|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) STN: Great accumulation, great pattern.
2) ZMH: Nice ascending triangle.
3) LNY: Falling hard.
4) STJ: Renewed the fall.
5) IDXX: Holdign up very well.
6) ITRU: Still a great handle.
7) UTHR: Very nice.
8) VRTX: Starting the fall; needs a bit of volume.
NEW PLAYS
Upside:
BG (Bunge Ltd.--$24.24; -0.51; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BG broke out from a 10-month cup pattern in late August and appears to be starting the test of that breakout. We have been watching it and looking for a point to get in. Friday BG hit a new high and fell back to some minor support at 24. We think it will continue to pull back and form the handle it never really formed. Watching for it to test back to the 10 or 18 day MVA (23.63; 22.94 respectively) on some lower volume. When it starts back up is when we move in. Accumulation is excellent at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 742.9K Avg Volume: 228.929K
BUY POINT: $24.25 Volume=400K Target=$28.55 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: BG DX - April $22.50c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bg.html
MTEC (Meridian Medical Tech--$35.54; +0.13; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MTEC is starting to form the handle to a 5.5 month base. Note how the market sold back hard price-wise the last three sessions yet MTEC held its ground, not giving up its recent gains as volume trailed well below average. This is what we talk about when we say the strong stocks hold their ground as the rest of the market sells and then make strong moves when the market next rallies. The market can always take down everything if it totally tanks, but that is why we wait and see if they make the breakout first. Accumulation is solid at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume and money flow is racing up ahead of the price as it forms this lateral handle. This is a solid sector and MTEC is one of the top stocks in the sector.
Volume: 39.8K Avg Volume: 95.512K
BUY POINT: $37.87 Volume=175K Target=$45.45 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtec.html
STN (Station Casinos--$16.92; -0.23; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another stock holding onto its recent gains as the market sold last week. STN is in the handle of a 5-month base. Volume surged as STN ran up and formed the right side of its base in September, and now it has backed off the past two weeks as it has moved laterally and slightly lower as the 10 day MVA (16.64) comes up to meet it. Accumulation is excellent at 5 up weeks on rising volume to just 1 down week on rising volume. Outstanding base; we will now see if it can make the breakout for us.
Volume: 351.1K Avg Volume: 396.501K
BUY POINT: $17.62 Volume=600K Target=$12.45 Stop=$16.39
POSITION: STN DC - April $15c (86 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stn.html
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$38.38; -0.54; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Another medical appliances stock performing well. ZMH is in a 2-month base showing positive accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to just 1 down week on rising volume. The stock is just 15-months old, and a breakout will send it to a new high. We like these ascending wedges/triangles in stocks that are moving up as they build pressure from the downside with the series of rising lows pushing against a constant top. The breakouts are often explosive when they come.
Volume: 925.4K Avg Volume: 1.172M
BUY POINT: $39.68 Volume=1.8M Target=$47.55 Stop=$36.9
POSITION: ZMH LG - Dec. $35c (89 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zmh.html
Downside:
LNY (Landrys Restaurants--$20.3; -1.15; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lny.html
STATUS: Put. After trying to recover on hopes of continued strong consumer, restaurants are now heading back down. LNY started back down last week and picked up speed Friday on rising, above average volume. Lots of downside momentum here but it may try to test higher after the big downdraft Friday. If it continues down from here we will not hesitate to move in, however, as it has a lot of downside momentum and can make the target in short order. If it tests 21 and fails we will move in at that point as well.
Volume: 193K Avg Volume: 195.914K
BUY POINT: $20.2 Volume=190K Target=$18 Stop=$21.45
POSITION: LNY MX - Jan. $22.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lny.html
RE (Everest Re Group--$53.55; -1.11; optionable): Accident and health insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/re.html
STATUS: Put. RE has been moving in a range for the past 1.5 months. Friday it moved sharply below the 50 day MVA (54.94) on above average volume after volume selling on Wednesday. Insurance is under pressure and Congress obviously did not heed the President's request to get a terrorism bill passed Friday.
