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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin Part 3 of 3
CONTINUING CANDIDATES
Play Date: 10/03/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$54.11; +1.11; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: A good, orderly test of the breakout on lower volume. It got a bit deeper than we wanted, but it held the simple 50 day MVA on the low (52.70) and then started up Friday on a strong volume surge. Closed well off the high (55.93), however, indicating the move was not as powerful as we would want: a lot of sellers along with the buyers. Nonetheless we will watch for another strong volume move up off of this level.
Volume: 567.4K Avg Volume: 443.674K
BUY POINT: $54.45 Volume=550K Target=$59.85 Stop=$52.05
POSITION: HQE AI - Jan. $45c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/21/2002
ALLY (Alliance Gaming--$17.7; +0.44; optionable): Not just another gaming stock
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ally.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ALLY blasted out of its base 5 sessions back and as the market has consolidated it has moved back to test 17 on lower and lower volume. This breakout comes on the heels of a 9-month base and is testing the old high. Looks ready for another move up off of this test.
Volume: 611.512K Avg Volume: 617.395K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=845K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: AQL DC - April $15c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ally.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BYS (Bay State Bancorp--$19.29; +0.14; no options): Savings & loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bys.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The smaller financials are looking better and better, and BYS looks as if it is ready to move out of its 10-week cup with handle base. Friday it tested the 10 day MVA again on the low and the rallied on stronger, above average volume. It ran into resistance at 19.50 again on the high, but it looks ready to take out that level this time. A top rated stock fundamentally along with the very nice technical pattern!
Volume: 141.4K Avg Volume: 53.799K
BUY POINT: $19.54 Volume=185K Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.17
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bys.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$18.62; +0.41; optionable):: Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
STATUS: A very tight, lateral handle to its double bottom base, HCBK tested the 10 day MVA on the Friday low once again (18.20) and started back up. This time the volume surge was impressive, showing the strongest volume in over a month. Really like the action, and particularly the volume surge.
Volume: 721.655K Avg Volume: 295.942K
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=475K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: KHQ DC - April $15c (no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcbk.html
Play Date: 10/09/2002
RNR (Renaissance Holdings--$42.73; +0.72; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the big breakout move two weeks back RNR is moving laterally above 42. The 10 day MVA has now risen to that level to meet the stock, and Thursday it started up though volume was not with it, and the afternoon selling took it well off of its high (43.80). RNR looks ready to continue its move.
Volume: 461.2K Avg Volume: 450.136K
BUY POINT: New positions: 43.35 (orig. $39.61). Volume=623K Target=$45.88 Stop=$41
POSITION: RNR AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnr.html
Play Date: 10/16/2002
SBUX (Starbucks--$23.93; +1.48; optionable): High-priced coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. SBUX got real wild two weeks back and we decided to let it take some time and form up. It did not wait too long, moving back over the 200 day MVA at 22.45, holding at that level a few sessions and then blasting higher on above average volume Friday as earnings turned out to be very good as people still opt to spend $5 for a cup of coffee. We are looking for a break over the recent high as the entry point, and it has to be on some good volume. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 4.961M Avg Volume: 4.249M
BUY POINT: $24.21 Volume=5.5M Target=$29 Stop=$22.35
POSITION: SQX DD - April $20 c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Play Date: 10/12/2002
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$22.65; -0.2; optionable): Card shufflers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a handle to its 6-month cup base, SHFL moved laterally and slightly lower last week as it etched the handle on lower, below. Friday it tested the 10 day MVA on the low (22.03) and rebounded as volume edged higher. Very good, orderly shakeout. Accumulation is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Very nice pattern has formed.
Volume: 263.508K Avg Volume: 286.06K
BUY POINT: $20.38 Volume=375K Target=$24 Stop=$21
POSITION: SFQ BW - Feb. $17.50c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABFS 10/24 Test BO 30.87 +0.39 31.05 37 155K 475K 28.88
Buy not hit. Good test.
