|
|
stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) JPM: Ready to fall.
2) PEP: Ready to make us more on the downside.
3) MATK still looks good.
4) AIG: Ready to fall.
5) EME: Ditto.
6) OEX, DJX: Indexes showing that tombstone doji.
NEW PLAYS
Downside:
HON (Honeywell--$28.52; -1.68; optionable): Everything: engines, electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hon.html
STATUS: Put. Massive breakdown from the short term moving averages Wednesday on some heavy, heavy volume. The move took the stock below support at 29 and opens the door down to next support at 25. The stock has trended lower since March, under distribution all the way.
Volume: 5.712M Avg Volume: 3.21M
BUY POINT: $28.42 Volume=3.5M Target=$25 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: HON VF - Oct. $30 p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hon.html
JPM (JP Morgan--$22.98; -0.17; optionable): Big bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Put. JPM is struggling, unable to break over the short term moving averages. It tested the 50 day MVA up at 27 two weeks back and has since started a downtrend down the 10 and 18 day MVA (just over 24). It looks ready to trend lower down these short term moving averages at least down to the July low. We like these continuing downtrends.
Volume: 6.951M Avg Volume: 12.322M
BUY POINT: $22.85 Volume=12M Target=$19.85 Stop=$24.55
POSITION: JPM VE - Oct. $25p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
PEP (Pepsico--$39.49; -0.44; optionable): Soft drinks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pep.html
STATUS: Put. PEP made us downside money in August, and after a bounce up this past week, it is rolling over at the 18 day MVA (40.19) the past two sessions. We want it to clear the 10 day MVA on the downside before entering, but that is not very far. PEP is still under heavy distribution and looks ready to test toward the July lows.
Volume: 4.547M Avg Volume: 6.733M
BUY POINT: $39.35 Volume=7M Target=$36 Stop=$40.78
POSITION: PEP VV - Oct. $42.50p (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pep.html
Upside:
PSS (Payless Shoes--$56.42; +0.02; optionable): Inexpensive shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pss.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PSS blasted up off the 50 day MVA in early August on massive volume. After clearing the 200 day MVA (55.52), it is testing that level on lower volume, showing a doji Wednesday as it does. We like to pick up stocks on the test of a breakout because it shows us it has held and is ready to really move up. Accumulation during the 2.5 month base is 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Very solid. Smaller retailers have been breaking out right and left on the quiet.
Volume: 165.4K Avg Volume: 283.681K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=500K Target=$64 Stop=$54.01
POSITION: PSS LK - Dec. $55c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pss.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
GDT (Guidant--$36.51; +0.11; optionable): Medical instruments
Play Date: 08/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdt.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Really tried to make the move Wednesday on the open as did many stocks, but gave it up as did many stocks. It held the 10 day MVA on the close, and after this strange session we expect GDT to hold the line and start upside again.
Volume: 2.074M Avg Volume: 2.731M
BUY POINT: New positions: 37.25 (orig. $36.45). Volume=3.3M Target=$40.35 Stop=$33.85
POSITION: GDT AF - Jan. $30c (76 delta) or GDT JF - Oct. $30 c (78 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gdt.html
HB (Hillenbrand--$59.95; -0.14; optionable): Funerals and healthcare (kind of a conflict of interest)
Play Date: 09/05/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved up over the breakout point but did not garner the volume we wanted. We expect it tom come back and test the 10 day MVA (59) and then try another move. Keeping the same breakout point on a test of the 10 day MVA.
Volume: 121.5K Avg Volume: 180.227K
BUY POINT: $59.95 Volume=267K Target=$64.55 Stop=$55.75
POSITION: HB LK - Dec. $55c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hb.html
MATK (Martek Biosciences--$18.3; +0.3; optionable): Biotechnology
Play Date: 08/27/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matk.html
STATUS: Breakout over 50 day MVA (17.03). Trying to breakout of the tight, lateral flying plateau after breaking over the 50 day MVA two weeks back. Volume has been rising, and it was still strong Wednesday on a shortened session. MATK is close. Good accumulation and great money flow.
