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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW BONUS PLAYS:
Upside:
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$40.47; -0.38; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. After peaking near 55 in December, NBIX has corrected in a 10-month base, forming the current pattern the last 7 months. It is currently testing back to the 18 day MVA (40.16) on lower volume, showing a doji Tuesday. Accumulation is solid at 11 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is racing ahead of the price even as it pulls back here for one more test before it breaks higher.
Volume: 543.696K Avg Volume: 703.818K
BUY POINT: $42.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$50.75 Stop=$39.39
POSITION: UOT BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbix.html
Downside:
FAF (First American--$19.84; +0.53; optionable): Surety & title insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/faf.html
STATUS: Put. FAF broke below the 200 and 50 day MVA (20.43) in late September, recovered and tanked again this past week. It is now making another move up toward the 50 day MVA, and we are going to watch for the stock to fail at that point along with the rest of the market if the short term moving averages stall a relief rally again. The play is to let it hit up to 20.50 or so and then reverse and start the fall again.
Volume: 337.5K Avg Volume: 305.818K
BUY POINT: After a test of 20 to 20.55, $19.55. Volume=350K Target=$17 Stop=$20.85
POSITION: FAF MX - Jan. $22.50p (-72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/faf.html
ZQK (Quicksilver--$21.08; +0.98; optionable): Younger fashions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zqk.html
STATUS: Put. ZQK blasted through its 200 day MVA (21.83) early in the month and is now rallying back up on declining volume. Tuesday it tapped at the 200 day on the high and gave much of the move back. We are looking for it to try another time, snugging up closer to that level before rolling back down. Aggressive can play right off of a test and then move below 21.50.
Volume: 375.6K Avg Volume: 356.636K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 21.45 after a move to test 21.83. Breakdown: $20.95 Volume=380K Target=$18 Stop=$22.15
POSITION: ZQK WE - Nov. $25p (-68 delta) or ZQK NE - Feb. $25p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zqk.html
CONTINUING BONUS PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 09/19/2002
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$16.41; +0.66; no options): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working through the handle of 6-month base showing excellent accumulation at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Very nice handle on below average volume for the last week. Waiting patiently for the breakout.
Volume: 93.678K Avg Volume: 153.227K
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=225K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appx.html
CHD (Church & Dwight--$33.49; +0.43; no options): Consumer cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through the handle of its 5-month base, rising off the 10 day MVA (33) Tuesday but not with rising volume. Still not the breakout and we wait patiently until it makes the move. Solid accumulation at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 144.3K Avg Volume: 150.5K
BUY POINT: $34.35 Volume=225K Target=$39.75 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chd.html
Play Date: 10/07/2002
STE (Steris--$26.00; +1.50; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Breakout. STE is making the next move we were looking for, jumping ahead Tuesday on continued rising, above average volume. Very good accumulation, very nice move. Still a buy at this point.
Volume: 803.8K Avg Volume: 471.136K
BUY POINT: New positions: 26.10 (orig. $25.24) Volume=711K Target=$28.75 Stop=$23.35
POSITION: STE LD - Dec. $20c (78 delta) or STE CD - Mar. $20c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ste.html
Play Date: 10/01/2002
UHS (Universal Health Services--$51.3; -0.25; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uhs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still on the 10 day MVA (50.86), forming the handle as volume backs off. It is right at the pre-correction high (52) and we are waiting for a high volume breakout that holds toward the close.
Volume: 576.1K Avg Volume: 572.59K
BUY POINT: $51.79 Volume=800K Target=$58.25 Stop=$49.35
POSITION: UHS AJ - Jan. $50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uhs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
HET (Harrahs Entertainment--$48.7; +1.21; optionable): Casinos, resorts. Forecast to announce a split on 10-22-02 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/het.html
BACKGROUND: HET last announce a split in 1993. It split twice that year, 2:1 and then 3:2. Price was near $45 when those splits were announced.
STATUS: Cup. After a rough session Monday where HET sold to the 50 day MVA on low volume, HET jumped back off that level Tuesday on a surge in above average volume. A very nice recovery, what you would expect from a strong stock. Positive accumulation at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume. It still may move laterally some more to continue the handle formation.
