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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) RINO: Great pattern.
2) AIG: Breaking down.
3) BMS: Still in a great consolidation, bucking the market.
4) CAO: Holding the 50 day MVA on a big volume spike.
5) MCO: Bouncing from the 50 day MVA on big volume.
6) MIK: Huge earnings will propel to the breakout.
7) Continuing: GDT trying to move.
NEW PLAYS
Upside:
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$462.53; -8.62; optionable): S&P 100
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Trendline bounce. Tested its up trendline (currently 461.50) and simple 50 day MVA (460) and rebounded slightly to close. We are looking for another test of those levels early in the session and then if the S&P and Dow hold support again, we will look to catch a move up for a rally Thursday and Friday. This is an aggressive play, but one we can make some money on if the trendline holds.
Volume: 6.59M
BUY POINT: $461.05 Target=$475 Stop=$458
POSITION: OXB JL - Oct. $460c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$oex.html
RINO (Blue Rhino--$12.78; 0; no options): propane tanks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rino.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Currently in the handle of a 7-week base. Volume has dried up the past three days in the handle as it tested lower intraday and rebounds to hold above the 10 day MVA (12.70). That is very good handle action. Accumulation during the base is 2 to 1 over distribution. Money flow has continued to rally higher and higher as the stock forms a very good looking handle. Holding its pattern well in the recent selling.
Volume: 52.9K Avg Volume: 189.545K
BUY POINT: $13.8 Volume=300K Target=$16.75 Stop=$12.45
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rino.html
Downside:
AIG (American Intl. Group--$62.08; -2.49; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied to the 50 day MVA and has rolled over, breaking the short term moving averages Wednesday on rising volume. Insurance is shaky. There are several theories, but we suspect it is just some nervousness before 9-11 as it is the property and casualty insurers that sold Wednesday. This stock may test back up to 63.50 or so in some early upside action before rolling back over. That is when we step in.
Volume: 6.103M Avg Volume: 7.293M
BUY POINT: From here: $61.94. After a test of 63.50, 62.95. Volume=6.5M Target=$57.65 Stop=$64
POSITION: AIG VM - Oct. $65 put (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
NOVN (Noven Pharmaceuticals--$13.08; -0.82; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/novn.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to the 50 day MVA after a bad drop in July, and then rolled over Wednesday at resistance at 14 on sharply higher volume, breaking the 18 day MVA (13.26) on the close. Money flow stinks and there has been a lot of dumping in NOVN. The weak, low volume rally up can give us a good play. It may not be a big move, but the price/delta combination gives a good gain when the target is hit.
Volume: 581.5K Avg Volume: 586.272K
BUY POINT: $12.85 Volume=600K Target=$10.25 Stop=$14.75
POSITION: NPQ VC - Oct. $15 p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/novn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
APOL (Apollo Group--$38.42; -0.31; optionable): Education and training
Play Date: 08/15/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. The breakout rolled completely over and now APOL has tested the 50 day MVA (38.10) on rising, average volume. Stronger stocks should bounce from the 50 day MVA. APOL has some of the best earnings and sales numbers out there, so we will see.
Volume: 2.362M Avg Volume: 2.23M
BUY POINT: $40.65 Volume=3.3M Target=$48 Stop=$39.94
POSITION: AKA KY - Nov. $36.625 c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
BMS (Bemis--$52.11; -0.09; optionable): Packages and containers
Play Date: 08/21/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bms.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulder breakout. Still in the lateral consolidation, showing a hammer doji with a tail (reached lower and recovered) as it recovered on rising though still below average volume. Money flow continues to move up during the consolidation. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 283.1K Avg Volume: 343.5K
BUY POINT: New positions: 52.94 (orig. $52.02). Volume=450K Target=$56.94 Stop=$48.38
POSITION: BMS AJ - Jan. $50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bms.html
CAO (CSK Auto--$12.83; -0.26; optionable): Auto parts
Play Date: 08/24/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cao.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Still holding the 50 day MVA, showing a big volume spike Wednesday on above average volume. That indicates that as the stock moved down to test that level on the low (12.68) buyers came back in and did not let it fall far. This could lead to the move we have been looking for. Accumulation during this base is positive at 2 weeks to zero.
