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understanding the stock market, stock trading site
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TEAM TRADES
MRK: A wide array of sectors are under pressure, big drugs as well. MRK is a Daily play as a stock that had rallied to the 50 day MVA and failed on high volume. It started down again Monday as did most stocks, hitting the buy point in the first half hour. We were looking at some November put options, and when the buy was hit they were trading 5.00 by 5.20. The limit was put in at the ask price and that was sufficient even though the stock continued to fall. The stock moved lower to 45.10 (buy at 46.08), but then bounced mid-morning with the rest of the market. The options made it back to the buy point after moving up to 5.60 and higher, but then the stock rolled back over, the options closing at 5.20 by 5.40.
THE PLAYS:
Monday plays:
DL: Forming the handle nicely.
STE: Continued the big breakout.
MRK: Heading lower on continued strong volume.
OEX: Ducked lower fast and hit the target.
Best Plays:
1) MSN: Looks ready for more upside.
2) WEN: Ready to tank again.
3) Continuing: DL: Still working on that handle. ADLR: Very tight and a doji on rising volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
MSN (Emerson Radio--$3.7; +0.07; no options): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MSN has enjoyed a very nice 2 months, rising as the market has fallen. It is now testing the big move it made in early September, moving along the 18 day MVA on the low (3.48), gathering strength for the next move. Monday MSN tested the 18 day MVA and rallied positive on rising volume (still below average). Accumulation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume.
Volume: 114.9K Avg Volume: 124.09K
BUY POINT: $3.91 Volume=200K Target=$5.45 Stop=$3.59
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/msn.html
Downside:
CMCSA (Comcast--$21.33; -1.67; optionable): Cable TV
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmcsa.html
STATUS: Put. CMCSA tried the 50 day MVA (23.29) Thursday and then broke down on heavy volume Monday. This move continues the downtrend that has been in place since December and took out some price support at 22. Looks ready to head sharply lower here.
Volume: 515.6K Avg Volume: 228.279K
BUY POINT: $21.18 Volume=300K Target=$18 Stop=$23.35
POSITION: CCQ ME - Jan. $25p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cmcsa.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 09/21/2002
WEN (Wendys International--$33.11; -1.29; optionable): Hamburger joint
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wen.html
STATUS: Test of 200 day MVA breach. WEN rallied up to the 200 day MVA (34.66) and then rolled back over big time Monday on much stronger, above average volume. It broke below the short term MVA on the move. Looking for a further move down from here. Buy point is at 32.75, but we are willing to take new positions on a move below 33 on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.885M Avg Volume: 1.354M
BUY POINT: $32.75 Volume=1.6M Target=$30 Stop=$33.33
POSITION: WEN XG - Dec. $35p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wen.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
CUB 09/18 Put 18.06 -1.19 18.98 16 49K 85K 21
Current. It was ready to roll back down. Turned from the 18 day MVA and fell hard to the 18 day MVA. This is its critical point it needs to break.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 126.76 0 0 0 1.1M 1.7M 0
A nice consolidation above the 18 day MVA after the July plunge. The high is near 130, and a break over that is a buy point.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 09/28 Put 407.25 -5.97 411 395 13M 0 415
Buy not issued. Tanked hard and fast early and was down near the target point without giving much of a chance to enter.
ADLR 09/21 cup hdl 14.02 +0.02 14.74 17.74 190K 161K 13.65
Buy not hit. Showing a doji at the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume.
AEM 09/19 cup hdl 16.01 +0.33 17.05 20.55 1.1M 1.2M 15.75
Buy not hit.
ALLY 09/07 cup hdl 15.46 -0.16 15.86 18.25 693K 675K 14.55
Current. Holding at the 10 day MVA with a big doji on rising, above average volume.
AMGP 08/28 cup hdl 33.55 +0.25 30.32 34.94 2.6M 350K 28.65
Current. Continues the move up on huge volume, but closed well off the high at the pre-correction high.
CARS 08/30 cup hdl 24.98 -0.05 25.18 28.95 137K 400K 23.42
Buy not issued. Still working laterally over the 50 day MVA.
CCCG 09/12 Cup 13.07 +0.17 13.45 16.15 60K 51K 12.41
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
CMCSA 09/30 Put 21.33 -1.67 21.18 18 516K 300K 23.35
New.
COH 08/22 cup hdl 25.6 -1.51 27.55 33 1.1M 1.4M 28
Exited.
COH 08/13 BO 25.6 -1.51 25.55 30 1.1M 1.4M 28
Exited.
