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us stock market, trading system
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good moves: BWS; PENN
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
NEW PLAYS: Splitting stocks are often market leaders and thus we do not just focus on them at points where they are expected to announce or before they actually split. They provide many opportunities to invest in them and this section is where we can look at some former split stocks and other stocks that are in good position to make us money. In addition, there are emerging trends in the recent move off of the double bottom, and we want to capture those stocks emerging from the obscurity as well.
Upside:
ESPD (Espeed Inc.--$17.16; -0.08; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/espd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ESPD broke out of its 7-month cup base in November, and has rallied up to 19. It is now testing that breakout, droppign to the 10 day MVA (16.85) on lower volume, showing a doji on that level Thursday. During the base the accumulation was excellent at 10 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Money flow continues to run up ahead of the stock as relative strength has broken out. Looking to pick it up off of this bounce.
Volume: 654.742K Avg Volume: 461.09K
BUY POINT: $17.45 Volume=675K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.03
POSITION: ENU EC - May $15c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/espd.html
New Post-Split Plays:
DAKT (Daktronics--$13.92; +0.13; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DAKT moved in a very tight flat base since May, sporting excellent accumulation at 6 up weeks on rising volume to just 2 down weeks on rising volume. In November DAKT blasted off, breaking out of the base on some massive volume. It flew up to 15, tested back to the 18 day MVA (now at 13), and has ridden up that MVA since. It has some resistance at 14, trying but failing to take that out Thursday on a big volume spike. We are looking for a break over 14 on volume as our entry point. This is one of the hottest sectors in the market.
Volume: 167.672K Avg Volume: 58.59K
BUY POINT: $14.54 Volume=150K Target=$17.45 Stop=$13.52
POSITION: QKC GV - July $12.50c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
LSTR (Landstar System--$55.78; +1.58; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge/trading range. A rather ragged pattern, but LSTR has found its groove as the economy improves, rallying off the bottom of the 5-month trading range, riding up the short term moving averages all the way. Pulled back this week as it approached the old high at 56 and then jumped up Thursday contrary to the market as the economic news continues to improve; that is good for truckers. Volume was not there, but the accumulation in the pattern is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. Need to see the volume jump in on the break over resistance.
Volume: 75.6K Avg Volume: 148.363K
BUY POINT: $56.42 Volume=220K Target=$62.42 Stop=$53.05
POSITION: QRY DK - April $55c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lstr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 12/07/2002
ALN (Allen Telecom--$10.02; +0.02; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aln.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Again, a very good sector. ALN is moving laterally, consolidating the move off the 18 day MVA started last week. As it moves laterally at 10 the 10 day MVA is rising up to meet it. ALN showed a doji Thursday as volume jumped up to near average. Looks ready to start the next run.
Volume: 263K Avg Volume: 250.136K
BUY POINT: New: $10.15 (orig. $9.86). Volume=412K Target=$11.85 Stop=$9.17
POSITION: ALN FU - June $7.50c (75 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aln.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
AMLN (Amylin Pharmaceuticals--$17.5; +0.35; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amln.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Showing no wear and tear as is the rest of the market. Tried to run Thursday as did the market, but settled back to the 10 day MVA on the close as volume jumped up to above average levels. Very solid still as it rides up the 50 day MVA on excellent accumulation at 11 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks since March. Looking for that breakout.
Volume: 943.208K Avg Volume: 971.681K
BUY POINT: $18.75 Volume=750K Target=$22.75 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: AQM DC - April. $15c (72 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amln.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
ATRS (Altiris--$13.2; +0.09; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrs.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Not much change, holding the 18 day MVA with a hammer doji Thursday as volume started back up. The volume spike along with the one last Friday indicate there is accumulation ongoing and that we should be ready for ATRS to make the breakout. Outstanding accumulation (9 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks).
Volume: 120.2K Avg Volume: 137.863K
BUY POINT: $14.05 Volume=200K Target=$18 Stop=$19.96
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atrs.html
Play Date: 10/07/2002
BCGI (Boston Communications--$13.25; -0.06; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. A strong mover for us in October and November, BCGI is now making the inevitable test of the 50 day MVA as rising stocks periodically do. Holding right at the November consolidation point (13), BCGI looks ready to continue its move higher as money flow continues to lead higher.
