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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Plays for Thursday:
ESRX: Starting the further fall on rising volume.
SFNT: Dumped lower to the 18 day MVA though volume did back off.
UTHR: Nice, tight doji at the 18 day MVA.
XTO: Very nice doji on the 10 day MVA. Looks very ready.
Best Plays:
1) BEAS: Big money flow.
2) NTES: Lots of momentum and buying.
3) BCGI: Wireless will not sell off.
4) Continuing: ALN is solid. AVID looks ready to continue the move. EBAY is holding up well. DANKY is starting the move.
New Plays:
Play Date: 12/19/2002
BEAS (Bea Systems--$11.12; -0.36; optionable): Business software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beas.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Taking another look at BEAS here after it has recovered from its early December dip. It broke over the 200 day MVA in late November and was in a nice test when the market dumped. It tested the 200 day MVA again and has now returned to the point where it started to sell back down. Volume the past three sessions has been excellent, helped no doubt by ORCL and its announcement. Thursday it rallied ot 11.90 on the high but gave back the move as the rest of the market sold back. Volume backed off from Wednesday's level when the stock rose. Money flow is racing up ahead of the stock, even higher than it was in late November when the stock was at the current price. That is a positive divergence that we like to see. Accumulation is also solid in the base, coming in at 12 to 8 since January. Very solid.
Volume: 13.698M Avg Volume: 10.372M
BUY POINT: $11.77 Volume=16M Target=$14.74 Stop=$10.75
POSITION: BUC FU - June $7.50c (87 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/beas.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
C (Citigroup--$37; -0.15; optionable): Big bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA. Looking at C and some of the other large cap stocks and financials it is hard to buy into the argument that the market is breaking down. That was argued in the early November pullback as we reported, and it is being argued now. C, a major financial stock, is showing a doji at the 200 day MVA as it moves in something of an ascending wedge the past two months. C looks ready to move back up, and in a continuation of the market rally this would be a good stock to stick away in the portfolio.
Volume: 16.148M Avg Volume: 19.795M
BUY POINT: $38.05 Volume=25M Target=$46 Stop=$35.39
POSITION: C FG - June $35c (68 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/c.html
NTES (Netease.com--$10.49; +0.52; no options): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Massive breakout Tuesday on volume has pulled back to test the 10 day MVA (9.55), tapping that level on the Thursday low and rebounding for a gain. Accumulation since late August is excellent at 5 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week. Nice breakout test, and looking to pick it up on the next strong volume move higher.
Volume: 588.411K Avg Volume: 278.318K
BUY POINT: $10.94 Volume=550K Target=$13.25 Stop=$9.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntes.html
Revisited:
Play Date: 10/07/2002
BCGI (Boston Communications--$13.25; -0.06; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. A strong mover for us in October and November, BCGI is now making the inevitable test of the 50 day MVA as rising stocks periodically do. Holding right at the November consolidation point (13), BCGI looks ready to continue its move higher as money flow continues to lead higher.
Volume: 211.862K Avg Volume: 231.272K
BUY POINT: $13.75 Volume=250K Target=$16.50 Stop=$12.55
POSITION: QGB CV - Mar. $12.50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bcgi.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not covered every report, but when something interesting is developing we take note.
Time for a new subscriber survey for new stocks to stock the portfolio. Start your votes so we can start the new year with a new batch of your favorite stocks.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$OEX 12/07 Test 50 78.66 -0.47 466.74 486 7.3M 1.5M 455.45
Exited.
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 3.18 -0.21 335.15 385 4.5M 0 313.94
Current. Doji at potential support. If the market bounces we are looking at adding some aggressive positions.
AIG 12/18 Put 58.09 -0.95 58.55 54 6.1M 7M 60.45
Current. Nice drop. Added this as a bonus alert.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.02 +0.02 9.86 11.85 263K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.02 +0.02 7.28 9.75 263K 200K 8.94
Current. Flying plateau forming. Could be getting ready for the next up move here.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 21.69 -0.41 22.85 29.65 5.9M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 cup hdl 21.69 -0.41 20.32 24.38 5.9M 10M 21.75
Current. Gapped lower but held the recent trading range.
ANT 12/11 Put 21.8 -0.3 22.45 20 41K 200K 23.55
Current. Another fall but on very low volume.
