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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Please define target volume. I assume once a price crosses a pivot point @ target volume a buy alert is issued? Thanks
A: Target volume is the volume we look for on the move we are anticipating. It is not always automatic, that is, stock hits buy point, volume is at target, buy order put in. It is great if the stock is at, close to, or above the target volume when the stock hits the buy price. That usually happens later in the session or if there is some major buying early in the session with institutions getting on the stock early. That makes it relatively easy. Many times, however, volume is not there. Most volume occurs in the first and last hours of a session. If volume is not strong in the first hour and the stock is hitting the buy point we will fight the urge to move in too early. We prefer to let the action unfold and see whether volume builds. In many cases if volume is not there a stock will have a hard time holding the move. We prefer to see how it is building throughout the session. If it is on track when we check (e.g., 50% of target at lunch) it could be worth taking a position. Heading into the close we have a better picture of the volume and the intraday price action. If the stock is holding up well, i.e., has not reversed intraday off its highs or given the move back, we can move in at that time as well as we have a very good picture of the stock's performance on the breakout or other move we are looking for. We can often get in on a small pullback in the last half hour as some of the day traders take some gains that temporarily pressures the stock.
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: BYS still rolling as is BCGI in a weak market.
LEADER PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money.
Upside:
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$58.01; -0.99; optionable): Printers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Six-month cup that is now forming a handle, finally giving an entry point if the pattern continues to hold up. LXK has been outperforming the market, reporting excellent earnings earlier this month. It is one of the few tech stocks that is outperforming, running up the right side of its base on some serious volume as it should be doing. Now it needs to form a handle that dips back as it is doing on lower volume. Tuesday was a good start with the stock pulling back on below average volume, testing 57 on the low and recovering to close at 58.
Volume: 1.203M Avg Volume: 1.451M
BUY POINT: $60.29 Volume=2.2M Target=$72 Stop=$56.07
POSITION: LXK DK - April $55c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
Downside:
TECD (Tech Data--$30.32; -2.31; optionable): Wholesale computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tecd.html
STATUS: Put. Unlike many stocks, TECD did not form a double bottom, tanking straight to an October low at 24. From there it rebounded with the market, but peaked out Monday on some higher volume and then rolled back through the 50 day MVA (30.92) as volume moved even higher, rising above average. Some support at 32 that it needs to move through on continued volume.
Volume: 1.021M Avg Volume: 744.318K
BUY POINT: $29.49 Volume=900K Target=$26.35 Stop=$31.15
POSITION: TDQ XG - Dec. $35p (-88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tecd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/24/2002
ABFS (Arkansas Best--$30.67; +0.19; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abfs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Might be finishing the test of the breakout, reaching below the 18 day MVA just below 30 and starting back up on rising volume. It was not big volume, but it was starting to move up on climbing volume. Now it needs to hit the buy on a volume surge. Accumulation in the base is positive at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is outstanding.
Volume: 218.798K Avg Volume: 371.045K
BUY POINT: $31.05 Volume=475K Target=$37 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: FDQ CF - March $30c (60 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abfs.html
Play Date: 10/03/2002
AGAM (Acres Gaming--$6.13; +0.18; no options): video poker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agam.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting up on some strong volume Tuesday, rising off the 10 day MVA (5.90) on an outstanding volume surge. Looks ready to make the move out of this short base in a larger 17-month base.
Volume: 162.2K Avg Volume: 59.09K
BUY POINT: New positions: 6.25 (orig. $5.71). Volume=100K Target=$7 Stop=$5.31
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agam.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$37.45; -0.06; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BSX continues to move well, making its second test of the short term MVA after the early October breakout. While the market has struggled BSX has pulled back to test the 10 day MVA (36.70) on lower and lower volume. It is holding right on top of the last move up and the lower and lower volume indicates it is going to be ready for another move.
Volume: 1.988M Avg Volume: 2.478M
BUY POINT: New positions: 38.25 (orig. $37.75; 30.94) Volume=3.3M Target=$45.75 Stop=$35.85
POSITION: BSX BF - Feb. $32.50c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 10/14/2002
CRL (Charles River Labs--$39.74; +0.14; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still moving in the combination cup/wedge pattern, working near the buy point. It approached the breakout and made the move on very low volume. It is still holding the pattern well, but the move up to 41 was on no volume and it fell back down. Looking for that breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 188.7K Avg Volume: 575K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=700K Target=$46.45 Stop=$37.55
POSITION: CRL BG - Feb. $35c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crl.html
GSB (Golden State Bancorp--$36.25; +0.01; optionable): Savings & loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsb.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make a breakout move Monday but there was no volume. Friday there was good volume on that up move, and Tuesday there was good volume on the test lower that was able to recover. The deal with the acquisition by C has been approved and GSB looks ready to continue the move up. Overall accumulation in the base is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 956.4K Avg Volume: 1.001M
BUY POINT: New positions: $36.45 (orig. $36.12) Volume=1.6M Target=$41.35 Stop=$34
POSITION: GSB AF - Jan. $30c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gsb.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$34.55; -0.45; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Testing 50 day MVA. Held up remarkably well in the market Tuesday, having some trouble with 35 still, selling back slightly on lower volume. It recovered well from its low (33.23) given the Looking for a move over 35 on another volume surge.
Volume: 18.829M Avg Volume: 16.544M
BUY POINT: New positions: 35.38 (orig. $33.05) Volume=1.9M Target=$38 Stop=$30.74
POSITION: KCQ AF - Jan. $30c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/klac.html
Play Date: 10/08/2002
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$42.96; +0.4; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Cup/Ascending wedge. NBIX has continued its move this week but volume has not followed after the stronger volume move Friday off the 50 day MVA. It is ready, it just needs some volume. This is a wedge following a cup, one of our favorite patterns. Excellent accumulation.
