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stock trading site, stock trading information
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Plays for Wednesday:
DANKY: Still looks very good, hardly touched by the selling.
UTIW: Making the move.
KWD: Breaking down, never making the move.
FLML: Tested back further to the 18 day MVA.
Best Plays:
1) ESRX: Ready to fall further.
2) SFNT: Took a breather.
3) UTHR: Great volume surge.
New Plays:
ESRX (Express Scripts--$47.95; -0.65; optionable): Mail prescription services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. ESRX is in a steady downtrend, moving down the 10 day MVA. ESRX is right at some support at 48. The combination of the downtrend and the support makt this play look good. Volume the past week has not been strong, but on a break below 48 it will have cleared the last near term support and has some room to fall.
Volume: 977.372K Avg Volume: 1.786M
BUY POINT: $47.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$44 Stop=$49.05
POSITION: XTO NJ - Feb. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/esrx.html
XTO (XTO Energy--$25.1; -0.1; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. XTO has enjoyed a strong run up from the July low, jumping up on November to 25. Since then it has moved laterally with a top near 25.50 as it rides up the 10 day MVA (25) on the lows. Accumulation since August is huge at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. A flying plateau is this flat, tight consolidation after a strong move where a strong stock takes a breather. Given that the stock is in the oil and gas sector we view this as a bullish pattern given the climate for oil and gas.
Volume: 822.6K Avg Volume: 1.045M
BUY POINT: $25.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$30.75 Stop=$23.85
POSITION: XTO EX - May $22.50c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xto.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 12/16/2002
SFNT (Safenet--$26.68; -0.16; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfnt.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA bounce. SFNT started to make the move Monday on a big volume jump. Then in the selling Tuesday and Wednesday SFNT barely pulled back. It has been one of the early leaders and the test of the 50 day MVA was a good entry point. We are looking for another entry point as the move up continues.
Volume: 354.889K Avg Volume: 230.772K
BUY POINT: New: $27.50 (orig. $26.70). Volume=188K Target=$32.45 Stop=$24.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sfnt.html
Play Date: 11/12/2002
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$17.35; +0.32; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After testing the 50 day MVA Tuesday and then again Wednesday on the low, UTHR jumped back up on some impressive, above average volume. Money flow is jumping up ahead of the stock and accumulation remains solid.
Volume: 301.823K Avg Volume: 159.363K
BUY POINT: $17.65 Volume=295K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/uthr.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Time for a new subscriber survey for new stocks to stock the portfolio. Start your votes so we can start the new year with a new batch of your favorite stocks.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 24.31 -0.22 23.9 28 1.2M 1.5M 21.81
Current. Looks hot.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 12/07 Test 50 452.78 -5.82 466.74 486 6.5M 1.5M 455.45
Current. Held 450 on the low, maintaining the current trading range.
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 3.4 -0.16 335.15 385 2.8M 0 313.94
Current. Sank to 300, some support. Looking for a bounce up to the 50 day at 317.
AGI 12/03 cup hdl 15.98 -0.21 17.75 21.35 135K 968K 16.51
Buy Not Hit.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10 -0.1 9.86 11.85 130K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10 -0.1 7.28 9.75 130K 200K 8.94
Current. Running out of gas a bit here, showing another doji at 10 on low volume.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 22.1 -0.36 22.85 29.65 4M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 cup hdl 22.1 -0.36 20.32 24.38 4M 10M 21.75
Current. Holding up very well in the selling.
ANT 12/11 Put 22.1 -0.22 22.45 20 195K 200K 23.55
Current. Ran down but hen recovered. Needs to get below 22.
ATML 12/11 Test 18 2.55 -0.31 3.45 5 10M 20M 3.05
Buy Not Hit. Back to the 50 day MVA, but the memory chip business is hurt by MU.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 20.94 -0.4 21 25 723K 500K 19.53
Current. Took a breather.
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 20.94 -0.4 15.65 20.45 723K 177K 17.85
Current.
BCGI 10/07 cup hdl 13.31 +0.02 11.25 14 211K 250K 10.95
BMRN 11/21 BO 7.26 -0.26 7.95 11 195K 750K 7.29
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA on the low.
