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Begin Part 2 of 2
NEW PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/30/2002
CKFR (Checkfree--$19.59; -0.16; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ckfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming the handle to a 7-month base that shows excellent accumulation at 7 up weeks on rising volume (accumulation) to just 3 down weeks on rising volume (distribution), indicating that there are net buyers of the stock during the base. That typically translates into stronger moves once the stock breaks out of the pattern. Internet stocks have been one of the really strong sectors in the rally; it is still here, it is going to be here, and certain companies will be necessary to conduct/transact business. Look at internet sales in November, up 40% over last year. Money flow is flying ahead of price as it moves laterally, a good sign for stocks during this rally.
Volume: 216.093K Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: $20.45 Volume=1.6M Target=$25.52 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: FCQ EW - May $17.50c (71 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ckfr.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
DMRC (Digimarc--$15.77; -0.18; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dmrc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through an 8-month base sporting excellent accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume (accumulation) to 3 down weeks on rising volume (distribution). The security software sectors is performing very well (a necessary service), and the accumulation in DMRC is indicative of that need. Money flow is very strong in this stock and relative strength is showing a positive divergence, i.e., it is higher at this stock price than it was when the stock was at $20 back in April. Very nice base, and the handle looks good with a test of the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (15.75).
Volume: 33.078K Avg Volume: 65.681K
BUY POINT: $17.01 Volume=100K Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.65
POSITION: DQT EC - May $15c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dmrc.html
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$3.45; -0.04; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through a 8-month base showing outstanding accumulation during the base with 8 up weeks on rising volume to just 1 down week on rising volume; definite buying ongoing as it works toward a breakout. Volume in the handle is predominantly below average just as you want after jumping as the stock rallied to finish the right side of the base. Money flow is well ahead of the price as it moves laterally, and relative strength is showing a positive divergence.
Volume: 44.391K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $3.68 Volume=130K Target=$4.97 Stop=$3.42
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hpol.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
TNB (Thomas & Betts Corp--$18.7; -0.27; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tnb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving through its 7-month base, just breaking over the 200 day MVA (18.15) 5 sessions back and moving laterally over that point since. Volume has declined as it moves laterally consolidating its move, but money flow continues to run higher and higher, an important attribute to stocks that are performing well in this rally. Looking for a strong break higher out of this consolidation.
Volume: 76.1K Avg Volume: 200K
BUY POINT: $19.51 Volume=300K Target=$23.94 Stop=$18.03
POSITION: TNB FW - June $17.50c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tnb.html
Revisited: New looks at current plays
Play Date: 11/30/2002
UNTD (United Online--$15.93; +0.07; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. UNTD was an early leader in the rally. It broke out of a second cup w/handle in early November, and is now moving up the short term MVA as a good breakout should. This is the second test of the 10 day MVA (15.62) since the breakout, and stocks typically give 4 to 5 such bounces before testing lower. This is a good entry point as it is still relatively early in the run.
Volume: 376.764K Avg Volume: 825K
BUY POINT: $16.25 Volume=1M Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.11
POSITION: QAB CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/untd.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
QLGC (Qlogic--$43.44; -0.37; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. A current position, QLGC is forming up a nice continuation pattern, i.e., something of an ascending wedge with a constant high at 45. This is a good pattern for the stock to consolidate its strong move up off of the October low, making higher lows and building upward pressure as it does for an upside breakout. Money flow continues to scream higher ahead of the price as it makes this month-long sidestep to consolidate the prior gains. QLGC is a leader in the storage sector, and it is one of the areas that keeps on growing.
Volume: 3.764M Avg Volume: 17M
BUY POINT: $45.04 Volume=20M Target=$51.45 Stop=$41.89
POSITION: QLC DH - April $40c (65 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 11/06 Test BO 30.69 -0.51 26.5 32.45 1.2M 5.8M 28.74
Current. Gapped over the 200 day Friday but could not hold the move as chips had some profit taking.
ALN 11/09 Test BO 9.55 -0.05 7.28 9.75 122K 200K 8.15
Current. Trying to move up & out of the lateral consolidation above the 10 day MVA. Looks good.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 23.35 -0.73 24.61 29.65 2.6M 10M 22.35
New buy point.
AMZN 10/21 cup hdl 23.35 -0.73 20.32 24.38 2.6M 10M 21.75
Current. Still moving laterally over the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Good consolidation.
ARTI 11/02 Cup 20.5 0 14.85 20 116K 150K 17.65
Current. Struggling a bit at 21 as volume has backed off. May need to come back and test toward 19.
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 19.62 +0.37 15.65 20.45 219K 177K 17.35
Current. Starting the move up out of the lateral consolidation above the 10 day MVA Wednesday and Friday but needs more volume.
AVP 11/25 cup hdl 51.35 -0.65 52.94 61 362K 1.8M 50.25
Buy not hit. Looks like a final shakeout is underway.
BER 11/13 cup hdl 39.5 +0.52 38.4 45 80K 306K 37.65
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA on Friday. Not bad.
