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stock share, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves: FOX; GRMN; PIXR; QCOM; SFNT; TSCO; ZQK
Plays for Monday:
KWD: No breakout but still a solid handle with volume moving up above average.
ROK: Made the move!
PENN: Last gasp doji.
ANT: Ditto. Tried to clear the 18 day MVA but failed.
Best Plays:
1) AVID: Straining at the reins.
2) CREE: Looks ready to resume after a 50 day MVA test.
3) Continuing: EBAY still looks solid. AGI showing a doji at the 18 day MVA. KWD is still super. DSCO trying to make the move. PRA just needs some volume.
New Plays:
GPS (The Gap--$16.3; +0.6; optionable): Groovy apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gps.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Okay, lose the hooded sweatshirts and the zippered flannels with Morgan Fairchild unzipping. The Gap has had its share of problems times two, but it changed management and has put together a solid 7-month base with accumulation at 7 accumulation weeks (up weeks on rising volume) to 6 distribution weeks (down weeks on rising volume). Relative strength is ready to breakout and so is GAP. This may not be the stock we go to the grave with, but it is setting up for a nice move higher that can put money in our pockets. That is the name of the game.
Volume: 5.451M Avg Volume: 6.548M
BUY POINT: $16.81 Volume=9M Target=$20.15 Stop=$15.63
POSITION: GPS FC - June $15c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gps.html
Revisited: Many, many great plays setting up on current plays.
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AVID (Avid Technology--$19.4; +0.55; optionable): Consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AVID was an early leader and it is in a 3-week lateral test of its breakout. After closing on the 18 day MVA Friday with a doji, AVID jumped up Monday on some rising though still below average volume. Flexing its muscles and looks ready for the next move up.
Volume: 256.327K Avg Volume: 304.363K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=500K Target=$23.65 Stop=$18.05
POSITION: AQI FW - June $17.50c (71 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/avid.html
Play Date: 12/10/2002
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$20.54; +1.4; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. CREE was an early leader as well, and it ran up the short term MVA and then tested the 50 day MVA as is rather normal. It did not form the head and shoulders type pattern many other techs stocks have formed; more of a pure rest after a solid run. It found the 50 day, moved sideways, and then started up Monday on a solid price jump on rising though still lackluster volume. It can, however, provide a very nice run for us and put money in our pocket even if it is just a holiday rally.
Volume: 2.177M Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: New: $20.74 (orig. $19.65) Volume=4.1M Target=$24.25 Stop=$18.27
POSITION: CVO FW - June $17.50c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cree.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$29.66; +0.45; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still working in the wedge that formed after the 5-month cup pattern that started in June. JBHT continues to move laterally hold the 10 day MVA 29 on the low each session on very low volume. It is right at the breakout and showing excellent accumulation. Looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 189.07K Avg Volume: 443.863K
BUY POINT: $30.18 Volume=725K Target=$35.25 Stop=$28.07
POSITION: JHQ EF - May $30c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jbht.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Time for a new subscriber survey for new stocks to stock the portfolio. Start your votes so we can start the new year with a new batch of your favorite stocks.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 12/07 Test 50 463.26 +11.45 466.74 486 8.5M 1.5M 455.45
Current. Good recovery over the 50 day and short term MVA.
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 325.65 +16.38 335.15 385 5M 0 313.94
Current. Also a nice move but at critical support.
AGI 12/03 cup hdl 16.21 -0.11 17.75 21.35 62K 968K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Doji at the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Looks ready to go.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.03 +0.13 9.86 11.85 312K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.03 +0.13 7.28 9.75 312K 200K 8.94
Current. Pensive move, showing a loose doji on lower, average volume. Not an easy read, but letting it run.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 22.51 +0.33 22.85 29.65 5M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit. Getting ready, edging over the 10 day MVA on some rising though still below average volume.
AMZN 10/21 cup hdl 22.51 +0.33 20.32 24.38 5M 10M 21.75
Current.
ANT 12/11 Put 22.7 +0.1 22.45 20 164K 200K 23.55
Buy Not Issued. Doji right below the 18 day MVA.
ATML 12/11 Test 18 2.72 -0.02 3.45 5 19M 20M 3.05
Buy Not Hit. Trying to survive the downgrade, holding the 50 day MVA on the low with a big, tight doji on rising volume. May be ready.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 19.4 +0.55 19.65 23.65 256K 500K 18.05
Buy Not Hit.
