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12/23/02 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
* * HOLIDAY SCHEDULE * * *
Monday: Market stats summary and play tables
Tuesday, Wednesday: No reports
Thursday: Market summary, best plays
Saturday: Full report
MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts issued Monday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: None issued
Trailing stop alerts: None issued
Stop alerts: MEOH; BMRN
To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdly.htm
THE MARKET
Nasdaq
Techs were in the greatest demand Monday, but it was not overwhelming. The buying interest pushed techs over the 50 day MVA, but they still could not break over the short term MVA, the roadblock for Nasdaq since it rolled down from 1500 in early December. Not a strong session, but a session where techs were able to hold at support (1357) and recover.
Stats: +18.64 points (+1.37%) to close at 1381.69
Volume: 1.196B (-40.08%)
Up Volume: 864M (-356M)
Down Volume: 311M (-369M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.32 to 1
New Highs: 65 (+11)
New Lows: 60 (-7)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$compq.html
S&P 500/NYSE
Managed a meek gain, but ran out of gas at the 18 day MVA on the high (902.43) and closed below the 50 day MVA. As with the Nasdaq, the short term MVA are pushing the SP500 around like a 90 pound weakling right now. We cannot expect a lot of volume this week, but you would like to see it rise if there was low volume.
Stats: +1.62 points (+0.18%) to close at 897.38
NYSE Volume: 1.081B (-37.99%)
Up Volume: 531M (-796M)
Down Volume: 546M (+118M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.02 to 1
New Highs: 68 (+6)
New Lows: 47 (+4)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$spx.html
DJ30:
Could not hold the gain after it too tapped the 18 day MVA on the high (8554.04) and fell back to close below the 50 day MVA. It was not a bad session, just not encouraging when the indexes cannot put together a rise when there is no volume in the market.
Stats: -18.03 points (-0.21%) to close at 8493.29
Volume: 1.081B (-37.99%)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$indu.html
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1381.69
Resistance: The 10 day MVA (1382) and the 18 day MVA (1391). The August high at 1427 is the focal point. The 200 day MVA (1462). Price resistance at 1500. 1574, the May low, is next.
Support: The 50 day MVA (1373). 1357.09, the October 1998 bear market low is still holding. July, August, and September interim highs at 1345. Some price support at 1300.
S&P 500: Closed at 897.38
Resistance: The simple and exponential 50 day MVA (900), and the top of the late October consolidation range at 899. The July, August and September interim highs at 909 to 911. 921 is some price resistance. The early November high at 925.66 and key resistance. Price resistance at 950. 965, the September 2001 closing low along with the August 2002 high.
Support: The bottom of the October consolidation range at 875 is some price support. The September 2000/May 2001 downtrend line at 854. 850 to 855 (the October 1997 and Q2 1998 lows). The March down trendline at 832.
Dow: Closed at 8493.29
Resistance: The October high at 8500 is some resistance that has not been totally cleared. The exponential 50 day MVA (8512); simple at 8525. The top of the recent range at 8630. The late July and early September interim high at 8726 to 8762.14 (8745 closing). The early November high at 8800 is key. A range of resistance from 9000 on up to 9050.
Support: 8250, the bottom of the October consolidation range. Then 8000.
Economic Calendar
12-23-02
Personal Income, November (8:30): 0.3% actual, 0.2% expected, 0.3% October (revised from 0.1%).
Personal Spending, November (8:30): 0.5% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior.
12-24-02
Durable goods orders, November (8:30): 0.9% expected, 2.4% prior.
12-26-02
Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 400K expected, 433K prior.
12-27-02
Michigan sentiment revision, December (9:45): 86.5 expected, 87.0 prior.
New home sales, November (10:00): 1M expected, 1.007M prior.
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CONTINUING/WATCHLIST: These are stocks that are current plays (the buy point hit), waiting for the buy point to be hit (buy not hit), or buy not made for various reasons (buy alert not issued). The date references the date the play first appeared on the report. Pivot is the buy point.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 306.02 +8.05 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Led the market Monday but still below the 50 day MVA.
AIG 12/18 Put 59.41 +0.34 58.55 54 4.6M 7M 60.45
Current. Tried to rally but failed and turned back down when it hit the 18 day MVA.
ALN 12/07 Test BO 10.18 +0.18 9.86 11.85 162K 412K 9.17
ALN 11/09 Test BO 10.18 +0.18 7.28 9.75 162K 200K 8.94
Current.