COO 09/26 cup hdl 52.5 -0.09 54 61 477K 375K 50.22
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on a doji.
CUB 09/18 Put 17 -1.06 18.98 16 129K 85K 21
Current. Tanking on strong volume once again.
CVTX 09/24 Put 20.91 +0.16 19.65 16 426K 750K 21.25
Buy not issued. Riding on the 10 day MVA.
DL 09/28 cup hdl 21.46 -0.14 21.84 25.55 711K 712K 20.31
Buy not hit. Forming the handle now.
GE 09/26 Put 24.65 +0.18 26.25 24 50M 35M 27.85
Hit the target.
GLG 09/18 cup hdl 9.25 -0.27 10.59 12.75 862K 1.3M 9.45
Buy not hit. Testing the 50 day MVA again.
JP 08/30 Put 40.1 -0.11 41.72 38.55 503K 700K 41.35
Current. Tested back down to 39 and bounced. Still below the 10 day MVA.
KKD 09/21 Put 31.26 +0.96 32.4 29.65 1.5M 875K 33.75
Current. Held 30 and bounced. Closed well of the high at 32.
LBIX 09/25 Cup 2.49 -0.3 2.95 4 95K 150K 2.45
Current. Turned on higher volume. Held the 18 day MVA, but too much selling.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 41.4 -1.08 0 0 7.3M 0 0
MRK 09/28 Put 45.71 -0.55 46.08 43.75 7.4M 7M 48.65
Current. Sold lower on continued above average volume.
MSN 09/30 Test 18 3.7 +0.07 3.91 5.45 115K 200K 3.59
New.
NCC 09/17 Put 28.53 +0.1 28.96 25.95 1.7M 14M 29.75
Current. Tested 27.50 again and rallied back up on strong volume. Still below the 10 day MVA.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 124.04 -2.72 0 0 1.5M 1.7M 0
OVER 09/24 Rolling 23.57 +1.54 21.11 24.25 3M 2M 19.63
Target hit.
PETM 08/26 cup hdl 17.81 -0.08 17.04 20.45 2.6M 2.8M 17.25
Current. Right at the 18 day MVA after reaching lower and recovered on much stronger volume. Very careful here as move up was on low volume.
PG 09/21 Test 18 89.38 +1.25 91.55 103 6.8M 5.5M 89.45
QLGC 08/17 CCall 26.04 -0.92 36.48 0 15M 12M 33.55
Current. Doji on lower volume.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 51.95 -0.02 58.02 66.45 663K 701K 53.96
RFMD 09/05 Roller 6 -0.37 6.08 9 4.1M 9.5M 5.65
Current. Holding 6 again.
SCSS 09/21 cup hdl 6.15 -0.04 6.02 7.25 346K 200K 5.61
Current. Reached way down to 5.29 on the low and rallied back. Really wild day on the consumer news and the dock workers' potential strike. Holding for now but being very careful.
STE 09/28 BO 24.91 +1.16 23.95 28.75 1.1M 711K 22.12
Current. Nice move.
SWFT 09/25 Test 18 15.6 -1.24 17.4 19 2.2M 600K 16.35
Exited.
SY 09/19 Put 11.62 -0.3 12.75 10 435K 680K 13.55
Buy not issued. Falling lower.
TT 09/19 cup hdl 13.5 +0.01 13.71 16.55 14K 50K 12.71
Buy not hit. Still holding at the 10 day MVA.
UPC 09/17 Put 27.46 +0.06 28.32 26 467K 615K 28.95
Current. Reached down to 26.51 and bounced. Very low volume. Looks to be going back down.
VMI 09/10 BO 23.35 +0.2 24.23 26.85 43K 120K 22.53
VMI 08/30 BO 23.35 +0.2 22.38 26.85 43K 120K 23
Current. Holding at support at 23.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 14.67 -0.45 19.76 20 9.7M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Holding right below the 10 day MVA.
VWKS 08/30 cup hdl 7.27 -0.72 8.45 10.25 367K 890K 7.86
Buy not hit. Tanking below the 50 day MVA.
WB 09/25 Put 32.69 -0.28 33.25 30 4M 4M 34.15
Current. Tested 32 again and bounced on strong volume. Still below resistance at 33 and the 10 day MVA.
WEN 09/21 Put 33.11 -1.29 32.75 30 1.9M 1.6M 33.33
Current. Looks ready for more downside.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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understanding the stock market
stock trading site
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