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Begin Part 3 of 3
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/09/2002
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$33.9; -0.1; optionable): Air delivery & freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. EXPD is showing some big upside volume spikes the past two weeks as the stock moves laterally below 34 and climbs the 10 day MVA (33.60). It is marching up the short term MVA after making its breakout in mid-November. These volume spikes are what we call 'get ready' spikes, meaning that the stock is under accumulation as it continues its lateral move. Looking for a big breakout here. This is another example of the economic recovery showing up in economically sensitive stocks; EXPD has rallied well, but is now preparing to rally again. That indicates stocks appear ready to price in more economic recovery.
Volume: 1.284M Avg Volume: 610K
BUY POINT: $32.08 Volume=750K Target=$38 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP BF - Feb. $30c (62 delta) or URP EF - May $30c (62 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$36.12; 0; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very solid as JEC continues to work laterally over the 10 day MVA (35.75) in the handle to its 7-month base. Money flow continues to move up as the stock trades sideways on lower and lower volume. Very promising pattern, and we are waiting for that breakout.
Volume: 170.9K Avg Volume: 290.227K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 11/09/2002
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$38.75; -0.05; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. As with many stocks, TEVA moved up well in November, and is now moving laterally over the 18 day MVA at 38.35. Volume is predominantly below average on the move as it repeatedly tests 38 on the low and rebounds to close over the 10 and 18 day MVA. Very solid, tight trading range indicative of few sellers as the stock moves laterally. Waiting for a strong volume move out of this trading range to enter new positions.
Volume: 1.188M Avg Volume: 1.8M
BUY POINT: New: $39.35 (orig. $36.85) Volume=2M Target=$42.51 Stop=$37.35
POSITION: TVQ CU - Mar. 37.50c (62 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/teva.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 12/07 Test 50 451.81 -6.73 466.74 486 7.8M 1.5M 455.45
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on the low. Debated exiting, but anticipating a bounce at this point.
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 309.27 -11.96 335.15 385 3.3M 0 313.94
Current. Downgrades hurt chips, but they did not undercut their recent lows, one of the few indexes not to do so.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 9.9 +0.31 9.86 11.85 419K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 9.9 +0.31 7.28 9.75 419K 200K 8.94
Current. Another solid, above average volume move.
AME 12/05 DB hdl 36.89 -1.15 38.71 46.45 67K 225K 36
Buy Not Hit.
AMLN 12/12 A Wedge 17.85 -0.2 18.75 22.75 410K 750K 17.25
Buy not hit. Still looks solid in the nice wedge.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 22.18 -0.12 22.85 29.65 3.9M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 cup hdl 22.18 -0.12 20.32 24.38 3.9M 10M 21.75
Current. Still banging its head at the 18 day MVA, but holding up very well.
ANT 12/11 Put 22.6 +0.57 22.45 20 94K 200K 23.55
Buy Not Issued. Looks ready to fall once more.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 13 -0.06 14.05 18 167K 200K 13.07
Buy Not Hit. Nice pattern still.
BEIQ 12/14 Test 50 14.25 -0.05 15.06 18 5.1K 55K 13.94
New.
BGEN 12/07 Test 18 40.58 -1.95 43.94 51 2.2M 4M 40.86
Buy Not Hit. Not doing it, falling below the 18 day MVA.
BMRN 11/21 BO 7.74 -0.14 7.95 11 119K 750K 7.29
Current. Still looks good, holding 7.50 again on an intraday test of that level.
BRCM 11/16 CCall 16.23 -0.18 15.9 20 8M 15M 14.79
Current. Holding at the 50 day MVA still.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 31.41 -0.49 32.07 39.25 284K 900K 29.83
Buy not hit. Working laterally just below the breakout point on very low volume.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 41.75 -0.45 37.75 45.75 1.2M 3.3M 40.55
Current. A leader making a nice test of the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
CHS 10/15 Dbl btm 21.11 -0.7 19.35 23.25 501K 1.9M 20.85
Current. Struggling here at the 18 day, but holding support at 21 for now.
CLE 12/04 A Wedge 23.69 -0.43 26.05 31 190K 505K 23.85
Exited on the move below the 50 day MVA.
CLE 10/26 Test BO 23.69 -0.43 25.05 30 190K 505K 24
Exited.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 46.61 -0.83 41.96 48.45 204K 389K 43.84
Current. Took a breather after three strong sessions off the 18 day MVA.
