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Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: BER; BSTE; COLM; GRMN; PIXR; PVSW; CREE
Best Plays:
1) AFCO: Looks super after holding up well in the selling.
2) SAY: Very nice shakeout.
3) SCSS: Great wedge.
4) TK: Making the move on super volume.
5) VIP: Looks as if the test is over.
6) CREE: Starting the bounce.
7) MRCY: Starting higher on volume.
New Plays:
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$6.21; +0.07; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working in the handle of its 9-month base, working laterally and on lower, below average volume in the handle as it should. Huge volume spike six sessions back as IDBE tested the 10 day MVA on the low and bounced back. Another small cap that has formed a nice pattern and looks ready to break to a new 52-week high.
Volume: 61.55K Avg Volume: 92.181K
BUY POINT: $6.65 Volume=165K Target=$8.55 Stop=$6.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idbe.html
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$11.6; +0.1; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. A new issued in July, AVO enjoyed a strong move in November and now is consolidating that move with the ascending wedge pattern that is using the 18 day MVA as the bounce point and 11.50 to 12 being the top of the pattern. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). It tried to make the move last Wednesday and Thursday but backed off. This looks like the shakeout the past two sessions where the last weak holders sell out on the dip back down. Now we sit patiently and wait for the breakout.
Volume: 42.5K Avg Volume: 143.681K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AFCO (Applied Films--$19.24; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still looking very salty at the 18 day MVA the past four sessions, moving on below average volume. Looks ready to make the move after it has held the gap up point where it blasted over the 200 day MVA (16) back in late November.
Volume: 102.1K Avg Volume: 167.09K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $19.45. Next: $20.85 Volume=225K Target=$25 Stop=$18.79
POSITION: UOF DW - April $17.50c (55 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afco.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AVID (Avid Technology--$19.4; +0.55; optionable): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AVID was an early leader and it is in a 3-week lateral test of its breakout. After closing on the 18 day MVA Friday with a doji, AVID jumped up Monday on some rising though still below average volume. Flexing its muscles and looks ready for the next move up.
Volume: 256.327K Avg Volume: 304.363K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=500K Target=$23.65 Stop=$18.05
POSITION: AQI FW - June $17.50c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avid.html
Play Date: 11/25/2002
AVP (Avon Products--$53.82; -0.48; optionable): Make-up, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very nice breakout test, tapping at the 10 day MVA on the low (53.50). Volume moved up to average levels. The test could be ending Tuesday or Wednesday.
Volume: 1.359M Avg Volume: 1.305M
BUY POINT: New: over $55 (orig. $52.94) Volume=1.8M Target=$61 Stop=$51.35
POSITION: AVP DJ - April. $50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avp.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
BBY (Best Buy--$25.4; -0.4; optionable): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Very tight doji again as it tests the 18 day MVA again, this time, however, on some rising volume. Looks to be building pressure for the bounce higher that we are looking to trade.
Volume: 5.138M Avg Volume: 5.675M
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=500K Target=$30 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: BBY CX - Mar. $22.50c (70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
BSTE (Biosite--$33.8; +2.39; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bste.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Blasted off out of the wedge on some excellent volume!
Volume: 1.095M Avg Volume: 616.409K
BUY POINT: New: up to 34.25 (orig. $32.07) Volume=900K Target=$39.25 Stop=$29.83
POSITION: BQS DF - April $30c (70 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bste.html
Play Date: 12/10/2002
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$20.54; +1.4; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. CREE was an early leader as well, and it ran up the short term MVA and then tested the 50 day MVA as is rather normal. It did not form the head and shoulders type pattern many other techs stocks have formed; more of a pure rest after a solid run. It found the 50 day, moved sideways, and then started up Monday on a solid price jump on rising though still lackluster volume. It can, however, provide a very nice run for us and put money in our pocket even if it is just a holiday rally.
Volume: 2.177M Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: New: $20.74 (orig. $19.65) Volume=4.1M Target=$24.25 Stop=$18.27
POSITION: CVO FW - June $17.50c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cree.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$36.86; +0.74; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looks ready to start the move, rising Monday on a solid jump in volume though still a bit below average. Again the pattern is very solid and very promising and we just wait for the breakout on volume.
Volume: 268K Avg Volume: 291.09K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$31.73; +1.42; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Volume was up Friday as MERQ moved off the 18 day MVA. Volume was back above average and MERQ looks ready to give that upside move now. Good accumulation at 9 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks.