BMRN 11/21 BO 8.43 +0.06 7.95 11 171K 750K 7.29
Current. A nice volume breakout last week running a bit out of steam as it shows a doji just below 9. May test back a bit back early this week.
BOBJ 11/25 BO 19.99 +0.23 20.18 24.94 407K 1.8M 18.77
Buy not issued. Tried to make the move Friday but there was not any volume behind it.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 42 +0.1 37.75 45.75 1.3M 3.3M 39
Current. Shot higher on volume Wednesday on news re GDT's stint.
CDWC 10/31 cup hdl 50.97 -0.77 53.81 62 609K 2.8M 51.74
Current. Ran into trouble in the recovery at the 18 day @ 52. Will give it early this week to hold at 50 and make another run at recovering over 52.
CKFR 11/30 cup hdl 19.59 -0.16 20.45 25.52 216K 1.6M 18.94
New.
COH 10/22 cup hdl 34.02 +0.13 30.25 36.35 290K 1.5M 31.55
Current. Still moving higher as the retailers show underlying strength.
CREE 11/07 Test BO 23.67 -0.55 19.15 24.45 821K 3.9M 21.15
Current. Continuing the move up the 10 day MVA though may run into some testing toward 22.50 this week.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 22.42 -0.36 23.65 28 138K 581K 22.25
Current. Not giving us the run we wanted after the promising move two Friday's back. This is where it has to hold.
CYMI 11/26 Test BO 36.33 -1.88 35.35 42.45 878K 2.4M 32.88
Buy not issued. Still in the lateral consolidation over the 200 day on below average volume all last week. Looks good.
DELL 11/04 cup hdl 28.6 -0.43 30.55 36 7.8M 36M 28.41
Current. Still trading above the 50 day MVA at 28.
DMRC 11/30 cup hdl 15.77 -0.18 17.01 20.45 33K 100K 15.65
New.
ECL 10/30 cup hdl 49.67 +0.32 49.11 56.55 163K 1M 47.25
Buy not issued. Struggling to break 50 though showing a big volume spike Wednesday as it tried to get off the 10 day MVA.
EXBD 11/11 cup hdl 33 -0.59 34.65 40 60K 528K 32.22
Current. Nice test of the 18 day MVA and running higher.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 76.75 +0.61 78.25 88 747K 3.2M 72.77
Current. Still working higher.
FOX 11/05 cup hdl 26.66 -0.04 27.15 32.45 1.8M 1.5M 25.25
Current. A very nice recovery from the announcement of the shelf offering, now showing 2 doji's over the 10 day MVA.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 20.3 +0.1 19.64 22.45 204K 586K 18.27
Current. Good move over 20 though volume needs to improve. Another retailer doing well.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 62.4 -0.34 61.6 70 75K 488K 59.85
Current. Still moving up the short term MVA.
HNR 10/17 Test BO 7.38 -0.04 6.38 7.75 49K 288K 6.95
Current. Nice move off the 18 day MVA Wednesday.
HPOL 11/30 cup hdl 3.45 -0.04 3.68 4.97 44K 130K 3.42
New.
HTCH 11/13 BO 27.15 -0.31 26.61 31.75 113K 351K 24.75
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA as it continues to attract a lot of volume. Storage is hot.
HYSL 11/06 Test BO 27.87 -0.57 28.11 33.75 120K 636K 27.15
Current. Still holding at the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to give a bounce here and clear 30.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 86.92 -0.78 78.45 88 3M 12M 82.24
Current. Took some gain last week on the options but it is still moving up the short term MVA. A test of 85 is next.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 37.78 +0.12 38.81 45 59K 300K 35.97
Buy not hit. Looks like a shakeout.
IMN 11/22 A Wedge 41.16 -1.09 42.41 48 127K 700K 39.44
Current. Still working in the lateral range.
JEF 11/25 Rv H&S 44.5 -0.1 45.35 53 65K 300K 42.18
Buy not hit.
KLAC 11/05 Test BO 44.17 -1.63 37.86 45 6.3M 20M 39.88
Current. Hit the 200 day MVA and turned back down Friday.
KLAC 10/19 BO 44.17 -1.63 33.05 45 6.3M 1.9M 39.88
Current.
KRON 11/13 BO 45.43 -0.41 40.12 47.94 99K 450K 41.78
Current. Nice move but needs to test the breakout now toward the 10 day MVA at 43.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 3.11 -0.16 3.22 4.35 78K 145K 3.32
Current. Disappointing move. Decided to hold it Friday given the low volume and see if it can recover.
LMLP 11/23 cup hdl 10.01 0 9.75 12.41 74K 135K 8.82
Current. Big breakout and now a nice lateral, very tight consolidation.
LXK 10/29 cup hdl 66.14 -0.86 61 72 345K 2.2M 62.48
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
MATK 11/26 Test BO 23.16 +0.47 22.25 27.94 166K 300K 20.69
Current. Moving up off the 200 day MVA.
MSN 11/23 cup hdl 4.62 +0.07 4.15 5.68 129K 150K 3.48
Current. Showed a doji Friday after the big breakout. Still in good shape.