BRCM 11/16 BO 15.9 -1.09 15.9 20 9.4M 15M 14.79
Current. Back at the 50 day MVA.
CCK 11/21 BO 8.42 -0.52 8.6 11 1.4M 1.8M 7.74
Current. Could not clear 9 and fell back on some rising though still below average volume.
CGX 12/03 cup hdl 23.5 -0.25 22 26.45 90K 65K 21.05
Current. Took a breather Wednesday on lower volume.
CNMD 12/09 Put 19.14 +0.01 17.97 15.75 128K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit.
CPWM 11/13 cup hdl 29.03 -1.01 31.05 36.45 256K 471K 29.55
Current. Broke below the 50 day MVA on some lower volume. Giving it a day to recover.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.57 -0.23 7.38 8.85 1.1M 346K 6.55
Current. Held up well, taking a day off.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.57 -0.23 4.28 8 1.1M 346K 6.55
Current.
CREE 12/10 Test 50 17.77 -0.96 19.65 24.25 4.2M 4.1M 18.27
Current. Broke below the 50 day MVA on stronger volume but held support at 18. Giving it a day to recover if it will over the 50 day.
CUB 07/06 Cup 18.06 0 0 0 90K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 cup hdl 4.35 +0.06 4.62 5.65 143K 560K 4.25
Buy not hit. Looks great.
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.87 -0.07 3.04 4.05 38K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Issued. Still working through the consolidation.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 69.37 -0.72 69.45 77 3.9M 12M 65.94
Current. Held up very well, tapping the 18 December 2002 on the low and recovering.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 69.37 -0.72 62.45 71 3.9M 12M 65.45
Current.
ECL 10/30 cup hdl 47.42 -0.4 49.11 56.55 364K 1M 47.25
Current. Back below the 50 day MVA on continued below average volume.
ESRX 12/18 Put 47.95 -0.65 47.65 44 977K 1.5M 49.05
New.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 4.1 -0.19 4.05 5.97 56K 100K 4.05
Current. Down to the 18 December 2002, testing it on the low.
FOX 11/05 cup hdl 26.49 -0.78 27.15 32.45 1.9M 1.5M 25.25
Current. Tapped at some support at 26 on the low and recovered well.
GPS 12/16 cup hdl 15.65 -0.6 16.81 20.15 7M 9M 15.63
Buy Not Hit.
GRMN 11/06 cup hdl 27.56 -0.43 22.34 30 573K 198K 25.95
Current. Nice pullback test.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 18.5 -0.53 19.64 22.45 327K 586K 18.27
Current. Below the 50 day MVA on lower volume. Common affliction but giving it a day to recover.
HLTH 12/12 cup hdl 8.65 -0.19 8.85 11.35 1.6M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit. Holding up well, tapping at the 10 day MVA on the low. Solid.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 24.31 -0.22 23.9 28 1.2M 1.5M 21.81
Current.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29 -0.45 30.18 35.25 534K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit. Very nice pattern still, testing the 18 day MVA on the low.
KKD 11/23 BO 35.58 -1.42 39.03 45.55 891K 1M 36.3
Buy Not Hit. Falling out of the pattern with a thud.
KWD 12/14 cup hdl 26.53 -1.07 29.17 33.98 111K 200K 26.96
Buy Not Hit. Ditto.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 2.8 -0.1 3.22 4.35 100K 145K 3.32
Current.
LLY 12/09 Test 18 62.64 -1.32 66.25 75 2.5M 6.2M 61.61
Buy Not Hit.
LMLP 12/07 cup hdl 13.59 -0.01 10.75 12.96 541K 135K 11
Buy Not Issued.
LMLP 11/23 cup hdl 13.59 -0.01 9.75 14.25 541K 135K 11
Current. Big volume doji as it held its gains.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 38.2 -0.6 0 0 4.2M 0 0
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 16 +0.19 17.05 20.55 597K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit. Edging higher after holding the 18 December 2002 on the low.
