|
|
understanding the stock market, stock trading site
Begin Part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1165.56
Resistance: The August down trendline at 1185 up to 1200 (July intraday low at 1192.42). The 10 day MVA (1202.24). The 18 day MVA (1225.26). 1230 and 1250 are price resistance points. 1270 is still more price resistance from the September lows. The March/May downtrend line at 1275 along with price resistance at 1300. The 50 day MVA (1291.37). 1316, an early August interim high. The late July high (1354.48) and 1357.09, the October 1998 bear market low. There is another downtrend line from the March and May highs at 1357. 1418, the interim test after the September low. That is followed by price resistance at 1500.
Support: 1160 has held twice intraday. There is price support from 1080 to 1100. Then there is a big shelf of support at 1050 down to 1000.
S&P 500: Closed at 818.95
Resistance: The 10 day MVA (837.37). 850 to 855 (the October 1997 and Q2 1998 lows) stopped things Friday. The 18 day MVA (851.30). The March downtrend line at 857. 875 is price resistance of some significance. The 50 day MVA (887.55). July and August interim highs at 911.64. The September 2000/May 2001 downtrend line at 918. The downtrend lines from the March and April highs (926). Price resistance at 950. 965, the September 2001 closing low.
Support: The first bottom channel line in the March downtrend (816). Price support at 800 held Monday. The lowest channel line in the March downtrend channel (776). Then the July intraday low at 775.68 and marks the culmination of the short head and shoulders pattern. 750 to 760 with an intraday touch to 730.
Dow: Closed at 7717.19
Resistance: The lowest bottom channel line of the March downtrend (7755). The 10 day MVA (7851.61). The 18 day MVA (7994.73). The August lows (8043) and the September 2001 intraday low (8062). The September closing low at 8235.81. 8250 acted as resistance before after acting as support. The March down trendline at 8235. The 50 day MVA (8367.24). Some price resistance at 8500. The late July interim high at 8762.14 (8745 closing). A range of resistance from 9000 on up to 9050. Then 9250 and then 9500.
Support: The July low (7532.66). The October 1998 lows are at 7400 and 7467. After that is 7000, at some 1997 lows and highs.
Economic Calendar
9-30-02
Personal income, August (8:30): 0.3% actual, 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior.
Personal spending, August (8:30): 0.4% actual, 0.5% expected, 1.0% prior.
Chicago PMI, September (10:00): 48.1 actual, 53.0 expected, 54.9 prior.
10-01-02
Auto sales, September: 6.1M expected, 6.6M pior.
Truck sales, September: 7.8M exepcted, 8.8M prior.
ISM index, September (10:00): 49.50 actual, 51.0 expected, 50.5 prior.
Construction spending, August (10:00): -0.4% actual, -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior.
10-03-02
Initial claims (8:30): 417K actual, 410K expected, 412K prior (revised from 406K).
ISM Services, September (10:00): 53.9 actual, 51.4 expected, 50.9 prior.
Factory orders, August (10:00): 0.0% actual, -0.3% expected, 4.7% prior (revised from 4.4%).
10-04-02
Nonfarm payrolls, September (8:30): 6K expected, 39K prior.
Unemployment Rate, September (8:30): 5.9% expected, 5.7% prior.
Average workweek, September (8:30): 34.1 expected, 34.1 prior.
Hourly earnings, September (8:30): 0.3% expected, o.3% prior.
ONLINE SEMINARS LIVE OR NOW ON CD!!
