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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 3 of 3
Play Date: 11/20/2002
PIXR (Pixar--$60.18; +0.68; optionable): Toy Story; Monsters, Inc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Breakout. PIXR jumped to a new high Friday on very strong volume after a lower volume lateral consolidation the past two weeks. Solid volume and a good add-to point.
Volume: 800.153K Avg Volume: 500K
BUY POINT: New: $60.25 (orig. $57.85) Volume=775K Target=$66 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: PQJ KD - April $55c (61 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
PVSW (Pervasive Software--$4.05; -0.01; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvsw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the very tight handle, spiking higher Friday but unable to hold the move. Looking for that strong breakout. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on lower volume. Just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 23.5K Avg Volume: 62.045K
BUY POINT: $4.27 Volume=125K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.97
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pvsw.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$35.03; -0.35; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice handle that is in a tight range and holding above the 10 day MVA on the closes (13). Again, it may pull back to the 18 day MVA (12.70) before making the breakout move, but the pattern is good. Accumulation is excellent at 12 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks.
Volume: 660.274K Avg Volume: 165.09K
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=255K Target=$16.98 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
SCSS (Select Comfort--$9.78; +0.02; no options): Air beds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. SCSS continues to move in the ascending wedge pattern that follows on the heels of an October cup w/handle breakout. Very nice consolidation pattern on the heels of the breakout. We like to see ascending wedges in continuing upside trends as it is a bullish pattern that shows continued upside bias. Looking for the strong, above average volume breakout.
Volume: 267.934K Avg Volume: 475K
BUY POINT: $9.85 Volume=545K Target=$12 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scss.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
TK (Teekay Shipping--$37.99; +0.49; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting up in the handle of its base, moving off the 10 day MVA Friday on rising, though still below average volume. Very good accumulation, very good money flow already shooting up ahead.
Volume: 103.1K Avg Volume: 146.409K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 37.65. Breakout: $39.25 Volume=235K Target=$46.65 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: TK DG - April $35c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tk.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
VZ (Verizon Communications--$38.7; +0.3; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vz.html
STATUS: 200 day MVA test. VZ is showing signs its pullback is over, flexing its muscles at the 200 day. Friday it tried to make its move over the short term MVA, hitting 39.49 on the high as volume started up. Looks ready to give us the entry point.
Volume: 5.792M Avg Volume: 8.2M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $39.85. Next: $41 Volume=11M Target=$47.5 Stop=$38.13
POSITION: VZ DU - April $37.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vz.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/11/2002
ANT (Anteon Intl.--$22.6; +0.57; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ant.html
STATUS: Put. We did not enter into ANT last week, letting it rise up to complete the test of the break of the 50 day MVA up near 23.75. We wanted to see if it would return to that level, but it did not, holding below the 18 day MVA near 23. Friday it made one more attempt, but it could not clear even the 10 day MVA, rallying on much lower volume than on the selling sessions. Looks like a last gasp attempt and is now ready to fall
Volume: 94.4K Avg Volume: 300K
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=200K Target=$20 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ANT ME - Jan. $25p (-64 delta, low OI) or ANT PX - April $22.50p (-40 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ant.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$28.9; -0.41; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Put. Testing the 200 day MVA. Trying to get over the 200 day just below 30 as volume backs off lower and lower. Looks ready to make its rollover.
Volume: 279.1K Avg Volume: 692.727K
BUY POINT: New: $28.74 Volume=820K Target=$26 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: CVH MF - Jan. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvh.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.62; +0.08; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Another doji at the 200 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Looks ready to roll back over after the low volume move up to resistance following the dump lower in early December.
Volume: 225.372K Avg Volume: 440.318K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $34.35; then $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 12/07 Test 50 451.81 -6.73 466.74 486 7.8M 1.5M 455.45
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on the low. Debated exiting, but anticipating a bounce at this point.
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 309.27 -11.96 335.15 385 3.3M 0 313.94
Current. Downgrades hurt chips, but they did not undercut their recent lows, one of the few indexes not to do so.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 31.56 -0.83 32.05 38.45 253K 800K 30.35
Current. Holding at the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still solid.
AFCO 12/07 Test BO 18.7 -0.05 20.85 25 75K 225K 18.79
Buy Not Hit.
ANT 12/11 Put 22.6 +0.57 22.45 20 94K 200K 23.55
Buy Not Issued. Looks ready to fall once more.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 18.85 -0.15 19.65 23.65 173K 500K 18.05
Buy Not Hit. Tight doji testing the 18 day MVA on low volume. Looks like a shakeout before the move.
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 18.85 -0.15 15.65 20.45 173K 177K 17.85
Current.