AGAM 10/03 Test 50 5.98 +0.09 5.71 7 12K 100K 5.31
Buy not issued. Looks really good.
ALLY 10/21 BO 17.7 +0.44 18.12 21.75 612K 845K 16.85
Buy not hit. The test of the breakout is going just fine.
APOL 10/12 BO 43.09 +2.15 44.24 50.88 2.9M 3.3M 42.05
Current. Nice recovery over the 50 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Needed that move.
APOL 08/15 A Wedge 43.09 +2.15 40.65 48 2.9M 3.3M 42
Current.
APPX 09/19 cup hdl 18.74 -1.22 17.11 24 2.1M 225K 17.74
Exited.
AZO 10/01 DB hdl 85.95 +0.92 81.55 92 1.2M 1.5M 83.18
Current. Better action after the dump Thursday to the 10 day MVA.
AZO 08/24 DB hdl 85.95 +0.92 75.69 82.55 1.2M 1.5M 80
Current.
BBBY 10/26 Cup 37.29 +1.26 37.65 43 3M 7M 35.01
New.
BCGI 10/01 cup hdl 12.48 +0.24 10.93 14 236K 250K 10.95
Current. Started up again on solid volume.
BLUD 10/10 BO 21.65 -0.57 21.4 24.24 222K 650K 18.75
Current. Testing back on very low volume. Look for at hold at 21 and then a buy on a move up from there.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 12.24 +0.38 19.2 19.8 5.8M 9M 17.25
Current. Moderate rise on no volume as it works up and down in the current range.
BRO 10/19 cup hdl 32.16 +1.07 33.05 38 126K 475K 30.74
Buy not hit. Dropped Thursday but recovered Friday though still on low volume. May have been a shakeout, but we just wait to see if BRO can make the volume move over the buy point.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 38.1 -0.65 37.75 45.75 3M 3.3M 35.85
Current. Modest pullback Friday.
BSX 09/12 cup hdl 38.1 -0.65 30.94 40 3M 3.3M 35.85
Current.
BYS 10/19 Cup 19.29 +0.14 19.54 23.45 141K 185K 18.17
Buy not hit. Bigger volume; looks as if ready.
CAH 10/22 cup hdl 70.36 +1.95 70.55 76 2.3M 3.8M 67.45
Buy not issued. Looks ready for a strong move up, but need to see the volume on the move.
CCE 10/15 cup hdl 24.18 +0.65 23.38 28 1.2M 1.6M 22.75
Current. Solid move Friday on rising volume.
CECO 09/20 Test 50 46.2 +1.14 46.55 53.53 665K 700K 47.75
Current. Up to the 50 day MVA on low volume. If cannot break here it will most likely sell so we will most likely exit.
CHD 10/05 cup hdl 34.54 +0.42 35.55 41 79K 225K 33.65
Current. Held the 18 day MVA on this test on continued low volume.
CHS 10/15 Dbl btm 20.41 +0.35 19.35 23.25 788K 1.9M 18.65
Current. Up again Friday, but not a lot of volume as it continues to work higher.
COCO 09/18 Test 18 37.05 +0.36 38.11 42.75 512K 809K 35.44
Current. Trying to hold over the 50 day MVA after a good recovery to regain that territory.
COCO 08/01 Rv H&S 37.05 +0.36 29.95 36 512K 809K 35.75
Current.
COH 10/22 cup hdl 31.87 -0.02 30.25 36.35 965K 1.5M 29.85
Current. Taking a breather the past two sessions.
CPBI 10/12 cup hdl 50.41 -0.34 46.41 52.45 14K 25K 43.16
CRL 10/14 A Wedge 40 +0.74 40.22 46.45 339K 700K 37.55
Buy not issued. Still looks ready.
CVH 09/14 cup hdl 36.02 +0.75 35.75 42 1.1M 1.1 33.95
Current. Wild action, opening at the 50 day MVA and recovering to close just over the 10 day MVA on some very strong volume.
DL 09/28 cup hdl 21.19 -0.05 21.84 25.55 494K 712K 21
Current. No rally with the market, so looking for any move up to exit.
