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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) MNTR: Falling on rising volume.
2) OEX: Ready to fall again.
3) GDT: Still solid.
4) HB: Moving toward a breakout.
5) SOV: Making a strong move.
6) TIER: Tested support and rebounded.
7) EME: Rolled over on rising volume.
8) PRE: Doji at resistance.
9) Continuing: BMS; GDT; RINO, PIXR
NEW PLAYS
Downside:
MNTR (Mentor Corp.--$30.96; -0.84; optionable): Medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mntr.html
STATUS: Put. MNTR has broken below its 50 day MVA (33.11), and after trying to recover that level last week has started selling on rising, above average volume. Lots of distribution ongoing, and money flow is tanking. Has the downside momentum ahead of the market.
Volume: 367.544K Avg Volume: 214.045K
BUY POINT: $30.88 Volume=321K Target=$28 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: MNQ VG - Oct. $35p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mntr.html
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$74.5; +1.3; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Put. As with the S&P 500, the OEX has made a lower volume move up off the selling to close just below the 10 day MVA (453.68). We anticipate a rollover here. There is not a lot of room to the first support level where it has held recently, but that is our initial target. Beyond that it has a significant downside to 417. The first move is aggressive, but the indexes look weak.
Volume: 5.785M
BUY POINT: $449.55 Target=$435 (initial) Stop=$454
POSITION: OXB VL - Oct. $460p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$oex.html
$DJX (1/100 Dow Industrials--$85.19; +0.92; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$djx.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied weakly on lower volume back up to the 10 day MVA (85.41) and looks ready to roll over there as its pattern mimics the Dow. The first target is initial and is very tight. It is aggressive but will give us a decent return. If that fails (most likely), the next level is 80.
Volume: 195.778K
BUY POINT: $84.96 Target=$82.25 Stop=$85.75
POSITION: DJX VK - Oct. $89p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$djx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
CLE (Claires Stores--$22.7; +0.59; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice breakout with some volume Monday to add to Friday's move on lower volume. Ran into a bit of headwind at 23 on the high (the July high), but a solid volume move out of the handle. New positions on a move over 23. The solid accumulation helping (4 up weeks to 2 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 456.2K Avg Volume: 238.272K
BUY POINT: New positions: 23.05 (orig. $22.41). Volume=365K Target=$25.94 Stop=$20.84
POSITION: CLE BD - Feb. $20c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cle.html
GDT (Guidant--$36.94; +0.12; optionable): Medical instruments
Play Date: 08/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdt.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still looking good, but could not quite garner the volume it had Friday. We went ahead and entered some positions, and will look for more volume on a continued move to round out the positions.
Volume: 2.047M Avg Volume: 2.711M
BUY POINT: New positions: 37.25 (orig. $36.45). Volume=3.3M Target=$40.35 Stop=$33.85
POSITION: GDT AF - Jan. $30c (76 delta) or GDT JF - Oct. $30 c (78 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gdt.html
HB (Hillenbrand--$59.66; +0.41; optionable): Funerals and healthcare (kind of a conflict of interest)
Play Date: 09/05/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving toward the breakout but coming up a bit short as volume was weaker after Friday's good volume move. Still looks solid but need to see the volume on the move over the buy point. Looking for a move up to the prior high near 66. Again we prefer to leverage our way in with options as we are not looking for a huge move in the stock.
Volume: 173.2K Avg Volume: 180.227K
BUY POINT: $59.95 Volume=267K Target=$64.55 Stop=$55.75
POSITION: HB LK - Dec. $55c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hb.html
MATK (Martek Biosciences--$17.79; -0.35; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/27/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matk.html
STATUS: Breakout over 50 day MVA (16.90). Was flirting with a move today, but had no volume to speak of as it ended the session pulling back. The lower volume on that action is not bad as it continues its 2-week lateral pattern. Good accumulation and great money flow.
Volume: 121K Avg Volume: 311.136K
BUY POINT: $18.25 Volume=433K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: KQT LC - Dec. $15c (76 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/matk.html
SOV (Sovereign Bancorp--$15.35; +0.26; optionable): Savings & loan
Play Date: 09/07/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sov.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making a move up in the handle of its 3-month base on some sharply higher, average volume. After the series of doji's where it was gaining its feet it looks as if SOV is ready. Accumulation is positive at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume; again all it takes is a simple majority. It is one of the strongest savings and loans from a technical and fundamental standpoint. We will be patient and let the stock make the breakout on solid volume.
Volume: 1.293M Avg Volume: 1.358M
BUY POINT: $15.72 Volume=2M Target=$18 Stop=$14.62
POSITION: SOV AC - Jan. $15c (no delta available) or SOV AV - Jan. $12.50c (no delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sov.html
TIER (Tier Technologies--$19.05; +0.17; no options): Information technology
Play Date: 09/04/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tier.html
STATUS: Flat. Still holding in the tight, lateral 2-week consolidation, Monday testing support at 18.50 on the low and rebounding. Volume dropped off to below average levels Monday after strong showings toward the end of the week. Still solid.
