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us stock market, stock research
Begin Part 3 of 3
Downside:
Play Date: 12/21/2002
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$13.36; -0.39; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Put. Head and shoulders breakdown. JAKK was trying to form up a cup base, but after breaking over the 200 day MVA just over 15 it turned right back down, tried to hold up, but then failed. Thursday and Friday JAKK fell through the 50 day MVA (13.68) on above average volume. This puts it not only through support at the 50 day MVA but also the early November consolidation and below the neckline in the pattern. Stocks are said to fall as far as the head was high. That puts JAKK down near 11 as our target.
Volume: 464.4K Avg Volume: 225K
BUY POINT: $13.24 Volume=325K Target=$11 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: UFF OC - Mar. $15p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$23.58; -1.89; optionable): Apparel Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Put. URBN has struggled for 7 months, trying to form a cup base during that time. It made a move over the 200 day MVA a week back, but immediately reversed the following session to close below that key level (now just over 27). It tried one more time to recover but then gave up, plunging through the 50 day MVA Friday on a huge volume spike. Plenty of downside on this move.
Volume: 1.422M Avg Volume: 385K
BUY POINT: $23.36 Volume=500K Target=$20.22 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: URQ OE - Mar. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/19/2002
AMTD (Ameritrade--$5.39; +0.18; optionable): Brokerae services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amtd.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Toying with the move up out of the range, AMTD held steady Friday on slgihtly declining volume. Huge money flow that is racing up ahead of the price and relative strength has already broken out ahead of the stock are very solid indicators.
Volume: 1.492M Avg Volume: 1.242M
BUY POINT: $5.54 Volume=165K Target=$6.85 Stop=$5.15
POSITION: TQA EA - May $5c (79 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amtd.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$11.94; +0.31; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Nice surge Friday off of the 10 day MVA (11.60), rising to close near the recent highs at 12. No volume to speak of, but AVO hit a new closing high and we have a feeling volume will kick in on the move over 12. Accumulation is positive at 4 accumulation weeks (up price on rising volume) to 3 distribution weeks (down price on rising volume). Still patiently waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 39.2K Avg Volume: 141.863K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=210K Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.22
POSITION: AVO DB - April $10c (72 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 11/05/2002
CVD (Covance--$24.02; +0.49; optionable): Business research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. CVD made the test and has started higher but volume has not risen on the move. In this market we would rather not move in without seeing volume. If it breaks to a new high on strong volume that is another matter and a new entry point.
Volume: 329.2K Avg Volume: 405K
BUY POINT: New: 24.35 (orig. $23.65) Volume=581K Target=$28 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: CVD ED - May $20c (68 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 12/14/2002
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$31.86; +0.64; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Pennant. Continues to move in the pennant, holding the short term MVA as the pattern tightens. Volume has remained low during this last part of the pattern as the stock is working as it should. Money flow continues to run up ahead of the price as it moves laterally. Good accumulation is setting up the move (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 183.6K Avg Volume: 230.409K
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=350K Target=$37.85 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (63 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrcy.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
MSN (Emerson Radio--$5.48; +0.03; no options): consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msn.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. MSN has been a great performer, and the past week it has moved laterally, testing the 10 day MVA on the lows (5.25) and 5.75 on the highs as volume backs off. A good and normal test of the short term moving average after the breakout. Stocks tend to do this: breakout, test the short term MVA, then do it all over again. We are looking at new positions as MSN breaks over the recent highs.
Volume: 132.0K Avg Volume: 146.227K
BUY POINT: $5.92 Volume=150K Target=$7.45 Stop=$5.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msn.html
Play Date: 12/21/2002
QCOM (Qualcom--$37.68; +0.04; optionable): Cell phones and cell phone guts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Another QCOM play, but QCOM is showing different action from many of the large technology stocks. Instead of mimicking the head and shoulders patterns of the large indexes, QCOM has pulled back in November, but has held on the low above the October high that marks the left shoulder for most technology and many other large cap stocks. Friday QCOM reached all the way down to 36 and then rebounded to close over the 50 day MVA (37.42, simple); a tight doji with a long tail indicates that buyers jumped back on the stock as it traded below the 50 day MVA intraday. That is what you want to see. After a rather orderly, low volume pullback, QCOM looks ready to recover some of that lost ground as telecom continues to be one of the top performing tech areas.
Volume: 15.628M Avg Volume: 16.5M
BUY POINT: $39.15 Volume=18M Target=$48 Stop=$36.41
POSITION: AAW DU - April $37.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
Play Date: 12/17/2002
RDEN (Elizabeth Arden--$14.55; +0.2; optionable): Makeup
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rden.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through the handle of a 6-month base showing solid accumulation at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. Friday RDEN started up off of the short term MVA on some rising, above average volume. Looking for the breakout.
Volume: 160.4K Avg Volume: 115K
BUY POINT: $15.39 Volume=185K Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.31
POSITION: UWO FV - June $12.50c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rden.html
Play Date: 12/07/2002
SAFC (Safeco--$35.81; +0.93; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/safc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Moving up the 50 day MVA (35) as the bottom of the base. Friday SAFC again jumped off the 50 day, this time on above average volume. Money flow continues to rise ahead of the stock price with accumulation at 2 weeks to 1 distribution week and getting better. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 1.356M Avg Volume: 1.011M
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=1.5M Target=$41 Stop=$34.12
POSITION: SAQ EF - May $30c (70 delta, low OI) or SAQ EG - May $35c (65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/safc.html
Play Date: 12/12/2002
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$13.1; +0.22; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Getting ready to make the breakout, moving off of the 18 day MVA Friday on continued above average volume. Money flow is very strong, leading higher while the stock forms its handle.
