|
|
stock watch, stock trading site
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
MMSI made the big breakout.
Best Plays:
1) UNT: Solid accumulation.
2) KDE: Making a breakout move.
3) PL, RF: Testing the break of support.
4) APOL: Looks ready for a breakout.
5) CENT: Still in the good pattern.
6) COCO: Education is hot.
7) PDCO: Very good move on volume.
8) GDW: Struggling at the 10 day MVA.
9) SY: Testing higher on low volume.
NEW PLAYS
Upside:
UNT (Unit Corp.--$18; +0.55; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unt.html
STATUS: Cup. In a 5-month base we are calling a cup. It is in a 5 week ascending wedge inside the larger pattern that sports solid accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Relative strength is ready to breakout and it is higher now that it was when the stock was at 20 back in May. Wednesday showed a good volume increase as the stock moved well off of its 18 day MVA.
Volume: 250.9K Avg Volume: 170.045K
BUY POINT: $18.31 Volume=255K Target=$22 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: UNT CC - Mar. $15c (-70 delta, no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/unt.html
KDE (4Kids Entertainment--$21.07; +0.81; optionable): Toys and such
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kde.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. KDE is ready to break out of a large ascending wedge. It has demonstrated very good price/volume action, and relative strength is breaking out with the Wednesday move that came on a strong surge in above average volume. Looks ready to make the move to the next level.
Volume: 164.5K Avg Volume: 119.681K
BUY POINT: $21.31 Volume=180K Target=$25.55 Stop=$19.82
POSITION: KDE BW - Feb. $17.50c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kde.html
Downside:
PL (Protective Life--$30.55; +0.55; optionable): Life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pl.html
STATUS: Put. Testing breach of 200 day MVA (30.92). PL blasted below its 200 day MVA Friday, and it has made a lower volume move back up to test that breach. Wednesday the stock tested toward the 200 day MVA on the high (30.83) and then closed off that high as volume rose. It may try to test that level once more, and after that we will move in when it fades back.
Volume: 192.3K Avg Volume: 193K
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=200K Target=$27.45 Stop=$31.55
POSITION: PL WG - Nov. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pl.html
RF (Regions Financial--$32.64; +1.13; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rf.html
STATUS: Put. Another stock that plowed below its 200 day MVA a week ago, RF caught support at 31.50 and after trading their for three sessions moved up. Volume, however, has been on lower and lower volume (thought still solid). Wednesday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the high (32.80). It might rally a bit further toward 33.50 before rolling over. When it does we will let it stall and pick up positions on the way back down.
Volume: 669.6K Avg Volume: 659.545K
BUY POINT: After a test of 33.50, $32.95 Volume=650K Target=$30 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: RF MG - Nov. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rf.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$29.13; +0.05; optionable): Keep on trucking
Play Date: 09/24/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
STATUS: Breakout. Took a breather Wednesday after Tuesday's breakout of its 9-month cup with handle base on news that ROAD was going to see business pickup in Q4 based on rising demand right now. ABFS showed a doji on lower though still strong volume. We will let it take its breather and then pick it up as it starts back up and clears 29.41. Outstanding accumulation (8 up weeks on rising volume to just 4 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 569.881K Avg Volume: 285.318K
BUY POINT: $29.45 Volume=421K Target=$33.45 Stop=$27.14
POSITION: FDQ LE - Dec. $25c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abfs.html
APOL (Apollo Group--$43.48; +1.25; optionable): Education and training
Play Date: 08/15/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Very close to making the move we want for new positions, reaching up to 44 Wednesday on rising, average volume.
Volume: 2.295M Avg Volume: 2.31M
BUY POINT: New positions: 43.55 Volume=3.3M Target=$50 Stop=$41.50
POSITION: AKA KY - Nov. $36.625 c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$16.04; +0.24; optionable): Wholesale industrial equipment
Play Date: 09/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the 3-month base and showing solid volume the Monday and Wednesday. Setting up for the breakout. Accumulation is excellent and money flow is shooting up ahead of the move. Still looks super.