Volume: 211.862K Avg Volume: 231.272K
BUY POINT: $13.75 Volume=250K Target=$16.50 Stop=$12.55
POSITION: QGB CV - Mar. $12.50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcgi.html
Play Date: 11/05/2002
CVD (Covance--$23.53; +0.65; optionable): Business research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. CVD has been moving very well in this market, using the recent selling as a pullback on lower volume after the early December test of the 50 day MVA. That was a good entry point and this looks as if it will be another good entry point as CVD held Thursday and started back up even as the rest of the market sold down. Leaders do that and CVD is a leader. Looking for more positions on a further move up on some more volume.
Volume: 323.9K Avg Volume: 408.545K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=581K Target=$28 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvd.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
IDXC (IDX Systems--$17.65; -0.35; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IDXC blasted off 7 sessions back on huge volume. It immediately tested back but then started higher on once again increasing volume, rising up the 10 day MVA (17.25). It has a constant high at 18 and is building pressure from below. Excellent buying ongoing and is building for another breakout.
Volume: 74.295K Avg Volume: 137.954K
BUY POINT: New: $18.25 (orig. $17.65) Volume=163K Target=$21.55 Stop=$16.35
POSITION: XQW EC - May $15c (72 delta, no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxc.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
IGEN (Igen International--$42.22; -0.13; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igen.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another stock looks great in the best sector in the market (besides gold that will fall as soon as the Iraq thing is over just as it did in 1991). Ascending wedge the past three weeks, IGEN has been riding up the 10 day MVA with a constant top at 43. That is building pressure from the low and ready to make a further move higher to continue the breakout. Money flow is still leading higher.
Volume: 340.482K Avg Volume: 237.954K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=450K Target=$49.55 Stop=$40.04
POSITION: GQ FH - June $40c (66 delta) or GQ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igen.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
MATK (Martek Biosciences--$22.31; +0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MATK blasted off the 50 day MVA Friday and in this week's selling has settled back gently to the 10 day MVA on lower volume, showing a doji as it does. Thursday's doji was very tight. Looks as if MATK is ready to make its move back up off of this test. Huge money flow.
Volume: 162.203K Avg Volume: 219.954K
BUY POINT: $23.39 Volume=300K Target=$27.94 Stop=$21.45
POSITION: KQT FD - June $20c and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matk.html
Play Date: 12/10/2002
NTAI (Nam Tai Electronics--$24.63; -0.06; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NTAI provided the big volume breakout and is now giving the first test, dipping back to the 10 day MVA on Thursday's low (24.35) and closing with a tight 'hammer' doji at that level. After a pullback that would indicate a move back up is ahead, i.e., that the test is over. Looking to pick up more positions on the move back up.
Volume: 76.3K Avg Volume: 95.181K
BUY POINT: New: 25.55 (orig. $24.85). Volume=175K Target=$28.75 Stop=$24.25
POSITION: QNA FX - June $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntai.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
VRNT (Verint Systems--$18.16; +0.22; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very nice wedge on the 18 day MVA (17.55) as the stock holds that MVA as support on the low working toward the high just over 19. Excellent accumulation and money flow has started to shoot back up.
Volume: 157.091K Avg Volume: 159.227K
BUY POINT: New: 19.35 (orig. $15.85) Volume=113K Target=$24 (orig. positions $19.15) Stop=$15.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrnt.html
Play Date: 12/17/2002
VSAT (Viasat--$11.22; +0.06; optionable): Communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Lower volume pullback to the 18 day MVA as VSAT continues to test that late November move. Looking for VSAT to hold here, make a higher low, and then move to the new breakout. Accumulation is positive at 8 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks and money flow continues to move up ahead of the stock as price moves sideways.
Volume: 104.225K Avg Volume: 206.5K
BUY POINT: $12.26 Volume=320K Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.35
POSITION: IQS EB - May $10c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsat.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/18/2002
ESRX (Express Scripts--$47.43; -0.52; optionable): Mail prescription services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the high (49.05) and fell from there, breaking below 48 on the fall as volume started to rise. Making the further breakdown in the downtrend.
