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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS: We still believe the downside will prevail near term, so we are still ready for downside action in addition to those small caps breaking out to the upside. There is nothing wrong with playing the downside; it is an inevitable part of the market whether in a cyclical bull market or bear market. It is time to put aside beliefs about whether it is good to make money off down markets; our individual actions are not going to change market direction. The goal is to make money, taking what the market gives.
Wednesday plays:
ANN: Tanked lower but then reaffirmed its Q3 and recovered.
DNA: Sold but then rallied back to test the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume. Looks ready to resume the fall.
Good moves: PETM; COH
Best Plays:
1) WOR: Strong breakout.
2) BEN: Looks ready to roll back over.
3) VWKS: Looking ready.
4) Continuing: CYBX looks ready. DNA looks ready to roll back over.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside
WOR (Worthington Industries--$18.99; +1.13; optionable): Steel and Iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wor.html
STATUS: Breakout from an ascending wedge. WOR is breaking out of an 8-week ascending wedge base on some very nice volume. Money flow is shooting ahead of the move and relative strength is breaking out as well. This is not an all-time high but is a 3.5 year high; not bad. This stock has been a great performer and is making a solid move.
Volume: 689.1K Avg Volume: 415.59K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=625K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.65
POSITION: WOR LC - Dec. $15c (80 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wor.html
Downside:
BEN (Franklin Resources--$34.72; +0.96; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ben.html
STATUS: Put. BEN was unable to re-take the 50 day MVA on its rally off the August low, rolling over at that point. It has been testing some support at 34, selling hard on above average volume Tuesday. It bounced Wednesday, but on lower volume and stalling at the 10 and 18 day MVA on the close. It looks ready to turn lower at this point. We are looking at aggressive positions, but we are also looking at a break below 34 support as an entry point.
Volume: 881.4K Avg Volume: 933.909K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $34.35. Breakdown: 33.94. Volume=950K Target=$30.75 Stop=$35.85
POSITION: BEN VH - Oct. $40p (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ben.html
Revisited:
VWKS (Vitalworks--$8.20; +0.15; no options): Business software
Play Date: 08/30/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vwks.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VWKS is still in the handle of its 3-month base, and the past two sessions volume has started to increase as the stock moved up off of the 18 day MVA. It looks ready to make its move. Accumulation is solid in the base at 4 accumulation weeks (rising price for the week on rising volume) to just 1 distribution week (falling price for the week on rising volume). Relative strength has already started to break out ahead of the price as it moves laterally through the handle, a very positive sign.
Volume: 443.397K Avg Volume: 477.818K
BUY POINT: $8.45 Volume=890K Target=$10.25 Stop=$7.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vwks.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 17.47 +0.71 0 0 943K 1M 0
August sales were much better than expected and the stock was roaring after hours.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 56.72 +2.62 58.02 66.45 836K 701K 53.96
Nice move up in the handle on a surge in volume. This could be it.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
We have made a change to the table. Instead of average volume we have included the target volume.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABK 08/27 Put 55.95 +0.1 57.94 53.15 623K 850K 58.05
Current. Held at 56 again as it tried to rally, but volume was lower. Looks as if it will still fall.
ACL 08/06 DB hdl 36.24 +0.24 35.81 42.94 965K 900K 33.31
Buy not issued. Tested the 18 day MVA again and gained fractionally on a big volume spike. Might be ready.
AMGP 08/28 cup hdl 27.13 -1.79 30.32 34.94 599K 350K 27.75
Buy not issued. Breaking down.
AMI 07/24 A Wedge 6.17 -0.02 6.77 9.94 13K 173K 6.45
Current. Doji at the 50 day MVA as it works through its base.
ANN 09/03 Put 25.5 +0.46 24.96 21.25 1.9M 1.6M 26.15
Current. Tanked as expected then rallied back on strong volume with its reaffirmation of its Q3.
AXP 05/08 cup hdl 34.5 +1.16 43.53 52 5.1M 6M 40.48
Current. Sold as well then rallied back toward the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume. Still looks ready to fall.
BEN 09/04 Put 34.72 +0.96 34.35 30.75 881K 950K 35.85
New.
BER 08/28 Put 34.11 +0.44 33.45 31 131K 200K 35
Buy alert not issued. Testing the short term moving averages on lower volume. Looks ready to fall.
BRKL 08/12 BO 12.5 +0.06 12.11 15.12 295K 1.1M 11.85
Current. Still in the handle to its pattern, showing a doji on very low volume.
CARS 08/30 cup hdl 24.6 +0.2 25.18 28.95 168K 400K 23.42
Buy not hit. Working laterally still in the handle.
CFCP 07/29 A Wedge 14.5 +0.6 15.55 18.65 9.7K 55K 14.35
Buy not hit. Gapped way down and recovered to hold the pattern.
COH 08/22 cup hdl 28.9 +2.78 27.55 33 1.9M 1.4M 25.62
Current. Huge breakout.