AMZN 11/30 Test BO 22.24 +0.31 22.85 29.65 4.4M 10M 21.25
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 10/21 Cup hdl 22.24 +0.31 20.32 24.38 4.4M 10M 21.75
Current.
ANT 12/11 Put 23.25 +0.95 22.45 20 139K 200K 23.55
Current.
ARB 12/22 Cup 34 -0.1 35.15 39.85 75K 155K 32.65
Buy Not Hit.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.01 +0.98 21 25 1.2M 500K 19.53
Current. Up yet again on big volume.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.01 +0.98 15.65 25 1.2M 177K 19.53
Current.
BCGI 12/19 Test 50 13.41 -0.34 13.75 16.55 154K 250K 12.65
Buy Not Issued.
BCGI 10/07 Cup hdl 13.41 -0.34 11.25 14 154K 250K 10.95
BEAS 12/19 Test BO 12.5 +0.35 11.77 14.74 10M 16M 10.75
Current. Another solid session.
BMRN 11/21 BO 6.95 -0.35 7.95 11 353K 750K 7.29
Exited.
BRCM 11/16 BO 16.19 +0.35 15.9 20 4.9M 15M 14.79
Current.
C 12/19 A Wedge 37.68 -0.46 38.05 46 14M 25M 35.39
Current. Suffered some on news, but nothing we think will kill it.
CCK 11/21 BO 8.59 +0.19 8.6 11 882K 1.8M 7.74
Current.
CGX 12/03 Cup hdl 23.05 -0.6 22 26.45 53K 65K 21.94
Current.
CNMD 12/09 Put 19.39 +0.3 17.97 15.75 131K 220K 19.25
Buy Not Hit.
CPWM 11/13 Cup hdl 28.82 -0.83 31.05 36.45 199K 471K 29.55
Current.
CRAY 11/30 A Wedge 7.46 -0.18 7.38 8.85 619K 346K 6.55
Current. Holding up well on the 10 day MVA.
CRAY 10/21 Cup 7.46 -0.18 4.28 8 619K 346K 6.88
Current.
CUB 07/06 Cup 18.56 -0.09 0 0 59K 0 0
DANKY 12/17 Cup hdl 4.41 -0.02 4.62 5.65 240K 560K 4.25
Buy Not Hit. Good action on the 10 day MVA.
DSCO 12/07 Test BO 2.83 0 3.04 4.05 15K 110K 2.83
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 70.1 +0.26 69.45 77 3.5M 12M 67.25
Current. Still working very well.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 70.1 +0.26 62.45 71 3.5M 12M 67.25
Current.
ECL 10/30 Cup hdl 49.66 +0.66 49.11 56.55 614K 1M 47.25
Current. Continuing its very good recovery.
ESRX 12/18 Put 48.14 +1.28 47.65 44 1M 1.5M 49.05
Buy Not Hit.
FLML 12/05 Test BO 4.15 +0.01 4.05 5.97 99K 100K 4.05
Current.
FOX 11/05 Cup hdl 26.35 +0.65 27.15 32.45 1.7M 1.5M 25.25
Current.
GPS 12/16 Cup hdl 14.8 -1.05 16.81 20.15 8M 9M 15.63
Buy Not Hit.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 30.33 +1.38 22.34 30 916K 198K 26.45
Current.
GYMB 09/18 Cup hdl 17.8 -0.77 19.64 22.45 1.3M 586K 18.27
Current.
HLTH 12/12 Cup hdl 8.58 +0.08 8.85 11.35 1.7M 3.1M 8.23
Buy Not Hit.
HOTT 11/23 A Wedge 23 -1.02 23.9 28 1.3M 1.5M 21.81
Current.
JBHT 12/12 A Wedge 29.21 +0.1 30.18 35.25 379K 725K 28.07
Buy Not Hit. Still looks solid.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.97 -0.09 3.22 4.35 17K 145K 3.32
Current.
LLY 12/09 Test 18 64.45 +1.2 66.25 75 2.4M 6.2M 61.61
Buy Not Hit.
LMLP 12/07 Cup hdl 13.78 +0.04 10.75 12.96 128K 135K 12.25
Buy Not Issued.
LMLP 11/23 Cup hdl 13.78 +0.04 9.75 14.25 128K 135K 12.25
Current. Flying plateau forming.