Volume: 521.907K Avg Volume: 671K
BUY POINT: From here if volume comes in (orig. $42.35) Volume=1.1M Target=$50.75 Stop=$39.39
POSITION: UOT BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbix.html
Play Date: 10/26/2002
SLE (Sara Lee--$23.05; +0.65; optionable): Nobody doesn't like Sara Lee (except in July)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sle.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. Very nice test of the breakout and then started up Tuesday on a good shot of rising, above average volume. A very solid performance given the market. Good enough for some positions, and it looks ready to continue the move. Accumulation is positive at 6 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks in the base.
Volume: 3.81M Avg Volume: 2.509M
BUY POINT: $23.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$27.55 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: SLE DD - April $20c (83 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sle.html
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
FRX (Forest Labs--$98.75; +1.05; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 12-16-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-18-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $135. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-23-98 at a stock price of $62. The annuals shareholder meeting was on 8-8-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FRX has enjoyed a lot of good news that spiked it higher, and now it is testing the move after receiving a valuation downgrade last week. It is in fact coming off an all-time high and that shies some away from such a stock. But looking at its history, the stock is powerful, and it just broke out of a 6 month base in October and its making its first real test. On a move up on strong volume from here it is ready for positions.
Volume: 1.621M Avg Volume: 2.054M
BUY POINT: $99.55 Volume=3.1M Target=$115 Stop=$94.25
POSITION: FHA BS - Feb. $95c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/26/2002
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$35.53; -0.5; optionable): Home furnishings. Working on a date but wanted to take advantage of any good move from this pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: BBBY has announced 3 prior splits: 1996, 1998, 2000. The most recent was right in this range, and this is the first time BBBY had been back to this level since that split.
STATUS: Cup. Could be starting to form that handle, but it is doing so on rising volume when we would prefer lower volume. Some of that has to do with the market and the confidence numbers, and we note that BBBY sold down to 34.27 on the low and recovered to close just over the 10 day MVA. Accumulation is 8 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume. Will wait for the handle to finish and let it make the breakout.
Volume: 5.754M Avg Volume: 4.588M
BUY POINT: $37.65 Volume=7M Target=$43 Stop=$35.01
POSITION: BHQ BG - Feb. $35c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 10/05/2002
IGT (International Game Technology--$75.47; +0.45; optionable): Gaming electronics. Forecast to announce a split 11-7-02 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: IGT has never announced a stock split, but the gaming sector is performing well and the stock is near an all-time high, a leader in the market.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving laterally at 75, trying to make the move on some good volume but the market was not ready. Holding up very, very well. A move over 75.70 is a breakout to a new high and a buy point if it is on solid volume. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 9 up weeks on rising volume to 8 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 796.6K Avg Volume: 984.318K
BUY POINT: New positions: $75.75 (orig. $70.95). Volume=1.2M Target=$82 Stop=$69
POSITION: IGT DN - April $70c (51 delta) or IGT AM - Jan $65c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 10/17/2002
TTC (Toro--$62.41; +1.11; no options): Mowers and the like. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-02 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this information, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
Based upon our research it does not appear that TTC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-14-02
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. Tried the breakout Monday as volume moved above average, but it could not hold the move. It shook it off. Tuesday it was up again but volume backed off a bit to below average levels. Looks solid and just needs some volume behind it. Accumulation is very good at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 65.1K Avg Volume: 74.136K
BUY POINT: New positions on the breakout: 62.55 Volume=120K Target=$72 Stop=$57.73
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 10/21/2002
ALLY (Alliance Gaming--$16.99; -0.26; optionable): Not just another gaming stock
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ally.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing back, tapping the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday low (16.51) and rallying back to close just over the 10 day MVA - - a common occurrence Tuesday. It made the move on rising, average volume. This is testing the breakout its 8-month cup w/handle base.
Volume: 694.84K Avg Volume: 614.727K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=845K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: AQL DC - April $15c (76 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ally.html
Play Date: 10/19/2002
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$18.46; -0.02; optionable): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
STATUS: Still working on that tight, lateral handle, moving along the 10 day MVA. Showing a doji Tuesday on rising volume. Looks ready to make the breakout, but we have to be patient.
Volume: 212.859K Avg Volume: 270.136K
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=475K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: KHQ DC - April $15c (no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcbk.html
KSWS (K-Swiss--$25.41; 0; optionable): Shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. KSWS started testing the breakout this week, holding above the 10 day MVA (24.35) on lower volume. During the base accumulation is solid at 5 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks. Money flow is excellent.
Volume: 272.885K Avg Volume: 129.363K
BUY POINT: New positions: 26.05 Volume=187K Target=$28.94 Stop=$22.42
POSITION: SWU DX - April $22.50c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
Play Date: 10/12/2002
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$22.58; +0.2; optionable): Card shufflers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SHFL tried to make the breakout Monday, running to 24.24 on the high before reversing. Tuesday it fell to 21 on the low and then rallied with the market back up, closing over the 10 day MVA (22.11) on lower though still above average volume. A very good move and looking for the breakout. Accumulation is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 474.277K Avg Volume: 295.227K
BUY POINT: Breakout: 23.80 (orig. $20.38). Volume=375K Target=$24 Stop=$21
POSITION: SFQ BW - Feb. $17.50c (74 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$47.61; +0.17; optionable): Natural food grocery store
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a very nice handle on below average volume for the last week. Accumulation during the base is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Showed a doji Tuesday that tapped at the 10 day MVA on the low (46.80) and rallied back. Looks very good.
Volume: 369.177K Avg Volume: 649.318K
BUY POINT: $49.35 Volume=975K Target=$56.75 Stop=$45.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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