Volume: 4.033M Avg Volume: 3.97M
BUY POINT: New: 32.05 (orig. $31.55) Volume=5M Target=$38 Stop=$28.85
POSITION: RQB DF - April $30c (63 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/merq.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$31.64; +0.73; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Pennant. Looking as if it is getting ready, holding the 18 day MVA once again on the low (30.44) and starting up on some rising though still a bit below average volume. Good accumulation is setting up the move (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 217.72K Avg Volume: 227.181K
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrcy.html
Play Date: 10/17/2002
PCLE (Pinnacle Systems--$14.29; +0.58; optionable): Photo equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcle.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Broke out of its 4.5 month cup w/handle in November, and has formed this wedge on top of that base. We really like this combination pattern as it is often a precursor to really solid moves.
Volume: 619.673K Avg Volume: 897.863K
BUY POINT: New: $14.65 (orig. $11.51) Volume=800K Target=$17.55 (orig. $13.82) Stop=$12.94
POSITION: PUC GV - April $12.50c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcle.html
Play Date: 11/20/2002
PIXR (Pixar--$61.42; +1.24; optionable): Toy Story; Monsters, Inc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Breakout. Blasted off on another high volume move!
Volume: 897.258K Avg Volume: 465.863K
BUY POINT: No new positions righ now ($60.25; orig. $57.85 Volume=775K Target=$66 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: PQJ KD - April $55c (61 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
PVSW (Pervasive Software--$4.45; +0.4; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvsw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Blasted off out of the handle on rising volume, but not quite as high as we wanted. Enough to get us in on some positions and we will look for more if the volume rolls in stronger. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on lower volume.
Volume: 49.15K Avg Volume: 61.727K
BUY POINT: New: $4.55 (orig. $4.27) Volume=125K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.97
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pvsw.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$35.6; +0.57; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still looking solid in the handle, holdint eh 50 day MVA on the low (35.60) and bouncing higher. Did not get any volume on the move, and we need to see that on the breakout. Accumulation is excellent at 12 accumulation weeks to 5 distribution weeks.
Volume: 409.253K Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=255K Target=$16.98 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$12.93; -0.07; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Small world. SAY looks ready to make the move as well, tapping down to the 18 day MVA on the low (12.75) Monday and then recovering to show a tight doji. This action is typical of a shakeout before a move higher. Volume has dropped off the table the past three sessions. Good accumulation and money flow still running up ahead of the stock as it pulls back. Very good signal.
Volume: 109.9K Avg Volume: 163.5K
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=255K Target=$16.98 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
SCSS (Select Comfort--$9.79; +0.01; no options): Air beds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Super pattern. SCSS is riding up the 10 day MVA, squeezing up against the breakout point at 10 as volume continues to trade below average. Ready for the breakout.
Volume: 265.597K Avg Volume: 493.318K
BUY POINT: $9.85 Volume=545K Target=$12 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scss.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
TK (Teekay Shipping--$39.09; +1.1; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the strong move that we want, blasting out of the handle on strong, above average volume. Super accumulation, super money flow. A good sign when the shipping stocks start moving out of their bases.
Volume: 274.8K Avg Volume: 145.272K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $39.25 Volume=235K Target=$46.65 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: TK DG - April $35c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tk.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
VIP (Vimple Communication--$33.31; +1.31; optionable): Wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VIP blasted higher in late November up off its short term MVA, and then had enough. It fell back to the 50 day MVA Friday, but bounced. Monday it was up on a very strong shot of volume. It is ready to go again on the next let. A great entry point.
Volume: 640.5K Avg Volume: 238.545K
BUY POINT: $34.85 Volume=300K Target=$40 Stop=$32.41
POSITION: VIP DF - April $30c (75 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vip.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
VZ (Verizon Communications--$39.94; +1.24; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vz.html
STATUS: 200 day MVA test. Yes, it is moving now after the test. Up Monday on a good shot of volume and clearing the short term MVA. Looks ready for more.
Volume: 7.076M Avg Volume: 8.174M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: From here. Next: $41 Volume=11M Target=$47.5 Stop=$38.13
POSITION: VZ DU - April $37.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vz.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/11/2002
ANT (Anteon Intl.--$22.7; +0.1; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ant.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to reach over the 18 day MVA on the high (23.11) but could not hold the move. Instead it closed just under the 10 day MVA on rising though below average volume. Looks as if this might be the last gasp here.
Volume: 164.5K Avg Volume: 254.909K
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=200K Target=$20 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ANT ME - Jan. $25p (-64 delta, low OI) or ANT PX - April $22.50p (-40 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ant.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
CVH (Coventry Health Care--$29.45; +0.55; optionable): Medical practitioners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvh.html
STATUS: Put. Testing the 200 day MVA. Still struggling below the 200 day MVA on very light volume. It has been a struggle at the 200 day, but it has not given up yet. It is either going to break down or give a big break higher. With all of the distribution we are banking on the former.
Volume: 200.4K Avg Volume: 693.227K
BUY POINT: New: $28.74 Volume=820K Target=$26 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: CVH MF - Jan. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvh.html
End Part 2 of 3
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