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 19.4 +0.55 15.65 20.45 256K 177K 17.85
Current. Be ready for the next move.
BCGI 10/07 cup hdl 13.65 +0.21 11.25 14 192K 250K 10.95
Holding at the 18 day MVA, trying to recover.
BMRN 11/21 BO 7.5 -0.24 7.95 11 225K 750K 7.29
Current. Holding some support at 7.50. Needs to do it here.
BRCM 11/16 CCall 17.11 +0.88 15.9 20 8.9M 15M 14.79
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA on some rising volume.
CCK 11/21 BO 9 +0.17 8.6 11 1.9M 1.8M 7.74
Current. Doji at 9 on rising, above average volume. Just letting it work higher.
CFB 11/18 Put 23.42 +1.22 21.59 19.35 231K 175K 22.35
Buy Not Issued.
CGX 12/03 cup hdl 22.69 -0.11 22 26.45 84K 65K 21.05
Current. Holding steady.
CLC 10/29 Cup 31.95 -0.35 32.35 37 112K 99K 31.74
Exited.
CNMD 12/09 Put 18.88 +0.54 17.97 15.75 154K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit.
CPWM 11/13 cup hdl 30.65 +0.2 31.05 36.45 374K 471K 29.55
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA with a doji on rising, above average volume. Could be the precursor to the move.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.34 +0.29 7.38 8.85 591K 346K 6.55
Current. Up again to a new closing high but volume did not follow.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.34 +0.29 4.28 8 591K 346K 6.55
Current.
CREE 12/10 Test 50 20.54 +1.4 19.65 24.25 2.2M 4.1M 18.27
Current. Ready for the next buy.
CUB 07/06 Cup 19.11 +0.71 0 0 110K 0 0
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.89 +0.14 3.04 4.05 46K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Hit. Trying hard to make the move, rallying again to 3.20 on the high but could not hold it.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 69.28 +1.87 69.45 77 5M 12M 65.94
Buy Not Issued. Starting up.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 69.28 +1.87 62.45 71 5M 12M 65.45
Current.
ECL 10/30 cup hdl 48.38 +0.89 49.11 56.55 700K 1M 47.25
Current. Trying to move off the 50 day MVA. Volume was there.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 4.38 +0.01 4.05 5.97 72K 100K 4.05
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA still.
FOX 11/05 cup hdl 27.05 +1.19 27.15 32.45 2.9M 1.5M 25.25
Current. Super move on volume.
GPS 12/16 cup hdl 16.3 +0.6 16.81 20.15 5.5M 9M 15.63
New.
GRMN 11/06 cup hdl 28.42 +4.2 22.34 26 2.3M 198K 23.48
Current. Massive breakout. Took some gain on some options, let the rest ride.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 19.43 +0.58 19.64 22.45 576K 586K 18.27
Current.
HLTH 12/12 cup hdl 8.85 +0.19 8.85 11.35 2.3M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit. Trying to get it going on some continued higher volume.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 24.39 +0.49 23.9 28 608K 1.5M 21.81
Current.
IDCC 11/12 Test 18 16.09 +0.89 14.35 17.25 984K 700K 15.78
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29.66 +0.45 30.18 35.25 189K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit. Looks so ready.
KKD 11/23 BO 37.04 +0.19 39.03 45.55 414K 1M 36.3
Buy Not Hit. Another doji. Volume creeping higher.
KWD 12/14 cup hdl 28.05 +0.2 29.17 33.98 153K 200K 26.96
Buy not hit. Volume is moving up, rising to above average.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 2.95 -0.06 3.22 4.35 45K 145K 3.32
Current. Could not take out the 50 day MVA as cannot get volume.
LLY 12/09 Test 18 64.85 +0.38 66.25 75 3.9M 6.2M 61.61
Buy Not Hit.
LMLP 12/07 cup hdl 13.7 +0.1 10.75 12.96 261K 135K 11
Buy Not Issued.
LMLP 11/23 cup hdl 13.7 +0.1 9.75 14.25 261K 135K 11
Current. Edged higher again but running out of steam.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 39.92 +1.01 0 0 4.4M 0 0
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 15.75 +0.59 17.05 20.55 424K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit. May be trying to start the move but needs volume.
MEOH 11/04 BO 8.93 +0.03 9.03 10.88 59K 375K 8.30
Current. Trying to do it but no volume. Now or never.