Volume: 292.108K Avg Volume: 291.09K
BUY POINT: New positions: 18.42 (orig. $18.25). Volume=433K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: KQT LC - Dec. $15c (76 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/matk.html
NX (Quanex--$39.7; +0.05; no options): Steel and iron mines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the lateral handle, showing a tight doji that tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (39.51) and recovering. Very nice, tight handle, and we are waiting for the big volume breakout.
Volume: 36K Avg Volume: 133.454K
BUY POINT: $40.61 Volume=145K Target=$46.65 Stop=$37.77
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nx.html
PIXR (Pixar--$49.47; +0.02; optionable): Cool animated films
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A massive breakout in August on great earnings, PIXR is still testing the move, holding above the 18 day MVA (48.74) on the lows as it tests on lower volume. This stock gave us a false jump up last week on strong volume, but we still like it and are looking for the next opportunity to buy in. That will be when it clears the recent top.
Volume: 235.91K Avg Volume: 417.954K
BUY POINT: $50.25 Volume=580K Target=$56.55 Stop=$48.15
POSITION: PQJ AI - Jan. $45c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
TIER (Tier Technologies--$19.84; -0.16; no options): Information technology
Play Date: 09/04/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tier.html
STATUS: Flat. Huge move Tuesday on strong volume, and Wednesday it backed off a bit, showing a tight doji on lower, average volume. A test back after such a strong move is normal, but now it needs to continue the move.
Volume: 192.1K Avg Volume: 167.045K
BUY POINT: New positions: 20.05 (orig. $19.45). Volume=239K Target=$22.35 Stop=$18.09
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tier.html
Downside:
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$455.41; -0.48; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Put. Showed that tombstone doji that tested the 50 day MVA and failed. Looking for a break below the short term moving averages.
Volume: 839K
BUY POINT: $452 Target=$435 (initial) Stop=$454
POSITION: OXB VL - Oct. $460p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$oex.html
$DJX (1/100 Dow Industrials--$85.81; -0.22; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$djx.html
STATUS: Put. Showed that tombstone doji as well below the 50 day MVA. It looks ready to fall on a breach of the short term moving averages.
Volume: 839K
BUY POINT: $85.24 Target=$82.25 Stop=$85.75
POSITION: DJX VK - Oct. $89p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$djx.html
AIG (American Intl. Group--$61.04; +0.04; optionable): P&C insurance
Play Date: 08/28/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to the 18 day MVA on the high (61.90) on slightly higher though still below average volume. It tailed back to close below the 10 day MVA (61.42). Looks as if it may have run out of gas though it may test 62.50 again.
Volume: 3.601M Avg Volume: 7.206M
BUY POINT: New positions: 59.95 (orig. $61.94). Volume=6.5M Target=$57.65 Stop=$64
POSITION: AIG VM - Oct. $65 put (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
AXP (American Express--$34.79; -0.21; optionable): Credit services
Play Date: 09/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axp.html
STATUS: Put. Major gap higher to 36.15 and then rolled over and hung on to close just above the simple 50 day MVA (34.55). Not huge volume but the session was shortened. It is not clear it is going to continue its fall, but we are going to be ready if it does.
Volume: 2.938M Avg Volume: 5.587M
BUY POINT: New positions: 34.33 (orig. $33.18). Volume=8.5M Target=$29.25 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: AXP VU - Oct. $37.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/axp.html
EME (Emcor Group--$52.05; -0.72; optionable): General contractors
Play Date: 09/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eme.html
STATUS: Put. Failed at the 200 day MVA (53.05) and looks ready to continue the move. We held off some positions today but are ready for tomorrow.