Volume: 676.8K Avg Volume: 268.181K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=275K Target=$17 Stop=$12.55
POSITION: CAO KB - Nov. $10 call and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cao.html
DNA (Genentech--$33.50; -0.4; optionable): Biotech
Play Date: 08/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. The wedge breakout collapsed, and DNA tested the simple 50 day MVA on Wednesday low (32.48) and snapped back. Volume was not great, but DNA held at this point 9 sessions back and showed very similar action. We will see if it can generate more volume upside and give another run toward 36.
Volume: 1.494M Avg Volume: 2.616M
BUY POINT: New positions: 35.65 (orig. $33.65). Volume=3.2M Target=$39.88 Stop=$33.45
POSITION: DNA LF - Dec. $30c (68 delta) OR DNA LE - Dec. $25c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dna.html
DYII (Dynacq Intl--$16; -0.7; no options): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dyii.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle of its 14-week base, taking a deeper dip Wednesday in the market selling as volume moved higher and just above average. Still a decent handle given the market selling. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Its earnings and sales are solid.
Volume: 67.225K Avg Volume: 62.181K
BUY POINT: $17.35 Volume=80K Target=$21.75 Stop=$15.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dyii.html
ISLE (Isle of Capri Casino--$20.68; +0.06; optionable): Resorts and Casinos
Play Date: 08/19/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isle.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still a bit wild in the handle, reaching down to the 50 day on the Wednesday low (19.50), but managing to recover to hold the 18 day MVA on the close. Volume shot higher, and at this point that is not bad as it shows buyers came in to pick it up off the 50 day MVA. Still in the pattern and we will continued to watch for a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 457.19K Avg Volume: 262.272K
BUY POINT: $22.02 Volume=392K Target=$26.15 Stop=$20.25
POSITION: QEP AW - Jan $17.50 c (77 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isle.html
MCO (Moodys Corp.--$49; +0.65; optionable): Investment ratings
Play Date: 08/24/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MCO went a bit further in testing than desired, tapping down to the 50 day MVA Tuesday and closing there with a doji. Wednesday it bounced from there on sharply higher, above average volume. This is an indication that the buyers came in at this level and that some leaders may pick up the pace as the week winds down. Still want it to overcome some resistance at 50. Good accumulation at 4 accumulation weeks to just 1 distribution week.
Volume: 914.6K Avg Volume: 670.409K
BUY POINT: $50.25 Volume=800K Target=$60.25 Stop=$46.73
POSITION: MCO KI - Nov. $45c and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mco.html
MIK (Michaels--$39.75; -2.15; optionable): Hobby stores.
Play Date: 08/10/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Dropped to the 18 day MVA on high volume during the session and then reported 30 cents in earnings versus 18 cents expected. After hours the stock was trading from 43.50 to 45. Now that could give it the breakout that we are looking for. We got chased out of some positions Wednesday on the higher volume selling, but we won't hesitate to get back in on a solid breakout. On a gap up to 45 or so, we will wait for a test of 43.50 and a bounce from there. Accumulation is outstanding at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 815.7K Avg Volume: 630.727K
BUY POINT: $43.05. Volume=800K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.36
POSITION: MIK LG - Dec. $35c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mik.html
PPP (Pogo Producing--$33.11; -0.19; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in a nice handle in the 15-week base. The handle is still holding above the 10 day MVA (33.03) on the close. Accumulation weeks lead distribution weeks 4 to 3. Money flow is also outstanding, rising ahead of this price pullback that shakes out the last sellers.
