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stock recommendation, stock prices
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) BER: Ready to fall.
2) DP: Forming a handle.
3) ABFS: Good doji on the 10 day MVA.
4) IDXX: Very solid.
5) ITRU: Very nice handle.
6) PDCO: Forming up its handle nicely as well.
7) ACS: Falling and still in range.
8) UBS: Still weak.
9) Continuing list: UTHR
NEW PLAYS
Downside:
BER (W.R. Berkley--$33.19; -1.39; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Put. Wednesday was a bad day for insurance as many that had been trying to recover started lower on rising volume. BER was among the group, falling to a critical level at 33 on rising, above average volume. We are looking to a quick run to 31. The options have a good price to delta and can provide a nice return on a quick duck lower.
Volume: 193.9K Avg Volume: 175.545K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=190K Target=$30.88 Stop=$34.55
POSITION: BER WG - Nov. $35p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ber.html
NTRS (Northern Trust--$37.50; -1.96; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntrs.html
STATUS: Put. Financials were failing Wednesday ahead of the market, leading the way lower. Volume spiked up on the selling as the stock continues its downtrend. Looking for one more fall toward the July lows. Some support at 36 could slow the move for a session or two before it continues lower to the target.
Volume: 3.068K Avg Volume: 1.50K
BUY POINT: $37.11 Volume=2M Target=$34 Stop=$39
POSITION: NRQ WH - Nov. $40p (-72 delta) or NRQ MH - Jan. $40p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntrs.html
Upside:
DP (Diagnostic Products--$46.35; -0.74; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DP is starting to form a handle to its 4.5 month base after a breakout over the 200 day MVA at 41.50 and a strong surge up last week on excellent volume. It needs a bit of a rest and looks as if it will settle back toward the 10 day MVA near 45 with a lateral move. That will give the stock some time to rest and then make another serious move. Accumulation is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding as DP has been a recent leader as it builds the right side of its base.
Volume: 207.9K Avg Volume: 176.636K
BUY POINT: $47.74 Volume=260K Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.4
POSITION: DP CI - Mar. $45c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/24/2002
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$28.88; -0.11; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. ABFS made a huge break over the 200 day MVA near 25.50 in early September and is now bouncing up the short term moving averages as strong stocks do as they trend higher. ABFS is now in the process of its second test of the short term MVA, closing just over that level with a tight doji on continued below average volume. 30 represents some resistance, but on a good volume bounce ABFS should have no trouble with that level and continue moving up the short terms.
Volume: 291.375K Avg Volume: 296.727K
BUY POINT: $29.18 Volume=421K Target=$33.45 Stop=$27.14
POSITION: FDQ LE - Dec. $25c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abfs.html
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$17.72; +0.27; optionable): Wholesale industrial equipment
Play Date: 09/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CENT made the breakout but volume has not been huge as it has made the move. Volume has been up on most up days, a silver lining, but no real breakout trade. Given the lower volume we anticipate it could have trouble with the pre-correction high at 18. For new positions we want a move over 18.20 on that breakout level volume.
Volume: 158.764K Avg Volume: 126.636K
BUY POINT: New positions: 18.25. (orig. 16.95 and $16.15) Volume=300K Target=$18.15 Stop=$15.75
POSITION: EQH KV - Nov. $12.50c (82 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$37.29; -1.14; optionable): Education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. After Tuesday's strong move COCO turned back Wednesday, suffering more or less all session. Volume matched Tuesday trade, no an overly encouraging sign. It closed just above the 10 day MVA (37.25). Still in good shape, but it needs to hold this pattern.
Volume: 1.009M Avg Volume: 767.363K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $38.11 Volume=809K Target=$42.75 Stop=$35.44
POSITION: UCS BF - Feb. $30c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/coco.html
DIAN (Dianon Systems--$44.4; -1.66; optionable): Medical labs
Play Date: 09/28/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
STATUS: A quick turn back from Friday's solid move on solid volume. DIAN reversed and is now resting right on top of the 10 day MVA as volume is lower but still above average. Could just be a rest as the market reversed as it is sitting on top of the August high. This is where it needs to hold if it is going to continue the move it started Friday. Otherwise it starts over.
Volume: 328.217K Avg Volume: 393.772K
BUY POINT: New positions: 46.28 (orig. $46.28) Volume=425K Target=$50 Stop=$43.04
POSITION: UID KI - Nov. $45c (60 delta) or UID BI - Feb. $45c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dian.html
Play Date: 09/26/2002
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$31.34; -0.15; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji on top of the 10 day MVA at 31 as volume backed off on market selling. Very good action in market selling as IDXX continues in the handle of the 4-month base. Excellent accumulation at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Money flow is ahead of the price, and relative strength is ahead of where it was at the May high.
Volume: 240.217K Avg Volume: 285.363K
BUY POINT: $32.11 Volume=468K Target=$36.75 Stop=$29.86
POSITION: IQX LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxx.html
Play Date: 09/26/2002
ITRU (Intertrust Technologies--$3.1; -0.02; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itru.html
STATUS: Cup. What a nice handle to the 3-month cup base. Volume continued below average as ITRU tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (3.05) and recovered a bit. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Looks ready.
