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us stock market, stock trading
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) IMCL: Looking for a good trade.
2) CVH: Low volume rally up to the 200 day looks ripe to roll back down.
3) AVID: Holding up very well.
4) BGEN: Still looking for the bounce.
5) GILD: Ready for a new high.
6) MSN: Holding up very well in the selling.
7) PVSW: Very tight lateral consolidation with a volume spike.
8) WFR: Nice handle has formed in the market selling.
New Plays:
Upside
IMCL (Imclone--$12.9; -0.6; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA (12.35). IMCL has had all the bad news that epitomized the market the past year. Then it rallied off the Ocrober low up over 15 in late November. It has since tested back to the 200 day on lower, below average volume. Monday it tested the 18 day MVA on the low (12.68) as volume edged higher but was still below average. Accumulation is surprisingly solid and money is still flowing into the stock. We are not looking to hold this long term, but looking to make a profit out of it.
Volume: 1.543M Avg Volume: 1.985M
BUY POINT: $14.05 Volume=2.5M Target=$17.25 Stop=$12.56
POSITION: QCI EV - May $12.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imcl.html
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$35.58; -0.62; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming its handle after a break over the 200 day MVA (34.53) in late November, JEC is moving laterally and on lower, below average volume. It is currently in a 6-month base showing oustanding money flow leading the price higher and higher.
Volume: 212.9K Avg Volume: 288.727K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Downside
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$29.19; -0.33; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Put. Low volume recovery after breaking through the 200 day MVA (29.65) in late November, banging its head against the 200 day the past three sessions, showing doji's. The stock rose as the rest of the marekt sold off, so if the market bounces, odds are the 'safe haven' money will leave CVH for another test back down toward the November low. That is all we are looking for, and with the delta/option price combination we can make some nice money on that move.
Volume: 351.6K Avg Volume: 693.045K
BUY POINT: $29.04 Volume=820K Target=$26 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: CVH MF - Jan. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvh.html
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.15; -0.14; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. PFCG tanked below the 200 day MVA (34.75) last Monday and has since rallied up to the 200 day MVA on very low, below average volume. Monday it tapped at the 200 day on the high (34.55) and then closed lower, showing a tight doji on some rising volume. The doji after three moves up off the low indicates the low volume ascent has seen its run. Looking for it to turn over here and move back down to the December low.
Volume: 238.909K Avg Volume: 445.818K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AVID (Avid Technology--$19.36; -0.07; optionable): Consumer electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Lateral consolidation. Still moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (18.35), showing better price/volume action than the market. Held up very very well given the crappy market action.
Volume: 381.967K Avg Volume: 291.227K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=500K Target=$23.65 Stop=$18.05
POSITION: AQI FW - June $17.50c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avid.html
Play Date: 11/25/2002
AVP (Avon Products--$52.25; -0.12; optionable): Cosmetics and personal products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still moving in the handle, holding up very well as volume remains below average. This is the kind of action you like to see. Has that solid accumulation and money flow to back the move. Waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 1.108M Avg Volume: 1.245M
BUY POINT: $52.94 Volume=1.8M Target=$61 Stop=$50.25
POSITION: AVP DJ - April. $50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avp.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
BGEN (Biogen--$42.17; -1.16; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Sold back, but volume was below average and the stock held the 18 day MVA on the close as it has been doing. It handled the selling well and looks ready to bounce and make us some money.
Volume: 2.587M Avg Volume: 3.6M
BUY POINT: $43.94 Volume=4M Target=$51 Stop=$40.86
POSITION: BGQ DH - April $40c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bgen.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
DMRC (Digimarc--$14.76; -0.62; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dmrc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle of the 8-month base. It sold below the 18 day, but held the 20 day MVA on the close as volume remained very low. Money flow is huge. Accumulation is solid at 9 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks.