ATML 12/11 Test 18 2.39 -0.15 3.45 5 12M 20M 3.05
Buy Not Hit.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 21.36 +0.41 21 25 701K 500K 19.53
Current. Looks ready to move again.
AVID 10/30 cup hdl 21.36 +0.41 15.65 20.45 701K 177K 17.85
Current.
BCGI 10/07 cup hdl 13.25 -0.06 11.25 14 212K 250K 10.95
New buy point.
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 11.12 -0.36 11.77 14.74 14M 16M 10.75
New.
BMRN 11/21 BO 7.21 -0.05 7.95 11 275K 750K 7.29
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA.
BRCM 11/16 CCall 15.33 -0.57 15.9 20 12M 15M 14.79
Current.
C 12/19 A Wedge 37 -0.15 38.05 46 16M 25M 35.39
New.
CCK 11/21 BO 8.4 -0.02 8.6 11 1.1M 1.8M 7.74
Current. Nice doji on the 18 day MVA. Looking ready to move up again.
CGX 12/03 cup hdl 23.48 -0.02 22 26.45 54K 65K 21.05
Current. Pulling back on lower volume. Very orderly pullback.
CNMD 12/09 Put 19.09 -0.05 17.97 15.75 74K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit. Having a hard time at the 50 day MVA.
CPWM 11/13 cup hdl 28.78 -0.25 31.05 36.45 392K 471K 29.55
Current. Holding the 200 day MVA as volume spiked up.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.54 -0.02 7.38 8.85 666K 346K 6.55
Current. Holding up well in the selling market.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.54 -0.02 4.28 8 666K 346K 6.55
Current.
CREE 12/10 Test 50 17.5 -0.27 19.65 24.25 1.9M 4.1M 18.27
Current. Doji. Looking for a bounce up over 19 in a chip recovery.
CUB 07/06 Cup 18.54 +0.48 0 0 91K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 cup hdl 4.57 +0.22 4.62 5.65 653K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Issued. Got a volume shot and rallied, but did not close at the breakout point. Ready tomorrow.
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.8 -0.07 3.04 4.05 33K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Issued. Still working laterally above the 18 day MVA on low volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 68.73 -0.64 69.45 77 4.9M 12M 65.94
Current. Very nice, holding at the 18 day MVA in the selling.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 68.73 -0.64 62.45 71 4.9M 12M 65.45
Current.
ECL 10/30 cup hdl 46.97 -0.3 49.11 56.55 261K 1M 47.25
Current.
ESRX 12/18 Put 47.43 -0.52 47.65 44 1.4M 1.5M 49.05
Buy Not issued. Ready to move.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 3.99 -0.11 4.05 5.97 70K 100K 4.05
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA with a doji and a volume spike.
FOX 11/05 cup hdl 25.82 -0.67 27.15 32.45 2M 1.5M 25.25
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA and bounced.
GPS 12/16 cup hdl 15.93 +0.28 16.81 20.15 4.6M 9M 15.63
Buy Not Hit. Looking solid like Morgan Fairchild (whom I have seen naked).
GRMN 11/06 cup hdl 28.15 +0.59 22.34 30 483K 198K 25.95
Current. Starting back up. Solid.
GYMB 09/18 cup hdl 19.05 +0.55 19.64 22.45 672K 586K 18.27
Current.
HLTH 12/12 cup hdl 8.33 -0.32 8.85 11.35 2M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit. Struggling a bit at the 18 day MVA.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 24 -0.31 23.9 28 707K 1.5M 21.81
Current.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29.49 +0.49 30.18 35.25 318K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready again, holding the 18 day MVA. Transportation is doing well.
LBIX 10/14 cup hdl 2.87 +0.07 3.22 4.35 141K 145K 3.32
Current. Looks like it is making a higher low.
LLY 12/09 Test 18 62.5 -0.14 66.25 75 3M 6.2M 61.61
Buy Not Hit.
LMLP 12/07 cup hdl 13.59 0 10.75 12.96 294K 135K 11
Buy Not Issued. Nice lateral move after the big gain.
LMLP 11/23 cup hdl 13.59 0 9.75 14.25 294K 135K 11
Current.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 37.8 -0.4 0 0 4.1M 0 0
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 15.75 -0.25 17.05 20.55 595K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit.