Volume: 1.802M Avg Volume: 1.241M
BUY POINT: $50.70 Volume=1.8M Target=$58.75 Stop=$47.45
POSITION: HET BI - Feb. $45c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/het.html
IGT (International Game Technology--$68.1; +2.86; optionable): Gaming electronics. Forecast to announce a split 10-23-02 in conjunction with earnings (company has not confirmed this date).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: IGT has never announced a stock split, but the gaming sector is performing well and the stock is near an all-time high, a leader in the market.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IGT suffered the selling as well late last week and Monday but on lower and lower volume. Then after tapping near the 50 day MVA (64.65) on the low, IGT charged back up Tuesday on rising, above average volume. Looking for the breakout on strong volume from a market leader. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 8 down weeks on rising volume; all it takes is positive accumulation.
Volume: 1.088M Avg Volume: 974.818K
BUY POINT: $70.95 Volume=1.2M Target=$80 Stop=$66.45
POSITION: IGT DN - April $70c (51 delta) or IGT AM - Jan $65c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
MME (Mid-Atlantic Medical--$36.79; +0.07; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split 11-6-02 after the close.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mme.html
BACKGROUND: MME has announced two prior splits in 1993 and 1994 at $35 and $40. For the first time since that time the stock is back at those price levels.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After the attempted breakout move, MME has pulled back to the 18 d
(36.33) on much lower, below average volume. Still holding very well in its pattern with solid accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to just 1 down week on rising volume. We need to see some once again strong volume on the next move that breaks it out. A move over the June highs near 40 puts MME at an all-time high.
Volume: 318.3K Avg Volume: 509K
BUY POINT: $38.28 Volume=650K Target=$44 Stop=$35.6
POSITION: MME CF - Mar. $30 c (77 delta, low OI) OR MME CG - Mar. $35c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mme.html
CONTINUING CANDIDATES
Play Date: 08/24/2002
AZO (Autozone--$80.19; -0.88; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to the 5.5 month base, testing lower intraday as it should, but showing a bit more volume than we want the past two sessions as it rose to above average levels. Tuesday it touched the 18 day MVA on the low (78.26) and rebounded to close just over the 10 day MVA. That is actually very good action and we look for the breakout from this handle.
Volume: 1.859M Avg Volume: 1.276M
BUY POINT: New positions: 82.05 (orig. $75.69) Volume=1.5M Target=New positions: 92 (orig. positions $82.55) Stop=$77.45
POSITION: AZO LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/azo.html
Play Date: 10/03/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$52.65; +0.85; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. HSIC continues to test the 50 day MVA the past four sessions as it tests the move up to 55 in September. The past three sessions have been on lower volume and then Tuesday it was up off the 50 day MVA (51.01) on rising volume. Looks as if it is getting ready to make its move soon as the pattern is forming up better now. Still need to see the breakout on that strong volume.
Volume: 405.196K Avg Volume: 425.227K
BUY POINT: $54.45 Volume=550K Target=$59.85 Stop=$52.05
POSITION: HQE AI - Jan. $45c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
POST-SPLIT
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$36.34; +0.49; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Put. Another test of the 50 day MVA on the high (36.80) and then a drop back later in the session as the rest of the market pulled back. Volume was higher on the slight gain, rising to above average, so we want to see it roll over on continued strong volume. We expect it to make another attempt at the 50 day MVA as the market tries to move higher and test the short term moving averages once more.
Volume: 1.081M Avg Volume: 1.241M
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$32 Stop=$36.35
POSITION: STJ MU - Jan. $37.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
XRAY (Dentsply--$42.03; +0.48; optionable): Dental supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Cup. XRAY is very close to busting free. Monday when the market sold XRAY held its ground on very, very low volume. Tuesday it started up on very strong, above average volume. It is showing solid accumulation at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. This is a base sitting right on top of the base it broke out of in August after the trend lower from April that culminated in the July sell off. It still may form a short handle here, but the heavy volume indicates it wants to breakout.
Volume: 945.094K Avg Volume: 633.954K
BUY POINT: $42.28 Volume=900K Target=$48.75 Stop=$39.32
POSITION: XEQ DH - April $40c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
End Part 2 of 3
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stock watch
stock split
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