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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: KDE
NEW BONUS PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money.
Upside:
COH (Coach--$29.4; -0.02; optionable): Apparel, handbags
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. COH has formed a new cup with handle over the past 7-weeks. Though a bit V-shaped, accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks. It reported some excellent earnings, a 70% increase. This is the kind of leadership-caliber earnings you like to see. A breakout puts the stock at an all-time high.
Volume: 1.966M Avg Volume: 1.012M
BUY POINT: $30.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$36.35 Stop=$28.13
POSITION: COH BY - Feb. $27.50c (65 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Downside: Given the follow through session, downside plays are somewhat more aggressive at this time though there are some stocks that continue to struggle.
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$452.59; -3.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Aggressive put. We are anticipating a test of the 50 day MVA (438.50) on this consolidation. That makes this a fairly tight play but it can produce a nice return, and if the 50 day MVA does not hold, it can provide more.
Volume: 10.412M Avg Volume: 0
BUY POINT: $451.35 Volume=1.5M Target=$438 Stop=$454
POSITION: OXB WK - Nov. $455p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/$oex.html
MGG (MGM Mirage--$33.41; -1.09; optionable): Resorts, casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgg.html
STATUS: Put. Broke the 200 day MVA (34.97), rallied up to it, and after a lateral move is starting back down on some rising volume. Want it to clear the recent intraday lows around 33 on continued above average volume.
Volume: 1.236M Avg Volume: 1.159M
BUY POINT: $32.91 Volume=1.2M Target=$30.15 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: MGG XG - Dec. $35p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mgg.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/03/2002
AG (Agco Corp.--$25.15; -0.71; optionable): Farm machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ag.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AG is again testing the short term moving averages after its early October breakout. After breakouts stocks tend to trend up the short term moving averages, testing them 4 to 5 times before selling back further. We are looking for a test of the 10 day MVA (24.75) and a rally back up from there. The buy is on the move back up off of that test.
Volume: 708.4K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: New positions: Test toward 24.75 and bounce (orig. $24.85). Volume=750K Target=$28.65 Stop=$23.25
POSITION: AG BX - Feb. $22.50c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ag.html
Play Date: 10/03/2002
AGAM (Acres Gaming--$6.03; -0.02; no options): video poker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agam.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AGAM has formed a very short (3-week) cup with handle that is acting as a handle to a much larger 17-month base. The past three sessions it has moved laterally and lower on the intraday lows. Tuesday volume shot higher as it showed a tight doji right at 6, a level that is acting as support on this move laterally. We are looking for AGAM to jump up off of this level on some continued strong volume.
Volume: 248.4K Avg Volume: 55.818K
BUY POINT: New positions: 6.25 (orig. $5.71). Volume=100K Target=$7 Stop=$5.31
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agam.html
BRO (Brown & Brown--$32.3; +0.38; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BRO is a former split stock. Still working on the handle as it tapped the 200 day MVA on the low (31.50) and bounced higher on some below average volume. Letting it continue to work laterally and then want that big volume breakout. Again, BRO sports some of the best fundamentals in the market.
Volume: 215K Avg Volume: 274.59K
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=475K Target=$38 Stop=$30.74
POSITION: BRO CF - Mar. $30c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bro.html
Play Date: 10/14/2002
CRL (Charles River Labs--$40.58; +0.58; optionable): White rats
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Started edging higher Tuesday, moving over the buy point but volume remained below average though it did climb. All we need now is some volume to go along with the move. We really like these ascending wedges on top of the cup, one of our favorite combination patterns as these can lead to excellent longer term moves.
Volume: 470.4K Avg Volume: 577.181K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=700K Target=$46.45 Stop=$37.55
POSITION: CRL BG - Feb. $35c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crl.html
Play Date: 09/14/2002
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$36.86; -0.63; optionable): Medical group
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CVH hit near 36 on the breakout a week ago and it is now pulling back toward the 10 day MVA (35.83) on lower volume, showing a doji on the candlestick pattern. Tuesday volume edged up toward average as it showed the doji, and that is often an indication the next leg is getting ready to start. It could snug up closer to that level before it makes its moves if the market continues to consolidate as expected. The entry point is on the way back up.
