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us stock market, stock trading
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) AIG: Ready to fall.
2) AVO: Very nice consolidaton on low volume as the storm rages.
3) AVP: Beautiful breakout test.
4) AFCO: Holding up so well you have to like it.
5) SAY: Now showing a volume spike after the shakeout.
6) UTHR: Very nice volume.
7) PFGC: Starting the fall.
8) HSIC: Ditto.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/18/2002
AIG (American Intl. Group--$59.04; -1.53; optionable): Property & casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. This fall won't depend on what the market does. AIG double topped at the August and November peaks. It fell throug the 50 day MVA near 62, tested it, and is now falling again. It tried to clear the 10 day MVA early in the week but failed, and now it is starting to drop on some sharply higher, above average volume. Plenty of downside room here to make us some good returns.
Volume: 7.551M Avg Volume: 6.446M
BUY POINT: $58.55 Volume=7M Target=$54 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: AIG NL - Feb. $60p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/18/2002
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$38.39; -0.36; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In a 13-month base that bottomed from May to July. TARO has rallied up the 50 day MVA since mid-July. It has just come off of a test of the 50 day MVA just over 36, rising Monday on strong, above average volume. The past two sessions it has pulled back on lower volume, tapping the 10 day MVA on the Wednesday low and snapping back. Since the stock started bottoming in May accumulation is excellent at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. This month it has formed a small cup with handle within the larger, now forming the handle. Looks very solid and we like the fact that it just tested the 50 day and is giving a bit longer test.
Volume: 242.69K Avg Volume: 383.227K
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=575K Target=$46.85 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: QTT DG - April $35c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/07/2002
AFCO (Applied Films--$19.76; +0.26; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Holding up remarkably well for a semiconductor, managing to rise Wednesday though on low volume. We are still waiting for the move to kick in and provide a solid rebound to enter. As it has flown under the seller's radar during the recent selling it looks very good once the move back up starts.
Volume: 102.792K Avg Volume: 168.318K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $19.85. Next: $20.85 Volume=225K Target=$25 Stop=$18.79
POSITION: UOF DW - April $17.50c (55 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afco.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$11.6; -0.12; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Hardly touched in the Wednesday selling, tappign the 18 December 2002 on the low and rebounding on very low volume. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). Still patiently waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 32.3K Avg Volume: 141.863K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 11/25/2002
AVP (Avon Products--$53.99; -0.3; optionable): Make-up, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another stock hardly touched Wednesday as AVP continued its tset of the breakout on lower, below average volume. Super money flow and accumulation. Looks ready if it gets the cue.
Volume: 1.18M Avg Volume: 1.318M
BUY POINT: New: over $55 (orig. $52.94) Volume=1.8M Target=$61 Stop=$51.35
POSITION: AVP DJ - April. $50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avp.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$6.4; -0.44; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Blasted off Tuesday on volume but then fell back Wednesday in the overall selling. Lower volume helps but the quick reversal is not what you like to see on a breakout. Needs to hold here and resume the move.
Volume: 246.799K Avg Volume: 97.59K
BUY POINT: $6.65 Volume=165K Target=$8.55 Stop=$6.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idbe.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$36.45; -0.35; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Hardly touched Wednesday, testing the 10 day MVA on the low and bouncing back as volume fell. Money flow is good. All it needs is a good trigger.
Volume: 187K Avg Volume: 293.954K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$30.91; -0.88; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Pennant. Still moving in the pennant, holding up well Wednesday, tapping the 18 December 2002 on the low (30.60) and holding the 10 day MVA on the close. Volume was very low on the session; a non-event for MRCY. Good accumulation is setting up the move (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 96.15K Avg Volume: 230.409K
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrcy.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
PVSW (Pervasive Software--$4.15; -0.15; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvsw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Great move Monday, but then the market pushed it back Wednesday. Volume fell way off Wednesday, however. The selling was very mild and the pattern still holds. Accumulation is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on lower volume.
Volume: 5.6K Avg Volume: 62K
BUY POINT: $4.27 Volume=125K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.97
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pvsw.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$12.9; 0; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SAY continued to hold the 18 December 2002 in the Wednesday selling, working in its handle and the shakeout. Volume was up sharply as it held in a tight trading range. Looks like it is building for the breakout.
Volume: 264.6K Avg Volume: 164.136K
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=255K Target=$16.98 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 11/12/2002
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$17.35; +0.32; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After testing the 50 day MVA Tuesday and then again Wednesday on the low, UTHR jumped back up on some impressive, above average volume. Money flow is jumping up ahead of the stock and accumulation remains solid.
Volume: 301.823K Avg Volume: 159.363K
BUY POINT: $17.65 Volume=295K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
VZ (Verizon Communications--$39.25; +0.09; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vz.html
STATUS: 200 day MVA test. Unfazed by the selling, VZ managed a slight gain Wednesday, holding at the 18 day MVA with a very tight doji as volume edged higher. Telecom held up well in the selling and is just waiting for the market to stabilize.
Volume: 6.386M Avg Volume: 8.196M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: From here. Next: $41 Volume=11M Target=$47.5 Stop=$38.13
POSITION: VZ DU - April $37.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vz.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/11/2002
ANT (Anteon Intl.--$22.1; -0.22; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ant.html
STATUS: Put. Another move down Wednesday but bounced back from the low (21.75). Needs to get below 22, and if it does on rising volume we will add positions.
Volume: 195K Avg Volume: 258.318K
BUY POINT: New: 21.88 (orig. $22.45) Volume=200K Target=$20 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ANT ME - Jan. $25p (-64 delta, low OI) or ANT PX - April $22.50p (-40 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ant.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$43.71; -0.72; optionable): Medical Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. Started down Wednesday on some rising though still below average volume. Started positions on the move and will look for more if we see more volume Thursday.
Volume: 387.805K Avg Volume: 604.59K
BUY POINT: New: $43.75 (orig. $44.15) Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$41.06
POSITION: HQE MI - Jan. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsic.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34.21; -0.66; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. After trying to make a breakout over the 200 day MVA at 34.45 PFGC failed and fell back below that level Wednesday. Volume was still below average, but the entire move higher was on lower volume. The stock is under distribution and money flow has turned sharply lower.
Volume: 237.986K Avg Volume: 444.636K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock trading
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