Volume: 115.25K Avg Volume: 164.772K
BUY POINT: $19.45 Volume=239K Target=$22.35 Stop=$18.09
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tier.html
Downside:
AIG (American Intl. Group--$61.05; +1.6; optionable): P&C insurance
Play Date: 08/28/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to the 18 day MVA on the high (61.90) on slightly higher though still below average volume. It tailed back to close below the 10 day MVA (61.42). Looks as if it may have run out of gas though it may test 62.50 again.
Volume: 5.297M Avg Volume: 7.264M
BUY POINT: New positions: 59.95 (orig. $61.94). Volume=6.5M Target=$57.65 Stop=$64
POSITION: AIG VM - Oct. $65 put (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
AXP (American Express--$34.86; +0.16; optionable): Credit services
Play Date: 09/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axp.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped down Monday and then rallied back on stronger volume. It closed just below the 10 day MVA (35.21). The financials rallied late, but we don't think AXP is going to keep it up. The 50 day MVA is ahead at 35.67.
Volume: 4.83M Avg Volume: 5.607M
BUY POINT: New positions: 34.33 (orig. $33.18). Volume=8.5M Target=$29.25 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: AXP VU - Oct. $37.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/axp.html
EME (Emcor Group--$52.78; -0.07; optionable): General contractors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eme.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to make its move, gapping up to 54 but that was the high as it sold back to close below the 200 day MVA (52.96) on rising volume. These higher volume reversals are what we like to see to the downside.
Volume: 108.7K Avg Volume: 121.454K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 52.35; then $51.04 Volume=155K Target=$46.65 Stop=$53
POSITION: EME VK - Oct. $55 put (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eme.html
MSFT (Microsoft--$48.7; +0.88; optionable): Application software
Play Date: 09/07/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Put. MSFT gapped lower, sold, and then reversed with the market, rallying back on rising though still below average volume. The stock tested the 18 day MVA on the high (49.02), closing right at the 10 day MVA (48.67). We entered on the selling and got a whipsaw. Still looks as if MSFT can roll over with the Nasdaq here.
Volume: 40.922M Avg Volume: 45.852M
BUY POINT: New positions: 47.94 (orig. $47.41). Volume=45M Target=$44.15 Stop=$49.25
POSITION: MSQ JV - Oct. $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msft.html
PFE (Pfizer--$30.62; -0.13; optionable): Drug manufacturing
Play Date: 09/07/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfe.html
STATUS: Put. Opened lower and fell to 30.30 on the low, but the recovered with the market. Volume backed off on the move, and still looks as if PFE is ready to fall after that higher volume tank Friday. It may once again try to test 32, and if it does we will let it and move in after that fails for additional positions.
Volume: 19.847M Avg Volume: 21.346M
BUY POINT: After a test of 32: 31.45; from here: $30.55 Volume=25M Target=$27 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: PFE VG - Oct. $35p (-88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfe.html
PRE (Partnerre Ltd.--$45.6; +0.03; optionable): P&C insurer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pre.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up Friday to the 18 day MVA (45.74) and then danced around that level Monday, unable to break it and showing a big hanging man doji on lower volume. Looks ready to fall back.
Volume: 252.4K Avg Volume: 400.227K
BUY POINT: $43.35 Volume=621K Target=$40 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: PRE VI - Oct. $45p (-56 delta, no OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pre.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
NOTE: We have placed target volume in place of average volume so you can gauge how the stock is performing relative to our target.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$DJX 09/09 Put 85.19 +0.92 84.96 82.25 196K 0 85.75
New.
$OEX 09/09 Put 451.27 +4.6 449.55 435 5.8M 0 454
New.
ABK 08/27 Put 58.82 +1.21 57.94 53.15 548K 850K 58.05
Current. Rallied up to the down trendline. It stopped there and that is why we stayed with it.
ACS 08/30 Put 46.1 +0.97 43.96 40.15 1M 1.2M 44.04
Current. UP to the 50 day MVA, giving back its move over that level once again. Will see if it fails here tomorrow again.
AIG 08/28 Put 61.05 +1.6 60 55.35 5.3M 6.5M 61.55
Current. Rallied to the 10 day MVA and stalled agai.
AMGN 09/04 Put 45.58 +0.83 43.94 40 12M 15M 45.25
Buy not issued. Rallied up off the 50 day MVA.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 42.78 +1.08 40.65 48 1.9M 3.3M 39.94
Current. Up again but on continued below average volume.
AXP 09/03 Put 34.86 +0.16 33.18 29.25 4.8M 8.5M 34.94
Current. Up to the 10 day MVA as the financials recovered on some volume.