AVP 11/25 cup hdl 54.3 +0.16 52.94 61 919K 1.8M 51.35
Current. Nice test of the breakout.
BBOX 11/14 cup hdl 45.07 -2.32 48.45 56 301K 550K 46.65
Exited.
BBY 12/14 Test 18 25.8 -0.17 26.55 30 3.4M 500K 24.69
New.
BER 11/13 cup hdl 39.58 +0.46 38.4 45 294K 306K 38.35
Current. Moving back up on rising volume.
BGEN 12/07 Test 18 40.58 -1.95 43.94 51 2.2M 4M 40.86
Buy Not Hit. Not doing it, falling below the 18 day MVA.
BOH 10/26 cup hdl 30.58 +0.01 29.94 36 195K 427K 29.25
Current. Not going anywhere fast. Needs to move or we exit.
BRCM 11/16 CCall 16.23 -0.18 15.9 20 8M 15M 14.79
Current. Holding at the 50 day MVA still.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 31.41 -0.49 32.07 39.25 284K 900K 29.83
Buy not hit. Working laterally just below the breakout point on very low volume.
CEPH 12/14 Put 49.34 -1.48 49.19 45.51 2M 2M 50.65
New.
CLE 12/04 A Wedge 23.69 -0.43 26.05 31 190K 505K 23.85
Exited.
CLE 10/26 Test BO 23.69 -0.43 25.05 30 190K 505K 24
Exited.
CLE 09/07 DB hdl 23.69 -0.43 22.41 25.94 190K 365K 24.05
Exited.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 46.61 -0.83 41.96 48.45 204K 389K 43.84
Current. Took a breather after three strong sessions off the 18 day MVA.
CREE 12/10 Test 50 19.14 -0.51 19.65 24.25 1.8M 4.1M 18.27
Current.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 23.7 -0.36 23.65 28 218K 581K 22.25
Current. Very solid action given the selling and chip downgrades, testing the 50 day MVA on the low on lower volume.
CVH 12/09 Put 28.9 -0.41 29.04 26 279K 820K 31.45
Current.
FRGO 11/30 Test BO 11.62 -0.91 12.49 15 177K 270K 11.62
Current. Dumped back to the 18 day MVA, not the action we wanted.
GILD 11/06 BO 35.68 -1.7 38.38 46 17M 5.8M 36.65
Exited.
GRMN 11/06 cup hdl 24.22 -0.78 22.34 26 183K 198K 23.48
Current. Turned and dumped back to the 18 day MVA. Volume lower so will give it a chance to hold here.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 57.76 -1.25 61.6 70 176K 488K 59.85
Current. Nice move up off the 50 day could not continue, but the good volume backed way down.
HD 09/16 Test 50 26.39 -0.9 34.55 38 15M 10M 32.13
Current.
HEW 12/14 Test BO 32 -0.28 33.88 40 86K 160K 31.51
New.
HSIC 12/09 Put 46.18 +1.08 44.15 40 629K 667K 41.06
New.
IBM 12/04 Test 50 80 -0.17 84.94 94.94 7.8M 12M 78.99
Current. Holding the 200 day MVA and moving up a bit on slightly rising volume.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 80 -0.17 78.45 88 7.8M 12M 82.24
Current.
ICOS 12/05 Test 18 28.56 -1.18 31.45 38 484K 1.2M 29.25
Buy Not Hit.
IMCL 12/09 Test 18 11.55 -0.73 14.05 17.25 1.5M 2.5M 12.56
Buy Not Hit. Not doing it.
ISSX 11/30 Test BO 20.04 -1.02 25.05 31 3.4M 2.5M 23.3
Buy Not Hit. Looking good in a weaker tech market.
JEC 12/09 cup hdl 36.12 0 36.75 42 171K 465K 34.18
Buy Not Hit. Very nice handle.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 3.02 -0.06 3.22 4.35 47K 145K 3.32
Current. Doji that tested the 50 day MVA on the high coupled w/low volume. Looks like a last chance before it falls again. If does not clear 3.20 on the close prudence says to exit.
LUK 11/16 cup hdl 39.12 -0.24 38.51 44.45 26K 125K 37.97
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Nice test.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 30.31 -1.19 31.55 38 3.7M 5M 28.85
Current. Held up just fine on the Friday selling.
MRCY 12/14 Pennant 30.91 -0.27 31.65 37.85 153K 350K 29.43
New.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 52.5 -1.67 56.61 62.75 33M 67M 54.45
Current. Breaking down. Debated closing it Friday, but some support at 52 that could bounce it for a better exit point.