Volume: 562.3K Avg Volume: 557.756K
BUY POINT: $53.35 Volume=550K Target=$50 Stop=$55
POSITION: RE WK - Nov. $55p (-55 delta, no OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/re.html
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$35.2; -0.53; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Put. STJ was giving us some jitters as Wednesday and Thursday it tried to clear the 50 day MVA (36.82) intraday. Friday it did not even try, rolling lower on a good surge in above average volume after it reversed its field to close lower Thursday. This looks like the start of another drop toward the July lows and a good point to enter new positions or add to existing.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 1.285M
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$32 Stop=$36.35
POSITION: STJ MU - Jan. $37.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/24/2002
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$29.61; -0.92; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. Following its breakout move Thursday ABFS had to come back a bit with the market Friday, but it did so on lower volume, holding its breakout. We look for ABFS to test the 10 day MVA (29.06) or slightly lower and then continue the move up.
Volume: 591.29K Avg Volume: 315.488K
BUY POINT: New positions: After a test of 29, 29.25 (orig. $29.18). Volume=421K Target=$33.45 Stop=$27.14
POSITION: FDQ LE - Dec. $25c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abfs.html
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$17.95; -0.06; optionable): Wholesale industrial equipment
Play Date: 09/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CENT continues to move higher on decent volume if not great volume. Its breakout was never on huge volume, but it has continued its move. It is now at the pre-correction high at 18 that started the current 3.5 month base. Given the volume on the move up, we anticipate it will test back toward 17 (right at the 10 day MVA) and then continue the move back up. That is where we can look for new positions as well as a break over 18 on strong volume.
Volume: 81.77K Avg Volume: 129.33K
BUY POINT: New positions: After a test of 17. Breakout: 18.25. (orig. 16.95 and $16.15) Volume=300K Target=$18.15 Stop=$15.75
POSITION: EQH KV - Nov. $12.50c (82 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
DP (Diagnostic Products--$45.97; -1.19; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle of the 4.5 month base after a breakout over the 200 day MVA at 41.75. This is good action. Friday it tested close to the 10 day MVA on the low (45.53) as volume remained solidly above average. We look for another day or so of lateral to slightly lower consolidation and then another move higher. That will be our cue. Accumulation is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding as DP has been a recent leader as it builds the right side of its base.
Volume: 242.1K Avg Volume: 176.147K
BUY POINT: $47.74 Volume=260K Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.4
POSITION: DP CI - Mar. $45c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dp.html
Play Date: 09/26/2002
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$31.48; -0.21; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IDXX tried to rally Thursday, but the Friday selling stall it. Not much, however, as it again tested the 10 day MVA on the low (31.10) and showed a very tight doji above that level as volume backed off. The stock is holding up very, very well in this market. Excellent accumulation at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Money flow is ahead of the price, and relative strength is ahead of where it was at the May high.
Volume: 188.73K Avg Volume: 288.504K
BUY POINT: $32.11 Volume=468K Target=$36.75 Stop=$29.86
POSITION: IQX LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxx.html
Play Date: 09/26/2002
ITRU (Intertrust Technologies--$2.99; -0.11; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itru.html
STATUS: Cup. Still forming that very nice handle though volume was up some Friday as the stock came back to the 18 day MVA to close. Still holding up above the late August high, the perfect place to start the move back up to complete the handle and the base. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Looks ready.
Volume: 340.4K Avg Volume: 368.263K
BUY POINT: $3.35 Volume=550K Target=$4.75 Stop=$2.99
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itru.html
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$50.49; -1.01; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
Play Date: 09/21/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Got rocky Friday as PDCO tested the 50 day MVA on the low (49.96) but shot right back up. Volume edged higher but was still well below average. Don't like to see a stock get jumpy in the handle, so we need to see PDCO make the breakout move and hold it toward the close of the session it does make the move so we know if it really looks good.