To take advantage of market direction and trends, to underdstand why the market moves as it doess, and knowing how to turn up or down cycles to your money making advantage, you need to have the knowledge of what to do and the confidence to do it. Our seminars take you step by step through what drives the market up and down, how to recognize when change is occurring and when you should act, and how you to invest to take advantage of that knowledge. We don't really care which way the market goes, we just want to be able to recognize it and then take advantage of it with stocks, options, or both. Our seminar series shows how to put practical understanding of the stock market to use to make monthly income and build (rebuild) retirements and college funds. There is an incredible wealth of knowledge, years of experience, and 'how to' plans of action in these seminars. As one graduate put it, "I had no idea how little I knew about market direction and the reasons behind it until I took your course." Our graduates over the past year and one-half have made the bear market in stocks their own private second bull market because they learned how to and when to enter the downside and make dramatic profit from what most investors dread. Have the knowledge to take advantage of any kind of market as well as the confidence to act when you see the action unfold. We cover it all from trends, to accumulation/distribution, patterns, stocks, buying and selling options naked, covered, or creating spreads. Go to
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
and look for the link to the CD seminars or the next live series dates where you can learn and ask questions from the comfort of your home without having to incurr costly travel expenses and time away from work, costs and time that very few can deduct from their taxes . This is Jon Johnson's internet site for online seminars and they get you up to speed on how to deal with up or down markets. Hope you check it out.
THE PLAYS:
ABFS: super move.
NEW PLAYS
Upside:
RGIS (Regis Corp.--$28.1; -0.33; optionable): Personal services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rgis.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RGIS is in the 3-week handle of its 5-month base. It tried to make a move up out of the handle Tuesday in that rally; in fact it did make the move as volume was at breakout levels with the price move. The past two sessions with overall market selling, however, have pushed it back down to the 10 day MVA just below 28. Volume backed off, however, and it is holding above the 27 to 28 trading range that marked the handle. This is good action, and if there is any rally, RGIS will be ready to move up again. Accumulation is excellent at 5 up weeks on rising volume to just 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 354.86K Avg Volume: 353.136K
BUY POINT: $28.84 Volume=525K Target=$33 Stop=$26.82
POSITION: RJQ CE - Mar. $25c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rgis.html
TREE (Lendingtree--$15.30; 0.00; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tree.html
STATUS: Taking another look at this one. TREE formed a nice cup with handle pattern through August and September, but then dropped hard three weeks back, testing and holding the 50 day MVA. It has now recovered and moved back up just below its prior high at 16. Volume the last two sessions has rallied higher as the stock testes the breakout. Accumulation is positive at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent. Looking for a breakout but need to see the very strong volume on the move.
Volume: 688.442K Avg Volume: 323.136K
BUY POINT: $16.35 Volume=433K Target=$19.62 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: QQP LV - Dec. $12.50c (75 delta) or QQP CV - Mar. $12.50c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tree.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$18.01; +0.29; optionable): Wholesale industrial equipment
Play Date: 09/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving up right to a new high on rising, above average volume. May try to form another handle at this level, but on a strong volume break over the new buy point we will add to positions.
Volume: 175.992K Avg Volume: 127.227K
BUY POINT: New positions: 18.25. (orig. 16.95 and $16.15) Volume=300K Target=$18.15 Stop=$15.75
POSITION: EQH KV - Nov. $12.50c (82 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
DP (Diagnostic Products--$47.16; +0.81; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looks solid, ready to make the breakout of its 4.5 month base. Accumulation is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding as DP has been a recent leader as it builds the right side of its base.
Volume: 234.7K Avg Volume: 171.5K
BUY POINT: $47.74 Volume=260K Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.4
POSITION: DP CI - Mar. $45c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dp.html
Play Date: 09/26/2002
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$31.69; +0.35; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looks to be making the move, tapping 32 on the high and then backing off a bit on rising, above average volume. Looks very good.
Volume: 296.124K Avg Volume: 284.909K
BUY POINT: $32.11 Volume=468K Target=$36.75 Stop=$29.86
POSITION: IQX LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxx.html
Play Date: 09/26/2002
ITRU (Intertrust Technologies--$3.1; 0; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itru.html
STATUS: Cup. Now has that very nice handle, moving up off the 18 day MVA (3) on the open to close over the 10 day. Volume was lower again. Looks very good. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume.