Volume: 205.5K Avg Volume: 372.09K
BUY POINT: $3.35 Volume=550K Target=$4.75 Stop=$2.99
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itru.html
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$50.78; -0.39; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
Play Date: 09/21/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working slightly lower in a very nice 2-week handle to the 3.5 month base. A rising start doji Wednesday that held the 18 day MVA on the close (50.65) could signal the stock is ready to try a move up for the breakout.
Volume: 324.685K Avg Volume: 384.045K
BUY POINT: $53.21 Volume=557K Target=$61.25 Stop=$49.49
POSITION: DOU AJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) or DOU AI - Dec. $45c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdco.html
Downside:
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$41.06; -3.5; optionable): ITS
Play Date: 09/28/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Testing 18 day MVA. ACS tested up to the 50 day MVA on the high (44.50) and then started to tank. Volume shot higher on the further EDS worries. Even after this drop ACS is still good fore new positions as the target is 38, another $3 from the close. With the high volume and clear shot to the target we like the play.
Volume: 2.667M Avg Volume: 1.531M
BUY POINT: $41.96 Volume=1.8M Target=$38 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: ACS WI - Nov. $45p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acs.html
Play Date: 09/25/2002
RF (Regions Financial--$32.22; -1.88; optionable): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rf.html
STATUS: Put. Very much like ACS, RF tested the 50 day MVA and then tanked on some very heavy volume. It is also just below the original buy point. There is some support at 31.50, but the selling volume is intense as the financials come under one more round of pressure.
Volume: 1.15M Avg Volume: 669.454K
BUY POINT: New positions: From here. (current at 32.45 and orig. $32.95). Volume=650K Target=$30 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: RF MG - Nov. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rf.html
UBS (UBS Warburg--$41.26; -0.95; optionable): Bank
Play Date: 09/28/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ubs.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to the 18 day MVA, testing it again on the Wednesday high (42.24), but unable to hold the move. Volume backed off as it showed a doji, and that can indicate it is ready to fall at this resistance.
Volume: 161.3K Avg Volume: 183.5K
BUY POINT: New positions: 40.89; (orig. $41.15). Volume=225K Target=$37.75 Stop=$43.15
POSITION: UBS WI - Nov. $45p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ubs.html
VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals--$18.25; -1.31; optionable): Drug manufacturer
Play Date: 09/30/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrtx.html
STATUS: Put. VRTX made one more test of 20 and then rolled over Wednesday. It came close to the target entry point below 18 (support at that point), but volume was not really heavy enough to push it below that level. We will see if it comes Thursday. Delta is good and option prices make this workable.
Volume: 744.69K Avg Volume: 825.681K
BUY POINT: $17.96 Volume=900K Target=$15.75 Stop=$19.45
POSITION: VQR WD - Nov. $20p (-61.6 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrtx.html
WFC (Wells Fargo--$47.8; -1.01; optionable): Big bank
Play Date: 09/30/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfc.html
STATUS: Put. WFC started down Wednesday with the financials after testing the 200 day MVA (48.88) Tuesday. Volume was lower but still above average. Looking for more downside from here to the September lows. Still easily in the buy range as it resumes its downtrend.
Volume: 6.081M Avg Volume: 5.776M
BUY POINT: New positions from here (orig. $47.98) Volume=5.5M Target=$45.75 Stop=$49.03
POSITION: WFC MJ - Jan. $50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfc.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABFS 09/24 BO 28.88 -0.11 29.18 33.45 291K 421K 27.14
Current. Looks ready for the next move.
ACS 09/28 Put 41.06 -3.5 42.45 38 2.7M 1.8M 43.35
Current. Dropping hard.
AMGN 09/28 Put 44.75 +0.19 41.96 39 19M 15M 43
Current. Going the wrong way, but showed a doji after trying to mov up on lower volume.
AMLN 09/18 cup hdl 16.21 -0.43 13.55 16.25 867K 750K 12.45
Current. Low volume pullback after the good move up.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 43.29 -1.96 40.65 48 2.9M 3.3M 42
Current. Back to the 10 day MVA on some rising, above average volume. First weakness in awhile and on the heels of the strong Tuesday move.
AXP 09/03 Put 31.2 -1.44 33.18 29.25 4.6M 8.5M 33.55
Current. Falling from the 18 day MVA again though on low volume. Indicative of the milder selling.
BER 10/02 Put 33.19 -1.39 32.88 30.88 194K 190K 34.55
New.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 11.51 +0.29 19.2 19.8 14M 9M 17.25
Curent. Up to test the 10 day MVA.
BSTE 09/30 cup hdl 26.78 +0.94 31.25 35.94 1M 652K 29.06
Buy not hit. Not doing it.
CENT 09/12 BO 17.72 +0.27 16.15 18.15 159K 300K 15.75
Current. Still moving higher on rising volume again.
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 21.19 +0.16 22.41 25.94 300K 365K 20.84
Buy issued. Not pretty.
COCO 09/18 Test 18 37.29 -1.14 38.11 42.75 1M 809K 35.44
Buy not issued. Could not follow through on the move but still in the game.