MSFT 11/13 Test BO 52.5 -1.67 56.15 62.55 33M 50M 55.74
Current.
MSFT 10/16 Test BO 52.5 -1.67 52.35 59 33M 50M 55.74
Current.
MSN 12/04 cup hdl 5.55 +0.15 4.85 6.35 596K 150K 4.51
Current.
MSN 11/23 cup hdl 5.55 +0.15 4.15 5.68 596K 150K 4.51
Current. Rallied up to the target, but we let it ride, then it fell back. Still good action.
MTB 11/18 Put 78.85 +0.11 78.45 74.22 248K 500K 81.45
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 44.28 -1.11 44.85 51.75 313K 1.1M 44.05
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on continued below average volume.
PCLE 10/17 BO 13.71 -0.48 11.51 13.82 400K 800K 12.94
Current.
PFGC 12/09 Put 34.62 +0.08 33.97 31.75 225K 475K 34.75
Buy Not Hit. Ready to roll back down.
PIXR 11/20 BO 60.18 +0.68 57.85 66 800K 775K 57.65
Current. Nice move Friday on volume, and it looks as if it is ready to go again.
PKTR 12/11 Test 18 7.4 -0.5 8.34 10.55 261K 335K 7.55
Current. Edged below the 18 day MVA on some rising volume. Must hold here.
PVSW 11/23 Cup 4.05 -0.01 4.27 5.35 24K 125K 3.97
Buy Not Hit. Still solid.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.61 -0.9 40.85 50 13M 18M 37.99
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.61 -0.9 34.78 42 13M 18M 38.14
Current. Still above the 50 day MVA. Looking for that level to hold as it is also at the October high.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.93 -0.11 41.4 50 13M 25M 39.88
Down to test the simple 50 day MVA.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.45 -0.15 17.35 20.75 566K 225K 16.95
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA on a volume spike.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 17.45 -0.15 13.8 20 566K 300K 16.95
Current.
ROOM 11/07 Cup 59.45 -3.21 65.25 75 915K 1.2M 67.25
Exited.
RYAAY 11/18 Test BO 41.15 -1.35 43.55 50.35 858K 425K 43.94
SAFC 12/07 A Wedge 35.03 -0.35 36.69 41 660K 1.5M 34.12
Buy Not Hit. Still in the pattern, selling to the 50 day MVA on lower volume. Just waiting for the breakout.
SAY 12/12 cup hdl 13 -0.2 13.48 16.98 83K 255K 12.54
Buy not hit. Still a very solid pattern.
SCSS 12/11 Test 18 9.78 +0.02 9.85 12 268K 545K 8.97
Buy Not Hit. Getting ready.
SJM 12/02 Test BO 38.42 -0.18 40.15 48 134K 476K 37.65
Buy Not Hit.
STI 11/18 Put 56.63 -0.76 59.49 56 873K 1.5M 60.85
Current. Falling again toward the target.
TK 12/07 cup hdl 37.99 +0.49 39.25 46.65 103K 235K 36.15
Buy Not Hit. Volume moving up on the gain. Getting close.
TMCS 11/26 Test BO 21.54 -0.97 26.45 31.75 647K 1.2M 24.61
Current. Broke through the 50 day MVA and held the 50 day MVA.
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 41.17 -0.37 45.44 51.44 228K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 41.17 -0.37 39.05 46.85 228K 235K 42.05
Current. Edging lower on below average volume, but we will give it room as it is a leader and still above support at 40.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.99 0 16.25 19.65 739K 1M 15.11
Current. Doji at 17 where it stalled in late December. Holding up very well in the market and may move on up from here on a return of buyers. Otherwise a test of 16 is not bad (10 day MVA).
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.44 -0.17 17.65 21.45 71K 295K 16.21
Current. Good action, holding the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
VIP 12/07 Test BO 32 0 34.85 40 356K 300K 32.41
Buy Not Hit. Testing the 50 day MVA on the low, but snapped back up as volume jumped up to above average.
VIP 11/09 Test BO 32 0 30.06 35 356K 285K 31.45
Current.
VZ 12/04 cup hdl 38.7 +0.3 41 47.5 5.8M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit. Ready to bounce up off the 200 day MVA.
VZ 11/23 cup hdl 38.7 +0.3 41 45 5.8M 11M 37.55
Current.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 38.7 +0.3 34.75 42 5.8M 10M 37.55
Current.
WFR 11/14 cup hdl 8.6 -0.35 8.45 11 104K 325K 8.12
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 17.4 -0.23 17.32 22.75 16M 20M 16.11
Buy Not Issued. Tried the move but could not hold it; strong volume. May test back a bit more toward 17 before making another attempt.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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