DLX 10/08 Rv H&S 47.27 +0.85 48.4 54.45 250K 510K 45.65
Current. Up off the simple 50 day MVA Friday. Not much volume but we will see if it can rally again. If not we will look to exit and move on.
EDMC 09/07 Rv H&S 42.38 +0.96 44.03 49.45 196K 520K 41.95
Current. Up to the 50 day MVA on the high (42.67) on low volume. Needs to clear this level early in the week or we will exit.
EDMC 09/07 Rv H&S 42.38 +0.96 45.7 52.55 196K 520K 42.50
Current.
ELAB 10/14 BO 20.67 -0.13 23.05 27.65 430K 225K 21.35
Current. Held the 50 day MVA Friday on continuing strong volume, showing a doji. Looking for that bounce again that we saw in early October.
ERES 09/07 A Wedge 14.64 -0.35 17.35 19.95 597K 200K 16.95
Current. Tested support at 14 and moved up but needs to get some speed up toward 17 early in the week.
ETR 09/24 Put 43.16 -0.29 37.88 34 812K 1.3M 41.35
Exited.
FNFG 09/20 BO 31.3 +0.2 31.75 36.51 39K 87K 29.53
GSB 10/26 cup hdl 36 +0.7 36.12 41.35 1.7M 1.6M 34
New.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 19.8 +0.94 19.64 22.45 923K 586K 18.27
Current. Blasted off Friday on solid volume and we saw it and issued the alert to open the play.
HCA 10/07 cup hdl 50.98 +0.56 49.52 56.94 2M 3.2M 48.49
Current. Nice recovery after gapping open below the 18 day MVA. Rallied for a gain on the session.
HCBK 10/19 cup hdl 18.62 +0.41 19.05 22.85 722K 475K 17.55
Buy not hit. Looks very ready.
HLYW 10/14 Test BO 19.96 +0.65 19.45 22 760K 1.2M 18.09
Current. Looks ready for a new buy.
HLYW 10/09 BO 19.96 +0.65 18.45 22 760K 965K 17.74
Current.
HNR 10/17 Test BO 7 0 6.38 7.75 287K 288K 5.78
Current. Took the day off after the big breakout.
HRH 10/21 A Wedge 42.75 +1.29 45.1 52 105K 257K 41.94
Buy not hit. Still working in the bigger base on below average volume.
HSIC 10/03 Test 50 54.11 +1.11 54.45 59.85 567K 550K 52.05
Current. Big volume as it tried to make the move up Friday.
IDXX 09/26 cup hdl 34.78 +2.23 32.11 36.75 547K 468K 31.55
Current. Another excellent move.
IGT 10/05 cup hdl 75.19 +2.34 73 82 1.3M 1.2M 69
Current. Nice move Friday again as volume came back.
INGR 10/03 cup hdl 19.45 +0.09 19 22.25 255K 525K 18.25
Current. Looks ready to breakout over the May high.
KDE 09/25 A Wedge 28.8 +0.2 21.31 31 176K 180K 25.75
Current. Low volume pullback and looks ready for new buys after a test of 28.
KLAC 10/19 BO 33.62 +1.86 33.05 38 17M 1.9M 30.74
Current. Back over the 50 day MVA and looking decent.
KSWS 10/23 cup hdl 26.35 +1.1 24.11 28.94 402K 187K 24.94
Another move higher on volume.
LANC 09/21 Test 18 46.23 +0.64 44.25 50.88 79K 254K 41.15
Buy not issued. No volume yet.
LAND 10/12 BO 12.28 -0.07 12.35 14.85 3.4K 25K 11.49
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 3.1 -0.09 3.22 4.35 120K 145K 2.99
Current. Held the 18 day MVA on the close as volume backed off. Must hold here.
LNCR 10/19 Cup 34.98 +0.53 35.32 40.55 1.1M 1.1M 33.65
Current. Got some more volume as it tried to make the breakout.
