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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
11-25-02
Existing home sales, October (10:00): +6.1% (5.77M actua), 5.35M expected, 5.40M prior.
11-26-02
Q3 GDP, preliminary (8:30): 4.0% actual, 3.2% exepcted, 3.1% prior.
Consumer confidence, November (10:00): 84.1 actual, 85.0 expected (revised up Monday from 83.0), 79.4 prior.
New home sales, October (10:00): 1.01M (-4.1%) actual, 985K expected, 1.021M prior.
11-27-02
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 383K expected, 376k prior.
Personal income, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior.
Personal spending, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.4% prior.
Michigan sentiment, final, November (9:45): 85.0 expected, 85.0 prior.
Durable goods orders, October (10:00): 1.8% expected, -4.9% prior.
Chicago PMI, November (10:00): 48.5 expected, 45.9 prior.
Fed Beige Book (12:00)
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SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: When you say you are not chasing a stock, if it runs sharply do you ever buy it above the buy point, e.g., if it is up 3% to 4% over the buy point? Or should you just pass it up in this kind of market?
A: What you want to avoid doing is buying a stock that has made a solid percentage move already when you enter. Stocks run, they rest and pullback, then they run again. What we don't like to do (though there will always be times when it happens) is buy a stock that then immediatelty turns down on us and pulls back a few sessions before starting back up. We like to catch them as close to the buy point as possible but that does not mean that if we don't catch it just at the buy point we won't buy. We will usually give ourselves a 5% leeway from a solid breakotu point to take a position. That way the stock is not too far gone and overextended and due for a rest just as we get in. This is even more important with option positions that we buy as time is not our friend. You are left in that quandry of being close to a stop point that is usually set under near support and that puts more pressure on your decision process and that is a point where emotion can start to come in. We want to keep that out of the equation as much as possible. Thus good entry points are important.
We are seeing a lot of good stocks in very nice patterns make strong moves. We don't catch them all at the buy point because sometimes we don't like the volume or there is some very choppy action we want to see resolved; when the volume builds or the action starts trending in the direction we want then we can enter. Or the stock blasts off and it does not come back even though we wait for such a pullback during the session. In those situations we have a move we want to get in on but has moved past the buy point. If it has not run too far, and your 3% to 4% is a good rule of thumb, then we can go ahead and get in. There are many times a stock will come back to test a breakout and provide another entry point. In half the situations in a rising market, however, they don't come back. What we can do is take a partial position and then if it does come back, test and hold the breakout, then add to that position. If it does not come back we have to wait for the next logical pullback, usually the first test of the short term moving averages where it will typically bounce.
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
RMHT (RMH Teleservices--$11.45; -0.16; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmht.html
STATUS: Cup. RMHT is moving up the right side of its 8-month base, clearing the 200 day MVA (10.85) a week back and now moving laterally along the 10 day MVA on the lows (11.33) in a very tight range. Volume is very low and below average. Accumulation in the base thus far is solid at 11 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on right volume. We have seen this type of tight lateral moves after the breakouts from these stocks make strong surges with new breakouts.
Volume: 35.93K Avg Volume: 65K
BUY POINT: $12.45 Volume=98K Target=$15.55 Stop=$11.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rmht.html
Play Date: 11/26/2002
TMCS (Ticketmaster--$25.6; -0.66; optionable): Tickets online
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmcs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in the handle of an 8-month base, TMCS tried to make the breakout last week but could not gather in the volume. It has now pulled back to test the 10 day MVA on very low volume Tuesday, and we are watching for it to make another move up, this time on some strong trade. Accumulation in the base is solid at 8 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks. Money flow is strong and ahead of price. Relative strength broke out on the move and is ready for another breakout. We will be patient and let it make the move.
Volume: 339.932K Avg Volume: 823.5K
BUY POINT: $26.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$31.75 Stop=$24.61
POSITION: QMF DX - April $22.50c (73 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tmcs.html
CONTINUING PLAYS TO LOOK AT:
Play Date: 10/30/2002
AVID (Avid Technology--$18.59; -0.41; optionable): Electronics equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Pulling back to the 10 day MVA and showing a doji. Nice lateral move to test the brekaout.
