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12/23/02 Technical Traders Report
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Technical Traders Report Subscribers:
* *HOLIDAY SCHEDULE* * *
Monday: Market stats summary and play tables
Tuesday, Wednesday: No reports
Thursday: Market summary, best plays
Saturday: Full report
Market closes at 1:00ET Tuesday. Closed Wednesday.
MARKET ALERTS
Targets hit alerts issued Monday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: None issued
Trailing stops issued: None issued
Stop alerts issued: BMRN
You can sign up for Technical Trader alerts at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertttr.htm
THE MARKET
Nasdaq
Techs were in the greatest demand Monday, but it was not overwhelming. The buying interest pushed techs over the 50 day MVA, but they still could not break over the short term MVA, the roadblock for Nasdaq since it rolled down from 1500 in early December. Not a strong session, but a session where techs were able to hold at support (1357) and recover.
Stats: +18.64 points (+1.37%) to close at 1381.69
Volume: 1.196B (-40.08%)
Up Volume: 864M (-356M)
Down Volume: 311M (-369M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.32 to 1
New Highs: 65 (+11)
New Lows: 60 (-7)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$compq.html
S&P 500/NYSE
Managed a meek gain, but ran out of gas at the 18 day MVA on the high (902.43) and closed below the 50 day MVA. As with the Nasdaq, the short term MVA are pushing the SP500 around like a 90 pound weakling right now. We cannot expect a lot of volume this week, but you would like to see it rise if there was low volume.
Stats: +1.62 points (+0.18%) to close at 897.38
NYSE Volume: 1.081B (-37.99%)
Up Volume: 531M (-796M)
Down Volume: 546M (+118M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.02 to 1
New Highs: 68 (+6)
New Lows: 47 (+4)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$spx.html
DJ30:
Could not hold the gain after it too tapped the 18 day MVA on the high (8554.04) and fell back to close below the 50 day MVA. It was not a bad session, just not encouraging when the indexes cannot put together a rise when there is no volume in the market.
Stats: -18.03 points (-0.21%) to close at 8493.29
Volume: 1.081B (-37.99%)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$indu.html
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1381.69
Resistance: The 10 day MVA (1382) and the 18 day MVA (1391). The August high at 1427 is the focal point. The 200 day MVA (1462). Price resistance at 1500. 1574, the May low, is next.
Support: The 50 day MVA (1373). 1357.09, the October 1998 bear market low is still holding. July, August, and September interim highs at 1345. Some price support at 1300.
S&P 500: Closed at 897.38
Resistance: The simple and exponential 50 day MVA (900), and the top of the late October consolidation range at 899. The July, August and September interim highs at 909 to 911. 921 is some price resistance. The early November high at 925.66 and key resistance. Price resistance at 950. 965, the September 2001 closing low along with the August 2002 high.
Support: The bottom of the October consolidation range at 875 is some price support. The September 2000/May 2001 downtrend line at 854. 850 to 855 (the October 1997 and Q2 1998 lows). The March down trendline at 832.
Dow: Closed at 8493.29
Resistance: The October high at 8500 is some resistance that has not been totally cleared. The exponential 50 day MVA (8512); simple at 8525. The top of the recent range at 8630. The late July and early September interim high at 8726 to 8762.14 (8745 closing). The early November high at 8800 is key. A range of resistance from 9000 on up to 9050.
Support: 8250, the bottom of the October consolidation range. Then 8000.
Economic Calendar
12-23-02
Personal Income, November (8:30): 0.3% actual, 0.2% expected, 0.3% October (revised from 0.1%).
Personal Spending, November (8:30): 0.5% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior.
12-24-02
Durable goods orders, November (8:30): 0.9% expected, 2.4% prior.
12-26-02
Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 400K expected, 433K prior.
12-27-02
Michigan sentiment revision, December (9:45): 86.5 expected, 87.0 prior.
New home sales, November (10:00): 1M expected, 1.007M prior.
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WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 12/07 Test 50 306.02 +8.05 335.15 385 0 0 313.94
Current. Led the market Monday but still below the 50 day MVA.
ADTN 12/10 Test 18 31.47 +0.86 32.05 38.45 305K 800K 30.35
Current. Looks ready to move up off the 18 day MVA.
AIG 12/18 Put 59.41 +0.34 58.55 54 4.6M 7M 60.45
Current. Tried to rally but failed and turned back down when it hit the 18 day MVA.
