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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS: In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$19.03; +0.12; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA (18.60). After surging up the short term MVA October through November, CREE needed a test lower, and as usual it tested down to the 50 day MVA when it did. Tuesday it showed a very gith doji with tail as volume moved back above average. A test of the 50 day MVA should be accompanied by a volume surge as buyers move back in. CREE was an early leader, and this could turn out to be an excellent entry point. Want to see the next move up on some more strong volume to jump on board.
Volume: 3.358M Avg Volume: 2.726M
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=4.1M Target=$24.25 Stop=$18.27
POSITION: CVO FW - June $17.50c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cree.html
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$8.06; -0.02; optionable): Memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLSH is performing well. While many chip stocks turned back and plunged to the 50 day MVA in the selling, FLSH continued to hold above the 200 day MVA (7.90), moving laterally the past two weeks. As it does so money flow continues to rise. Accumulation is is solid at 10 accumulation weeks to 8 distribution weeks. Tuesday it showed a tight doji right over the 200 day MVA on rising though still below average volume. It was a good surge. The stock looks ready to make its move after a good test.
Volume: 120.91K Avg Volume: 117.454K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=202K Target=$11 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: FFU DU - April $7.50c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flsh.html
NTAI (Nam Tai Electronics--$24.25; +0.35; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NTAI provided a strong breakout early in the month, and the last week it has moved laterally on lower volume consolidating the move. Accumulation leading up to the breakout of the 6-month base was solid at 6 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. It is a sign of strength that the stock has consolidated its move while holding onto its gains. Looking for a continued move up out of the consolidation.
Volume: 38.799K Avg Volume: 73.772K
BUY POINT: $24.85 Volume=175K Target=$28.75 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QNA FX - June $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntai.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
$OEX (S&P 100 options--$460.49; +6.50; optionable): S&P 100
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$oex.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Volume was not huge as the SP100 moved of its 50 day, but we issued an alert entering some positions in the last hour of trading, and the index moved up smartly. We are looking at taking additional positions on a furthe rmove up if there is some volume in the indexes.
Volume: 1.248M Avg Volume: 1.55M
BUY POINT: $466.74 Volume=1.5M Target=$486 Stop=$455.45
POSITION: OXB AM - January $465c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/$oex.html
Play Date: 12/05/2002
AME (Ametek--$37.39; +0.67; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ame.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving up off the 18 day MVA (36.85) on rising, above average volume. Again, there is some resistance at 38, so we want to see the move over that level on strong volume.
Volume: 142.5K Avg Volume: 136.5K
BUY POINT: $38.71 Volume=225K Target=$46.45 Stop=$36
POSITION: AME FG - June $35c (73 delta, no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ame.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
ATRS (Altiris--$13.36; +0.51; no options): Altiris
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrs.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still moving in the wedge, rising Tuesday on continued below average volume. Moving toward the breakout, so we sit back and let it happen if it will. With good accumulation at 9 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks, looks ready to make that move.
Volume: 89.2K Avg Volume: 138.409K
BUY POINT: $14.05 Volume=200K Target=$18 Stop=$19.96
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atrs.html
Play Date: 12/05/2002
CPHD (Cepheid--$5.92; -0.05; no options): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CPHD continues to move in the test of the breakout, still moving laterally above the 10 December 2002 (5.79) on below average volume. Money flow remains strong and accumulation is positive. Now we are just waiting for the volume to flow back in.
Volume: 160.518K Avg Volume: 296.59K
BUY POINT: $6.35 Volume=500K Target=$8.32 Stop=$5.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cphd.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
GENZ (Genzyme--$33.55; +0.68; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. GENZ has made a periodic test of the 18 day MVA at 32.35 on lower, below average volume. Tuesday it started back up but volume did not come in yet. Still looks solid. Waiting for the breakout on some volume.
Volume: 2.371M Avg Volume: 3.722M
BUY POINT: $35.15 Volume=5.2M Target=$41.94 Stop=$31.21
POSITION: GZQ DF - April $30c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
OVTI (Omnivision Technologies--$17.57; +0.99; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovti.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Started the move back up Tuesday after taking a breather Monday. Volume was lower though still above average. Money flow is leaping up ahead of the move and accumulation is excellent at 8 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks. All it needs is a bit more volume.
Volume: 1.131M Avg Volume: 780.045K
BUY POINT: $18.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$22.35 Stop=$16
POSITION: UCM FC - June $15c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ovti.html
Play Date: 11/14/2002
PPD (Pre-Paid Legal--$29.14; +1.24; optionable): Legal services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppd.html
STATUS: Starting the move up after the test of the 10 day MVA as volume jumped up back to above average. Very strong move and still a buy on this resumption of the move higher.