Volume: 202.5K Avg Volume: 265.681K
BUY POINT: $34.34 Volume=336K Target=$41 Stop=$31.94
POSITION: PPP KF - Nov. $30c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppp.html
VFC (VF Corp.--$40.95; -0.23; optionable): Cloth for clothes
Play Date: 08/24/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vfc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still pulling back in the handle to the 15-week base, now holding at the 200 day MVA on the close. Volume was way down the past two sessions on the selling, showing there is not a lot of sellers. Still a very nice handle.
Volume: 177.4K Avg Volume: 383.818K
BUY POINT: $42.25 Volume=400K Target=$47.55 Stop=$40.65
POSITION: VFC KG - Nov. $35 c (81 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vfc.html
Downside:
MAN (Manpower--$33; -1.08; optionable): Staffing service
Play Date: 08/24/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/man.html
STATUS: Put. Really making the run lower, gapping down and selling further on rising volume. Close to the target. If it gets near it on the open, take it.
Volume: 899.5K Avg Volume: 704K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions. Volume=900K Target=$32 Stop=$36.74
POSITION: MAN VH - Oct. $40p (-84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/man.html
PEP (Pepsico--$39.93; -1.37; optionable): Soft drinks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pep.html
STATUS: Put. Major gap lower on a downgrade, but it still has plenty of downside and we figured to go for it with all of the bad news. It did not sell much more as it held at that bit of support at 40. It may try to bounce up from that level on some early hope; we expect it to fail and fall through 40. Aggressive can take new or additional positions after 40 fails.
Volume: 8.179M Avg Volume: 6.281M
BUY POINT: New positions: below 40 (orig. $41.15). Volume=9.2M Target=$37.75 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: PEP VI - Oct. $45p (-81 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pep.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
NOTE: We have placed target volume in place of average volume so you can gauge how the stock is performing relative to our target.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABK 08/27 Put 57.43 -0.69 57.94 53.15 783K 850K 59.55
Current. Falling on sharply higher volume.
AIG 08/28 Put 62.08 -2.49 61.94 57.65 6.1M 6.5M 64
New.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 38.42 -0.31 40.65 48 2.4M 3.3M 39.94
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA.
BMS 08/21 BO 52.11 -0.09 52.02 56.94 283K 450K 48.38
Current. Looks great.
BRCD 07/17 BO 14.61 -0.75 19.8 25 10M 17M 19
Tanking.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.7 -0.95 19.2 19.8 7.3M 9M 17.25
Current. Still falling but okay for now.
CAO 08/24 Test 50 12.83 -0.26 13.55 17 677K 275K 12.55
Buy not hit.
CBH 08/19 cup hdl 46.12 -0.75 47.25 54.33 392K 902K 43.94
Buy not hit. Still banging around in a handle that is getting a bit wild.
CCR 08/06 BO 52.87 +0.52 50.55 58.55 1.1M 2M 51.95
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA and recovered though no volume yet. Not bad action given the market.
CELG 08/17 Test BO 17.59 -0.79 19.85 23.85 686K 1M 18.46
Exited though it did hold the 50 day MVA on the close.
CHIR 08/21 BO 38.4 -1.27 41.25 47 2.9M 3.5M 39.25
Exited. Held the 18 day MVA on the close on rising volume.
CREE 08/15 A Wedge 14.21 -0.19 15.42 18 2.1M 2.9M 15.94
Current. Doji at the 50 day MVA.
CSL 08/17 A Wedge 44.72 -1.39 45.55 50 212K 275K 44.15
Buy not issued. Back to the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
CSL 08/10 A Wedge 44.72 -1.39 44.44 50 212K 275K 44.15
Current.
CSTR 08/12 cup hdl 26.33 -0.8 32.5 36.65 1.3M 359K 30.22
Exited as it did not recover.
DNA 08/17 Test 50 33.5 -0.4 35.65 39.88 1.5M 3.2M 33.15
Showing a doji, tapping the simple 50 day MVA on the low.
DNA 08/03 Test 50 33.5 -0.4 33.65 39.88 1.5M 3.2M 33.45
Current.