AMTD 12/19 A Wedge 5.35 -0.04 5.54 6.85 1M 165K 5.15
Buy Not Hit.
ANT 12/11 Put 23.25 +0.95 22.45 20 139K 200K 23.55
Current.
AVID 12/07 Test 18 23.01 +0.98 21 25 1.2M 500K 19.53
Current. Up yet again on big volume.
AVID 10/30 Cup hdl 23.01 +0.98 15.65 25 1.2M 177K 19.53
Current.
AVO 12/16 A Wedge 12.05 +0.11 12.06 14.45 103K 210K 11.22
Buy Not Hit. Looked at it hard Tuesday as it rose on stronger volume.
AVP 11/25 Cup hdl 530.8 +0.56 52.94 61 960K 1.8M 51.35
Current.
BER 11/13 Cup hdl 38.91 -0.34 38.4 45 211K 306K 38.35
Current.
BOH 10/26 Cup hdl 30.58 +0.04 29.94 36 122K 427K 29.61
Current.
BRCM 08/17 CCall 16.19 +0.35 19.2 19.8 4.9M 9M 17.25
Current.
BSTE 12/11 A Wedge 36.07 +1.09 34 41.25 364K 900K 31.62
Current.
CEPH 12/14 Put 52.16 +0.99 49.19 45.51 1M 2M 50.65
Buy Not Hit.
COLM 11/13 DB hdl 45.92 -0.68 41.96 48.45 369K 389K 44.25
Current.
CVD 12/21 Cup hdl 24.25 +0.23 24.75 29.74 307K 581K 22.88
New.
CVD 11/05 Test BO 24.25 +0.23 23.65 28 307K 581K 22.25
Current.
CVH 12/09 Put 30.2 +0.95 29.04 26 430K 820K 30.24
Current.
DAKT 12/19 Cup hdl 14.05 -0.05 14.54 17.45 201K 150K 13.52
Buy Not Hit. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
GPN 12/19 BO 31.8 +0.3 31.55 38 176K 225K 39.88
Current. Has had good volume & that helped keep it moving Tuesday.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 30.33 +1.38 22.34 30 916K 198K 26.45
Current. Surging higher on strong volume.
HAR 11/21 Test 18 56.5 -0.21 61.6 70 123K 488K 59.85
Current.
HD 09/16 Test 50 24.45 -0.38 34.55 38 12M 10M 32.13
Current.
HSIC 12/09 Put 45.83 +1.11 44.15 40 662K 667K 46.05
IBM 12/04 Test 50 80.26 +0.47 84.94 94.94 5.9M 12M 78.99
Current. Trying to move up off the 50 day MVA.
IBM 11/11 Test 50 80.26 +0.47 78.45 88 5.9M 12M 82.24
Current.
IDBE 12/16 DB hdl 6.55 -0.09 6.65 8.55 49K 165K 6.06
Current. Looking solid over the 10 day MVA.
JAKK 12/22 Put 13.85 +0.49 13.24 11 127K 325K 14.65
Buy Not Issued.
LBIX 10/14 Cup hdl 2.97 -0.09 3.22 4.35 17K 145K 3.32
Current.
LUK 11/16 Cup hdl 38.1 -0.01 38.51 44.45 83K 125K 37.97
Current.
MBT 12/22 Cup hdl 38.32 -0.02 40.06 47.96 90K 255K 37.26
Buy Not Hit. Holding up very well at the 10 day MVA.
MERQ 12/11 Test BO 31.05 +0.87 31.55 38 1.3M 5M 28.85
Current.
MRCY 12/14 Pennant 31.83 -0.03 31.65 37.85 99K 350K 29.43
Buy Not Hit. Looks to be massing for the move.
MSFT 12/04 Test 18 54 +0.96 56.61 62.75 24M 67M 54.45
MSFT 11/13 Test BO 54 +0.96 56.15 62.55 24M 50M 55.74
Current.
MSFT 10/16 Test BO 54 +0.96 52.35 59 24M 50M 55.74
Current.
MSN 12/21 Test BO 5.4 -0.08 5.92 7.45 125K 150K 5.19
New buy point. Tightening up very well.
MSN 12/04 Cup hdl 5.4 -0.08 4.85 6.35 125K 150K 4.51
Current.
MSN 11/23 Cup hdl 5.4 -0.08 4.15 5.68 125K 150K 4.51
Current.
NBIX 10/08 Rv H&S 46.86 +2.61 44.85 51.75 1M 1.1M 44.05
Current. Good news on a drug sends it higher.
