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trading system, top stock pick
Begin Part 3 of 3
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 11/23/2002
ATRS (Altiris--$13.54; +0.34; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrs.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still working patiently through the pattern, holding the 18 day MVA on the low again and rallying up fractionally Friday as volume was up for the second session. All we can do on this one is continue to wait for the buy point to be hit. Outstanding accumulation (9 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks).
Volume: 120.9K Avg Volume: 167.4K
BUY POINT: $14.05 Volume=200K Target=$18 Stop=$19.96
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atrs.html
Play Date: 10/07/2002
BCGI (Boston Communications--$13.75; +0.5; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcgi.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Started the jump off the 50 day MVA Friday with a huge volume surge as institutions were interested once again at picking up wireless stocks. This is what we were looking for and BCGI is a buy here on continued upside.
Volume: 615.5K Avg Volume: 250K
BUY POINT: $13.75 Volume=250K Target=$16.50 Stop=$12.55
POSITION: QGB CV - Mar. $12.50c (66 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcgi.html
Play Date: 11/05/2002
CVD (Covance--$24.02; +0.49; optionable): Business research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. CVD made the test and has started higher but volume has not risen on the move. In this market we would rather not move in without seeing volume. If it breaks to a new high on strong volume that is another matter and a new entry point.
Volume: 329.2K Avg Volume: 405K
BUY POINT: New: 24.35 (orig. $23.65) Volume=581K Target=$28 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvd.html
ESPD (Espeed Inc.--$17.75; +0.59; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/espd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the test of the breakout at the 10 day MVA just under 17, ESPD was on the rise Friday but it was not getting any volume. Not a major problem as it has enjoyed solid volume all round on the moves higher, but an average volume day would give a bit more confidence in the move. During the base the accumulation was excellent at 10 accumulation weeks to 4 distribution weeks. Money flow continues to move up ahead of the stock as relative strength has broken out.
Volume: 450.1K Avg Volume: 510K
BUY POINT: $17.45 Volume=675K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.03
POSITION: ENU EC - May $15c (73 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/espd.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
IDXC (IDX Systems--$17.55; -0.1; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Started to make the move Friday on a small increase in volume, but gave it back and ended at the 10 day MVA once again. Still building that pressure from below with that solid accumulation on going.
Volume: 113.8K Avg Volume: 135K
BUY POINT: New: $18.25 (orig. $17.65) Volume=163K Target=$21.55 Stop=$16.35
POSITION: XQW EC - May $15c (72 delta, no OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxc.html
Play Date: 12/19/2002
IGEN (Igen International--$41.96; -0.26; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igen.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still building that solid small ascending wedge, moving up the 10 and 18 day MVA with a constant top at 43. Another stock that is building pressure up from below. A lot of life in this stock and a lot of solid volume this month. Good sector and one of the better stocks in that sector.
Volume: 386.7K Avg Volume: 235K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=450K Target=$49.55 Stop=$40.04
POSITION: GQ FH - June $40c (66 delta) or GQ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igen.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
MATK (Martek Biosciences--$24.94; +2.63; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Making the breakout on some huge volume, making the move we were anticipating. A solid move that is still a buy at this point but not much further.
Volume: 1.029M Avg Volume: 243K
BUY POINT: New: up to 25.15 (orig. $23.39) Volume=300K Target=$27.94 Stop=$21.45
POSITION: KQT FD - June $20c and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matk.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
MRK (Merck & Co.--$56.36; +0.08; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrk.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. MRK ran up and hit our original buy point and then has frittered away much of its late November gain. Thursday and Friday, however, the stock found support above its 50 day MVA (55.59), showing a pair of doji's with volume jumping back over average Friday. After an orderly pullback a doji over support is a very positive signal. We still need to see the stock turn back up on stronger volume, but this one looks pretty darn solid.
Volume: 8.875M Avg Volume: 7.5M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=9.5M Target=$67 Stop=$55.94
POSITION: MRK DK - April $55c (69 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrk.html
Play Date: 11/23/2002
VRNT (Verint Systems--$17.85; -0.31; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in that nice consolidation wedge after the strong move up in late November/early December. Friday VRNT started up but did not have the volume to maintain the move. Still very solid with excellent accumulation and money flow that is still moving up ahead of the price.