Volume: 610.9K Avg Volume: 600.045K
BUY POINT: New positions: Test of 35.83, then enter on the move up (orig. $35.75). Volume=1.1 Target=$42 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: CVH AF - Jan. $30c and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvh.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
ESRX (Express Scripts--$57.34; +0.98; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to make the move Tuesday on some stronger volume, but ESRX could not hold the move up to the high (58.75), instead coming back into the handle. Volume was average but just not enough to push the stock up and out. Not the day for it. Still looks good in the pattern and we wait for some volume to back the move.
Volume: 1.954M Avg Volume: 1.936M
BUY POINT: $56.05 Breakout over resistance: 57.55. Volume=2.5M Target=$62 Stop=$52.13
POSITION: XTQ BK - Feb. $55c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 10/17/2002
HNR (Harvest Natural Resources--$6.17; -0.04; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnr.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. A doji that tested below the 10 day MVA on the low (5.90) and snapped back on some rising though still below average volume. HNR is doing a good tight rope act here, moving along the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. That is what you like to see as a stock consolidates a good breakout move. If it remains strong it should use the 10 day MVA as its next launch point. Accumulation is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 107.2K Avg Volume: 161.954K
BUY POINT: $6.38 Volume=288K Target=$7.75 Stop=$5.78
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hnr.html
Play Date: 10/03/2002
INGR (Intergraph--$19.02; +0.29; optionable): System software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ingr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Some better action in the handle with an intraday touch down to the 18 day MVA on the low (18.05) and a rebound to close higher. Volume backed off. That lower intraday action works to shake out the last sellers. This is the extra consolidation we were looking for ahead of the breakout.
Volume: 340.622K Avg Volume: 351.181K
BUY POINT: Breakout: 19.85 (orig. $19). Volume=525K Target=$22.25 Stop=$17.84
POSITION: IGQ AC - Jan. $15c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ingr.html
Play Date: 10/08/2002
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$41.85; -0.54; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Cup/Ascending wedge. Still in the wedge on top of the cup pattern, NBIX continues to tighten up at the end of the wedge as volume backs off. Tuesday it showed a tight doji, holding the 10 day MVA on the low (41.50) while it is squeezed below the breakout point. Looks very good. Excellent accumulation.
Volume: 426.309K Avg Volume: 713.318K
BUY POINT: $42.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$50.75 Stop=$39.39
POSITION: UOT BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbix.html
Play Date: 10/07/2002
STE (Steris--$25.66; +0.12; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. STE continues to test the breakout, reaching down toward the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday low (25.29) on continued lower, below average volume. This is the kind of action a breakout stock will show, but STE needs to give the sharper bounce back up at this point. The action is good thus far with the lower volume and the doji at the 18 day MVA, but now it has to show us something with a further move.
Volume: 277.7K Avg Volume: 487.318K
BUY POINT: New positions: 26.25 (orig. $25.24). Volume=711K Target=$29.4 Stop=$24.15
POSITION: STE LD - Dec. $20c (78 delta) or STE CD - Mar. $20c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ste.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/20/2002
CECO (Career Education--$43.99; -8.4; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: CECO produced good numbers but received a valuation downgrade on the prospect of lighter enrollment in December. The stock was crushed, tapping the 200 day MVA on the low (41.40) before coming back some. Volume was huge as shares were dumped. It tested 42 three weeks back on the DV warning and recovered. Not sure it will have the same success this time. Looking for a test toward 46; if it cannot blast over that level (the 50 day MVA) on such a move we will have to close it out. It was under steady accumulation, but the action today clearly showed money running to the exit though some bought it at the support.
Volume: 9.178M Avg Volume: 960.863K
BUY POINT: No new positions. $46.55 Volume=700K Target=$53.53 Stop=$47.75
POSITION: CUY AH - Jan. $40c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 09/07/2002
EDMC (Education Management--$41.87; -3.48; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-24-02 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edmc.html
BACGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-2-98 at a stock price of $46. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: EDMC was hammered on CECO's coattails Tuesday, tapping below the 200 day MVA on the low (38.97) before coming back to close below the 50 day MVA (42.85). Volume shot up as it was sold as well, very similar to three weeks back. It managed to close near some former support at 42; if it can jump up over that level and through the 50 day MVA quickly it could recovery. It was struggling at 46 before this, however, and that makes the move harder. On another test of 43 that fails to hold above that level we will start closing it out to avoid a further breakdown on a failed attempt to retake the 50 day.