Volume: 253.19K Avg Volume: 386.191K
BUY POINT: $53.21 Volume=557K Target=$61.25 Stop=$49.49
POSITION: DOU AJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) or DOU AI - Dec. $45c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdco.html
Play Date: 10/01/2002
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$16.14; -0.12; no options): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: UTHR continues to move laterally in the consolidation after the breakout of its 3-month cup w/handle pattern. It is holding near the 18 day MVA (15.98), showing a doji Friday as volume continued to dry up to a virtual volume desert. It looks ready to make its next move up with great accumulation at 6 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks.
Volume: 80.566K Avg Volume: 203.212K
BUY POINT: $16.79 Volume=310K Target=$20.25 Stop=$15.61
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Downside:
BER (W.R. Berkley--$32.66; -0.04; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Put. Friday BER hit the downside target but it was not showing rampant weakness that many stocks were showing in the very weak market. We held off and at the end of the session BER was down a few pennies, showing a doji on slightly higher volume. Not giving up on it. ON a test back up to 33 and a failure there we will look at another move lower to enter. The options have a good price to delta and can provide a nice return on a quick duck lower.
Volume: 120.4K Avg Volume: 176.249K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=190K Target=$30.88 Stop=$34.55
POSITION: BER WG - Nov. $35p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ber.html
VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals--$17.38; -0.8; optionable): Drug manufacturer
Play Date: 09/30/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrtx.html
STATUS: Put. VRTX tried the 50 day MVA on the high Friday (18.94) and then rolled down. Volume was very light, however, and with the market having already sold heavily we were reluctant to enter on such low volume. Looking for a test up to 18 and then a rollover. At that point we enter. Delta is good and option prices make this workable.
Volume: 744.69K Avg Volume: 825.681K
BUY POINT: On a test of 18 that fails, $17.96. Volume=900K Target=$15.75 Stop=$19.45
POSITION: VQR WD - Nov. $20p (-61.6 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrtx.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABFS 09/24 BO 29.61 -0.92 30.1 34.45 591K 421K 27.75
Current. Testing back on lower volume after the breakout move.
ACS 09/28 Put 38.15 -1.07 42.45 38 2.1M 1.8M 43.35
Hit the target.
AMGN 09/28 Put 43.66 -2.09 41.96 39 19M 15M 43
Current. Rolled down Friday, back below the 50 day MVA on rising, above average volume.
AMLN 09/18 cup hdl 15.8 -0.64 13.55 16.25 1.1M 750K 14.45
Current. Testing back to the 10 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Still decent.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 40.55 -2.23 40.65 48 5M 3.3M 42
Current. Gapped through the stop point and closed just below the 50 day MVA on the DV news. Will see if it can rally up toward the short term MVA at 43. If it does and cannot recover, we exit.
BER 10/02 Put 32.66 -0.04 32.88 30.88 120K 190K 34.55
Buy not issued. One more test up and fall and we enter.
BG 10/05 Test BO 24.24 -0.51 24.25 28.55 743K 400K 22.55
New.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 10.1 -0.07 19.2 19.8 11M 9M 17.25
Current. Riding down the 10 day MVA. 10 is an important level for a stock. Want to see it hold here.
CENT 09/12 BO 17.95 -0.06 16.15 18.15 82K 300K 16.45
Current. At resistance at 18. May test back before moving higher.
COCO 09/18 Test 18 32.21 -3.69 38.11 42.75 3.6M 809K 35.44
Current. Gapped to the 50 day MVA and sold off. Not good and we will see if can mount a relief move back up to test the 50 day. That is an exit point.
DP 10/02 cup hdl 45.97 -1.19 47.74 54.94 242K 260K 44.4
Buy not hit. Forming a handle above the 10 day MVA.
HD 09/16 Test 50 25.8 +0.84 34.55 38 20M 10M 32.13
Trying to set a bottom at 24.50 as it continues to test that level on the intraday lows on higher and higher volume.
IDXX 09/26 cup hdl 31.48 -0.21 32.11 36.75 189K 468K 29.86
Buy not issued. Looks very solid.