Volume: 1.389M Avg Volume: 1.769M
BUY POINT: New: $47.35 (orig. $47.65). Volume=1.5M Target=$44 Stop=$49.05
POSITION: XTO NJ - Feb. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$44.53; +0.82; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied back up to the 18 day MVA on the close on some slightly higher volume. Want it to fail here.
Volume: 563.345K Avg Volume: 603.136K
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$41.06
POSITION: HQE MI - Jan. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$43.7; +0.45; optionable): Medial supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: New high. BSX is a continuing play, and Thursday it moved to a new high on rising though still below average volume. The stock has made a stellar move up the 18 day MVA the past 2.5 months and it is going to be due for a deeper test toward 40 in the not too distant future. However, we are looking at a few more stock positions on another volume move higher.
Volume: 1.968M Avg Volume: 2.593M
BUY POINT: New: 44.05 (orig. $37.75) Volume=3.3M Target=Initial $45.75 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: Stock for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
EXPE (Expedia--$66.91; -1.17; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Back to the 50 day MVA on the close as EXPE is still working on its handle to the 7.5 month base. Again, the breakout is up at 78, but if there is a strong volume move over 72.50 we will start building further positions.
Volume: 1.804M Avg Volume: 2.491M
BUY POINT: 72.50; Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3.2M Target=$88 Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$75.53; +1.85; no options): System software. Forecast to announce a split on 1-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon INFY's annual report the company has had a 2 for 1 stock split in the following years 1998, 1999 & 2000. However based upon our research of INFY's charts we cannot confirm this information. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-8-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
STATUS: Rebound. That is about all you can say. INFY was performing well and then was rocked at the beginning of the month. It tested the 200 day MVA and is now on a furious recover, breaking over the 50 day MVA at 71.50 earlier this week. It is pure momentum now, but it is good momentum.
Volume: 149.573K Avg Volume: 166K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 76.05 Volume=165K Target=$92 Stop=$71.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
ROST (Ross Stores--$44.06; -0.11; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-19-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43.30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the low (43.53) and bounced a bit on rising, above average volume. ROST is another stock holding up rather well in the recent selling. Accumulation is positive during the base at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow has turned back up ahead of the stock as it has worked laterally the past two weeks.
Volume: 1.228M Avg Volume: 1.072M
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: REQ EV - May $42.50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$53.49; +0.17; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving laterally, testing the breakout point at 54 on the highs. Thursday it did so again on continued above average volume. There is a lot of interest in WFMI as the volume indicates. It is looking for a big breakout soon.
Volume: 862.071K Avg Volume: 680.545K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/05/2002
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$27.15; -0.08; optionable): Pacific Sunwear. Splits 3:2 on 12-31-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Okay. Has come back to test the 18 day MVA on the close, holding there with a big doji that reached down and recovered well as volume jumped. This is what we look for in these plays: doji at support indicates a move back up.
Volume: 1.348M Avg Volume: 1.042M
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$33 Stop=$25.95
POSITION: PVQ FE - June $25c (71 delta, low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/09/2002
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$33.76; +1.58; optionable): Air delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
STATUS: Rebound. What a recovery. EXPD broke the 18 day MVA at 33 Tuesday and Wednesday, but then exploded higher Thursday on the economic news. Volume was huge. Looks ready for new positions here.
Volume: 1.478M Avg Volume: 614.09K
BUY POINT: New: $34.05 (orig. $32.08). Volume=750K Target=$38 Stop=$32.45
POSITION: URP BF - Feb. $30c (62 delta) or URP EF - May $30c (62 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
FAST (Fastenal Company--$38.31; +0.48; optionable): Fasteners.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big volume spike Thursday and a strong move though it gave back half the gain. Ready to rumble..
Volume: 1.633M Avg Volume: 678.136K
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=995K Target=$43 Stop=$35.85
POSITION: FQA EG - may $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fast.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$36.67; +0.22; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. JEC is still moving laterally on below average volume, riding up the 10 day MVA (36.65) as it does. Money flow is shooting up ahead of the stock as it moves sideways, and relative strength just broke out, a very bullish sign for a breakout to come.
Volume: 210.9K Avg Volume: 293.454K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=465K Target=$42 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: JEC DF - April $30c (80 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
trading system
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