MEOH 11/04 BO 8.99 -0.04 9.03 10.88 322K 375K 8.30
Current. some rising volume as it heads toward the 10 day MVA. needs to hold here.
MRGE 12/10 Test BO 6.4 -0.2 7.25 9 45K 79K 6.74
Buy Not Hit.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56.28 -0.58 59.15 67 5.2M 9.5M 56.65
Current. Doji at the 50 day MVA.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 53.11 -0.42 56.61 62.75 41M 67M 54.45
Current. doji at the 200 day MVA.
MVL 11/04 BO 8.42 -0.08 8.74 10.75 130K 400K 8.35
Current. Doji at the 50 day MVA.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 94.85 +0.49 0 0 2.5M 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 10.49 +0.52 10.94 13.25 588K 550K 9.96
New.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 12.91 +0.23 13.05 16.15 20M 35M 11.35
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA still and looks ready to crawl back up.
OSTK 11/16 cup hdl 12.24 +0.24 10.65 16.05 154K 125K 12.75
Current. Big reach down to the 50 day MVA on the low and a rebound.
OSTK 11/16 Test BO 12.24 +0.24 14.48 18 154K 125K 12.55
Current.
PENN 12/14 Put 15.26 -0.45 16.55 14 902K 300K 17.65
Current. Tanking on volume.
PG 09/21 Test 18 85.7 -1.67 91.55 103 4.6M 5.5M 89.45
PIXR 11/20 BO 59.2 -0.36 57.85 66 992K 775K 57.65
Current. Held the 18 day MVA with a doji. Ready to bounce from the look of it.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 26.73 -0.02 25.51 30.55 478K 450K 26.25
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA.
PRA 12/11 cup hdl 20.57 +0.28 20.26 24.32 73K 145K 19.05
Buy Not Issued. Just now showing the volume.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 37.64 -0.71 40.85 50 14M 18M 37.99
Current. At the 50 day MVA. Looks as if it will hold.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 37.64 -0.71 34.78 42 14M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 36.64 +0.27 41.4 50 12M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 36.64 +0.27 36.48 0 12M 12M 37
Current.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 47.87 -0.33 58.02 66.45 547K 701K 53.96
ROK 12/14 cup hdl 20.58 -0.29 21.89 6.25 491K 1M 19.95
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 25.14 -1.54 26.7 32.45 243K 188K 24.25
Current. Surprising dump to the 18 day MVA; at least volume contracted.
SFNT 11/06 cup hdl 25.14 -1.54 20.78 25 243K 188K 25.45
Current.
SLR 11/23 A Wedge 3.28 -0.1 4 5.45 5.8M 9.5M 3.74
Exited.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 31.81 -0.04 35.25 40 306K 787K 32.78
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 39.95 -1.03 45.44 51.44 263K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 39.95 -1.03 39.05 46.85 263K 235K 42.05
Current. Closed below the 50 day MVA but on below. Showing some weakness it has not shown & chart getting a toppy look. Needs to recover fast.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 15.41 -0.79 16.25 19.65 572K 1M 15.11
Current. Through the 18 day MVA but on lower volume. Has to hold at 15.
UNTD 11/02 cup hdl 15.41 -0.79 13.3 16 572K 1M 14.75
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.75 +0.32 9.68 11.75 197K 345K 9
Current. Nice recovery off the 18 day MVA.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.33 -0.02 17.65 21.45 198K 295K 16.21
Current. Holding well with a doji over the 18 day MVA on continued above average volume.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 24.43 -0.15 24.56 29 206K 175K 22.84
Current. Took a breather after the Wednesday move.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 16.43 -0.86 19.76 20 14M 8.5M 17.45
Current. Bought another software company and took a bit of a hit. Good acquisition.
WM 07/06 Cup 35.28 -0.63 0 0 3.9M 5.5M 0
WSM 12/07 BO 26.92 -0.18 28.15 33 1.8M 1.8M 26.18
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on solid volume.
XTO 12/18 Flat 25.1 0 25.65 30.75 718K 1.1M 23.85
Buy Not Hit. Looks super.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 16.71 -0.09 17.32 22.75 11M 20M 16.11
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounded on some volume.
ZQK 11/05 DB hdl 26.63 -0.67 25.22 30.25 705K 425K 25.74
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the low and rallied up from there on huge volume. Needs to settle down and resume the move.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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