Volume: 89.4K Avg Volume: 195K
BUY POINT: New: 19.35 (orig. $15.85) Volume=113K Target=$24 (orig. positions $19.15) Stop=$15.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrnt.html
Play Date: 12/17/2002
VSAT (Viasat--$12.18; +0.96; optionable): Communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Charged up Friday on rising, above average volume. Not huge volume, but a solid increase over the recent below average volume on the test. Hit the buy intraday and then pulled back on the close just below that level. A buy on a further move up. Accumulation is positive at 8 accumulation weeks to 6 distribution weeks.
Volume: 260K Avg Volume: 220K
BUY POINT: $12.26 Volume=320K Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.35
POSITION: IQS EB - May $10c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsat.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/18/2002
ESRX (Express Scripts--$46.86; -0.57; optionable): Mail prescription services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Put. Again tapped the 10 day MVA on the high (48.51) and fell on sharply higher, above average volume. It hit 45.83 on the low and staged a late comeback, bu tit did nothing to change the downtrend. It may try to continue the test back up Monday and again hit the 10 day MVA as it has done the past week before it turns and falls again. We will use that as an entry point.
Volume: 2.42M Avg Volume: 1.769M
BUY POINT: New: after a test of 48.50, 47.95 (orig. $47.65). Volume=1.5M Target=$44 Stop=$49.05
POSITION: XTO NJ - Feb. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$44.72; +0.19; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. Big jump up to 46 on the high as volume surged, but HSIC could not maintain the move and closed flat and just below the 18 day MVA. Begin careful here given the volume that surged in, but if it could not hold the move Friday it looks ready to go back down.
Volume: 3.28M Avg Volume: 630K
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$41.06
POSITION: HQE MI - Jan. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/21/2002
SYK (Stryker--$66.4; +1.14; optionable): Medical supplies and instruments. Forecast to announce a split early 2003. We are still pinpointing a date.
Background: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 2003 at a price of $65.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a strong run off of the July low that saw SYK gain over $20, the stock has started moving laterally over the 50 day MVA (63.50), forming the current bullish pattern it is using to consolidate its gains. The pattern is solid as SYK used the 50 day MVA as the bottom of the base while accumulation during the consolidation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. After trading below average for the month, volume surged back to above average levels Friday. Looks ready to make the breakout from the pattern.
Volume: 856.8K Avg Volume: 775K
BUY POINT: $67.53 Volume=1.2M Target=$77.62 Stop=$62.84
POSITION: SYK FM - June $65c (70 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/19/2002
BSX (Boston Scientific--$44.18; +0.48; optionable): Medial supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 2-4-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-27-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: New high. Continuing the move higher, breaking to a new 3 year high and just 2 points from an all-time high. Volume was up again on the move; not strong, but close to average on the gain as you want to see. From here we will wait for the next entry point on the next test of the short term MVA.
Volume: 2.161M Avg Volume: 2.2M
BUY POINT: No new positions for now. (orig. 44.05; $37.75) Volume=3.3M Target=Initial $45.75 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: Stock for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
EXPE (Expedia--$68.43; +1.52; optionable): Online travel. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that EXPE has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Off the 50 day MVA Friday but could not gather any volume as it posted a slight gain. Still trying to consolidate in the handle and shake out those last sellers to free it to move higher. The breakout is up at 78, but if there is a strong volume move over 72.50 we will start building further positions.
Volume: 1.405M Avg Volume: 2.491M
BUY POINT: 72.50; Breakout: $78.25 Volume=3.2M Target=$88 Stop=$72.77
POSITION: UED DO - April $75c (61 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expe.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$74.1; -1.43; no options): System software. Forecast to announce a split on 1-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Based upon INFY's annual report the company has had a 2 for 1 stock split in the following years 1998, 1999 & 2000. However based upon our research of INFY's charts we cannot confirm this information. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-8-02. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
STATUS: Rebound. The rebound on Thursday did not all hold up, but the Friday selling was not severe as EXPE fell back to the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Strange action in a rising market, but then again, INFY was up Wednesday and Thursday when the market was down. A modest test and it looks as if INFY is going to try and continue the move after taking a breather after a week of gains.