MVL 11/04 BO 9 +0.1 8.74 10.75 62K 400K 8.35
Current. Held the 10 day MVA, looking for a move up.
MXIM 11/09 Test BO 42.05 -1.33 34.25 45 3.7M 12M 39.94
Current. Working sideways over the 200 day MVA.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 46.08 -0.56 44.85 51.75 80K 1.1M 44.94
Current. Working in a trading range from 45 to 47.50. Needs to hold the bottom.
NTST 11/14 Test BO 6.88 +0.03 6.75 8.25 30K 100K 5.94
Current. Big move Tuesday and moving laterally the mast two sessions. Good lateral move as the market ran into some resistance.
NVLS 11/19 Test 50 36.29 -1.14 32.26 38 4.1M 12M 33.65
Current. Tested the 200 day MVA Friday on low volume as the chips, being leaders, ran into some resistance.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 13.75 +0.18 13.05 16.15 8.6M 35M 12.45
Current. Holding well, showing a doji above the 10 day MVA.
NXTL 11/12 Test 50 13.75 +0.18 12.15 16.15 8.6M 4.5M 12.45
Current.
NYCB 11/18 Put 27.88 -0.52 27.45 25 562K 950K 28.55
Buy not hit. Looks ready to fall.
OMX 11/18 A Wedge 5.96 -0.07 5.96 7.11 120K 2.1M 5.54
Buy not issued. Still flirting with the breakout, showing some good action Wednesday on volume.
PECS 11/23 cup hdl 37.09 -0.03 36.32 43.65 193K 650K 33.78
Current. Moving laterally after the breakout move. Solid thus far.
PIXR 11/20 BO 57.74 -0.26 57.85 66 101K 775K 55.35
Current. Looking for it to build higher this week after some early week market softness.
PNRA 11/07 cup hdl 37.01 +0.06 34.38 39.75 192K 1.2M 34.12
Current. Great move Wednesday as PNRA continues to work up its 10 day MVA.
POSS 11/18 Test BO 16.18 +0.34 15.01 18.45 49K 127K 14.65
Current. Moving back up off the 10 day MVA.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 28.65 +2.02 25.51 30.55 724K 450K 25.74
Current. Screaming higher again on Friday.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 41.22 -0.49 34.78 42 4.3M 18M 38.14
Current. Still in a good pattern as it rises up the 10 day MVA. Needs to clear 42 but will probably test back toward 40 in general market softness.
QLGC 11/30 A Wedge 43.44 -0.37 45.04 51.45 3.8M 20M 41.89
New buy point. Nice wedge building for another breakout.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 43.44 -0.37 41.4 50 3.8M 25M 39.88
Current.
QLGC 08/17 CCall 43.44 -0.37 36.48 0 3.8M 12M 37
Current.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 19.4 +1.5 17.35 20.75 364K 225K 16.95
Current. Complete turn around as it now races to a new high.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 19.4 +1.5 13.8 20 364K 300K 16.95
Current.
RMHT 11/26 Test BO 11.55 -0.18 12.45 15.55 15K 98K 11.35
New.
SFAM 11/02 BO 6.59 -0.14 6.09 9 128K 400K 5.88
Current. Still working higher up the 10 day MVA, but it is slow going.
SLE 10/26 Test BO 23.33 -0.26 23.11 27.55 993K 3.8M 22.05
Current. Trying to make the break away.
SNDK 10/30 cup hdl 27.75 -0.24 21.76 28 2.3M 3M 24.45
Current. Ran up to 29 and then reversed on the session. Will most likely test toward 26 once again.
TNB 11/30 cup hdl 18.7 -0.27 19.51 23.94 76K 300K 18.03
New.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 15.93 +0.07 16.25 19.65 377K 1M 15.11
New buy point.
UOPX 09/23 cup hdl 35.14 -0.24 35.45 42 64K 262K 33.97
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA Wednesday as it needed to do.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.27 -0.07 17.65 21.45 35K 295K 16.21
Current. Still holding well but looking for a definitive move here.
VRNT 11/23 cup hdl 18.2 +1 15.85 19.15 383K 113K 15
Current. Another strong move.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 18.18 -0.27 19.76 20 2.8M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Testing back to 10 day MVA that should be some support.
VSEA 11/16 Rv H&S 31.1 -0.91 28.03 33 275K 1.4M 27.94
Current. Up to the 200 day MVA on the high and turned back on some chip profit taking.
VZ 11/23 cup hdl 41.88 +0.31 41 45 3.8M 11M 39.35
Current. Another move up Friday, but no real volume. VZ still looks good.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 41.88 +0.31 34.75 42 3.8M 10M 39.35
Current.
WBSN 11/16 BO 26.75 -0.66 24.94 29.94 125K 1.2M 24.25
Moving laterally over 26.
WEDC 10/19 BO 9.72 -0.27 9.45 12 31K 142K 9.35
Current. Ran into trouble again at 10 where it has found trouble the base month.
WFR 11/14 cup hdl 9.12 -0.03 8.45 11 90K 325K 8.12
Current. Continues to rise over the 10 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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