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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Wednesday plays:
OVER: Started rolling up but not a lot of volume.
CVTX: Moved up to test the 50 day MVA on lower volume.
AEM: Did not give the breakout move as the market was in a better mood and gold was put on the back burner for now.
Best Plays:
1) LBIX: Making a strong move.
2) SWFT: Looks ready to roll back up.
3) Continuing: SY: Low volume move up to test the 10 day MVA. WEN tsting the 18 day MVA on lower volume as well.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
LBIX (Leading Brands--$2.89; +0.35; no options): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lbix.html
STATUS: Cup. LBIX made a strong move Wednesday on volume, moving up the right side of its 11-week base. It shows excellent accumulation at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Relative strength is breaking out well ahead of its July high over 3.25. It has had a great '02, and this is its first real base after that run, a good time to get in.
Volume: 240.3K Avg Volume: 99.954K
BUY POINT: $2.95 Volume=150K Target=$4 Stop=$2.45
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lbix.html
SWFT (Swift Transportation--$17.25; +0.39; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swft.html
STATUS: Rolling. SWFT is in a range from just below 17 up to 19 on the high. It has made the move twice before in the last 7 weeks, and Wednesday it started back up. Volume was not very solid being still below average. Still, if it clears the 10 day MVA we will be willing to move in and take the ride up. That gives roughly a 9% gain on stock positions from a pretty regular pattern. We will take that.
Volume: 424.335K Avg Volume: 607.909K
BUY POINT: $17.4 Volume=600K Target=$19 Stop=$16.18
POSITION: SDU AC - Jan. $15c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/swft.html
Downside:
WB (Wachovia Corp.--$32.77; +0.89; optionable): Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wb.html
STATUS: Put. WB is under the gun still, tanking through the 200 day MVA in 35 last week on some huge volume. It has managed to hold at 32 and looks as if it is going to try to move up to test the short term moving averages. The 10 day MVA is at 33.57. We look for a move up to there or the 18 day MVA at 34.20 and then a fall with the rest of the market if it stalls at the short term MVA.
Volume: 3.296M Avg Volume: 3.352M
BUY POINT: After a test up to 33.50 to 34.20, $33.25 on the way back down. Volume=4M Target=$30 Stop=$34.55
POSITION: WB MG - Jan. $35p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wb.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
CUB 09/18 Put 18.31 +0.45 18.98 16 76K 85K 21
Current. Held 18 on low volume.
QLGC 08/17 CCall 29.83 +1.73 36.48 0 15M 12M 33.55
Current. Bounced up to the 10 day MVA on continued above average volume.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 09/21 Bounce 421.68 +10.81 424.45 438 13M 0 419
Recovered on a strong session. Have to watch the short term MVA at 436.72.
ADLR 09/21 cup hdl 14 +0.04 14.74 17.74 260K 161K 13.65
Buy not hit. Still holding the handle above the 18 day MVA.
AEM 09/19 cup hdl 16.09 -0.76 17.05 20.55 890K 1.2M 15.75
Buy not hit. Gold took a hit as the rest of the market rallied.
ALLY 09/07 cup hdl 15.86 +1.1 15.86 18.25 753K 675K 14.55
Current. Held the 50 day MVA and rallied sharply on above average volume.
AMGP 08/28 cup hdl 30.24 +0.26 30.32 34.94 179K 350K 28.65
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA. Trying to move.
AMMD 09/05 cup hdl 20.71 -0.04 23.57 27 237K 420K 21.92
Buy not hit. Not doing it.
CARS 08/30 cup hdl 24.22 -0.23 25.18 28.95 130K 400K 23.42
Buy not issued. Holding the 50 day MVA on below average volume. Still holding up.
CCCG 09/12 Cup 13.65 +0.65 13.45 16.15 74K 51K 12.41
Current. Hit the buy on some solid volume.
CNMD 09/23 Put 19.86 +0.73 18.49 16 110K 220K 19.25
Buy not hit.
COH 08/22 cup hdl 27.66 +0.9 27.55 33 644K 1.4M 28
COH 08/13 BO 27.66 +0.9 25.55 30 644K 1.4M 28
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA, but not a lot of volume.
CUB 09/18 Put 18.31 +0.45 18.98 16 76K 85K 21
Current. Held 18 on low volume.
CVTX 09/24 Put 21.54 +1.71 19.65 16 531K 750K 21.25
Buy not hit. Moving up to test the 50 day MVA.
FTN 09/14 Put 35.05 +1 36.59 32.85 462K 500K 36.35
Buy not hit on this one. Moved up to test the 10 day MVA on lower, average volume.
GLG 09/18 cup hdl 9.98 +0.13 10.59 12.75 1.1M 1.3M 9.45
Buy not hit. Still holding the pattern.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 19.75 +1.02 0 0 548K 1M 0
JP 08/30 Put 39.77 +0.7 41.72 38.55 558K 700K 41.35
Current. Bounced on some rising volume but still not over 40.
KKD 09/21 Put 30.69 +0.09 32.4 29.65 1.2M 875K 33.75
Current. Did not partake in the move up, just did not sell.
LBIX 09/25 Cup 2.89 +0.35 2.95 4 240K 150K 2.45
New.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 41.63 +1.02 0 0 6.8M 0 0
NCC 09/17 Put 28.3 +0.9 28.96 25.95 1.2M 14M 29.75
Current. Bounced up to test the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 125.41 -0.92 0 0 1.3M 1.7M 0
OVER 09/24 BO 21.81 +0.86 21.11 24.25 933K 2M 19.63
Current. Moved up to the 50 day MVA in the roll higher, but no volume.
PETM 08/26 cup hdl 18.64 +0.51 17.04 20.45 1.4M 2.8M 17.25
Current. Moving back up but not a lot of volume.
PG 09/21 Test 18 89.1 +1.06 91.55 103 4.3M 5.5M 89.45
QLGC 08/17 CCall 29.83 +1.73 36.48 0 15M 12M 33.55
Current. Bounced up to the 10 day MVA on continued above average volume.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 50.18 -0.52 58.02 66.45 644K 701K 53.96
SCSS 09/21 cup hdl 6.01 -0.03 6.02 7.25 385K 200K 5.61
Current. Took a rest.
SWFT 09/25 Test 18 17.25 +0.39 17.4 19 424K 600K 16.18
New.
SY 09/19 Put 12.09 +0.59 12.75 10 318K 680K 13.55
Buy not issued. Rallying up to test the 10 day MVA on the high but on very low volume.
TT 09/19 cup hdl 13.52 +0.02 13.71 16.55 4.9K 50K 12.71
Buy not issued. Up again but on very low volume.
UPC 09/17 Put 27.62 +0.95 28.32 26 1.2M 615K 28.95
Current. Bounced up toward the 10 day MVA (28) on a big volume surge. May have to get out if it moves over 28 on the close.
VMI 09/10 BO 23.88 +0.37 24.23 26.85 36K 120K 22.53
VMI 08/30 BO 23.88 +0.37 22.38 26.85 36K 120K 23
Current. Bouncing up off of the 50 day MVA still, but not a lot of volume Wednesday after the big volume Tuesday.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 16.09 +2.37 19.76 20 24M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Big spike higher to the 18 day MVA on some mega volume.
VWKS 08/30 cup hdl 7.85 +0.45 8.45 10.25 207K 890K 7.86
Buy not issued. Back over the 50 day MVA to hold the pattern. We will see.
WB 09/25 Put 32.77 +0.89 33.25 30 3.3M 4M 34.55
New.
WEN 09/21 Put 32.76 +0.54 32.75 30 1.2M 1.6M 33.33
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on the high on lower volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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