Volume: 50.6K Avg Volume: 166K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 76.05 Volume=165K Target=$92 Stop=$71.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
ROST (Ross Stores--$42.45; -1.61; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 3-19-03 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43.30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. The breakout test turned into high volume selling Friday as ROST crashed through the 50 day MVA at 43.35. The pattern was quite promising; perhaps ROST can recover the 50 day MVA early this week. This was not, however, the move we were looking for and now ROST has to rebuild itself. Accumulation is positive during the base at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 5.685M Avg Volume: 1.072M
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.64
POSITION: REQ EV - May $42.50c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Play Date: 10/28/2002
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$53.19; -0.3; optionable): Health food grocery. Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continuing to hold the 10 day MVA on the close, WFMI again reached up to 54/30 on the high but could not hold the move. Volume was extraordinary, but that is because WFMI is going big time on the Nasdaq 100. A very solid pattern, and a breakout over that top at 54 will be he new entry point.
Volume: 4.159M Avg Volume: 680.545K
BUY POINT: New: 54.05 (orig. $50.11) Volume=975K Target=Initial $57.51 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FMQ BI - Feb. $45c (64 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/05/2002
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$27.46; +0.31; optionable): Pacific Sunwear. Splits 3:2 on 12-31-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: After the Thursday doji PSUN posted a very modest gain Friday on lower, average volume. Not a bad test, but not what we were looking for after the surge up earlier in the week. Still, it is holding up at the 18 day, and the doji is indicative of a move back up from here. That is what we like to do on these, i.e., pick them up off the tests of support with doji's.
Volume: 967.5K Avg Volume: 980K
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$33 Stop=$25.95
POSITION: PVQ FE - June $25c (71 delta, low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
POST-SPLIT
DAKT (Daktronics--$14.1; +0.18; optionable): Scientific & Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tried to make the move over 14 stick but could not quite hit the buy point. DAKT moved in a very tight flat base since May, sporting excellent accumulation at 6 up weeks on rising volume to just 2 down weeks on rising volume. In November DAKT blasted off, breaking out of the base on some massive volume. It flew up to 15, tested back to the 18 day MVA (now at 13), and has ridden up that MVA since. We are looking for a break over 14 on volume as our entry point. This is one of the hottest sectors in the market.
Volume: 131.5K Avg Volume: 58.59K
BUY POINT: $14.54 Volume=150K Target=$17.45 Stop=$13.52
POSITION: QKC GV - July $12.50c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
Play Date: 11/26/2002
FNF (Fidelity National Financial--$32.83; +0.83; optionable): Surety & title insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnf.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. FNF moved out of its bigger ascending wedge in November, and is now testing that move with another small wedge that has formed right on top of the first. Very solid action.
Volume: 646.9K Avg Volume: 650K
BUY POINT: $33.25 Volume=875K Target=$38.25 Stop=$30.92
POSITION: FNF DF - April $30c (76 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fnf.html
Play Date: 11/30/2002
WERN (Werner Enterprises--$22.21; +0.59; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wern.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. WERN is in an 11-month base, working up to the high the past 2.5 months as it forms this ascending wedge at the end of the longer base. Friday WERN enjoyed a mega volume spike as it tapped at the breakout point. These volume spikes show accumulation, rebalancing or not. It is a 'get ready' flag alerting you that the move is coming.
Volume: 1.987M Avg Volume: 370K
BUY POINT: $22.75 Volume=550K Target=$27.35 Stop=$21.16
POSITION: QEH ED - May $20c (74 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wern.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
Our stock summary table program developed a bad case of the pre-holiday bah humbug's and crashed. We have been working all day on it but the fix is not quite in and thus we cannot generate the summary table. We apologize for this and are working to have it up and running for Monday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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