Volume: 30.246K Avg Volume: 64K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 16.05; Breakout: $17.01 Volume=100K Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.65
POSITION: DQT EC - May $15c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dmrc.html
Play Date: 10/14/2002
ELAB (Eon Labs--$22.9; -0.34; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Back to the 50 day just over 22, ELAB continues to consolidate laterally on very low, below average volume. The stock was a new issue in May, and it is trying to consolidate just below the all time high. What we are looking for here is a strong jump off of this leve and a volume surge. Aggressive just over 23, breakout over 24.38.
Volume: 70.7K Avg Volume: 254.181K
BUY POINT: $23.05 Volume=225K Target=$27.65 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/elab.html
Play Date: 11/06/2002
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$38.3; -0.85; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the big jump off the 50 day MVA last week, GENZ is holding at the 10 day MVA, ready for the next move up over 40 that will take it to a new high. Still looks solid and ready for new positions on stronger volume.
Volume: 2.682M Avg Volume: 3.385M
BUY POINT: $38.38 Volume=5.8M Target=$46 Stop=$36.65
POSITION: GDQ EG - May $35c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gild.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
MSN (Emerson Radio--$4.43; -0.07; no options): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still testing that big move with the lateral consolidation above the 10 day MVA (4.35) as volume remains well below average. This is the kind of consolidation you want to see.
Volume: 65.6K Avg Volume: 146.272K
BUY POINT: $4.85 Volume=150K Target=$6.35 Stop=$4.51
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msn.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
PVSW (Pervasive Software--$4.05; -0.03; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvsw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in that very flat, tight handle holding above the 18 day MVA just over 4. Volume jumped up Monday after being very, very low the prior week. The tight trading range coupled with that low volume could indicate that PVSW is not ready to make the move. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on lower volume.
Volume: 58.6K Avg Volume: 61.136K
BUY POINT: $4.27 Volume=125K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.97
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pvsw.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
SJM (JM Smucker--$38.42; -0.41; optionable): It's got to be good jam. Will it be a good move?
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still holding the 18 day MVA on the breakout test as volume remains well below average as it does. On the low (38.10) it tested the middle 'hump' of the double bottom Monday on the low. Accumulation is solid at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week.
Volume: 162.4K Avg Volume: 298.136K
BUY POINT: $40.15 Volume=476K Target=$48 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: SJM DJ - April $35c (77 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sjm.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
TK (Teekay Shipping--$37.12; -0.06; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (36.44) and rebounded to close basically flat. This continues the good action in the handle of the 6-month base, and we are simply waiting for the stock to show us the breakout move. It held up very well in a market that was bent on selling, completing its pattern with little selling as the rest of the market sold off. That is what you see in stocks that are preparing for the next move higher.
Volume: 65.8K Avg Volume: 148.045K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 37.65. Breakout: $39.25 Volume=235K Target=$46.65 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: TK DG - April $35c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tk.html
Play Date: 11/12/2002
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$17.2; -0.08; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Same action, working laterally along the 10 day MVA at 17 on very low volume. Monday it moved up off the 10 day MVA a bit, but volume started up though still below average. The volume may indicate the 3-week ascending wedge that has formed is ready to give an upside breakout. It has hung well as the market sold, a good attribute and means it is to be watched on the start of the next rally.
Volume: 95K Avg Volume: 164.318K
BUY POINT: $17.65 Volume=295K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Play Date: 11/14/2002
WFR (Memc Electronic--$8.43; -0.33; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WFR is a semiconductor, but it has held up very, very well in the selling, forming a handle right at the top of the cup. Accumulation is super at 9 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks, and money flow is shooting up still. It may be a chip stock, but again, the pullback has been orderly in the handle formation. Volume Monday jumped up as the stock showed a tight doji right on top of the 18 day MVA. That can presage a move up and out of the solid pattern.
Volume: 280.4K Avg Volume: 181.5K
BUY POINT: Breakout: 9.57 (orig. $8.45). Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$8.12
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock trading
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