MEOH 11/04 BO 9.03 -0.15 9.03 10.88 267K 375K 8.30
Current. Reversed the move on some rising volume after hitting 9.29 again. That has been stopping the last two rally attempts. Needs to hold at 9.
MRGE 12/10 Test BO 6.6 -0.01 7.25 9 24K 79K 6.74
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, showing a tight doji on continued low volume.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56.86 -1.44 59.15 67 5.4M 9.5M 56.65
Current. Turned back below the short term MVA.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 53.53 -0.83 56.61 62.75 31M 67M 54.45
Current. Still at the 50 day MVA.
MVL 11/04 BO 8.5 -0.25 8.74 10.75 481K 400K 8.35
Current. Moving back down below the short term MVA on rising, above average volume. Second try and cannot make the move. Not good action.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 94.36 +3.1 0 0 1.9M 1.7M 0
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.68 -0.55 13.05 16.15 21M 35M 11.35
Current. Pulled back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Holding up well.
OSTK 11/16 cup hdl 12 -1.3 10.65 16.05 183K 125K 12.75
Current. Thudded below the 18 day on volume. Needs to hold 12 and recover.
OSTK 11/16 Test BO 12 -1.3 14.48 18 183K 125K 12.55
Current.
PENN 12/14 Put 15.71 -0.69 16.55 14 449K 300K 17.65
Current. Nice drop.
PG 09/21 Test 18 87.37 -0.03 91.55 103 3.1M 5.5M 89.45
PIXR 11/20 BO 59.56 -1.8 57.85 66 670K 775K 57.65
Current. Back to the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.75 -0.42 25.51 30.55 379K 450K 26.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
PRA 12/11 cup hdl 20.29 -0.1 20.26 24.32 61K 145K 19.05
Buy Not Issued. Holding up well. Needs a trigger.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.35 -1.19 40.85 50 13M 18M 37.99
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.35 -1.19 34.78 42 13M 18M 38.14
Current. Fell below the short term MVA but still a rather orderly pullback.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.37 -1.41 41.4 50 11M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 36.37 -1.41 36.48 0 11M 12M 37
Current. At the simple 50 day MVA on the close.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 48.2 +0.94 58.02 66.45 503K 701K 53.96
ROK 12/14 cup hdl 20.87 -0.5 21.89 6.25 610K 1M 19.95
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered to the 10 day to close. Volume was lower; a test.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 26.68 -0.16 26.7 32.45 355K 188K 24.25
Current. Looks ready again.
SFNT 11/06 cup hdl 26.68 -0.16 20.78 25 355K 188K 25.45
Current.
SLR 11/23 A Wedge 3.38 -0.18 4 5.45 7.6M 9.5M 3.74
Current. At the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Need to see a solid bounce this time.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 31.85 +0.14 35.25 40 509K 787K 32.78
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 40.98 -0.7 45.44 51.44 293K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 40.98 -0.7 39.05 46.85 293K 235K 42.05
Current. Was able to recover from the low to hold the 50 day MVA.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.2 -0.8 16.25 19.65 843K 1M 15.11
Current. Down to the 18 December 2002 again.
UNTD 11/02 cup hdl 16.2 -0.8 13.3 16 843K 1M 14.75
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.37 -0.35 9.68 11.75 230K 345K 9
Current. Ditto.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.35 +0.32 17.65 21.45 302K 295K 16.21
Current. Nice volume spike. Looks ready for more.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 24.58 +0.68 24.56 29 195K 175K 22.84
Current. Nice move.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 17.29 -0.75 19.76 20 6.5M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
WM 07/06 Cup 35.91 -0.74 0 0 2.3M 5.5M 0
WSM 12/07 BO 27.1 -0.23 28.15 33 1.7M 1.8M 26.18
Current. Down to the 18 day MVA on rising volume, but showed a doji.
XTO 12/18 Flat 25.1 -0.1 25.65 30.75 823K 1.1M 23.85
New.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 16.8 -0.72 17.32 22.75 6.6M 20M 16.11
Buy Not Issued. Holding up well.
ZQK 11/05 DB hdl 27.3 -0.59 25.22 30.25 130K 425K 25.74
Current. Nice doji at the 10 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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