MRGE 12/10 Test BO 6.78 +0.39 7.25 9 35K 79K 6.74
Buy Not Hit. Good recovery on some rising volume. Now it needs to really move to get us to enter.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 58.5 +1.16 59.15 67 5.2M 9.5M 56.65
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 54.48 +1.98 56.61 62.75 30M 67M 54.45
Current. Up over the 50 day MVA but lower volume.
MSTR 11/18 BO 15.55 -0.2 18.45 21 212K 550K 17.65
Exited.
MVL 11/04 BO 9 +0.08 8.74 10.75 243K 400K 8.35
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 92.58 +1.35 0 0 2.7M 1.7M 0
NTST 11/14 Test BO 5.58 -0.31 6.75 8.25 29K 100K 5.94
Exited.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.82 +0.75 13.05 16.15 21M 35M 11.35
Current. Over the 18 day MVA on some slightly rising volume.
OMX 11/18 A Wedge 5.73 +0.15 5.96 7.11 506K 2.1M 5.54
Current. Held the 200 day MVA, but needs to bounce.
OSTK 11/16 cup hdl 13.92 -0.57 10.65 16.05 128K 125K 12.75
Current. Holding at the 10 day MVA on some higher volume. Want to see it jump here.
OSTK 11/16 Test BO 13.92 -0.57 14.48 18 128K 125K 12.55
Current.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.85 +0.17 16.55 14 274K 300K 17.65
Buy not hit. Looks like a last gasp doji below the 200 day MVA.
PG 09/21 Test 18 88.05 +0.64 91.55 103 3.4M 5.5M 89.45
PIXR 11/20 BO 61.42 +1.24 57.85 66 897K 775K 57.65
Current. On the Nasdaq 100 and it was up on volume as it gets bought up in anticipation.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 27.19 -0.01 25.51 30.55 486K 450K 26.25
Current. Doji at the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to move up from here and needs to do just that.
PRA 12/11 cup hdl 20.3 +0.49 20.26 24.32 32K 145K 19.05
Buy Not Issued. Moving up but no volume Monday.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 39.39 +1.78 40.85 50 12M 18M 37.99
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 39.39 +1.78 34.78 42 12M 18M 38.14
Current. Big jump higher but gave half of it back.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 38.37 +1.44 41.4 50 12M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 38.37 +1.44 36.48 0 12M 12M 37
Current. Up over the 50 day MVA once again.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 46.82 +0.84 58.02 66.45 479K 701K 53.96
ROK 12/14 cup hdl 21.76 +0.65 21.89 6.25 1.7M 1M 19.95
Current. Nice breakout.
SFNT 11/06 cup hdl 26.94 +3.27 20.78 25 495K 188K 25.45
Current. Issued a new buy alert as the stock was up again.
SLR 11/23 A Wedge 3.72 +0.05 4 5.45 6M 9.5M 3.74
Current. Still struggling at the 18 day MVA, but volume jumped. Maybe it will give the move.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 32.41 +0.42 35.25 40 776K 787K 32.78
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 43.07 +1.9 45.44 51.44 313K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 43.07 +1.9 39.05 46.85 313K 235K 42.05
Current. Nice bounce on volume. Another entry point here.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 17.35 +0.36 16.25 19.65 689K 1M 15.11
Current. Doji at a new high. Getting a bit tired on this move.
UNTD 11/02 cup hdl 17.35 +0.36 13.3 16 689K 1M 14.75
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.98 -0.01 9.68 11.75 297K 345K 9
Current. Two straight doji's. Getting a bit winded, unable to make headway. Still solid.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 16.99 -0.45 17.65 21.45 65K 295K 16.21
Current. Turned and dropped to the 18 day MVA but on low volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 18.07 +1.1 19.76 20 8.9M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
WM 07/06 Cup 36.53 +1.23 0 0 4.1M 5.5M 0
WSM 12/07 BO 28.87 +0.62 28.15 33 1.1M 1.8M 26.18
Current. Back up, continuing the move.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 17.3 -0.1 17.32 22.75 9.4M 20M 16.11
Buy Not Issued. Doji on the 18 day MVA. Looks ready.
ZQK 11/05 DB hdl 28.2 +2.21 25.22 30.25 381K 425K 25.74
Current. Now THAT is a good recovery, leaping off a test of the 10 day MVA on some big volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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