Volume: 62.9K Avg Volume: 122.409K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 52.35; then $51.04 Volume=155K Target=$46.65 Stop=$53
POSITION: EME VK - Oct. $55 put (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eme.html
MSFT (Microsoft--$48.58; -1.21; optionable): Application software
Play Date: 09/07/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped over the 50 day MVA, but it soon started to fall apart, ending the session below the short term moving averages on surprisingly strong volume for a short session. Looks ready for more downside.
Volume: 39.107M Avg Volume: 45.763M
BUY POINT: New positions: 47.94 (orig. $47.41). Volume=45M Target=$44.15 Stop=$49.25
POSITION: MSQ JV - Oct. $50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msft.html
PFE (Pfizer--$30.85; -0.1; optionable): Drug manufacturing
Play Date: 09/07/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfe.html
STATUS: Put. Another stock that gapped higher but could not clear the 50 day MVA. PFE spent the rest of the session selling lower on volume equal to Tuesday's upside session. Looks ready to continue the move lower.
Volume: 13.598M Avg Volume: 21.461M
BUY POINT: New positions: $30.55 Volume=25M Target=$27 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: PFE VG - Oct. $35p (-88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfe.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
NOTE: We have placed target volume in place of average volume so you can gauge how the stock is performing relative to our target.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$DJX 09/09 Put 85.81 -0.22 85.24 82.25 180K 0 85.75
Buy not hit.
$OEX 09/09 Put 455.41 -0.48 449.55 435 5.4M 0 454
Buy not hit.
ABK 08/27 Put 58.14 -0.56 57.94 53.15 242K 850K 58.05
Current. Turning back down after a doji at the down trendline Tuesday.
ACS 08/30 Put 47.1 +0.21 43.96 40.15 412K 1.2M 44.04
Current. Posted a gain on the session, but looks at least ready to test the 50 day MVA right at 46. That will be decision time.
AIG 08/28 Put 61.04 +0.04 60 55.35 3.6M 6.5M 61.55
Current. Looking ready for some more positions.
AMGN 09/04 Put 45.65 -0.4 43.94 40 8.4M 15M 45.25
Buy not issued. May be ready to fall here, but need to see volume on the selling.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 42.78 -0.62 40.65 48 1.4M 3.3M 39.94
Current. Hit 44 and pulling back to test 42.
AXP 09/03 Put 34.79 -0.21 33.18 29.25 2.9M 8.5M 34.94
Current. Gapped over the 50 day MVA and then fall back.
BMS 08/21 BO 53.8 -0.05 52.02 56.94 210K 450K 50.85
Current. Doji, holding its ground after a good move Tuesday.
BRCD 07/17 BO 13.56 +0.36 19.8 25 8.9M 17M 19
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.06 +0.03 19.2 19.8 6.1M 9M 17.25
Current. Stalled at the 10 day MVA.
CBH 08/19 cup hdl 46.81 +0.32 47.25 54.33 216K 902K 45.15
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern.
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 22.75 +0.23 22.41 25.94 102K 365K 20.84
Current. Holding its ground after the breakout.
CTSH 09/05 A Wedge 63.68 +0.87 60.35 67.94 320K 348K 56.75
Moving back up. Has the momentum.
CVS 09/09 Put 29.5 -0.18 29.24 26 603K 3.3M 30.65
Buy not issued. Could not clear the 200 day MVA and sold back to the 50 day MVA. We will wait for the higher volume breakdown.
EME 09/07 Put 52.05 -0.72 52.35 46.65 63K 155K 48.69
Buy not issued. Looks ready.
EME 09/03 Put 52.05 -0.72 51.04 46.65 63K 155K 53
FAF 09/09 cup hdl 21.36 -0.25 22.03 25.35 136K 511K 20.44
Buy not issued.
GDT 08/22 A Wedge 36.51 +0.11 36.45 40.35 2.1M 3.3M 34.55
Current. Gapped higher and fell back, holding the 10 day MVA.
