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stock research, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1468.74
Resistance: Price resistance at 1500 and the 200 day MVA (1502). 1574, the May low, is next.
Support: The August high at 1427. 1418, the interim test after the September 2001. The 10 day MVA (1412) is possible support. The 18 day MVA at 1385. 1357.09, the October 1998 bear market low. July, August, and September interim highs at 1345. The 50 day MVA (1334).
S&P 500: Closed at 930.55
Resistance: Price resistance at 950. 965, the September 2001 closing low along with the August 2002 high. Then price resistance at 990.
Support: The November high at 925.66. 921 is some price support. July, August and September interim highs at 909 to 911. The 10 day MVA is right there at 911 as well. The top of the late October consolidation range at 899 and the 18 day MVA (903). The 50 day MVA (890). The September 2000/May 2001 downtrend line at 877. The March down trendline at 866. 850 to 855 (the October 1997 and Q2 1998 lows).
Dow: Closed at 8804.84
Resistance: A range of resistance from 9000 on up to 9050. The 200 day MVA (9205). 9500 from June and July lows.
Support: The November high at 8800 and then the late July and early September interim high at 8726 to 8762.14 (8745 closing). The 10 day MVA (8617). The 18 day MVA (8539) and then the October high at 8500. The exponential 50 day MVA (8410) and then 8250.
Economic Calendar
11-25-02
Existing home sales, October (10:00): 5.35M expected, 5.40M prior.
11-26-02
Q3 GDP, preliminary (8:30): 3.2% exepcted, 3.1% actual.
Consumer confidence, November (10:00): 83.0 expected, 79.4 prior.
New home sales, October (10:00): 980K expected, 1.021M prior.
11-27-02
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 376k prior.
Personal income, October (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.4% prior.
Personal spending, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.4% prior.
Michigan sentiment, final, November (9:45): 85.0 expected, 85.0 prior.
Durable goods orders, October (10:00): 3.0% expected, -4.9% prior.
Chicago PMI, November (10:00): 47.5 expected, 45.9 prior.
Fed Beige Book (12:00)
SUBSCRIBERS QUESTIONS
Q: What is the likely future direction of a stock that has risen for several consecutive days (7), but with declining volume each day?
A: Some stocks can run on low volume. They defy the normal logic of needing more buyers to push it higher, but if there are no sellers they can do it as they fly under the radar screen of short sellers. WTW is famous for that and it has some good runs. But it also gets whacked down, and that is the usual result of a low volume ascent. The longer it moves up on low volume, the more likely it will fail, but volume can always kick in. In short, a stock can climb on low volume but the moves tend to be abrupt when a change comes.
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THE PLAYS:
Good moves: EBAY; RYAAY
Best Plays:
1) ACTI: Strong volume surge and ready for the breakout.
2) MSN: Nice pattern and ready for a new high.
3) PECS: Nice handle to the cup.
4) BBOX: Moving toward the breakout.
5) IMN: Nice consolidation.
6) JOSB: Great combination pattern.
7) NWRE: Volume moving up as it moves toward the breakout.
8) WOOF: Very low volume in the handle indictes it is close.
New Plays:
Play Date: 11/23/2002
ACTI (Activecard--$9.03; +0.23; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acti.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ACTI is moving through a 12 month base, starting to rally off the lows in October with a big move in early November. It has since moved laterally, holding above the 18 day MVA (8.45). Friday ACTI showed a big volume surge, the largest since the huge move early in the month, as the stock tested lower and rallied hard to the close. Accumulation is solid and money flow leaped up ahead of the stock during its lateral move. Looks ready to make the strong breakout.
Volume: 585.7K Avg Volume: 125K
BUY POINT: $9.28 Volume=165K Target=$11.88 Stop=$8.56
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acti.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
FFIV (F5 Networks--$14.08; +0.04; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving in a 3-month base after rallying off the July lows and peaking in mid-October. After a short handle that tested the 10 day MVA, FFIV shot higher, breaking over the 200 day MVA (13.40) on Thursday. It tested the 200 day Friday on the low and recovered. Accumulation is positive at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 713.781K Avg Volume: 750K
BUY POINT: $14.54 Volume=750K Target=$17.97 Stop=$13.45
POSITION: FLK DV - April $12.50c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
MSN (Emerson Radio--$3.71; -0.07; no options): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MSN blasted off its lows in August and ran up to over 4. It then started the current base that shows accumulation at 3 weeks to 2 distribution weeks. Electronics are coming back and this is a really nice pattern.
