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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/14/2002
BEIQ (BEI Technologies--$14.25; -0.05; no options): Scientific & Technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beiq.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BEIQ is in a sector performing well of late. The stock moved over the 200 day MVA (14) in late November and has worked laterally above that level on lower volume. Accumulation since May when the stock peaked before starting this base is positive at 9 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks. Again this sector has had some of the better movers in the market. Looking for a strong volume move up from here after the volume has dried up the past week.
Volume: 5.1K Avg Volume: 41K
BUY POINT: $15.06 Volume=55K Target=$18 Stop=$13.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/beiq.html
ROK (Rockwell Automation--$21.11; +0.59; optionable): Conglomerate (chips, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rok.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in the handle of its 7.5 month base, ROK jumped up off the 18 day MVA (20.20) Friday on another huge volume spike. Relative strength broke out on the move, a very positive confirmation of the move along with the volume even though the stock has not broken out of the handle yet. Money flow has been shooting up ahead of price, another indication of the strong accumulation. It looks ready for the breakout from the nice pattern.
Volume: 1.478M Avg Volume: 650K
BUY POINT: $21.89 Volume=1M Target=$6.25 Stop=$19.95
POSITION: ROK DD - April $20c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rok.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/14/2002
CEPH (Cephalon--$49.34; -1.48; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
STATUS: Put. CEPH formed a quick double top in late November and fell to the 50 and 200 day MVA (coincident right now at 51.25). It tried to hold but then gave up Friday, making a cleaner break as volume moved up on the selling. Looks ready for a dip to the mid-October lows from 45 to 45.50.
Volume: 2.04M Avg Volume: 2.5M
BUY POINT: $49.19 Volume=2M Target=$45.51 Stop=$50.65
POSITION: CQE NJ - Feb. $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ceph.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AFCO (Applied Films--$18.7; -0.05; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Despite all of the semiconductor downgrades, AFCO has held up very well, giving a very low volume pullback to the 18 day MVA last week. It is showing some tight doji's on the 18 day MVA, and looks very good.
Volume: 75.1K Avg Volume: 167.863K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $19.45. Next: $20.85 Volume=225K Target=$25 Stop=$18.79
POSITION: UOF DW - April $17.50c (55 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afco.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
VZ (Verizon Communications--$38.7; +0.3; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vz.html
STATUS: 200 day MVA test. VZ is showing signs its pullback is over, flexing its muscles at the 200 day. Friday it tried to make its move over the short term MVA, hitting 39.49 on the high as volume started up. Looks ready to give us the entry point.
Volume: 5.792M Avg Volume: 8.2M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $39.85. Next: $41 Volume=11M Target=$47.5 Stop=$38.13
POSITION: VZ DU - April $37.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vz.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.62; +0.08; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Another doji at the 200 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Looks ready to roll back over after the low volume move up to resistance following the dump lower in early December.
Volume: 225.372K Avg Volume: 440.318K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $34.35; then $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfgc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Still looking good:
ANT
ATRS
AVID
AVP
HLTH
PIXR
SAY
SCIO
WFR
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 12/07 Test 50 451.81 -6.73 466.74 486 7.8M 1.5M 455.45
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on the low. Debated exiting, but anticipating a bounce at this point.
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 309.27 -11.96 335.15 385 3.3M 0 313.94
Current. Downgrades hurt chips, but they did not undercut their recent lows, one of the few indexes not to do so.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 31.56 -0.83 32.05 38.45 253K 800K 30.35
Current. Holding at the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still solid.
AFCO 12/07 Test BO 18.7 -0.05 20.85 25 75K 225K 18.79
Buy Not Hit.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 9.9 +0.31 9.86 11.85 419K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 9.9 +0.31 7.28 9.75 419K 200K 8.94
Current. Another solid, above average volume move.
AMLN 12/12 A Wedge 17.85 -0.2 18.75 22.75 410K 750K 17.25
Buy not hit. Still looks solid in the nice wedge.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 22.18 -0.12 22.85 29.65 3.9M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 cup hdl 22.18 -0.12 20.32 24.38 3.9M 10M 21.75
Current. Still banging its head at the 18 day MVA, but holding up very well.
ANT 12/11 Put 22.6 +0.57 22.45 20 94K 200K 23.55
Buy Not Issued. Looks ready to fall once more.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 13 -0.06 14.05 18 167K 200K 13.07
Buy Not Hit. Nice pattern still.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 18.85 -0.15 19.65 23.65 173K 500K 18.05
Buy Not Hit. Tight doji testing the 18 day MVA on low volume. Looks like a shakeout before the move.
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 18.85 -0.15 15.65 20.45 173K 177K 17.85
Current.
AVP 11/25 cup hdl 54.3 +0.16 52.94 61 919K 1.8M 51.35
Current. Nice test of the breakout.