Volume: 177.3K Avg Volume: 139K
BUY POINT: $16.15 Volume=300K Target=$18.15 Stop=$14.94
POSITION: EQH KV - Nov. $12.50c (82 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$37.2; +1.28; optionable): Education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Good move off of the 18 day MVA (39.97) on some rising though still below average volume. Looks ready to breakout as the education sector looks solid.
Volume: 591.947K Avg Volume: 827.727K
BUY POINT: $38.11 Volume=809K Target=$42.75 Stop=$35.44
POSITION: UCS BF - Feb. $30c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/coco.html
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$20.45; +1.79; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Big breakout Wednesday on strong volume. We now ride the current positions.
Volume: 374.931K Avg Volume: 129.545K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions ($19.51). Volume=150K Target=$22.55 Stop=$17.88
POSITION: RMQ AW - Jan. $17.50c (65 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mmsi.html
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$52.28; +1.65; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
Play Date: 09/21/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving up in the handle of its 3-month base on very strong volume. Looking for the breakout on continued strong volume.
Volume: 797.206K Avg Volume: 378.59K
BUY POINT: $53.21 Volume=557K Target=$61.25 Stop=$49.49
POSITION: DOU AJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) or DOU AI - Dec. $45c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdco.html
PRX (Pharmaceutical Resources--$27.3; +0.46; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Sold down to the 50 day MVA on the low (26.46) and rallied back to close right at the 10 day MVA. Volume was lower as it continues to work through the pattern. Good accumulation in the pattern at 3 up weeks on rising volume to just one down week on rising volume. Need to see the big volume breakout.
Volume: 251.2K Avg Volume: 293.863K
BUY POINT: $28.91 Volume=525K Target=$34.65 Stop=$26.89
POSITION: PRX KE - Nov. $25c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prx.html
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$68.74; +0.87; optionable): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. TEVA continues to work up the 50 day MVA (66.35) bouncing up off of that level the past two sessions, Wednesday on strong volume. Looks ready for a breakout over 69.25 where new positions can be taken.
Volume: 1.167M Avg Volume: 881.318K
BUY POINT: New positions: 69.25 (orig. $68.25). Volume=1.2M Target=$77.85 Stop=$66.50
POSITION: TVQ LM - Dec. $65c (66 delta) OR TVQ LL - Dec. $60c (81 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teva.html
Downside:
GDW (Golden West Financial--$61.95; +0.37; optionable): Savings and loan
Play Date: 09/21/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Put. Rolling over at the 10 day MVA (62.72) after three attempts to clear it. Looks ready for a further fall as it has not buyside interest.
Volume: 754.1K Avg Volume: 682.136K
BUY POINT: New positions: 61.45 (orig. $62.29). Volume=675K Target=$58.55 Stop=$63.85
POSITION: GDW WM - Nov. $65p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gdw.html
LH (Laboratory Corp.--$33.29; +1.22; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Put. Started back up after the plunge, but doing so on lighter and lighter volume as it approaches the 50 day MVA (34.21). The light volume recovery indicates a failure at the 50 day, and we are adjusting the buy point to take advantage of a failure at that point.
Volume: 1.831M Avg Volume: 1.937M
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$27.75 Stop=$35
POSITION: LH WG - Nov. $35p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lh.html
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$36.56; +0.9; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Put. STJ is rising up toward the 50 day MVA also (37.03). We will see if the stock turns and falls at that level for some new positions.
Volume: 1.158M Avg Volume: 1.266M
BUY POINT: New positions: 36.25 (orig. $35.95) Volume=1.9M Target=$32.05 Stop=$37.35
POSITION: STJ MH - Jan. $40p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
SY (Sybase--$12.09; +0.59; optionable): Application software
Play Date: 09/19/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html
STATUS: Put. SY bounced as well, rising up to the 10 day MVA on the high (12.43) and falling back from there. Volume fell even lower on this move. This looks very much like a low volume test of the breach of the 50 day MVA (12.79).