ITMN 09/28 BO 31 -0.88 31.85 36 1.3M 2M 29.95
Current. Testing back on lower volume. 30 looks like the point it will hold.
ITRU 09/26 cup hdl 2.99 -0.11 3.35 4.75 340K 550K 2.99
Buy not hit. Very nice.
KDE 09/25 A Wedge 23.77 -0.36 21.31 25.55 225K 180K 22.85
Current. Testing back gently.
LNY 10/05 Put 20.3 -1.15 20.2 18 193K 190K 21.45
New.
MMSI 09/23 A Wedge 21.42 +0.52 20.5 24.65 536K 150K 19.65
Current. Running higher on some tremendous volume. Hit the upper channel line on the intraday high (22.17) and fell back. Still very strong.
MTEC 10/05 cup hdl 35.54 +0.13 37.87 45.45 40K 175K 34.77
New.
NTRS 10/02 Put 31.81 -1.93 37.11 34 4.5M 2M 33
Plunging further on high volume.
PDCO 09/21 cup hdl 50.49 -1.01 53.21 61.25 253K 557K 49.49
Buy not hit. Getting a bit wild in the handle.
PFE 09/07 Put 28.55 -1.09 30.55 27 18M 25M 29.12
Current. Falling on rising, average volume.
PL 09/25 Put 28.9 -0.85 30.45 27.45 184K 200K 30.25
Current. Continuing its plunge lower. Volume backed off to average after a big surge on Thursday's selling.
RE 10/05 Put 53.55 -1.11 53.35 50 562K 550K 55
New.
RGIS 10/03 cup hdl 27.67 -0.43 28.84 33 355K 525K 26.82
Buy not hit. Testing the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume.
RINO 09/28 A Wedge 14.12 -0.39 15.55 19.45 135K 225K 14
Buy not hit.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 14.12 -0.39 13.8 16.75 135K 300K 14
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA on the low Thursday in a wild day and then held Friday with a doji at 14.
ROOM 10/01 Test BO 46.81 -2.39 51.05 55 662K 1.2M 47.48
Current. No bounce as ROOM broke the 200 day MVA on lower volume Friday. Looking for a test of 50 to exit.
STJ 10/05 Put 35.2 -0.53 35.05 32 1.5M 1.3M 36.35
New buy point.
STJ 09/21 Put 35.2 -0.53 36.25 32.05 1.5M 1.9M 37.35
Falling on very strong volume.
STN 10/05 cup hdl 16.92 -0.23 17.62 12.45 351K 600K 16.39
New.
SY 09/19 Put 11.05 -0.35 12.75 10 418K 680K 13.55
Falling on continued below average volume.
TEVA 08/12 DB hdl 67.26 -0.81 68.25 77.85 499K 1.2M 66.50
Current. Tested lower toward the 50 day MVA Friday on below average volume.
TREE 10/03 cup hdl 13.76 -1.54 16.35 19.62 457K 433K 14.85
Buy not hit. Tanked Friday.
TTWO 08/24 cup hdl 27.95 -1.53 26.61 31.94 3M 1.5M 27.25
Current. Fell back to the 10 day MVA Friday on a jump in volume. Need to be careful here. Moved up stop.
TTWO 08/17 cup hdl 27.95 -1.53 24.75 29.85 3M 1.5M 27.25
Current.
UBS 09/28 Put 37.68 -2.61 41.15 37.75 361K 225K 42.98
Hit the target.
UNT 09/25 Cup 18.62 -0.38 18.31 22 140K 255K 17.95
Current. Forming up a nice handle, dropping to the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
UTHR 10/01 Test BO 16.14 -0.12 16.79 20.25 81K 310K 15.61
Buy not hit. Forming a lateral consolidation on very low volume.
VRTX 09/30 Put 17.38 -0.8 17.96 15.75 492K 900K 19.45
Buy not issued. Looking for a chance to get in this week on a test back up.
ZMH 10/05 A Wedge 38.38 -0.54 39.68 47.55 925K 1.8M 36.9
New.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