BER 11/13 cup hdl 39.58 +0.46 38.4 45 294K 306K 38.35
Current.
BGEN 12/07 Test 18 40.58 -1.95 43.94 51 2.2M 4M 40.86
Current. Moving back up on rising volume.
BMRN 11/21 BO 7.74 -0.14 7.95 11 119K 750K 7.29
Current. Still looks good, holding 7.50 again on an intraday test of that level.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 41.75 -0.45 37.75 45.75 1.2M 3.3M 40.55
Current. A leader making a nice test of the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
CEPH 12/14 Put 49.34 -1.48 49.19 45.51 2M 2M 50.65
New.
CNMD 12/09 Put 18.34 -0.29 17.97 15.75 257K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit. Starting to fall on some rising volume.
CPHD 12/05 Test BO 5.84 -0.33 6.35 8.32 1.3M 500K 5.52
Current. Reversed on some heavy volume. At the 10 day MVA, but needs to hold.
CREE 12/10 Test 50 19.14 -0.51 19.65 24.25 1.8M 4.1M 18.27
Current. Very solid action given the selling and chip downgrades, testing the 50 day MVA on the low on lower volume.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 23.7 -0.36 23.65 28 218K 581K 22.25
Current. Nice, lower volume test of the 10 day MVA after the nice move up the prior 5 sessions. Good action.
DELL 11/04 cup hdl 26.63 -0.8 30.55 36 23M 36M 28.41
Exited.
ECL 10/30 cup hdl 47.49 -0.58 49.11 56.55 515K 1M 47.25
Current. Not good action falling below the 50 day barely on some rising volume. It recovers Monday or we send it packing.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 67.39 -3.88 78.25 88 2.8M 3.2M 72.77
Current. Struggling mightily, falling to the 50 day MVA on rising, average volume. Must hold here.
FOX 11/05 cup hdl 25.86 -0.83 27.15 32.45 2.4M 1.5M 25.25
Current. Gave back the nice Thursday move, but held the 10 day MVA on the close.
GTK 10/31 cup hdl 26.71 -0.66 26.15 30 753K 900K 24.32
Current. Took a breather after Thursday's big move.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 18.85 -0.91 19.64 22.45 300K 586K 18.27
Current. could not sustain the move and fell to the 50 day MVA on the close. Has to bounce here, but GYMB's pattern is to test the 50 day MVA every 4 weeks, and it is right on schedule.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 57.76 -1.25 61.6 70 176K 488K 59.85
Current. Nice move up off the 50 day could not continue, but the good volume backed way down.
HLTH 12/12 cup hdl 8.66 +0.16 8.85 11.35 2.3M 3.1M 8.23
Buy not issued. Very nice move off the 18 day MVA on some strong, average volume.
HSIC 12/09 Put 46.18 +1.08 44.15 40 629K 667K 41.06
New.
IBM 12/04 Test 50 80 -0.17 84.94 94.94 7.8M 12M 78.99
Current. Holding the 200 day MVA and moving up a bit on slightly rising volume.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 80 -0.17 78.45 88 7.8M 12M 82.24
Current.
ICOS 12/05 Test 18 28.56 -1.18 31.45 38 484K 1.2M 29.25
Buy Not Hit.
IDXC 12/02 cup hdl 17.27 -0.32 17.65 21.25 224K 163K 16.35
Current. Testing back on lower volume after the big breakout, holding above support at 17.
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 41.09 -0.75 38.81 45 420K 300K 39.25
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA on the Friday low and bounced back.
IMCL 12/09 Test 18 11.55 -0.73 14.05 17.25 1.5M 2.5M 12.56
Buy Not Hit. Not doing it.
KRON 11/13 BO 41.18 -1.19 40.12 47.94 332K 450K 41.78
Exited.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 3.02 -0.06 3.22 4.35 47K 145K 3.32
Current. Doji that tested the 50 day MVA on the high coupled w/low volume. Looks like a last chance before it falls again. If does not clear 3.20 on the close prudence says to exit.
LMLP 12/07 cup hdl 13.6 +0.85 10.75 12.96 467K 135K 9.85
Current. Strong, strong move once again.
LMLP 11/23 cup hdl 13.6 +0.85 9.75 14.25 467K 135K 11
Current.
LXK 10/29 cup hdl 61.93 -1.07 61 72 3.8M 2.2M 62.48
Current. Gapped down to the 50 day MVA, not giving us much to work with. It bounced up off that level, cutting its session losses. Now will see if it can get over 63 early this week. If it cannot we will exit.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 23.37 +2.85 23.39 27.94 929K 300K 21.45
Buy Not Hit.
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 15.16 -0.09 17.05 20.55 876K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit. Fading a bit far.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 30.31 -1.19 31.55 38 3.7M 5M 28.85
Current. Held up just fine on the Friday selling.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 52.5 -1.67 56.61 62.75 33M 67M 54.45
Current. Breaking down. Debated closing it Friday, but some support at 52 that could bounce it for a better exit point.