CPHD 12/05 Test BO 5.84 -0.33 6.35 8.32 1.3M 500K 5.52
Current. Reversed on some heavy volume. At the 10 day MVA, but needs to hold.
CPWM 11/02 cup hdl 30.45 -0.78 30.36 36 254K 471K 29.45
Current. Held the 50 day MVA again. It bounces or we bounce it.
CREE 12/10 Test 50 19.14 -0.51 19.65 24.25 1.8M 4.1M 18.27
Current. Very solid action given the selling and chip downgrades, testing the 50 day MVA on the low on lower volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 23.7 -0.36 23.65 28 218K 581K 22.25
Current. Nice, lower volume test of the 10 day MVA after the nice move up the prior 5 sessions. Good action.
DELL 11/04 cup hdl 26.63 -0.8 30.55 36 23M 36M 28.41
Exited.
EXPD 11/09 cup hdl 33.9 -0.1 32.08 38 1.3M 750K 32.45
Current. Looking for more.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 67.39 -3.88 78.25 88 2.8M 3.2M 72.77
Current. Struggling mightily, falling to the 50 day MVA on rising, average volume. Must hold here.
FAST 12/14 cup hdl 37.83 -0.03 38.55 43 1M 995K 35.85
New.
FIC 12/07 DB hdl 41.4 -0.6 44.51 48 319K 575K 40.55
Buy Not Hit. Holding steady at the 18 day MVA.
FNF 11/26 Test BO 32.4 +0.45 33.25 38.25 576K 875K 30.92
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA on some big volume and is starting back up.
GENZ 11/30 Test BO 32.28 -1.42 35.15 41.94 2.3M 5.2M 31.21
Current. Turned to close below the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume. Some support here at 32.
GGG 12/05 cup hdl 29.1 -0.66 30.37 36.45 77K 180K 28.45
Buy Not Hit. Testing the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Still in the pattern.
GTK 10/31 cup hdl 26.71 -0.66 26.15 30 753K 900K 24.32
Current. Took a breather after Thursday's big move.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 18.85 -0.91 19.64 22.45 300K 586K 18.27
Current. could not sustain the move and fell to the 50 day MVA on the close. Has to bounce here, but GYMB's pattern is to test the 50 day MVA every 4 weeks, and it is right on schedule.
IDXC 12/02 cup hdl 17.27 -0.32 17.65 21.25 224K 163K 16.35
Current. Testing back on lower volume after the big breakout, holding above support at 17.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 41.09 -0.75 38.81 45 420K 300K 39.25
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA on the Friday low and bounced back.
JEC 12/09 cup hdl 36.12 0 36.75 42 171K 465K 34.18
Buy Not Hit. Very nice pattern.
KRON 11/13 BO 41.18 -1.19 40.12 47.94 332K 450K 41.78
Exited.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 3.02 -0.06 3.22 4.35 47K 145K 3.32
Current. Doji that tested the 50 day MVA on the high coupled w/low volume. Looks like a last chance before it falls again. If does not clear 3.20 on the close prudence says to exit.
LXK 10/29 cup hdl 61.93 -1.07 61 72 3.8M 2.2M 62.48
Current. Gapped down to the 50 day MVA, not giving us much to work with. It bounced up off that level, cutting its session losses. Now will see if it can get over 63 early this week. If it cannot we will exit.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 23.37 +2.85 23.39 27.94 929K 300K 21.45
Buy Not Issued. Massive volume recovery Friday after a quick 50 day MVA test. Looks ready for positions on a continued move.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 57.34 +0.18 59.15 67 5.4M 9.5M 56.65
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 52.5 -1.67 56.61 62.75 33M 67M 54.45
Current. Breaking down. Debated closing it Friday, but some support at 52 that could bounce it for a better exit point.
MSTR 11/18 BO 15.75 -0.73 18.45 21 204K 550K 17.65
Current. Another one on the bubble Friday. Did not undercut recent lows at 15.40. If cannot bounce we will exit.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 44.28 -1.11 44.85 51.75 313K 1.1M 44.05
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on continued below average volume.
NTAI 12/10 Test BO 27.2 +0.25 24.85 28.75 280K 175K 24.25
Current. Up again Friday, but took a breather after the huge move.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.07 -0.33 13.05 16.15 18M 35M 11.35
Current. Nice consolidation right over the 50 day MVA.
