|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS: This evening we are looking at best plays for Friday given the weather related difficulties this evening.
Good moves: HNR; KSWS
NEW BONUS PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money.
Upside:
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$30.48; -0.23; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ABFS tired to break out of a 9-month base in early October but failed rather miserably. It tested the 50 day MVA, bounced sharply, and then broke out again after a short lateral consolidation. The last three sessions it has been testing back on lower, below average volume, showing a doji Thursday right on top of the 10 day MVA (30.30). Accumulation in the base is positive at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding, and we are looking at positions on a move up from the test on rising volume.
Volume: 349.059K Avg Volume: 368.954K
BUY POINT: $31.05 Volume=475K Target=$37 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: FDQ CF - March $30c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abfs.html
Downside:
VARI (Varian--$28.98; -2.26; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Put. In a downtrend since April, VARI tanked in late September and early October, and then fought back up to near 32 this week, just below the down trendline. The last part of the move up ran out of volume. Thursday VARI plunged lower on sharply higher volume, moving through the 50 day MVA and the short term moving averages at 29.50. It does not have to hit a new low make the play, just continue the momentum down to the recent low at 26.
Volume: 1.145M Avg Volume: 434.954K
BUY POINT: $28.85 Volume=500K Target=$26 Stop=$31.15
POSITION: IUA NF - Feb. $30p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vari.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/03/2002
AGAM (Acres Gaming--$5.89; +0.02; no options): video poker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agam.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of its short (3-week) cup with handle that is a handle to a much larger 17-month base. Wednesday and Thursday it showed once again lower volume as it tests the 10 day MVA on the low (5.89). Again we are looking for the breakout over the handle high at 6.20.
Volume: 45.1K Avg Volume: 59.227K
BUY POINT: New positions: 6.25 (orig. $5.71). Volume=100K Target=$7 Stop=$5.31
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agam.html
Play Date: 10/14/2002
HLYW (Hollywood Entertainment--$19.31; -0.3; optionable): music and videos and popcorn
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlyw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HLYW is coming back to test the previous strong moves, moving down to test the 10 day MVA on the Thursday low (19.16) on very low, below average volume. We are looking for this level to hold and provide another strong breakout for HLYW.
Volume: 428.911K Avg Volume: 882.454K
BUY POINT: New positions: 20.81 (orig. $19.45). Volume=1.2M Target=$22 Stop=$18.09
POSITION: HQW AC - Jan. $15c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hlyw.html
Play Date: 10/08/2002
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$40.42; -0.74; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Cup/Ascending wedge. May be shaking out the final sellers in the pattern as it moves below the 18 day MVA at 41 on much lower, below average volume. In these patterns that often occurs right before a sharper breakout. Thus we are on alert for a breakout move on volume. Excellent accumulation.
Volume: 399.359K Avg Volume: 698.136K
BUY POINT: $42.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$50.75 Stop=$39.39
POSITION: UOT BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbix.html
Play Date: 10/24/2002
QCOM (Qualcom--$35.39; -1.13; optionable): Communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QCOM rallied to 37 and is now falling back to test the 10 day MVA (34.84). Thursday it closed with a hammer doji just over that level on lower though still above average volume. The pattern suggests it is ready for a move back up.
Volume: 15.993M Avg Volume: 15.396M
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=18M Target=$40 Stop=$34.05
POSITION: AAW AZ - Jan. $32.50c (67 delta) or AAW AF - Jan. $30c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/05/2002
IGT (International Game Technology--$72.85; -1.79; optionable): Gaming electronics. New information: Forecast to announce a split 11-7-02 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: IGT has never announced a stock split, but the gaming sector is performing well and the stock is near an all-time high, a leader in the market.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After the big breakout Monday IGT is pulling back with the overall market and doing so on lower volume. That is what we want on a test though we wanted to see it gain more on the breakout. The market was not helping it make that continued move. We look for it to continue to test the 72.50 to the 10 day MVA at 71.59. From there we want to see it hold and bounce back up on rising volume. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 8 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 815.1K Avg Volume: 1.037M
BUY POINT: New positions: Test of 71.50 and catch it on the way back up. (orig. $70.95) Volume=1.2M Target=$80 Stop=$66.45
POSITION: IGT DN - April $70c (51 delta) or IGT AM - Jan $65c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
TTC (Toro--$60.8; +0.73; no options): Mowers and the like. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-02 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this information, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
Based upon our research it does not appear that TTC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-14-02
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. TTC is still testing the move, showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA Wednesday and then starting to bounce Thursday. Volume did not follow, however, and it gave back most of the move. Looking for another bounce up, this time on volume. Accumulation is very good at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 55.9K Avg Volume: 76.545K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $62.08 Volume=120K Target=$72 Stop=$57.73
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/21/2002
ALLY (Alliance Gaming--$17.26; -0.64; optionable): Gaming
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ally.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the big move higher Monday on strong volume, ALLY is now giving the test that we were looking for. It has been holding right at 17 on the lows the past three sessions as volume has backed off each session. We would like to see 17 hold though the 10 day MVA is just below at 16.64 and it could test lower to that point if the market continues its pullback. We can look at new positions from there or when it clears the breakout high.
Volume: 874.676K Avg Volume: 613.545K
BUY POINT: After test of 17: 17.45. New high: $18.12 Volume=845K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: AQL DC - April $15c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ally.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$18.21; -0.4; optionable): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
STATUS: Still in the handle to its recent double bottom in September and October. Thursday it was back down to the 10 day MVA (18.16) on continued below average volume. Just awaiting the breakout move.
Volume: 194.1K Avg Volume: 296.772K
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=475K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: KHQ DC - April $15c (no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcbk.html
Play Date: 10/09/2002
RNR (Renaissance Holdings--$42.73; +0.72; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the big breakout move two weeks back RNR is moving laterally above 42. The 10 day MVA has now risen to that level to meet the stock, and Thursday it started up though volume was not with it, and the afternoon selling took it well off of its high (43.80). RNR looks ready to continue its move.
Volume: 461.2K Avg Volume: 450.136K
BUY POINT: New positions: 43.35 (orig. $39.61). Volume=623K Target=$45.88 Stop=$39.75
POSITION: RNR AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnr.html
Play Date: 10/16/2002
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$38.68; +1.19; optionable): Farm and ranch supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TSCO started back up Thursday on rising, above average volume, moving off of its 10 day MVA just below 37. This is the move we were looking for, and it is still a buy on continued upside movement on solid volume. As we indicated, this leader looks to be making its move up ahead of the rest of the market.
Volume: 314.874K Avg Volume: 222K
BUY POINT: New positions: 38.95. Volume=235K Target=$46.85 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: QTF DG - April $35c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End Part 2 of 3
|
us stock market
stock split
|