MSN 12/04 cup hdl 5.55 +0.15 4.85 6.35 596K 150K 4.51
Current. Rallied up to the target, but we let it ride, then it fell back. Still good action.
MSN 11/23 cup hdl 5.55 +0.15 4.15 5.68 596K 150K 4.51
Current.
MVL 11/04 BO 8.92 -0.15 8.74 10.75 307K 400K 8.35
Current. Took a breather after the good recovery off the 50 day MVA test Wednesday.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 44.28 -1.11 44.85 51.75 313K 1.1M 44.05
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA on continued below average volume.
NTST 11/14 Test BO 5.9 -0.19 6.75 8.25 25K 100K 5.94
Current. Unable to continue the move off the 50 day MVA. Giving it early this week to make the move up.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.07 -0.33 13.05 16.15 18M 35M 11.35
Current. Nice consolidation right over the 50 day MVA.
NXTL 11/12 Test 50 12.07 -0.33 12.15 16.15 18M 4.5M 11.35
Current.
OMX 11/18 A Wedge 5.58 -0.19 5.96 7.11 676K 2.1M 5.54
Current. Tapped the 50 and 200 day MVA on the low and rebounded. Needs to do it.
OVTI 12/07 Test BO 17.04 -1.73 18.45 22.35 1.1M 1.2M 16
Current. Turned and fell harder Friday, closing below the 10 day MVA. Volume slid lower. Don't like the action, but if it checks up at 16.25 over the 18 day MVA and rallies again that is fine.
PFGC 12/09 Put 34.62 +0.08 33.97 31.75 225K 475K 34.75
Buy Not Hit. Ready to roll back down.
PIXR 11/20 BO 60.18 +0.68 57.85 66 800K 775K 57.65
Current. Nice move Friday on volume, and it looks as if it is ready to go again.
PNRA 11/07 cup hdl 36.61 +0.3 34.38 39.75 360K 1.2M 34.12
Current. Had a decent week, rising off the 18 day MVA, but needs more volume to clear the recent high at 38.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 27.2 -0.7 25.51 30.55 488K 450K 26.25
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and then recovered to hold that level. Higher volume is an alert, but this is an early leader and we will give is some room.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.61 -0.9 40.85 50 13M 18M 37.99
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.61 -0.9 34.78 42 13M 18M 38.14
Current. Still above the 50 day MVA. Looking for that level to hold as it is also at the October high.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.93 -0.11 41.4 50 13M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 36.93 -0.11 36.48 0 13M 12M 37
Current. At the simple 50 day MVA. A check of the January 37.50 calls shows they are still over $3 to buy, so just letting the position ride.
REGN 12/11 Test BO 20.54 -0.9 22.02 26.35 196K 450K 20.24
Buy Not Hit. Still working through the nice wedge that is testing the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA on the low.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.45 -0.15 17.35 20.75 566K 225K 16.95
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA on a volume spike.
RINO 08/28 cup hdl 17.45 -0.15 13.8 20 566K 300K 16.95
Current.
ROK 12/14 cup hdl 21.11 +0.59 21.89 6.25 1.5M 1M 19.95
New.
SAY 12/12 cup hdl 13 -0.2 13.48 16.98 83K 255K 12.54
Buy not hit. Still a very solid pattern.
SCIO 12/03 cup hdl 32.74 -0.32 33.05 39.65 496K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued. Looks ready for a better move.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.99 0 16.25 19.65 739K 1M 15.11
Current. Doji at 17 where it stalled in late December. Holding up very well in the market and may move on up from here on a return of buyers. Otherwise a test of 16 is not bad (10 day MVA).
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.99 +0.04 9.68 11.75 278K 345K 9
Current. Held up very well Friday.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.44 -0.17 17.65 21.45 71K 295K 16.21
Current. Good action, holding the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
VRNT 11/23 cup hdl 17.41 -1.02 15.85 19.15 142K 113K 15.75
Current. Needs to hold the 18 day MVA at 16.75 this week.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 16.97 -0.52 19.76 20 5M 8.5M 17.45
Current. January $20 calls sold are 65 cents to buy. May $17.50 are 3.30 to sell. Tempted to close out the January calls (buy them back) and go out to the May, but the return would be 3%/month on our money. Will wait.
VZ 12/04 cup hdl 38.7 +0.3 41 47.5 5.8M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit. Ready to bounce up off the 200 day MVA.
VZ 11/23 cup hdl 38.7 +0.3 41 45 5.8M 11M 37.55
Current.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 38.7 +0.3 34.75 42 5.8M 10M 37.55
Current.
WFR 11/14 cup hdl 8.6 -0.35 8.45 11 104K 325K 8.12
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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