Volume: 153.841K Avg Volume: 366.227K
BUY POINT: $3.35 Volume=550K Target=$4.75 Stop=$2.99
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itru.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABFS 09/24 BO 30.53 +1.65 30.1 34.45 743K 421K 27.75
ACS 09/28 Put 39.22 -1.84 42.45 38 2.5M 1.8M 43.35
AMGN 09/28 Put 45.75 +1 41.96 39 15M 15M 43
AMLN 09/18 cup hdl 16.44 +0.23 13.55 16.25 895K 750K 12.45
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 42.78 -0.51 40.65 48 1.9M 3.3M 42
AXP 09/03 Put 29.96 -1.24 33.18 29.25 6.4M 8.5M 33.55
BER 10/02 Put 32.7 -0.49 32.88 30.88 108K 190K 34.55
BRCM 08/17 Test 50 10.18 -1.33 19.2 19.8 14M 9M 17.25
BSTE 09/30 cup hdl 27.16 +0.38 31.25 35.94 553K 652K 29.06
CENT 09/12 BO 18.01 +0.29 16.15 18.15 176K 300K 15.75
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 20.85 -0.34 22.41 25.94 393K 365K 20.84
COCO 09/18 Test 18 35.9 -1.39 38.11 42.75 640K 809K 35.44
CTSH 09/14 Test BO 55.05 -0.23 63.32 70 494K 348K 58.89
CTSH 09/05 A Wedge 55.05 -0.23 60.35 67.94 494K 348K 56.75
DIAN 09/28 BO 45.84 +1.44 46.28 50 161K 425K 43.04
DP 10/02 cup hdl 47.16 +0.81 47.74 54.94 235K 260K 44.4
HD 09/16 Test 50 24.96 +0.01 34.55 38 18M 10M 32.13
IDXX 09/26 cup hdl 31.69 +0.35 32.11 36.75 296K 468K 29.86
ITMN 09/28 BO 31.88 -1.38 31.85 36 1.5M 2M 30.05
ITRU 09/26 cup hdl 3.1 0 3.35 4.75 154K 550K 2.99
KDE 09/25 A Wedge 24.13 +0.23 21.31 25.55 191K 180K 21.55
MMSI 09/23 A Wedge 20.9 +0.86 20.5 24.65 338K 150K 18.94
NTRS 10/02 Put 33.74 -3.76 37.11 34 4.8M 2M 39
PDCO 09/21 cup hdl 51.5 +0.72 53.21 61.25 208K 557K 49.49
PFE 09/07 Put 29.64 -0.35 30.55 27 16M 25M 30.25
PL 09/25 Put 29.75 -0.92 30.45 27.45 285K 200K 31.55
RF 09/25 Put 30.2 -2.02 32.95 30 1.5M 650K 33.65
RGIS 10/03 cup hdl 28.1 -0.33 28.84 33 355K 525K 26.82
RINO 09/28 A Wedge 14.51 +0.04 15.55 19.45 439K 225K 14
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 14.51 +0.04 13.8 16.75 439K 300K 14
ROOM 10/01 Test BO 49.2 -0.05 51.05 55 796K 1.2M 47.48
STJ 09/21 Put 35.73 -0.84 36.25 32.05 1.4M 1.9M 37.35
STT 09/17 Put 35.12 -2.4 39.59 35.75 4.1M 1.5M 40.97
SY 09/19 Put 11.4 -0.21 12.75 10 372K 680K 13.55
TCB 09/17 Put 39.28 -2.39 44.65 40.75 646K 375K 44.25
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 68.07 -0.1 68.25 77.85 577K 1.2M 66.50
TIER 09/04 cup hdl 16.9 -1.08 20.21 23.25 367K 239K 18.65
TREE 10/03 cup hdl 15.3 0 16.35 19.62 688K 433K 14.85
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 29.48 +0.75 26.61 31.94 2.2M 1.5M 26.05
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 29.48 +0.75 24.75 29.85 2.2M 1.5M 26.05
UBS 09/28 Put 40.29 -0.97 41.15 37.75 137K 225K 42.98
UNT 09/25 Cup 19 +0.01 18.31 22 182K 255K 16.95
UTHR 10/01 Test BO 16.26 -0.04 16.79 20.25 81K 310K 15.61
VRTX 09/30 Put 18.18 -0.07 17.96 15.75 703K 900K 19.45
WFC 09/30 Put 46.17 -1.63 47.98 45.75 9.1M 5.5M 49.03
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
understanding the stock market
stock trading site
|