DYII 08/26 cup hdl 16 -0.7 17.35 21.75 67K 80K 15.95
Buy not hit.
FSH 08/10 BO 28.94 -0.76 28.76 33 204K 350K 27.85
Current. Tested the 200 day MVA on the low and rallied to close at the 18 day MVA.
GDT 08/22 A Wedge 35.5 +0.31 36.45 40.35 1.8M 3.3M 33.85
Buy not hit. Showing some good earnings and rising off 50 day MVA on some better volume.
ISIS 07/31 BO 10.4 -0.1 9.05 12 445K 936K 9.94
Current. Doji at the 18 day MVA.
ISLE 08/19 cup hdl 20.68 +0.06 22.02 26.15 457K 392K 20.25
Buy not hit.
IVGN 08/03 BO 35.96 -0.25 36.1 39.88 760K 1.5M 33.57
Doji on the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume.
IWM 08/17 A Wedge 78 -1.55 79.02 82.65 1.4M 2M 77.25
Exited.
MAN 08/24 Put 33 -1.08 34.96 32 900K 900K 36.74
Flying lower.
MATK 08/27 BO 18 +0.03 18.1 21.75 385K 433K 16.45
Buy not issued. Held steady.
MCO 08/24 Test BO 49 +0.65 50.25 60.25 915K 800K 46.73
Buy not hit.
MIK 08/10 DB hdl 39.75 -2.15 38.85 44.25 816K 800K 39.88
Great earnings after hours should break it out.
NBIX 08/08 Cup 37.71 -0.73 39.65 45 612K 800K 37.25
Below the 200 day MVA on rising though below average volume.
NOVN 08/28 Put 13.08 -0.82 12.85 10.25 582K 600K 14.75
New.
NWRE 08/19 Test 18 18.72 +2.03 15.05 17.94 2.2M 410K 14.55
Hit target. Really shooting higher on massive volume.
OSTE 08/10 cup hdl 9.4 -0.56 9.42 12.5 102K 195K 9.85
Exited as it broke the 18 day MVA.
PDX 08/10 Test 50 31.35 -0.45 30.55 34.55 81K 425K 28.41
Buy alert not issued. Still holding the 18 day MVA on low volume.
PEP 08/27 Put 39.93 -1.37 41.15 37.75 8.2M 9.2M 42.95
Current. Tanking.
PPP 08/26 cup hdl 33.11 -0.19 34.34 41 202K 336K 31.94
Buy not hit. Great pattern still.
PRX 08/20 cup hdl 25.61 -0.66 28.91 34.65 192K 525K 26.89
Buy not hit. Tanked below the 200 day MVA.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 12.78 0 13.8 16.75 53K 300K 12.45
New.
SSNC 08/24 cup hdl 12.75 -0.4 14.05 17 61K 139K 13.07
Buy not hit. Giving up the 50 day MVA on some rising volume.
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 66.04 -0.26 68.25 77.85 304K 1.2M 66.50
Doji above the 50 day MVA on very low volume.
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 22.89 -1.38 26.61 31.94 1.3M 1.5M 24.75
Buy not hit.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 22.89 -1.38 24.75 29.85 1.3M 1.5M 23.55
Current. Tanking below the 18 day MVA on continued strong volume. Look for test 23.50 Thursday.
VARI 08/24 Test BO 32.57 -1.03 35.25 40 340K 415K 32.78
Buy not hit.
VARI 08/07 Rv H&S 32.57 -1.03 34.95 40 340K 363K 33.95
Current. Did not dump it Wednesday as it held the 50 day MVA, but not great action. ON a bounce to 34 we will exit.
VFC 08/24 Test BO 40.95 -0.23 42.25 47.55 177K 400K 40.65
Buy not hit.
VFC 08/10 DB hdl 40.95 -0.23 40.65 45 177K 440K 41.55
Current. Not bad action.
WSFS 08/10 Rv H&S 31.95 +0.3 26.25 30.25 32K 65K 27.75
And yet higher on lower volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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