Volume: 110.2K Avg Volume: 120K
BUY POINT: $3.98 Volume=150K Target=$5.48 Stop=$3.7
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msn.html
PECS (PEC Solutions--$34.04; -0.16; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pecs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PECS is in the handle of its 11-month pattern, sporting solid accumulation at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume. The price/volume action is good, as volume at the bottom of the base dried up and then surged as the stock formed the right side of its base. The handle has been on mostly lower volume punctuated with a few volume spikes. It is holding on the close above the 18 day MVA in the handle, a sign of support for the stock even as it drifts lower intraday. This sector has really improved, an indication that the business side of the economy is improving. Looks ready for a good breakout.
Volume: 299.549K Avg Volume: 380K
BUY POINT: $36.32 Volume=650K Target=$43.65 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: PQD DF - April $30c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pecs.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
PVSW (Pervasive Software--$4.00; 0.00; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvsw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through an 11-month base and now looks to be forming the handle above the 10 day MVA (3.96). The handle is very, very tight as volume drops way down to below average levels. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 50 down weeks on lower volume. The pattern is building for something dramatic.
Volume: 26.3K Avg Volume: 72.5K
BUY POINT: $4.27 Volume=125K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.97
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pvsw.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/14/2002
BBOX (Black Box--$47.65; +0.25; optionable): Networking & communications hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbox.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BBOX is forming an ascending wedge over the 200 day MVA (42.50) following the cup that shows solid accumulation. Friday the stock was itching to make the breakout, moving up to that level on rising, average volume. Looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 445.975K Avg Volume: 445K
BUY POINT: $47.15 Volume=550K Target=$55 Stop=$43.85
POSITION: QBX CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbox.html
Play Date: 11/05/2002
CVD (Covance--$23.62; +0.61; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Breakout. Started back up Friday with a good price move but could not attract a lot of volume. With the holiday week it may be hard to attract more volume, but there will still be breakouts. With the stock moving so well, we will look to enter if it continues the move and hits the buy point.
Volume: 232.7K Avg Volume: 389.954K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=581K Target=$28 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 11/02/2002
DVA (Davita--$25.54; -0.01; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After making the move 7 sessions back DVA is testing the move, tapping at the 18 day MVA Friday on the low (25.20) as volume moved back up to average levels. A nice test of the move and DVA looks ready for a more sustained move now.
Volume: 378.4K Avg Volume: 375K
BUY POINT: $25.11 Volume=520K Target=$30 Stop=$24.74
POSITION: DVA DX - April $22.50c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dva.html
IMN (Imation--$41.66; -0.02; optionable): PC disks and the like
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imn.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Held steady Friday on rising, average volume. The fact that IMN tested the 10 day MVA on the low (41.06) and climbed back on the close is just more good action in the lateral consolidation of the earlier move. This was one of the early leaders and we are patiently waiting for it to provide the next breakout move.
Volume: 487.5K Avg Volume: 478K
BUY POINT: $42.41 Volume=700K Target=$48 Stop=$39.44
POSITION: IMN DG - April $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imn.html
Play Date: 11/02/2002
ISIL (Intersil Holdings--$18.49; -0.51; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isil.html
STATUS: Testing the move. ISIL was running well until it received a downgrade Tuesday and dropped to the 50 day MVA. it has fought back and Friday it showed a very tight doji that tested the 18 day MVA on the low (17.80) and recovered to close just above the 10 day MVA. Volume backed off to below average levels. Money flow remains strong and it looks as if ISIL is ready to continue the move higher.
Volume: 3.061M Avg Volume: 3.2M
BUY POINT: New positions: $18.85 (orig. $18) Volume=3.5M Target=$22 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: UFH DC - April $15c (76 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isil.html
Play Date: 11/13/2002
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$25.94; +0.44; no options): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle/ascending wedge combo. JOSB made the breakout of its 5-month base in October, tested the move, and is now forming this wedge with a top just over 26. It is moving up the 18 day MVA, testing it on the lows (24.50) as volume drops further and further below average. JOSB is right at an all-time high, and this combination pattern is one of our favorites as it often precedes much stronger moves.
Volume: 73.828K Avg Volume: 192K
BUY POINT: $25.51 Volume=250K Target=$30.45 Stop=$23.35
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/josb.html
Play Date: 11/09/2002
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$41.9; -0.74; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout over the 200 day MVA (40.50). MXIM blasted off Wednesday and Thursday on massive volume, clearing the 200 day MVA with ease. Friday it was testing that move, showing a doji on lower, below average volume as it edged back slightly. The break over the 200 day was very strong, so we look at the test on lower volume as an opportunity to enter additional positions. It may test a bit further toward 40.50 once more, and if it holds and reverses we will look at new positions.
Volume: 10.151M Avg Volume: 10.6M
BUY POINT: New positions: test 40.50, then 41.10 (orig. $34.25) Volume=12M Target=New: 50 (orig. positions $45) Stop=$39.94
POSITION: XIQ BG - Feb. $35c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxim.html
End Part 2 of 3
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stock research
stock option
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