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12/23/02 Investment House Alerts Report
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IH Alert Subscribers:
* * HOLIDAY SCHEDULE* * *
Monday: Market stats summary and play tables
Tuesday, Wednesday: No reports
Thursday: Market summary, best plays
Saturday: Full report
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts issued Monday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: None issued
Trailing stops issued: None issued
Stop alerts issued: BMRN
THE MARKET
Nasdaq
Techs were in the greatest demand Monday, but it was not overwhelming. The buying interest pushed techs over the 50 day MVA, but they still could not break over the short term MVA, the roadblock for Nasdaq since it rolled down from 1500 in early December. Not a strong session, but a session where techs were able to hold at support (1357) and recover.
Stats: +18.64 points (+1.37%) to close at 1381.69
Volume: 1.196B (-40.08%)
Up Volume: 864M (-356M)
Down Volume: 311M (-369M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.32 to 1
New Highs: 65 (+11)
New Lows: 60 (-7)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$compq.html
S&P 500/NYSE
Managed a meek gain, but ran out of gas at the 18 day MVA on the high (902.43) and closed below the 50 day MVA. As with the Nasdaq, the short term MVA are pushing the SP500 around like a 90 pound weakling right now. We cannot expect a lot of volume this week, but you would like to see it rise if there was low volume.
Stats: +1.62 points (+0.18%) to close at 897.38
NYSE Volume: 1.081B (-37.99%)
Up Volume: 531M (-796M)
Down Volume: 546M (+118M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.02 to 1
New Highs: 68 (+6)
New Lows: 47 (+4)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$spx.html
DJ30:
Could not hold the gain after it too tapped the 18 day MVA on the high (8554.04) and fell back to close below the 50 day MVA. It was not a bad session, just not encouraging when the indexes cannot put together a rise when there is no volume in the market.
Stats: -18.03 points (-0.21%) to close at 8493.29
Volume: 1.081B (-37.99%)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$indu.html
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1381.69
Resistance: The 10 day MVA (1382) and the 18 day MVA (1391). The August high at 1427 is the focal point. The 200 day MVA (1462). Price resistance at 1500. 1574, the May low, is next.
Support: The 50 day MVA (1373). 1357.09, the October 1998 bear market low is still holding. July, August, and September interim highs at 1345. Some price support at 1300.
S&P 500: Closed at 897.38
Resistance: The simple and exponential 50 day MVA (900), and the top of the late October consolidation range at 899. The July, August and September interim highs at 909 to 911. 921 is some price resistance. The early November high at 925.66 and key resistance. Price resistance at 950. 965, the September 2001 closing low along with the August 2002 high.
Support: The bottom of the October consolidation range at 875 is some price support. The September 2000/May 2001 downtrend line at 854. 850 to 855 (the October 1997 and Q2 1998 lows). The March down trendline at 832.
Dow: Closed at 8493.29
Resistance: The October high at 8500 is some resistance that has not been totally cleared. The exponential 50 day MVA (8512); simple at 8525. The top of the recent range at 8630. The late July and early September interim high at 8726 to 8762.14 (8745 closing). The early November high at 8800 is key. A range of resistance from 9000 on up to 9050.
Support: 8250, the bottom of the October consolidation range. Then 8000.
Economic Calendar
12-23-02
Personal Income, November (8:30): 0.3% actual, 0.2% expected, 0.3% October (revised from 0.1%).
Personal Spending, November (8:30): 0.5% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior.
12-24-02
Durable goods orders, November (8:30): 0.9% expected, 2.4% prior.
12-26-02
Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 400K expected, 433K prior.
12-27-02
Michigan sentiment revision, December (9:45): 86.5 expected, 87.0 prior.
New home sales, November (10:00): 1M expected, 1.007M prior.
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THE PLAYS:
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 306.02 +8.05 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Led the market Monday but still below the 50 day MVA.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 31.47 +0.86 32.05 38.45 305K 800K 30.35
Current.
AIG 12/18 Put 59.41 +0.34 58.55 54 4.6M 7M 60.45
Current. Tried to rally but failed and turned back down when it hit the 18 day MVA.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.18 +0.18 9.86 11.85 162K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.18 +0.18 7.28 9.75 162K 200K 8.94
Current.