MCHP 10/10 BO 24.04 +1.36 24.45 28.5 5.8M 6M 22
Current. Bacj up off the 50 day MVA on lower though still above average volume.
MME 10/02 cup hdl 40.85 -1.12 40.75 46 889K 650K 39.55
Current. Struggling again w/a higher volume test of the 18 day MVA.
MOVI 10/19 cup hdl 18.32 -0.11 18.22 22 297K 975K 16.85
Buy not issued. May be ready as it moves laterally showing some doji's on below average volume.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 41.72 +1.3 42.35 50.75 625K 1.1M 39.39
Buy not issued. This could be the time with the higher volume bounce off the 50 day MVA.
PENN 09/14 cup hdl 19.85 +0.13 21.15 25.35 333K 480K 18.65
Current. Holding above the 18 day MVA on some below average volume.
PFGC 10/12 Test 50 36.77 +0.52 36.55 39.5 401K 500K 35.65
Current. Very nice handle forming to the 6-month base.
QCOM 10/24 Test BO 36.52 +1.13 35.65 40 14M 18M 34.05
Current. Very nice action and looks ready to break the recent high.
QCOM 10/10 BO 36.52 +1.13 31.1 38 14M 20M 34.05
Current.
RNR 10/09 cup hdl 43.24 +0.51 39.61 45.88 320K 623K 41
Current. Good move up but no volume Friday.
SBUX 10/16 cup hdl 23.93 +1.48 24.21 29 5M 5.5M 22.35
Back on.
SHFL 10/12 A Wedge 22.65 -0.2 20.38 24 264K 375K 21
Current. Very nice handle forming here on low volume.
SLAB 10/16 Test 50 21.35 +1.16 24.4 28 1M 1.3M 22.69
Current. Up to the 50 day MVA on the high but not any volume. Needs to get over 22 early in the week.
SLE 10/26 Test BO 22.8 +0.1 23.11 27.55 2.8M 3.8M 21.65
New.
STE 10/07 BO 25.74 +0.64 25.24 29.4 397K 711K 24.15
Current. UP off the 18 day MVA Friday.
STE 09/28 BO 25.74 +0.64 23.95 28.75 397K 711K 24.15
Current.
STU 10/16 cup hdl 96.47 +1.36 94 108 5.4K 40K 88.45
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 38.57 -0.11 39.05 46.85 189K 235K 36.32
Current. Lower volume, just holding ground Friday.
TTC 10/17 BO 61.7 +0.9 62.08 72 68K 120K 57.73
Buy not issued. Good rising volume move Friday. Close.
UNH 10/15 Test BO 97.09 -1.19 95.35 106.88 3.8M 3M 92.25
Buy not issued. Tested below the 18 day MVA and snapped back on sharply higher volume but don't like the wild action; should be quieter in a test.
VAR 10/25 A Wedge 47.98 +2.23 47.5 54.55 960K 550K 45.25
Current. Saw the new breakout move Friday and issued the alert for the new buy point.
VAR 09/16 A Wedge 47.98 +2.23 43.96 50.55 960K 550K 45
Current.
VAR 08/10 Dbl btm 47.98 +2.23 42.75 50.55 960K 550K 45
Current.
VARI 10/24 Put 28.98 0 28.85 26 390K 500K 31.15
Buy not issued. Weak test of the breakdown.
WEDC 10/19 BO 10.13 +0.46 9.45 12 126K 142K 9.15
Current. Another good volume move.
WGO 10/23 cup hdl 47.41 +1.61 49.21 56 174K 420K 45.77
Buy not hit. Solid point move Friday but no volume.
WHI 10/16 DB hdl 18.24 +0.89 18.6 22.25 84K 356K 17.16
Buy not hit. Good move off the 50 day MVA.
XRAY 10/05 cup hdl 38.93 +0.25 42.28 48.75 243K 900K 39.85
Current. Showed a doji on low volume above some support at 38. Will see if can get a strong bounce. Will need to clear 40 on the move or else that will be the selling point as the move will most likely fail if it does not.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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