Volume: 431.356K Avg Volume: 264.636K
BUY POINT: New positions: 18.75 (orig. $15.65) Volume=177K Target=$20.45 Stop=$17.35
POSITION: AQI CV - Mar. $12.50c (88 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avid.html
Play Date: 11/13/2002
BER (W.R. Berkley--$38.79; +0.05; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Very nice test of the breakout move, showing a big doji that tested the 10 day MVA on the low and snapped back up. Money flow continues to shoot higher as relative strenght continues higher even as the stock holds steady. Solid action.
Volume: 369K Avg Volume: 286.181K
BUY POINT: New: 39.05 (orig. $38.40). Volume=306K Target=$45 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: BER DG - April $35c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ber.html
Play Date: 10/30/2002
SNDK (Sandisk--$25.8; -0.35; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A very nice, low volume pullback that is testing the huge move from last week. Tuesday SNDK was realtively immune from the selling, holding steady with a doji on very low, below average volume. It may test a bit more toward 25, but it is one that looks ready to hold the move and storm back up on the next up leg in the techs.
Volume: 2.106M Avg Volume: 2.446M
BUY POINT: New: $26.45 (orig. $21.76) Volume=3M Target=$32 (orig. positions $28) Stop=$23.94
POSITION: SWQ DW - April $17.50c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sndk.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 11/01 BO 467.08 -9.87 457.5 485 8.6M 0 458
Testing back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
ACTI 11/23 Test BO 9.07 -0.08 9.28 11.88 310K 165K 8.56
ADI 11/06 Test BO 29.21 -2.06 26.5 32.45 3.4M 5.8M 27.97
APH 11/16 Rv H&S 43.3 -2.21 42.69 49.94 323K 300K 42
ARTI 11/02 Cup 19.87 -0.63 14.85 20 604K 150K 16
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 18.59 -0.41 15.65 20.45 431K 177K 17.35
AVP 11/25 cup hdl 51.89 -0.13 52.94 61 938K 1.8M 50.25
BBOX 11/14 cup hdl 48.17 -1.46 48.45 56 271K 550K 44.94
BER 11/13 cup hdl 38.79 +0.05 38.4 45 369K 306K 37.65
BOBJ 11/25 BO 18.8 -0.64 20.18 24.94 1.1M 1.8M 18.77
BOH 10/26 cup hdl 30.1 -0.36 29.94 36 149K 427K 29.25
BRCM 08/17 Test 50 18.53 -1.47 19.2 19.8 12M 9M 17.25
BRL 10/29 Put 64.92 +2.19 57.35 54 1.3M 750K 59
CDWC 10/31 cup hdl 49.48 -3.18 53.81 62 2.3M 2.8M 51.74
CLE 10/26 Test BO 25.02 +0.02 25.05 30 523K 505K 24
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 25.02 +0.02 22.41 25.94 523K 365K 24.05
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 43.7 -0.02 41.96 48.45 214K 389K 40.95
CREE 11/07 Test BO 22.62 -1.3 19.15 24.45 3.2M 3.9M 19.75
CVD 11/05 Test BO 22.9 -0.24 23.65 28 540K 581K 22.25
DVA 11/02 cup hdl 24.6 -0.3 25.11 30 467K 520K 24.74
ELAB 10/14 BO 23.7 -0.46 23.05 27.65 156K 225K 24.55
ESPD 10/16 cup hdl 14.27 -1.23 12.75 15.3 744K 265K 13.24
EXBD 11/11 cup hdl 32.5 -1.06 34.65 40 264K 528K 32.22
FFIV 11/23 cup hdl 12.94 -1.14 14.54 17.97 714K 750K 13.45
GILD 11/06 BO 36.77 -2.94 38.38 46 3.5M 5.8M 35.85
GRMN 11/06 cup hdl 23.87 -0.22 22.34 26 151K 198K 22.94
HAR 11/21 Test 18 62 -0.15 61.6 70 380K 488K 57.29