AMLN 12/12 A Wedge 17.55 +0.48 18.75 22.75 766K 750K 17.25
Buy Not Hit. Not a bad move and not bad volume.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 22.24 +0.31 22.85 29.65 4.4M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 22.24 +0.31 20.32 24.38 4.4M 10M 21.75
Current.
ANT 12/11 Put 23.25 +0.95 22.45 20 139K 200K 23.55
Current.
ATRS 11/23 A Wedge 14 +0.46 14.05 18 198K 200K 13.07
Buy Not Hit. Up off the 18 day MVA on strong, above average volume. Very close to the breakout.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.01 +0.98 21 25 1.2M 500K 19.53
Current. Up yet again on big volume.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.01 +0.98 15.65 25 1.2M 177K 19.53
Current.
AVP 11/25 Cup hdl 530.8 +0.56 52.94 61 960K 1.8M 51.35
Current. Starting up off the 18 day MVA.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 13.41 -0.34 13.75 16.55 154K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued.
BER 11/13 Cup hdl 38.91 -0.34 38.4 45 211K 306K 38.35
Current.
BMRN 11/21 BO 6.95 -0.35 7.95 11 353K 750K 7.29
Exited.
BSX 10/19 Test BO 44.21 +0.03 37.75 45.75 1.7M 3.3M 41.94
Current.
BWS 12/17 Cup hdl 25.52 -0.48 26.35 31.65 135K 165K 23.94
Current.
CEPH 12/14 Put 52.16 +0.99 49.19 45.51 1M 2M 50.65
Buy Not Hit.
CNMD 12/09 Put 19.39 +0.3 17.97 15.75 131K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.25 +0.23 24.75 29.74 307K 581K 22.88
New.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.25 +0.23 23.65 28 307K 581K 22.25
Current.
DAKT 12/19 Cup hdl 14.05 -0.05 14.54 17.45 201K 150K 13.52
Buy Not Hit. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.41 -0.02 4.62 5.65 240K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Hit. Good action on the 10 day MVA.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 49.66 +0.66 49.11 56.55 614K 1M 47.25
Current. Continuing its very good recovery.
ESPD 12/19 Test BO 17.75 0 17.81 21.45 410K 675K 16.11
Buy Not Hit.
EXPE 11/30 A Wedge 70 +1.57 78.25 88 1.5M 3.2M 72.77
Current. UP off the 50 day MVA as it works through the bigger handle.
FOX 11/05 Cup hdl 26.35 +0.65 27.15 32.45 1.7M 1.5M 25.25
Current.
GTK 10/31 Cup hdl 29.15 +0.5 26.15 30 619K 900K 26.45
Current.
GYMB 09/18 Cup hdl 17.8 -0.77 19.64 22.45 1.3M 586K 18.27
Current.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 56.5 -0.21 61.6 70 123K 488K 59.85
Current.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 8.58 +0.08 8.85 11.35 1.7M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit.
HSIC 12/09 Put 45.83 +1.11 44.15 40 662K 667K 46.05
IBM 12/04 Test 50 80.26 +0.47 84.94 94.94 5.9M 12M 78.99
Current. Trying to move up off the 50 day MVA.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 80.26 +0.47 78.45 88 5.9M 12M 82.24
Current.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 6.55 -0.09 6.65 8.55 49K 165K 6.06
Current.
IDXC 12/02 Cup hdl 17.69 +0.14 17.65 21.25 127K 163K 16.85
Current. Still forming up very well.
IGEN 12/19 Test BO 44.42 +2.46 43.05 49.55 524K 450K 40.04
Blasted higher on volume!
IGEN 11/16 DB hdl 44.42 +2.46 38.81 45 524K 300K 40.15
Current.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.97 -0.09 3.22 4.35 17K 145K 3.32
Current.
LMLP 12/07 Cup hdl 13.78 +0.04 10.75 12.96 128K 135K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
LMLP 11/23 Cup hdl 13.78 +0.04 9.75 14.25 128K 135K 12.25
Current.
LOOK 12/22 Cup hdl 2.7 -0.01 2.94 4.95 472K 950K 2.58
Buy Not Hit.
LXK 10/29 Cup hdl 62.57 +0.66 61 72 729K 2.2M 62.48
Current.
MATK 12/04 Test BO 23.32 +1.38 23.39 27.94 635K 300K 21.85
Current. Keeps on running on solid volume.