COH 08/13 BO 28.9 +2.78 25.55 30 1.9M 1.4M 24.95
Current.
COLM 08/13 BO 37.37 +1.59 36.85 42.38 144K 275K 36
Nice move off the 50 day MVA on rising volume.
COLM 07/27 Dbl btm 37.37 +1.59 34.25 39.95 144K 275K 35.45
CUB 08/24 Test 50 20.25 +0.1 22.25 27.94 112K 205K 20.69
CYBX 08/20 Flat 18.56 +0.56 17.65 21.25 490K 280K 16.41
Buy not issued. Big volume spike Wednesday after a test of the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to make its move.
DNA 09/03 Put 31.85 +0.89 30.84 27.25 1.7M 3.9M 31.94
Current. Looks ready to fall again after a test of the simple 50 day MVA.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 3.79 -0.14 4.85 7 1.9M 4M 4.30
EBAY 08/27 Put 55.59 +1.12 56.95 53.25 6.7M 13M 56.25
Current. Tried to rally back on some rising volume but not much there.
GE 08/17 A Wedge 28.7 +0.24 31.85 36 27M 35M 31.15
Current. Had its estimates cut, but held above 28, showing a doji.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 17.47 +0.71 0 0 943K 1M 0
August sales were much better than expected and the stock was roaring after hours.
IVGN 08/08 BO 35.58 +0.76 36.35 42.25 706K 1.5M 33.57
Held the 50 day MVA and bounced, but volume was low.
JP 08/30 Put 41.21 +0.21 41.72 38.55 547K 700K 42.65
Current. Recovered a bit of ground Wednesday on some rising volume.
LMNX 08/29 BO 7.4 +0.2 8.12 10.65 142K 250K 7.15
Buy not issued. Held the 50 day MVA and gave a bounce on some rising volume. Maybe this time it will have the volume.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 42.27 +1.24 0 0 6.5M 0 0
MANT 08/27 BO 24 +0.2 25.04 29.94 88K 150K 23
Buy not issued. Showing a doji at 24. May be ready.
MEDI 08/31 Put 25.45 +0.86 25.35 22 4M 8.2M 26.55
Current. Regained some ground, but on very low volume. Looks like a weak recovery.
MME 08/21 cup hdl 34.96 +0.45 37.95 45.55 347K 950K 35.29
Buy not hit. Holding the 50 day MVA for now.
NBTB 08/10 A Wedge 17.79 +0.3 18.35 22 30K 85K 17.07
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 120.68 +1.64 0 0 1.4M 1.7M 0
PETM 08/26 cup hdl 17.65 +0.85 17.04 20.45 2.4M 2.8M 15.74
Current. Huge move on solid volume.
PG 07/05 Put 88.56 +2.02 0 0 4.8M 4.5M 0
QLGC 08/17 CCall 33.8 +1.44 36.48 0 18M 12M 33.55
Current. Big volume move.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 56.72 +2.62 58.02 66.45 836K 701K 53.96
Nice move up in the handle on a surge in volume. This could be it.
SBIB 08/08 Dbl btm 14.28 +0.64 15.35 18.35 62K 203K 14.28
SKO 08/27 Put 15.1 +1.48 14.59 12.25 398K 300K 14.75
Current. Big move up. It is over our stop, but we are going to watch its action Thursday.
STE 08/21 A Wedge 22.7 +0.13 22.25 26.55 374K 711K 21.25
Buy not issued. Toying with the breakout. Needs some volume.
USNA 08/10 cup hdl 6.74 0 7.35 10 24K 65K 6.55
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern.
VMI 08/30 BO 24.92 +0.02 22.38 26.85 60K 120K 22.25
Current. Holding with a doji on lower volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 16.64 +1.48 19.76 20 12M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Nice move back up from support on some good, above average volume.
VWKS 08/30 cup hdl 8.2 +0.15 8.45 10.25 443K 890K 7.86
Buy not hit. Looks ready.
WEDC 08/30 BO 8.33 -0.02 8.55 12 102K 105K 7.95
Buy not issued. Struggling at 8.50.
WEDC 08/07 A Wedge 8.33 -0.02 7.63 9.85 102K 105K 7.72
Current. Tried to make the break, but there was no volume.
WOR 09/04 A Wedge 18.99 +1.13 19.06 22.85 689K 625K 17.65
New.
WTW 08/10 BO 45.55 -0.35 44.44 49.75 551K 546K 45.94
Current. At the 18 day MVA, but tested much lower on rising, average volume.
WTW 05/23 Test BO 45.55 -0.35 43.7 50 551K 250K 45.94
Curent.
XTO 08/24 cup hdl 19.7 +0.45 21.05 24.25 751K 811K 19.58
Buy not hit. Held the 50 day MVA and rallied on some above average volume. The handle has been somewhat wrecked on this move, however.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
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