HB 09/05 cup hdl 59.95 -0.14 59.95 64.55 122K 267K 55.75
Buy not issued. Needs more volume.
HON 09/11 Put 28.52 -1.68 28.42 25 5.7M 3.5M 30.45
New.
IVGN 08/03 BO 36.37 +0.21 36.1 39.88 819K 1.5M 33.57
JPM 09/11 Put 22.98 -0.17 22.85 19.85 7M 12M 24.55
New.
MATK 08/27 BO 18.3 +0.3 18.25 21.75 292K 433K 16.97
Buy not issued. Looks ready.
MEDI 08/31 Put 24.37 -0.39 25.35 22 3.5M 8.2M 26.55
Current. Gapped up to the 18 day MVA and then fell right back down. Still needs to fall below 24.
MIK 08/28 cup hdl 48.59 -0.06 43.25 51 379K 800K 44
Current. Another doji, third in a row. May be ready to test 46.50.
MNTR 09/09 Put 30.24 +0.36 30.88 28 215K 321K 33.65
Held right at 30, trying to recover.
MOLX 08/30 Put 28.66 -0.12 29.35 25.55 538K 2M 30
Current. Another doji that tested the 10 day MVA on the high and turned lower. Needs to break down and below 28.
MSFT 09/07 Put 48.58 -1.21 47.41 44.15 39M 45M 49.25
Current. Gapped higher and finished negative.
MSTR 08/31 Test 50 11.06 -0.57 11.55 14 341K 255K 10.74
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA. Volume was up Wednesday, not a good sign.
NX 08/30 BO 39.7 +0.05 40.61 46.65 36K 145K 37.77
Buy not hit.
PDX 08/10 Test 50 33.9 -0.6 30.55 34.55 72K 425K 31.21
Still riding up the 10 day MVA.
PEG 09/10 Put 33.12 -0.27 33.25 30 824K 2M 35
Current. Falling again.
PEP 09/11 Put 39.49 -0.44 39.35 36 4.5M 7M 40.78
New.
PFE 09/07 Put 30.85 -0.1 30.55 27 14M 25M 32.15
Current. Gapped up but reversed.
PIXR 08/30 Test BO 49.47 +0.02 50.25 56.55 236K 580K 48.15
Current. Still testing.
PPP 08/26 cup hdl 33.23 -0.32 34.34 41 85K 336K 31.94
Stalled at the breakout.
PRE 09/07 Put 45.7 +0.01 45.25 40 159K 621K 42.08
New buy point.
PSS 09/11 Test BO 56.42 +0.02 58.08 64 165K 500K 54.01
New.
RESP 09/07 cup hdl 33.63 +0.43 35.31 40.55 95K 294K 32.84
Buy not hit. Trying to pick up the pace with some higher volume Wednesday.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 14.79 +0.79 13.8 16.75 264K 300K 12.45
Another super move on volume.
SOV 09/07 cup hdl 14.47 -0.52 15.72 18 1.6M 2M 14.62
Buy not hit. Turning the wrong way.
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 67.2 +0.4 68.25 77.85 297K 1.2M 66.50
Current. Moved up and held some of the move Wednesday.
TIER 09/04 cup hdl 19.84 -0.16 19.45 22.35 192K 239K 18.09
Testing the big move Tuesday.
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 26.63 +0.16 26.61 31.94 1.1M 1.5M 24.75
Current. Not a bad session as it held its ground.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 26.63 +0.16 24.75 29.85 1.1M 1.5M 24.75
Current.
WLP 08/29 Put 76.99 +0.19 73.65 68.54 580K 1.4M 74.15
Current. A tombstone doji on lower volume at the August high. What we want right now is a test of 74 to exit.
WSFS 08/10 Rv H&S 26.08 0 26.25 30.25 36K 65K 27.75
Tough days for regional banks, falling to the simple 50 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock pick
|
