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Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) MERQ: Soldi volume starting the move back up.
2) SCSS: Nice lateral consolidation of the breakout.
3) AFCO: Held up well, ready to move.
4) AVID: Very stingy with its gains.
5) CREE: Can run when it gets started.
6) JEC: Beautiful handle.
7) UTHR: Moving on volume now.
8) CVH: Ready to fall.
New Plays:
Downside:
ANT (Anteon Intl.--$22.64; +0.29; optionable): Information technology services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ant.html
STATUS: Put. ANT did not partake in the November rally, and when it did start up it failed at the 50 day (23.70). Monday it tanked on high volume down from the 50 day, and the past two sessions it made a small, low volume recovery up to the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday high (23.15) before it sold back. Looking for ANT to continue the downtrend here.
Volume: 68.2K Avg Volume: 254.136K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $22.45. Breakdown: 19.98. Volume=200K Target=$20 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ANT ME - Jan. $25p (-64 delta, low OI) or ANT PX - April $22.50p (-40 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ant.html
Upside:
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$31.18; +1.38; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MERQ blew over its 200 day MVA (28.96) in November and then came back to test that level this month in the general market pullback. Now we said we saw some stocks already starting up ahead of the rest of the market, and after MERQ spent three sessions at the 200 day it jumped up Wednesday on some rising volume. Still a bit below average, but a good start to the move. Combine that with some good accumulation as it worked through its base (9 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks) and it looks like at least a good trade up to the target. That will put some good change in the pocket.
Volume: 3.697M Avg Volume: 3.892M
BUY POINT: $31.55 Volume=5M Target=$38 Stop=$28.85
POSITION: RQB DF - April $30c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/merq.html
PKTR (Packeteer--$7.96; +0.36; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pktr.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (7.50). PKTR formed a June to October double bottom and broke out big time in November. It is now giving the first real test of the big move, coming back to the 18 day MVA, the usual holding point for a breakout test from a solid breakout. Wednesday it started at the 18 day and then shot higher on strong, above average volume. Accumulation since May (through the base) is outstanding at 9 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks. Looking for a nice run here.
Volume: 337.6K Avg Volume: 195K
BUY POINT: $8.34 Volume=335K Target=$10.55 Stop=$7.55
POSITION: XOU EU - May $7.50c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pktr.html
SCSS (Select Comfort--$9.56; +0.21; no options): Air beds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SCSS broke out of its 4-month base in early October, rallied up the short term MVA as usual, then tested the 50 day MVA (8.05) in November. It blasted off that level and is now making its first test of the short term MVA's again. This is the pattern strong stocks use: breakout, run up thte short term MVA 4 or so times, then test the 50 day MVA, then back up to do it again. This is the first test of the short term MVA, and we are looking at getting in on the move off of this level. Money flow is already leading the way higher.
Volume: 273.21K Avg Volume: 487.545K
BUY POINT: $9.85 Volume=545K Target=$12 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scss.html
Upside
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/10/2002
ADTN (Adtran--$32.66; +1.21; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (30.75). Made the move Wednesday, though volume could have been higher. Still a buy at this point, preferably on stronger volume. Accumulation is solid at 8 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks, and money flow is running up right now before the stock makes its turn off the 18 day MVA, a bullish signal.
Volume: 419.803K Avg Volume: 520.863K
BUY POINT: New: $32.75 (orig. $32.05) Volume=800K Target=$38.45 Stop=$29.81
POSITION: RQA EF - May $30c (64 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adtn.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AFCO (Applied Films--$18.94; +0.19; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AFCO blasted over the 200 day MVA (16) in late October, rallied, and now is testing the 18 day MVA at 18. Good action, holding the gap up point. Now we just wait for the test to end and AFCO to make a strong volume move to clear the near resistance.
Volume: 110.357K Avg Volume: 167.863K
BUY POINT: $20.85 Volume=225K Target=$25 Stop=$18.79
POSITION: UOF DW - April $17.50c (55 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afco.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AVID (Avid Technology--$19.33; +0.33; optionable): Consumer electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Lateral consolidation. Same tight, lateral move over the 18 day MVA (18.60, tested on the intraday low) that it is using to consolidate the gains off of the October low. It is refusing to give up any gains, a very bullish sign. It is waiting for the next bit of good news to break it higher.
Volume: 168.1K Avg Volume: 299K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=500K Target=$23.65 Stop=$18.05
POSITION: AQI FW - June $17.50c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avid.html
Play Date: 12/10/2002
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$19.22; +0.19; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA (18.60). Still holding at the 18 day MVA, trying to martial itself for the rebound in this pullback after the strong October/November rally. It is also holding above support at 18 on this test. CREE was an early leader, and this could turn out to be an excellent entry point. Want to see the next move up on some more strong volume to jump on board.