CTSH 09/14 Test BO 55.28 +0.04 63.32 70 701K 348K 58.89
CTSH 09/05 A Wedge 55.28 +0.04 60.35 67.94 701K 348K 56.75
DIAN 09/28 BO 44.4 -1.66 46.28 50 328K 425K 43.04
Buy not issued. Testing back to the 10 day MVA.
DP 10/02 cup hdl 46.35 -0.74 47.74 54.94 208K 260K 44.4
New.
GLG 09/18 cup hdl 8.8 -0.3 10.59 12.75 796K 1.3M 9.45
Buy not hit. Not doing it.
HD 09/16 Test 50 24.95 -1.43 34.55 38 19M 10M 32.13
Back to the recent lows.
IDXX 09/26 cup hdl 31.34 -0.15 32.11 36.75 240K 468K 29.86
Buy not hit. Looking good.
ITMN 09/28 BO 33.26 -0.73 31.85 36 1.4M 2M 30.05
Current. Lower volume day of rest.
ITRU 09/26 cup hdl 3.1 -0.02 3.35 4.75 206K 550K 2.99
Buy not hit. Nice handle.
KDE 09/25 A Wedge 23.9 -0.53 21.31 25.55 265K 180K 21.55
Current. Took a day of rest after the strong move. SEcpted support at 22.50 to 23.
LH 09/24 Put 33.25 -0.35 33.55 27.75 1.1M 2.5M 35
Buy not hit. Not doing it.
MMSI 09/23 A Wedge 20.04 -0.66 20.5 24.65 320K 150K 18.94
Current. Bounced back Tuesday but turned down some again Wednesday on sharply higher volume. Starting to struggle here.
NTRS 10/02 Put 0 0 37.11 34 0 2M 39
New.
PDCO 09/21 cup hdl 50.78 -0.39 53.21 61.25 325K 557K 49.49
Buy not hit. Good handle.
PFE 09/07 Put 29.99 -0.51 30.55 27 16M 25M 30.25
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA on the high and fell back but still over the 10 day MVA (29.65). Another test of 28 and we are out.
PIXR 08/30 Test BO 45.5 -1.89 50.25 56.55 529K 580K 48.15
Exited.
PL 09/25 Put 30.67 -1.31 30.45 27.45 173K 200K 31.55
Current. Back down on some rising volume, back below the 200 day MVA.
PRX 08/20 cup hdl 26.4 -1.9 28.91 34.65 419K 525K 26.89
Buy not hit. Promising pattern cut short.
RF 09/25 Put 32.22 -1.88 32.95 30 1.2M 650K 33.65
Current. Knifed back lower on some huge volume.
RINO 09/28 A Wedge 14.46 -0.91 15.55 19.45 361K 225K 14
Buy not hit.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 14.46 -0.91 13.8 16.75 361K 300K 14
Current. The set up was nice, but RINO turned sharply lower Wednesday, recovering to hold th e18 day MVA on some strong volume.
ROOM 10/01 Test BO 49.25 -1.14 51.05 55 1.4M 1.2M 47.48
Current. Started the move but returned to the 200 day MVA, showing a big doji on high volume. Not a bad thing but needs to bounce.
STJ 09/21 Put 36.57 +0.03 36.25 32.05 856K 1.9M 37.35
Current. Doji right below the 50 day MVA. Can mean it is ready to fall again.
STT 09/17 Put 37.52 -2.04 39.59 35.75 2.3M 1.5M 40.97
Current. Knifing lower. Near 36 and we take the gain.
SY 09/19 Put 11.61 -0.38 12.75 10 613K 680K 13.55
Buy not issued. Trying to fall, just won't break free.
TCB 09/17 Put 41.67 -1.96 44.65 40.75 491K 375K 44.25
Current. Reversed and is tanking on high volume.
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 68.17 -0.68 68.25 77.85 1.2M 1.2M 66.50
Current. Test back to the 18 day MVA.
TIER 09/04 cup hdl 17.98 -0.99 20.21 23.25 120K 239K 18.65
Exit. Tanking below the 50 day MVA.
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 28.73 -0.11 26.61 31.94 2.6M 1.5M 26.05
Current. Testing the move on lighter though still above average volume.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 28.73 -0.11 24.75 29.85 2.6M 1.5M 26.05
Current.
UBS 09/28 Put 41.26 -0.95 41.15 37.75 161K 225K 42.98
Current. Ready to roll over.
UNT 09/25 Cup 18.99 -0.72 18.31 22 310K 255K 16.95
Current. Turned right back down on continued strong volume. Don't like these immediate reversals.
UTHR 10/01 Test BO 16.3 -0.15 16.79 20.25 123K 310K 15.61
Buy not hit. Looks ready with a doji at the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
VRTX 09/30 Put 18.25 -1.31 17.96 15.75 745K 900K 19.45
Buy not issued. Starting the fall but not a lot of volume.
WEN 09/21 Put 35.76 +1.11 32.75 30 2.3M 1.6M 33.33
Exited.
WFC 09/30 Put 47.8 -1.01 47.98 45.75 6.1M 5.5M 49.03
Current. Falling with the financials on higher volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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