Volume: 317.7K Avg Volume: 625.09K
BUY POINT: After a test of 13: $12.75. From here: 11.95. The options are inexpensive so that is plenty of room to make some good money. Volume=680K Target=$10 Stop=$13.55
POSITION: SY XV - Dec. $12.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sy.html
WEN (Wendys International--$32.76; +0.54; optionable): Burgers and fries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wen.html
STATUS: Put. Rose on the session as well, but on lower, below average volume. It tested the 18 day MVA on the high (33.11), showing a doji. This is giving the test of the 18 day MVA after all.
Volume: 1.163M Avg Volume: 1.357M
BUY POINT: 32.15. Volume=1.6M Target=$30 (initial) Stop=$33.33
POSITION: WEN XG - Dec. $35p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wen.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Still looking good: CENT
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 09/21 Bounce 421.68 +10.81 424.45 438 13M 0 419
Recovered on a strong session. Have to watch the short term MVA at 436.72.
ABFS 09/24 BO 29.13 +0.05 29.18 33.45 570K 421K 27.14
Buy not issued. Took the day off.
AET 09/23 Put 37.37 +0.62 38.65 35.85 1.3M 1.7M 40.25
Bounced but on lower volume.
AMGN 09/04 Put 44.06 +1.99 43.94 40 17M 15M 45.25
Bounced up to the 50 day MVA in a biotech recovery.
AMLN 09/18 cup hdl 15 +0.47 13.55 16.25 1.8M 750K 12.45
Current. Another good move up on strong, above average volume.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 43.48 +1.25 40.65 48 2.3M 3.3M 39.94
Current. Looks like it will go again.
AXP 09/03 Put 31.7 +0.74 33.18 29.25 4.7M 8.5M 33.55
Current. Lower volume test of 32. Cannot get below 30. On another test of 30 we will take the gain.
BDK 09/16 Put 42.86 +2.46 42.81 38.45 1.3M 850K 43.55
Current. Held at 40 and took off. May have to exit as volume was very strong.
BLC 05/25 Flat 23.2 +0.49 24.25 30 258K 342K 22.55
Buy not hit.
BMS 08/21 BO 50.25 +0.32 52.02 56.94 373K 450K 50.85
Exited.
BRCD 07/17 BO 10.37 +0.64 19.8 25 16M 17M 19
BRCM 08/17 CCall 13.9 +1.13 19.2 19.8 10M 9M 17.25
Current. Up to the 10 day MVA.
CENT 09/12 BO 16.04 +0.24 16.15 18.15 177K 300K 14.94
Buy not hit. Still in the pattern. Some rising volume.
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 22.35 +0.89 22.41 25.94 344K 365K 20.84
Strong move off the 50 day MVA on strong volume.
CTSH 09/14 Test BO 54.9 +1.2 63.32 70 752K 348K 58.89
Trying to recover after the gap lower Tuesday. May get a test of 57.
CTSH 09/05 A Wedge 54.9 +1.2 60.35 67.94 752K 348K 56.75
CUB 09/18 Put 18.31 +0.45 18.98 16 76K 85K 21
Current. Held 18 on low volume.
GDW 09/21 Put 61.95 +0.37 62.29 58.55 754K 675K 63.85
Current. Really struggling at the 10 day MVA.
GDW 09/14 Put 61.95 +0.37 63.54 60 754K 675K 64.55
Current.
GLG 09/18 cup hdl 9.98 +0.13 10.59 12.75 1.1M 1.3M 9.45
Buy not hit. Holding the pattern in a wild ride to the 50 day MVA Wednesday.
GSK 09/21 Put 36.85 +1.34 35.95 32 863K 1.5M 37.35
Buy not issued. Up to test the 10 day MVA on below average volume. We anticipate it will fall from here after a test of the shorter MVA.
