullish sign.
BUY POINT: Over 81 on continued rising volume. Safer: Over 88, on volume in the range of 1.1 million.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $80 calls to buy (IUV EP). Safer: Stock and/or May $85 calls to buy (IUV EQ); latter options have only 30 open interests.
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$50.13; +1.50; no options): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: A formerly covered stock which has corrected from the December high (56.75) and looks to have established good support at the 45 level (50 day MVA, 46.66). Is meeting resistance at 50-51, so let the stock break over that level for taking positions. After Friday's strong move up (from a low of 48) on volume of 348,400 average is 198,227 the stock may be able to make it. Shows good buying and great money flow. Our first target is 55.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock.
A Trading Play:
SFA (Scientific-Atlanta Inc--$52.61; +5.56; optionable (SFA)): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfa.html
STATUS: Broke above the 50 day MVA (51.58) on strong, above average volume (3.3 million; avg. 2.2 million). We are looking for a run up to the 60 level (200 day MVA, 61.87) for a nice trading play. The stock ran up to that level from the January low of 29.25, a run that spanned the entire month. Decent buying and high money flow. Our first target is 60.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued rising volume.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $50 calls to buy (SFA FJ).
Rolling Pattern:
Continued Play:
BGEN (Biogen Inc--$71.94; +1.94; optionable (BGQ)): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: In a ranging consolidation after its run up from the January low of 50.25, the stock moved up Friday from its recent strong support level, the 18 day MVA (68.89), to the upper level of the pattern (72.50). Volume was lower but still good at average levels (3.3 million), though if the stock does pull back, look for support at the 10 day MVA (70.55) or the 18 day. If the stock can break above the July high of 75.63, it will be in good shape to continue the move up in its year-long base.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move up from 70-71 (10 day MVA), on above average volume. Breakout: Over 74.38 (Wednesday high) on volume in the range of 4.5 million.
POSITION: Pullback: Stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (BGQ GN). Breakout: Same as for pullback.
Other Basing Plays continued:
LOW (Lowe's Companies Inc--$54.58; +0.44; optionable (LOW)): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Pulled back from Tuesday's breakout high of 59.42 and moved laterally the last two days of the week, showing 2 dojis. LOW is back below the buy point of 55.63, but looks ready to make a move up, and a rate cut would be a good catalyst. The stronger volume looks good (3.5 million; avg. 2.77 million). High tested the 10 day MVA (54.85), and the low tapped the 53 level for the second day. Continued great buying, high money flow and relative strength (that is out ahead of price). Up at the close of after hours trading Friday.
BUY POINT: Over 55.63 on continued rising volume (in range of 4.5 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (LOW GK).
MAY (May Department Stores Co--$35.91; -2.99; optionable (MAY)): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/may.html
STATUS: Climbing the right side of its 21-month base (previous high 45.25), up from the October low of 19.19. Trying to smooth out is recent consolidation, an effort unaided by a bit of selling Wednesday. However, support looks good at the 50 day MVA (35.11), tested the last two days of the week; Friday the stock moved up from 35.40 (the low) to close under the 18 day MVA (37.38). Volume was lower (1.2 million; avg. 1.36 million). Look for a move over the 10 day MVA (37.53) to get the stock back in the former consolidation range above that level. Recent high to beat is 39.53. Money flow is excellent. Looking for a pop from retail stocks should we get a rate cut early in the week.
BUY POINT: Breakout: Over 39.53 on increased volume.
POSITION: Breakout: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (MAY FG).
STE (Steris Corp--$18.05; -0.08; optionable (STE)): Health services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Holding above the 18 day MVA (17.82), showing its second consecutive doji as the lows of the last three days tested that support level. Volume was much stronger Friday (375,100; avg. 263,227) as price held its ground. We want to see a move up pretty quickly, as that is the pattern the stock has developed since late January, popping up from the 18 day MVA on strong volume. It's at support, and volume is there. The stock is in a double handle to its 20-month base (prior high of 20.13). Good buying.
BUY POINT: 19.38, on volume of 395,000 or more.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $17.50 calls to buy (STE FW).
Put Plays:
DGX (Quest Diagnostics Inc--$101.00; +2.00; optionable (DGX)): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Were watching this stock for a possible breakout from a wedge-type consolidation that fell apart Thursday even with a stock split announcement. The stock is now under its 200 day MVA (102.84), and moved up to tap that level on the high of 102.50 after hitting a low of 95.62. Volume was lower on the move up (327,300; avg. 444,272), and if the stock cannot break back over the resistance, we are looking at buying puts for the downside play.
BUY POINT: Let the stock move up to test the 200 day MVA (102-103), taking positions on a move down from there on stronger volume.
POSITION: May $105 puts to buy (DGX QA).
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$51.18; +0.18; optionable (QQQ)):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqq.html
STATUS: The index ran to a high of 55.10 (tapping its 10 day MVA) Friday on strong, slightly declined volume (93.3 million; avg. 56 million), but pulled back down to close at the level of two consecutive dojis from the previous two sessions. On another move up to the moving average, we will watch for a turn back down again and look at buying some puts.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from 55 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: April $55 puts to buy (QQQ PC) or April $50 puts to buy (QQQ PX).
CIEN (Ciena Corporation--$74.50; +5.37; optionable (UEE)): Telecommunications: Processing Systems & Products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
STATUS: Moved up on lower volume (23.6 million; avg. 16.2 million), which remains high and above average. We are looking for a jump to 80 at the 18 day MVA.
BUY POINT: On a move down from the 80 level, on stronger volume.
POSITION: May $80 puts to buy (UEE PP).
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock watch
stock trading site
|