NXTL 11/12 Test 50 12.07 -0.33 12.15 16.15 18M 4.5M 11.35
Current.
OLOG 11/16 cup hdl 21.92 -0.18 23.25 27.94 61K 229K 21.62
Buy Not Hit.
OVTI 12/07 Test BO 17.04 -1.73 18.45 22.35 1.1M 1.2M 16
Current. Turned and fell harder Friday, closing below the 10 day MVA. Volume slid lower. Don't like the action, but if it checks up at 16.25 over the 18 day MVA and rallies again that is fine.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.68 -0.96 16.55 14 196K 300K 17.65
New.
PIXR 11/20 BO 60.18 +0.68 57.85 66 800K 775K 57.65
Current. Nice move Friday on volume, and it looks as if it is ready to go again.
PNRA 11/07 cup hdl 36.61 +0.3 34.38 39.75 360K 1.2M 34.12
Current. Had a decent week, rising off the 18 day MVA, but needs more volume to clear the recent high at 38.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 27.2 -0.7 25.51 30.55 488K 450K 26.25
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and then recovered to hold that level. Higher volume is an alert, but this is an early leader and we will give is some room.
PSUN 12/05 BO 27.8 -0.5 28.05 33 689K 1.5M 25.95
Current. Took a day off after the back to back strong moves.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.61 -0.9 40.85 50 13M 18M 37.99
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.61 -0.9 34.78 42 13M 18M 38.14
Current. Still above the 50 day MVA. Looking for that level to hold as it is also at the October high.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.93 -0.11 41.4 50 13M 25M 39.88
Down to test the simple 50 day MVA.
REGN 12/11 Test BO 20.54 -0.9 22.02 26.35 196K 450K 20.24
Buy Not Hit. Still working through the nice wedge that is testing the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA on the low.
RHD 11/30 cup hdl 28.05 -1.02 30.17 25.94 47K 267K 28.06
Buy Not Hit. Tried to start the move Wednesday, but ran out of steam and fell back to support at 28 on Friday.
ROOM 11/07 Cup 59.45 -3.21 65.25 75 915K 1.2M 67.25
Exited.
ROST 12/12 Test 50 44.52 -0.07 45.85 52.75 1.2M 1.6M 42.64
Buy not hit. Holding the 18 day MVA.
SCIO 12/03 cup hdl 32.74 -0.32 33.05 39.65 496K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued. Looks ready for a better move.
SCSS 12/11 Test 18 9.78 +0.02 9.85 12 268K 545K 8.97
Buy Not Hit. Tapped the 10 day MVA and recovered. Looks ready for much more.
TEVA 11/09 Test BO 38.75 -0.05 36.85 42.51 1.2M 1.8M 37.35
Current. Looking for more after this lateral move.
THO 11/14 A Wedge 37 -1.53 36.65 44 88K 175K 35.93
Current. Fell thru the 18 day MVA. Needs to hold at 36.
TMCS 11/26 Test BO 21.54 -0.97 26.45 31.75 647K 1.2M 24.61
Current. Broke through the 50 day MVA and held the 50 day MVA.
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 41.17 -0.37 45.44 51.44 228K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 41.17 -0.37 39.05 46.85 228K 235K 42.05
Current. Edging lower on below average volume, but we will give it room as it is a leader and still above support at 40.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.99 0 16.25 19.65 739K 1M 15.11
Current. Doji at 17 where it stalled in late December. Holding up very well in the market and may move on up from here on a return of buyers. Otherwise a test of 16 is not bad (10 day MVA).
UOPX 12/07 Test BO 35.26 -1.73 36.74 42 270K 278K 34.17
Current. Raced to 38 on the high but then reversed and gave back all of Thursday's great move as volume moved to above average levels. UOPX is as wild as the March wind. Needs to hold here.
VRNT 11/23 cup hdl 17.41 -1.02 15.85 19.15 142K 113K 15.75
Current. Needs to hold the 18 day MVA at 16.75 this week.
WERN 11/30 cup hdl 21.43 +0.11 22.75 27.35 303K 550K 21.16
Buy Not Hit.
WFMI 12/14 Test BO 53.22 +0.41 53.65 64 748K 975K 51.35
New buy point.
WFMI 10/28 cup hdl 53.22 +0.41 50.11 57.51 748K 975K 49.94
Current. Ready for more.
WFR 11/14 cup hdl 8.6 -0.35 8.45 11 104K 325K 8.12
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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