Volume: 216.9K Avg Volume: 164K
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=255K Target=$16.98 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 12/16/2002
SFNT (Safenet--$25.95; +0.81; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a massive breakout in November, SAFC spent the first two weeks of December pulling back. Monday it jumped off the 50 day MVA on some strong volume and then pulled back to the 18 day MVA later in the week as the market pulled back as well. Holding the 18 day MVA was a good sign tha the setback was temporary. An early leader, we are looking for more positions as SFNT moves up again on rising volume.
Volume: 116.7K Avg Volume: 233.8K
BUY POINT: $26.7 Volume=188K Target=$32.45 Stop=$24.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sfnt.html
Play Date: 12/02/2002
SJM (JM Smucker--$39.24; +1.58; optionable): Good jam. Has to be.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After blasting up in the breakout in mid-November, SJM tested that move up to Friday, moving down to the 50 day MVA (37.65) and then blasting higher again as volume jumped back above average. That is just how it is supposed to happen. Now we look for SJM to continue the move to move in on the upside buying. Solid accumulation at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Great start of the next move.
Volume: 369.7K Avg Volume: 290.8K
BUY POINT: $40.15 Volume=476K Target=$48 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: SJM DJ - April $35c (77 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sjm.html
Play Date: 12/18/2002
TARO (Taro Pharmaceuticals--$38.48; -0.22; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle to the small cup with handle formed this month that resides in the handle to the larger handle to the 13-month base that bottomed from May to July. TARO has rallied up the 50 day MVA since mid-July. It has just come off of a test of the 50 day MVA just over 36, rising Monday on strong, above average volume. Friday it showed another doji that tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (37.95). Looks very close to makign the move with solid accumulation at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 261.9K Avg Volume: 377K
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=575K Target=$46.85 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: QTT DG - April $35c (66 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/taro.html
Play Date: 12/17/2002
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$12.84; +0.09; optionable): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TTEK just recently broke a year-long downtrend, clearing the 200 day MVA (11.48) in late November and now testing the 10 day MVA near 12.50. Friday it started back up on some rising, above average volume. The test may be over. Accumulation since the first of the year is positive at 11 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume.
Volume: 704.2K Avg Volume: 373K
BUY POINT: $14.01 Volume=600K Target=$16.85 Stop=$13.03
POSITION: TQI FV - June $12.50c (69 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttek.html
Play Date: 11/12/2002
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$17; -0.33; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UTHR showed another doji at the 18 day MVA Friday, this one a 'hammer' doji. These patterns indicate the stock is trying to move up, but it is having trouble holding the moves. It is still in a solid pattern with good accumuation and strong money flow. It will have to make the move soon, however, or risk sliding into all too common mediocrity.
Volume: 149.8K Avg Volume: 163K
BUY POINT: $17.65 Volume=295K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uthr.html
Play Date: 12/04/2002
VZ (Verizon Communications--$40; +1.21; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vz.html
STATUS: 200 day MVA test. Up Friday on some mega volume, gapping over the short term MVA as it did. VZ hit 40.30 on the high but could once again not clear 40 on the close. That is turning out to be a solid resistance point and is right at the early November high, i.e., a point it needs to break over to break up the head and shoulders trying to form. With money flow shooting higher we don't think 40 is going to stop VZ.
Volume: 18.07M Avg Volume: 8.2M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 40.45. Next: $41 Volume=11M Target=$47.5 Stop=$38.13
POSITION: VZ DU - April $37.50c (67 delta) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vz.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/18/2002
AIG (American Intl. Group--$59.07; +0.98; optionable): Property & casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aig.html
STATUS: Put. After tumbling Wednesday and Thursday, AIG found some support Friday and bounced on strong volume. It is still, however, well entrenched in the downtrend. It may test the 10 day MVA near 60, but that is part of how stocks move in a trend. Still plenty of room on the downside.
Volume: 9.127M Avg Volume: 6.46M
BUY POINT: $58.55 Volume=7M Target=$54 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: AIG NL - Feb. $60p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aig.html
Play Date: 12/11/2002
ANT (Anteon Intl.--$22.3; +0.5; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ant.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied to test the 10 day MVA on the close Friday as volume esdge higher but was still quite low. Continuing the downtrend that started in October, the test of the 10 day MVA is not unusual as it continues to work lower. Still needs to get below 22, the next poin to add positions.
Volume: 122.7K Avg Volume: 259K
BUY POINT: New: 21.88 (orig. $22.45) Volume=200K Target=$20 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ANT ME - Jan. $25p (-64 delta, low OI) or ANT PX - April $22.50p (-40 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ant.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
HSIC (Henry Schein--$44.72; +0.19; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
STATUS: Put. Big jump up to 46 on the high as volume surged, but HSIC could not maintain the move and closed flat and just below the 18 day MVA. Begin careful here given the volume that surged in, but if it could not hold the move Friday it looks ready to go back down.
Volume: 3.28M Avg Volume: 630K
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=667K Target=$40 Stop=$41.06
POSITION: HQE MI - Jan. $45p (-47 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsic.html
Play Date: 12/09/2002
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$34; +0.21; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Plunged lower to 33.20 early Friday, but PFGC managed a comeback, turning fractionally positive by the close as volume moved higher. After three selling sessions this was most likely a reflex bounce and we will still let the stock work for us but the volume has us careful here.
Volume: 380.4K Avg Volume: 446K
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=475K Target=$31.75 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: PGU MG - Jan. $35p (-50 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Our stock summary table program developed a bad case of the pre-holiday bah humbug's and crashed. We have been working all day on it but the fix is not quite in and thus we cannot generate the summary table. We apologize for this and are working to have it up and running for Monday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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