HD 09/16 Test 50 25.02 -0.43 34.55 38 14M 10M 32.13
HYSL 11/06 Test BO 27.85 -1.64 28.11 33.75 632K 636K 27.15
IBM 11/11 Test 50 85.06 -1.14 78.45 88 8.6M 12M 80
IMN 11/22 A Wedge 40.73 -1.39 42.41 48 567K 700K 39.44
IMN 11/12 Test BO 40.73 -1.39 41.78 48 567K 700K 39.85
ISIL 11/02 Test 50 17.21 -1.06 18 22 3.9M 3.5M 16.85
ISSX 11/04 BO 24.13 -2.48 22.15 26.5 3.2M 3M 21
JOSB 11/13 Test BO 25.79 -0.07 25.51 30.45 69K 250K 23.35
KLAC 11/05 Test BO 42.77 -1.37 37.86 45 12M 20M 39
KLAC 10/19 BO 42.77 -1.37 33.05 45 12M 1.9M 39
KR 11/09 Put 15.5 +0.09 13.98 12 3.4M 6M 15.01
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 3.33 -0.17 3.22 4.35 88K 145K 3.32
LGTO 11/04 BO 5.17 -0.52 4.65 7.25 1.7M 1.2M 5.05
LUK 11/16 cup hdl 38.87 -0.17 38.51 44.45 68K 125K 37.45
MSFT 11/13 Test BO 56.9 -1.33 56.15 62.55 35M 50M 55
MSFT 10/16 Test BO 56.9 -1.33 52.35 59 35M 50M 55
MSN 11/23 cup hdl 4.2 +0.42 3.98 5.48 496K 150K 3.7
MTB 11/18 Put 79.52 -0.97 78.45 74.22 326K 500K 81.45
MXIM 11/09 Test BO 41.06 -1.86 34.25 45 10M 12M 39.94
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 46.23 -2.04 44.85 51.75 290K 1.1M 44.94
NWRE 11/09 BO 19.16 -1.75 19 22.55 1.1M 900K 17
PCLE 10/17 BO 13.77 -0.28 11.51 13.82 1.4M 800K 12.94
PECS 11/23 cup hdl 36.8 -0.45 36.32 43.65 920K 650K 33.78
PIXR 11/20 BO 57.13 -1.87 57.85 66 427K 775K 53.8
POSS 11/18 Test BO 15.54 -0.46 15.01 18.45 84K 127K 13.75
PPDI 10/19 Test BO 29.09 -1.36 30 35 778K 1.4M 27.9
PVSW 11/23 Cup 4.15 -0.02 4.27 5.35 16K 125K 3.97
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 40.33 -1.57 34.78 42 14M 18M 37.75
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 42.26 -1.81 41.4 50 13M 25M 39
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.5 +0.86 17.35 20.75 633K 225K 16.06
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 17.5 +0.86 13.8 20 633K 300K 16.06
RMHT 11/26 Test BO 11.45 -0.16 12.45 15.55 36K 98K 11.35
ROOM 11/07 Cup 70.11 -1.84 65.25 75 828K 1.2M 65
RYAAY 11/18 Test BO 44.25 -1.75 43.55 50.35 337K 425K 43.94
SFAM 11/02 BO 6.25 -0.21 6.09 9 47K 400K 5.42
SNDK 10/30 cup hdl 25.8 -0.35 21.76 28 2.1M 3M 23.94
STI 11/18 Put 57.78 -1.89 59.49 56 1.5M 1.5M 60.85
SYK 09/23 cup hdl 61.45 -1.88 60.55 69.63 1.4M 1.1M 64.55
SYMC 10/21 Cup 42.98 -1.85 39.35 48 3.5M 5.5M 42.75
TMCS 11/26 Test BO 25.6 -0.66 26.45 31.75 340K 1.2M 24.61
TRB 10/26 Test BO 45.25 -0.95 49.06 56.35 1.2M 1.5M 45.63
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 44.17 -1.17 39.05 46.85 319K 235K 40.55
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 16.43 -0.47 17.65 21.45 133K 295K 16.21
VIP 11/09 Test BO 35 -0.83 30.06 35 448K 285K 32.55
VSEA 11/16 Rv H&S 29.98 -1.32 28.03 33 963K 1.4M 27.94
VZ 11/23 cup hdl 39.84 -1.16 40.45 45 6.6M 11M 37.62
VZ 10/10 Test 50 39.84 -1.16 34.75 42 6.6M 10M 37.35
WEDC 10/19 BO 9.9 -0.13 9.45 12 79K 142K 9.35
WFR 11/14 cup hdl 8.92 +0.07 8.45 11 229K 325K 7.62
YHOO 11/04 BO 18.13 -0.26 17.08 20.55 9.1M 20M 16.45
ZBRA 11/20 BO 63.98 -1.75 66.35 74.75 186K 475K 62
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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