Volume: 512.4K Avg Volume: 440.272K
BUY POINT: New: 29.35; orig. $25.51 Volume=450K Target=$30.55 Stop=$25.74
POSITION: PPD EX - May $22.50c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppd.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
RHD (RH Donnelley--$28.34; +0.43; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still moving in the handle of the 7-month base, holding at the 18 day MVA just over 28. Tuesday RHD started higher on rising though still below average volume. Looks as if it is starting the move up the handle with money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 115.2K Avg Volume: 152.636K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 28.65. Breakout: $30.17 Volume=267K Target=$25.94 Stop=$28.06
POSITION: RHD EE - May $25c (80 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rhd.html
Play Date: 11/14/2002
WFR (Memc Electronic--$9.29; +0.86; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting up in the handle of the 8-month base though volume did not move up with the price. Relative strength broke out ahead of the stock, a bullish sign. Now all it needs is some volume to send it off.
Volume: 117.6K Avg Volume: 184.136K
BUY POINT: New: $9.57 (orig. $8.45). Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$8.12
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/02/2002
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$34.2; +1.25; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup. EXPE continues to form the handle to its 6.5 month base, holding above support at 70 as volume continues to move below average. Money flow continues to move up ahead of the stock price and the base is supported by solid accumulation at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 1.307M Avg Volume: 538.09K
BUY POINT: New: 73.25 with much stronger volume. Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3.2M Target=$88 (orig. positions 84) Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 10/29/2002
FRX (Forest Labs--$93.11; -2.89; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 12-16-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-18-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $135. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-23-98 at a stock price of $62. The annuals shareholder meeting was on 8-8-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: FRX is struggling below the 50 day MVA, turning and falling further Tuesday on rising volume. No time to be in it now until the stock works through these problems. It will have to form up once again before we get into it again.
Volume: 5.228M Avg Volume: 2.029M
BUY POINT: No new positions at this point.
POSITION: FHA BS - Feb. $95c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
Play Date: 11/02/2002
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$68.7; +5.2; no options): Technical and system software. Forecast to announce a split on 1-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon INFY's annual report the company has had a 2 for 1 stock splits in 1998, 1999 & 2000.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Breaking below the 200 day MVA on a strong surge of above average volume. Not the best action. Money flow has taken a turn for the worse, heading sharply lower. Not the recovery we wanted, and will have to let it form up.
Volume: 384.919K Avg Volume: 154.363K
BUY POINT: No new positions right now. Volume=165K Target=$83.65 Stop= $76.48
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$53.58; +1.33; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a quick test of the 10 day MVA Monday, WFMI started up toward a new high Tuesday. Volume did not follow it up, but it is making higher lows with a constant high at 54. Looking ready for a breakout and if the volume flows we are looking at more positions. Very good looking pattern.
Volume: 442.199K Avg Volume: 657.318K
BUY POINT: New: 53.95 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
POST-SPLIT
ALLY (Alliance Gaming--$18.01; +0.46; optionable): Gaming equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ally.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting the move up in its 7-week cup w/handle base. Accumulation in the short base is positive at 2 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week, and 10 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks in the prior base. Volume was strong and above average on the move. Looks as if ALLY is ready to make the move.
Volume: 676.596K Avg Volume: 641K
BUY POINT: New: 18.12 (orig. $17.75). Volume=968K Target=$21.35 Stop=$16.51
POSITION: AQL DC - April $15c (51 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ally.html
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co.--$41.7; +1.1; optionable): Financial management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Started up on some rising, average volume in the handle of its 7-month base. Looks very good here.
Volume: 406K Avg Volume: 366.5K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 43.05. Breakout: $44.51 Volume=575K Target=$48 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: FIC DH - April $40c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fic.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$35.8; +0.22; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in a very tight handle to its 7-month base, holding above the 10 day MVA as it does (35.65). Volume jumped higher Tuesday, coming in above average. Very solid accumulation and money flow continues to work higher ahead of the stock.
Volume: 321.7K Avg Volume: 288.136K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$36.1; +0.75; optionable): Education on the net
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still rising up the 18 day MVA, moving off that level Tuesday on rising, almost average volume. UOPX has been volatile, but it has the look of bracing for a stronger move to the upside. Money flow is running higher ahead of the price.
Volume: 226.29K Avg Volume: 216.045K
BUY POINT: $36.74 Volume=278K Target=$42 Stop=$34.17
POSITION: UBY CF - June $35c (56 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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