NSCN 12/22 Pennant 16.87 +0.74 16.69 20.15 562K 1.8M 15.45
Buy Not Issued. Moving but volume was kind of light. If it continues to move from here can take a partial position Tuesday.
NTII 12/22 Test BO 6.13 -0.35 6.74 8.25 102K 90K 6.18
Buy Not Hit.
PCLE 10/17 BO 14.37 +0.34 11.51 13.82 680K 800K 12.94
Current.
PFGC 12/09 Put 33.72 -0.28 33.97 31.75 269K 475K 34.75
Current.
PIXR 11/20 BO 57.62 +0.12 57.85 66 1.3M 775K 57.65
Current. Stemmed the tide a bit, holding again at 56.75 on the low.
PKTR 12/11 Test 18 6.82 -0.37 8.34 10.55 153K 335K 7.55
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounded. Forming a bigger handle here.
PVSW 11/23 Cup 4.05 -0.09 4.27 5.35 55K 125K 3.97
Current.
QCOM 12/21 Test 50 38.99 +1.31 39.15 48 9.7M 18M 36.41
Buy Not Hit. Good performance.
QCOM 12/04 Test 18 38.99 +1.31 40.85 50 9.7M 18M 37.99
Current.
QCOM 11/07 Test BO 38.99 +1.31 34.78 42 9.7M 18M 38.14
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 38.51 +1.21 41.4 50 6M 25M 39.88
RDEN 12/17 Cup hdl 14.82 +0.27 15.39 18.45 130K 185K 14.31
Buy Not Hit.
RINO 10/24 Test BO 17.63 +0.47 17.35 20.75 186K 225K 16.95
Current. Moving up some, trying to improve.
RINO 08/28 Cup hdl 17.63 +0.47 13.8 20 186K 300K 16.95
Current.
SAFC 12/07 A Wedge 35.84 +0.03 36.69 41 734K 1.5M 34.12
Buy Not Hit. Still looking super.
SAY 12/12 Cup hdl 13.07 -0.03 13.48 16.98 47K 255K 12.54
Buy Not Hit. Holding up well.
SFNT 12/16 Test 50 26.45 +0.5 26.7 32.45 155 188K 24.25
Current. Actually moved up on some rising volume.
SINA 12/04 Test BO 6.85 +0.5 5.58 7.21 2.2M 950K 4.97
Current.
SJM 12/02 Test BO 39.43 +0.19 40.15 48 228K 476K 37.65
Buy Not Hit.
TARO 12/18 Cup hdl 38.51 +0.03 39.05 46.85 152K 575K 36.32
Buy Not Hit. Another very nice, tight doji on the 18 day MVA. Just looking for a reason to rally.
TK 12/07 Cup hdl 41.39 -0.03 39.25 46.65 101K 235K 36.15
Buy Not Issued. Still looking for that test.
TMCS 11/26 Test BO 22.49 +0.21 26.45 31.75 306K 1.2M 24.61
Exited.
TSCO 12/07 Test 18 36.65 -2.47 45.44 51.44 378K 475K 42.26
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 10/16 Test BO 36.65 -2.47 39.05 46.85 378K 235K 42.05
Current.
TTEK 12/17 Test BO 12.72 -0.12 14.01 16.85 193K 600K 13.03
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 11/30 Test BO 16.95 +0.55 16.25 19.65 577K 1M 15.11
Current. Nice performance.
URBN 12/22 Put 22.49 -1.09 23.36 20.22 822K 500K 24.65
UTHR 11/12 DB hdl 17.25 +0.25 17.65 21.45 88K 295K 16.21
Current. Looks solid.
VIP 12/07 Test BO 33.2 +0.2 34.85 40 95K 300K 32.41
Buy Not Hit.
VIP 11/09 Test BO 33.2 +0.2 30.06 35 95K 285K 31.45
Current.
VZ 12/04 Cup hdl 39.9 -0.1 41 47.5 6.7M 11M 38.13
Buy Not Hit. Still looking solid.
VZ 11/23 Cup hdl 39.9 -0.1 41 45 6.7M 11M 37.55
Current.
VZ 10/10 Test 50 39.9 -0.1 34.75 42 6.7M 10M 37.55
Current.
WFR 11/14 Cup hdl 8.07 +0.1 8.45 11 78K 325K 8.12
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 17.73 +0.65 17.32 22.75 7.2M 20M 16.11
Buy Not Issued.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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