LOOK 12/22 Cup hdl 2.7 -0.01 2.94 4.95 472K 950K 2.58
Buy Not Hit. Looks super.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 37.49 -0.87 0 0 3.5M 0 0
MDCO 12/05 Test BO 16.4 +0.38 17.05 20.55 521K 800K 15.35
Buy Not Hit.
MEOH 11/04 BO 8.07 -0.42 9.03 10.88 186K 375K 8.30
Exited.
MRK 12/21 Test 50 56.65 +0.29 58.05 67 6.4M 9.5M 55.94
Buy Not Hit.
MRK 12/07 Test BO 56.65 +0.29 59.15 67 6.4M 9.5M 55.94
Current.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 54 +0.96 56.61 62.75 24M 67M 54.45
MVL 11/04 BO 8.7 +0.12 8.74 10.75 196K 400K 8.35
Current. Got some volume up off the 50 day MVA.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 98 +2.55 0 0 1.7M 1.7M 0
NTES 12/19 Test BO 13.05 +0.97 12 14.45 962K 550K 10.94
Current. Surging higher on volume.
NXTL 11/19 Test BO 13.19 +0.24 13.05 16.15 9.6M 35M 11.35
Current. Still holding up well above the short term MVA.
OSTK 11/16 Cup hdl 14.43 +0.79 10.65 16.05 96K 125K 12.75
Current. Retail news did not hurt it.
OSTK 11/16 Test BO 14.43 +0.79 14.48 18 96K 125K 12.55
Current.
PENN 12/14 Put 16.65 +0.46 16.55 14 310K 300K 17.65
Current. Low volume move up to the short term MVA.
PG 09/21 Test 18 87.69 +0.01 91.55 103 3M 5.5M 89.45
PIXR 11/20 BO 57.62 +0.12 57.85 66 1.3M 775K 57.65
Current. Stemmed the tide a bit, holding again at 56.75 on the low.
PPD 11/14 Test BO 27.1 +0.3 25.51 30.55 271K 450K 26.25
Current.
PRA 12/11 Cup hdl 21.1 +0.06 20.26 24.32 181K 145K 19.05
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 38.99 +1.31 39.15 48 9.7M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit. Good performance.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.99 +1.31 40.85 50 9.7M 18M 37.99
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.99 +1.31 34.78 42 9.7M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 38.51 +1.21 41.4 50 6M 25M 39.88
QLGC 08/17 CCall 38.51 +1.21 36.48 0 6M 12M 37
Current.
RCII 08/24 Test 18 50.47 +1.42 58.02 66.45 567K 701K 53.96
RIMM 12/22 Put 13.68 +0.62 12.94 9.95 1.3M 1.7M 14.04
Buy Not Issued.
ROK 12/14 Cup hdl 20.5 -0.18 21.89 26.25 627K 1M 19.95
Current.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 26.45 +0.5 26.7 32.45 155 188K 24.25
Current. Actually moved up on some rising volume.
SFNT 11/06 Cup hdl 26.45 +0.5 20.78 25 155 188K 25.45
Current.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.85 +0.5 5.58 7.21 2.2M 950K 4.97
Current.
SRCL 10/19 Cup 32.01 -0.03 35.25 40 328K 787K 32.78
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 36.65 -2.47 45.44 51.44 378K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 36.65 -2.47 39.05 46.85 378K 235K 42.05
Current.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.95 +0.55 16.25 19.65 577K 1M 15.11
Current. Nice performance.
UNTD 11/02 Cup hdl 16.95 +0.55 13.3 16 577K 1M 14.75
Current.
UPL 10/19 A Wedge 9.75 -0.08 9.68 11.75 194K 345K 9
Current. Holding up very well, testing the 18 day MVA on the low and bouncing.
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.25 +0.25 17.65 21.45 88K 295K 16.21
Current. Looks solid.
UTIW 12/17 Rv H&S 25.69 -0.41 24.56 29 149K 175K 23.74
Current.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 17.77 +0.81 19.76 20 6.5M 8.5M 17.45
Current.
WM 07/06 Cup 34.97 -0.08 0 0 3.1M 5.5M 0
WSM 12/07 BO 26.77 -0.78 28.15 33 982K 1.8M 26.18
Current.
XTO 12/18 Flat 26.24 +0.06 25.65 30.75 914K 1.1M 24.45
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 17.73 +0.65 17.32 22.75 7.2M 20M 16.11
Buy Not Issued.
ZQK 11/05 DB hdl 25.64 -1.66 25.22 30.25 280K 425K 25.74
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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