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 16.4 +0.38 17.05 20.55 521K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 31.05 +0.87 31.55 38 1.3M 5M 28.85
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 54 +0.96 56.61 62.75 24M 67M 54.45
MSN 12/21 Test BO 5.4 -0.08 5.92 7.45 125K 150K 5.19
New buy point. Tightening up very well.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 5.4 -0.08 4.85 6.35 125K 150K 4.51
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 5.4 -0.08 4.15 5.68 125K 150K 4.51
Current.
MVL 11/04 BO 8.7 +0.12 8.74 10.75 196K 400K 8.35
Current. Got some volume up off the 50 day MVA.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 46.86 +2.61 44.85 51.75 1M 1.1M 44.05
Current. Good news on a drug sends it higher.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 16.87 +0.74 16.69 20.15 562K 1.8M 15.45
Buy Not Issued. Moving but volume was kind of light. If it continues to move from here can take a partial position Tuesday.
NTES 12/19 Test BO 13.05 +0.97 12 14.45 962K 550K 10.94
Current.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 13.19 +0.24 13.05 16.15 9.6M 35M 11.35
Current. Still holding up well above the short term MVA.
NXTL 11/12 Test 50 13.19 +0.24 12.15 16.15 9.6M 4.5M 11.35
Current.
PFGC 12/09 Put 33.72 -0.28 33.97 31.75 269K 475K 34.75
Current. Struggling at 34.
PIXR 11/20 BO 57.62 +0.12 57.85 66 1.3M 775K 57.65
Current. Stemmed the tide a bit, holding again at 56.75 on the low.
PNRA 11/07 Cup hdl 35.94 +0.73 34.38 39.75 405K 1.2M 34.12
Current. Moving up over the short term MVA.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 27.1 +0.3 25.51 30.55 271K 450K 26.25
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 38.99 +1.31 39.15 48 9.7M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit. Good performance.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.99 +1.31 40.85 50 9.7M 18M 37.99
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.99 +1.31 34.78 42 9.7M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 38.51 +1.21 41.4 50 6M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 38.51 +1.21 36.48 0 6M 12M 37
Current.
RIMM 12/22 Put 13.68 +0.62 12.94 9.95 1.3M 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued. Sold off and recovered over the 50 day MVA.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.63 +0.47 17.35 20.75 186K 225K 16.95
Current. Moving up some.
RINO 08/28 Cup hdl 17.63 +0.47 13.8 20 186K 300K 16.95
Current.
ROK 12/14 Cup hdl 20.5 -0.18 21.89 26.25 627K 1M 19.95
Current.
SAY 12/12 Cup hdl 13.07 -0.03 13.48 16.98 47K 255K 12.54
Buy Not Hit.
SCIO 12/03 Cup hdl 33.77 +0.31 33.05 39.65 502K 1.6M 30.74
Buy Not Issued.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 26.45 +0.5 26.7 32.45 155 188K 24.25
Current. Actually moved up on some rising volume.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.85 +0.5 5.58 7.21 2.2M 950K 4.97
Current. Still surging.
SYK 12/21 Rv H&S 6.08 -0.32 67.53 77.62 848K 1.2M 62.84
Buy Not Hit. Good volume and close to a breakout.
TTEK 12/17 Test BO 12.72 -0.12 14.01 16.85 193K 600K 13.03
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.95 +0.55 16.25 19.65 577K 1M 15.11
Current. Nice performance.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.75 -0.08 9.68 11.75 194K 345K 9
Current. Holding up very well, testing the 18 day MVA on the low and bouncing.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.25 +0.25 17.65 21.45 88K 295K 16.21
Current. Looks solid.
VAR 12/18 Rv H&S 49.64 -0.74 50.25 58 524K 700K 48.05
Current.
VRNT 11/23 Cup hdl 16.56 -1.29 15.85 19.15 181K 113K 16.45
Current. Looked good but then broke the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 17.77 +0.81 19.76 20 6.5M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
VZ 12/04 Cup hdl 39.9 -0.1 41 47.5 6.7M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit. Still looking solid.
VZ 11/23 Cup hdl 39.9 -0.1 41 45 6.7M 11M 37.55
Current.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 39.9 -0.1 34.75 42 6.7M 10M 37.55
Current.
WFR 11/14 Cup hdl 8.07 +0.1 8.45 11 78K 325K 8.12
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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