Volume: 1.026M Avg Volume: 357.863K
BUY POINT: No new positions at this point. Breakout: 46.10. Volume=520K Target=$49.45 Stop=$40.95
POSITION: UKN LH - Dec. $40c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/edmc.html
Play Date: 10/05/2002
IGT (International Game Technology--$72.85; -2.65; optionable): Gaming electronics. New information: Forecast to announce a split 11-7-02 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: IGT has never announced a stock split, but the gaming sector is performing well and the stock is near an all-time high, a leader in the market.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Blasted out on big volume Monday then gave some back Tuesday on some weak earnings results from some casinos. IGT makes slots, etc., so that had an impact. Still a good breakout and it sold on some lower volume. Will see if it can hold up and then continue the move. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 8 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 1.777M Avg Volume: 1.039M
BUY POINT: New positions: Test of 70.50 on the way back up. (orig. $70.95) Volume=1.2M Target=$80 Stop=$66.45
POSITION: IGT DN - April $70c (51 delta) or IGT AM - Jan $65c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
MME, TTC: See summary table
Play Date: 10/15/2002
UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$98.94; -0.38; optionable): No split announced with earnings. More likely will be on 10-23-02 in conjunction with a board meeting (last split announced). The company would not confirm the board meeting date, but based upon our research this is the date for the next board meeting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-25-00 at a stock price of $106. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Cup. We are anticipating the board meeting Wednesday, and UNH is doing a good job of consolidating its move while waiting, showing some doji's on lower though still above average volume. We would love to see it drift back to 97.50, hold, and then start back up on good volume. That is where we want to enter.
Volume: 2.284M Avg Volume: 2.38M
BUY POINT: After a pullback to test 97.50 to 95, a move back up on rising volume. Volume=3M Target=$106.88 Stop=$92.25
POSITION: UHB AS - Jan. $95c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unh.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BYS (Bay State Bancorp--$19.45; 0; no options): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bys.html
STATUS: A recent splitting stock still moving through a 9-week cup base. BYS is creeping up toward the high as it continues to show big intraday ranges, closing near the high for the session each time. Tuesday saw huge volume at it tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (18.75) and again rallied back up. The mega volume spike can indicate the stock is ready to make its move.
Volume: 319.1K Avg Volume: 60.363K
BUY POINT: $19.54 Volume=185K Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.17
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bys.html
Play Date: 10/15/2002
CHS (Chicos Fas--$19.74; -0.32; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Broke over the middle of its double bottom pattern at 19, and now may be ready to form a handle to the base as it pulled back Tuesday on much lower, below average volume. If it does form a handle it will most likely test back toward 19 over the next few sessions and then make its move. The buy can be off of that pullback on the way back up or on the breakout over the handle high which looks to be at 20.29 at this point. Good accumulation.
Volume: 1.007M Avg Volume: 1.389M
BUY POINT: New positions: after a test of 19, a move over $19.35 Volume=1.9M Target=$23.25 Stop=$18
POSITION: CHS BW - Feb. $17.50c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$18.29; -0.29; optionable): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
STATUS: Very nice handle to its recent double bottom in September and October. It is forming that handle right at resistance between 18 and 19. Volume has been creeping up the past few sessions, indicating that it could be ready to make its move.
Volume: 448.027K Avg Volume: 323.5K
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=475K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: KHQ DC - April $15c (no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcbk.html
Play Date: 10/16/2002
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$38.06; -0.33; optionable): Farm and ranch supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TSCO blasted out of its base last week and is now testing back on lower volume toward the 10 day MVA (36.16) as a good test should. It showed a doji with a tail that tapped close to the 10 day MVA on the low (36.70) and rallied back. It may snug up a bit more toward the 10 day MVA before starting to rally, particularly if the market continues to test back. Note, however, that TSCO is a leader and makes its moves before the rest of the market; thus it could test back another session and then be ready to go.
Volume: 246.8K Avg Volume: 176.181K
BUY POINT: New positions: after a test of 36, a move up on volume. Volume=235K Target=$46.85 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: QTF DG - April $35c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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