Volume: 2.388M Avg Volume: 2.757M
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=4.1M Target=$24.25 Stop=$18.27
POSITION: CVO FW - June $17.50c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cree.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
DMRC (Digimarc--$15.53; +0.29; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dmrc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still moving in the handle of the 8-month base. Wednesday is showed a volume spike of sorts up towar average after a week of very low trade. Volume spikes after a consdoliation often indicate a move is coming. Money flow is way out in front still and accumulation is solid at 9 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks.
Volume: 56.348K Avg Volume: 61.681K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 16.05; Breakout: $17.01 Volume=100K Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.65
POSITION: DQT EC - May $15c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dmrc.html
Play Date: 12/05/2002
ICOS (Icos Corp.--$29.45; -0.28; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icos.html
STATUS: Testing the Breakout. ICOS continues to trade right on top of the 18 day MVA, closing right on the button with a very tight doji as volume turned higher. This move follows a breakout in late November. Looks ready for the move back up.
Volume: 781.239K Avg Volume: 1.009M
BUY POINT: $31.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$38 Stop=$29.25
POSITION: IIQ DF - April $30c (60 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icos.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$35.85; +0.05; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice handle ongoing, showing a tight doji that tapped the 10 day MVA on the session low (35.45) and then snapped back up. Volume has been edging higher as money flow continues to move up ahead of the price as it moves laterally and shakes out the last sellers.
Volume: 239.1K Avg Volume: 290.136K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
MSFT (Microsoft--$54.66; +0.65; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. MSFT is testing the 50 day MVA (54), starting up Wednesday on some rising though still below average volume. Money flow is turning back up as well. Some resistance at the early November high, and that is why the buy point is just beyond that resistance; we want to see it breakout over that level on strong volume.
Volume: 34.662M Avg Volume: 43.97M
BUY POINT: $56.61 Volume=67M Target=$62.75 Stop=$54.45
POSITION: MSQ DK - April $55c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msft.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
MSN (Emerson Radio--$4.42; +0.12; no options): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting to move up off the 18 day MVA (4.35) on a nice, low volume test. Volume has not started to follow yet. We want to see some more volume on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 67.2K Avg Volume: 138.545K
BUY POINT: $4.85 Volume=150K Target=$6.35 Stop=$4.51
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msn.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
PVSW (Pervasive Software--$4.05; -0.01; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvsw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Incredibly tight trading range the past week, holding just over the 18 day MVA on the close. Volume picked up the pace Monday and Tuesday, but then back off again Wednesday. Such a tight range typically indicates a major move coming. Looks as if it will be to the upside, but we want to be sure and see it make the move. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on lower volume.
Volume: 9.6K Avg Volume: 62.045K
BUY POINT: $4.27 Volume=125K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.97
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pvsw.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
SJM (JM Smucker--$38.95; +0.15; optionable): It's got to be good jam. Will it be a good move?
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. No change. Tried to make a move off the 18 day MVA with a gap higher, but still in the range on below average volume. Still solid. Being pateint. Accumulation is solid at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week.
Volume: 189K Avg Volume: 295.727K
BUY POINT: $40.15 Volume=476K Target=$48 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: SJM DJ - April $35c (77 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sjm.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
TK (Teekay Shipping--$37.39; -0.26; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Little changed, still working through the handle just over the 18 day MVA at 36.50. Again, it held up very well in a market that was bent on selling, completing its pattern with little selling as the rest of the market sold off. We just have to wait for the move.
Volume: 47.1K Avg Volume: 146.409K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 37.65. Breakout: $39.25 Volume=235K Target=$46.65 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: TK DG - April $35c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tk.html
Play Date: 11/12/2002
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$17.47; +0.59; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The 12-week base looks like it is about to end. UTHR has moved laterally the past three weeks, forming the lateral handle on low volume, a move that shakes out the last sellers and clears the way for the upside move. Wednesday it jumped off the 18 day MVA on strong, above average volume. Looks ready to start the next move. We will be ready as well.
Volume: 206.997K Avg Volume: 165.863K
BUY POINT: $17.65 Volume=295K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/09/2002
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$29.7; +0.28; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Put. Testing the 200 day MVA (29.70). Banging its head at that level the past 6 sessions, uanble to hold a move over it. Volume has trailed off lower and lower. Price resistance as well at 30. Again, if the market bounces and money rotates back into technology et al, CVH may lose what little support it has.
Volume: 378K Avg Volume: 692.727K
BUY POINT: $29.04 Volume=820K Target=$26 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: CVH MF - Jan. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvh.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.48; -0.27; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to make a move Tuesday, clearing the 200 day MVA (34.58) as volume moved higher but was still below average. Wednesday it was right back down below the 200 day. Looking for the stock to crack open wider to the downside, and want to see more volume as it does.
Volume: 276.696K Avg Volume: 440.318K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
End Part 2 of 3
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