BMS 08/21 BO 52.78 +0.14 52.02 56.94 174K 450K 50.85
Current. Still in the pattern, holding above the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
BRCD 07/17 BO 13.55 -0.39 19.8 25 6.9M 17M 19
BRCM 08/17 CCall 15.8 -0.17 19.2 19.8 6M 9M 17.25
Current. Holding at support.
CBH 08/19 cup hdl 47.65 +0.33 47.25 54.33 482K 902K 45.15
Buy not issued. Needs to clear 48, moving on some rising volume.
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 22.7 +0.59 22.41 25.94 456K 365K 20.84
Current. Hit the buy on strong volume.
CTSH 09/05 A Wedge 62.87 +2.33 60.35 67.94 731K 348K 56.75
Current. Rallying on strong volume surge.
CVS 09/09 Put 29.46 +0.36 29.24 26 1.1M 3.3M 30.65
New.
EME 09/03 Put 52.78 -0.07 51.04 46.65 109K 155K 53
Buy not issued. Gapped up and rolled over on rising volume.
GDT 08/22 A Wedge 36.94 +0.12 36.45 40.35 2M 3.3M 34.55
Current. Still solid.
HB 09/05 cup hdl 59.66 +0.41 59.95 64.55 173K 267K 55.75
Buy not hit.
ISLE 08/19 cup hdl 19.97 -1.71 22.02 26.15 1M 392K 20.72
Exited.
IVGN 08/03 BO 35.42 +0.91 36.1 39.88 1.3M 1.5M 33.57
MATK 08/27 BO 17.79 -0.35 18.25 21.75 121K 433K 16.97
Buy not hit. Still solid in the pattern.
MDT 09/05 Put 41.5 +1.71 38.96 35 5.6M 4M 41
Buy not issued. Received an upgrade and rallied on stronger volume.
MEDI 08/31 Put 24.75 +0.43 25.35 22 4.4M 8.2M 26.55
Current. Tried to break below 24 but rallied back. We will give it another session to close below 24.
MIK 08/28 cup hdl 48.53 +0.18 43.25 51 844K 800K 44
Current. May be topping out here at 48. Looking at some $50 calls to sell on positions to ride down to a test of 45 to 46.
MNTR 09/09 Put 30.96 -0.84 30.88 28 368K 321K 33.65
New.
MOLX 08/30 Put 28.51 -0.47 29.35 25.55 1.5M 2M 30
Current. Broke below 28 as we wanted, but then recovered. Still want it below 28 soon on the close.
MSFT 09/07 Put 48.7 +0.88 47.41 44.15 41M 45M 49.25
Current. Tanked lower as thought but then turned and rallied to the 10 day MVA.
MSTR 08/31 Test 50 12.1 +0.17 11.55 14 499K 255K 10.74
Current. Held the 10 day MVA on the close on lower volume. Needs to make another move here.
NX 08/30 BO 40.01 +0.7 40.61 46.65 98K 145K 37.77
Buy not hit. Looking decent here; just needs some volume.
PDX 08/10 Test 50 33.6 -0.04 30.55 34.55 250K 425K 31.21
Still at the 10 day MVA, though showed some rising volume.
PFE 09/07 Put 30.62 -0.13 30.55 27 20M 25M 32.15
Current. Made the move and rebounded a bit.
PIXR 08/30 Test BO 49.67 -0.1 50.25 56.55 601K 580K 48.15
Current. Holding at the 10 day MVA on a volume spike once again. Like it.
PPP 08/26 cup hdl 32.8 -0.3 34.34 41 200K 336K 31.94
Buy not hit.
PRE 09/03 Put 45.6 +0.03 43.35 40 252K 621K 44.55
Buy not issued. Looks ready to turn over here, showing a doji on lower volume right at the 18 day MVA.
RESP 09/07 cup hdl 33.15 -0.29 35.31 40.55 85K 294K 32.84
Buy not hit. Low volume, still in the handle.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 13.42 +0.64 13.8 16.75 107K 300K 12.45
Buy not hit. Making a move up in the handle on some rising volume. May be ready.
SOV 09/07 cup hdl 15.35 +0.26 15.72 18 1.3M 2M 14.62
Buy not hit. Making a strong volume move.
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 66.8 +0.79 68.25 77.85 796K 1.2M 66.50
Current. Nice recovery on some solid volume.
TIER 09/04 cup hdl 19.05 +0.17 19.45 22.35 115K 239K 18.09
Buy not hit. Still in the handle.
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 25.02 0 26.61 31.94 2.2M 1.5M 24.75
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA on the low, showing a doji on lower volume.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 25.02 0 24.75 29.85 2.2M 1.5M 24.75
Current.
WLP 08/29 Put 75.94 +1.5 73.65 68.54 996K 1.4M 74.15
Current. Back over the 50 day MVA on continued below average volume. Almost closed it out, but anticipate a test of 54 again first.
WSFS 08/10 Rv H&S 29.14 -0.46 26.25 30.25 55K 65K 27.75
Doji at the 18 day MVA after the sell off. May be ready to move back up.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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