HD 09/16 Test 50 27.6 -0.81 34.55 38 23M 10M 32.13
Tanking on high volume. No life in the stock and if it does not hold here it is really going to fall as there is some support at 27.
KDE 09/25 A Wedge 21.07 +0.81 21.31 25.55 164K 180K 19.82
New.
LEXR 09/21 cup hdl 4.05 0 4.31 5.15 442K 650K 3.95
Buy not issued. Held the 50 day MVA.
LH 09/24 Put 33.29 +1.22 31.78 27.75 1.8M 2.5M 33
Buy not issued. Moving back up on lower volume to test the 50 day MVA. The lower volume indicates it will fall.
MMSI 09/23 A Wedge 20.45 +1.79 20.5 24.65 375K 150K 18.94
Current. Hit the buy on strong volume.
MSTR 08/31 Test 50 9.34 -0.38 11.55 14 540K 255K 10.74
Could not recover below the 50 day MVA. Exited.
PDCO 09/21 cup hdl 52.28 +1.65 53.21 61.25 797K 557K 49.49
Buy not issued. Looks super.
PFE 09/07 Put 29.3 +1.3 30.55 27 22M 25M 30.25
Current. Jumped up to the 10 day MVA and stalled.
PIXR 08/30 Test BO 46.7 +0.24 50.25 56.55 820K 580K 48.15
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on a big volume spike.
PL 09/25 Put 30.55 +0.55 30.45 27.45 192K 200K 31.55
New.
POS 09/19 Put 27.9 +0.41 29.15 26 290K 265K 29.45
Managed a doji at 28 but still low volume.
PRX 08/20 cup hdl 27.3 +0.46 28.91 34.65 251K 525K 26.89
Buy not hit. Held at the 50 day MVA.
PSS 09/11 Test BO 56.3 +0.23 58.08 64 221K 500K 55.45
Exited.
RESP 09/19 Put 32.54 +0.67 30.98 28 122K 250K 32.55
Buy not issued. Rallied up to the 50 day MVA but on low volume. Watching for it to fall back.
RF 09/25 Put 32.64 +1.13 32.95 30 670K 650K 33.65
New.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 15.15 +0.03 13.8 16.75 141K 300K 13.75
Current. Rising still, but Wednesday on very low volume.
SHRP 09/14 cup hdl 19.48 +0.22 20.85 25 172K 200K 19.39
Buy not hit.
STJ 09/21 Put 36.56 +0.9 35.95 32.05 1.2M 1.9M 37.35
Buy not hit.
STT 09/17 Put 38.91 +1.4 39.59 35.75 1.4M 1.5M 40.97
Current. Rallying to test the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the downtrend.
SY 09/19 Put 12.09 +0.59 12.75 10 318K 680K 13.55
Buy not issued.
TCB 09/17 Put 42.5 +0.82 44.65 40.75 917K 375K 44.25
Current. Bounced up on some massive volume. Will watch and take profit if shows continued strength.
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 68.74 +0.87 68.25 77.85 1.2M 1.2M 66.50
Current. Good volume move.
TIER 09/04 cup hdl 19.2 -0.1 20.21 23.25 161K 239K 18.65
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA on the low and recovered to close at the 18 day MVA.
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 27 +0.22 26.61 31.94 1.2M 1.5M 24.75
Current. Up again on above average volume.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 27 +0.22 24.75 29.85 1.2M 1.5M 24.75
Current.
UNT 09/25 Cup 18 +0.55 18.31 22 251K 255K 16.95
New.
UNTD 09/21 Test 50 9.86 +0.34 11.03 13.35 984K 800K 10.26
Buy not issued; not doing it.
WEN 09/21 Put 32.76 +0.54 32.75 30 1.2M 1.6M 33.33
Current. Low volume test of the 18 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock watch
stock trading site
|
